Bill has been following the inventory in different markets, and San Diego is faring much better than other areas. He is showing a 23.8% drop in new listings YoY, but last year was the record low. Look at the previous years:
September New Listings, San Diego County Detached and Attached Homes:
2005: 6,325
2006: 5,735
2007: 5,448
2008: 5,101
2009: 4,328
2010: 4,696
2011: 4,013
2012: 3,578
2013: 4,265
2014: 4,367
2015: 4,185
2016: 4,267
2017: 3,953
2018: 4,506
2019: 3,959
2020: 4,389
2021: 3,570
2022: 2,853
Everyone talks about the demand-side, but our market is being impacted by the lack of supply too.
Could there be demand that isn’t being satisfied because there aren’t more quality homes for sale listed by good agents at attractive prices?
I had 100+ people come to open house this weekend, and there were legitimate buyers in the group.
I wanted to show a house this weekend, and the showing instructions said to text the listing agent. I started via text on Wednesday, but literally never got a response, so I didn’t show it. The listing is still active today.
Higher rates haven’t changed the frustration of finding the right house, at the right price.
The inventory is probably going to dry up further and more sellers get convinced that now isn’t a good time to sell. With a tight selection of quality homes for sale, those who are willing to sell now aren’t going to be deterred from trying peak pricing, or close.
Example: My $1,800,000 listing in Aviara? This just popped up around the corner, priced at $2,295,000:
Those folks might sell, and they might not, but they should help me with mine! My point is that we are not seeing an increasing flow of new listings being priced lower and lower in an attempt to get out now. It’s actually quite the opposite.
Hat tip to just some guy for sending this in – an excerpt:
BEC scammers typically engage in what Alex calls a shotgun approach. They compile contact information for random players involved in any real estate transaction—lawyers, brokers, title agencies, mortgage lenders—then send mass phishing emails to this database, waiting for someone to take the bait.
In the email, the scammers might provide a link that leads to a website resembling the real estate agent or title company’s email login page. The duped individual will type out their credentials, which might lead to an error page. Most think nothing of it—perhaps it was merely an internet connection problem. They don’t realize they’ve sent their login information to the hacker, who now has access to their email and confidential company information. Critically, they are also able to track conversations about impending home sales with buyers, ultimately zeroing in on the specific deals they want to infiltrate.
That’s the easy part. What follows is complex social engineering, in which the scammers monitor correspondence about a specific transaction for months. Without tipping off anyone, they learn the minute details of a deal. When it becomes apparent that a down payment is about to be wired, they jump in with a fraudulent email to the buyer, pretending to give official instructions from the real estate or title agent: Please wire your money to this bank account. The email can be sent from the compromised account or from a fake one that looks almost identical to that of the agent in the deal. The unsuspecting buyer wires their life savings to a criminal.
Reports about this alarming scheme exploded during the pandemic, when home prices, bidding wars, and cash deals all rose. As transaction volume swelled, so did profits for real estate companies, lenders, and banks, and hackers smelled a growing opportunity. By targeting escrow wires, scammers are able to single out a particularly easy jackpot, a transaction involving multiple parties without proper internet security and the rare instance in which a giant sum of cash is sent in a single wire.
In 2020 and 2021 the FBI labeled BECs the costliest cyberthreat, accounting for reported losses of $4.2 billion, with real estate wire fraud becoming one of the most targeted sectors. “Those numbers are floors, not ceilings,” says Crane Hassold, director of threat intelligence at Abnormal Security, an email security company. “There’s a lot that doesn’t get reported.”
Wil Myers and his wife Maggie are out in downtown San Diego, buying shots for everyone in every bar they enter and thanking fans, high-fiving and celebrating. What a moment for the longest-tenured #Padres player. pic.twitter.com/MgwicXJ9n4
Many thanks to Gary Moyer, owner of our season tickets and the greatest friend a guy could ever have, for getting KR some recognition on the big board!
BJK, part-owner of the Dodgers, enjoyed the whole game and was very cordial about taking photos with fans. This was all I needed:
Longtime friend and fellow season-ticket holder Doug brought his daughter too:
We launched our Aviara listing with open houses on the weekend of September 17 & 18. Newer one-story homes built by Davidson might be the most popular homes around – if you can find one for sale.
Remarkably, there were two other sales of this floor plan this year. In March, there was a sale across the street that closed for $2,110,000, and another around the corner sold for $2,050,000 in June. Both made our $1,800,000 list price look attractive.
A few days later, we opened escrow at $2,100,000 cash.
Allegedly, the buyer was a recent widow in her 40s with two kids who was being represented by her mother who was in her 70s – who admitted to not being an active realtor for years. No problem, we will help you along the way to make sure we all get to the finish line.
Their home inspector mentioned a stain on a baseboard, and that a mold test would be in order.
Once that thought is out in the open, people will think the worst.
They hired a mold inspector who conducted the standard air sampling where they compare the mold counts in the air outdoors to samples taken inside. Those results came back clear – no mold. He also collected swab samples from under the toilets and sinks, and the one area did test positive:
The only mold found was on a single baseboard behind a toilet that measured 2+ on a scale of 1-4.
I told the buyer and the buyer’s agent that we regularly deal with mold remediation and have one of the best solutions available. Not only do we have a certified mold-remediation contractor, but we also have the county’s best mold tester who will give you great confidence that the problem has been eradicated.
The agent seemed to take it worse than the buyer, which led to their confession.
It turned out that the daughter was buying the house for her mother, the agent!
I knew I had a problem because people in their 70s aren’t as familiar with today’s more-complex set of variables of home buying. Back in the old days, we didn’t do home inspections, let alone have home inspectors who instill fear in buyers who are already skittish. I don’t mind suggesting further inspections, but have some bedside manner, for pete’s sake. Describe them in a way that you don’t scare the crap out of the buyers. In the days that passed between the home inspection and the actual mold results, you can bet that the buyer/agent imagined the very worst.
Her final statement? “I can’t handle the stress”.
The next day she sent over the signed cancellation form, with no explanation.
We completed the remediation, and now I get to convince another buyer that there isn’t a problem today.
How many other homes for sale have minor mold under a sink or toilet? Many? Most? Yet, the majority of homes sold don’t get tested for mold, so buyers never know what they are buying, or what lies ahead. But not here! We’ve done full remediation and it tested 100% clean!
I tell potential home buyers to keep looking because you never know when you will find the right house – which is the most important part of the equation. Most will convince themselves that it will be easier to find the right house if prices came down, and besides, the current crop isn’t that interesting.
To keep it simple, let’s just calculate how mortgage rates have changed the equation:
Purchase Price: $2,000,000
Loan Amount: $1,600,000
30-yr jumbo rate: 3%
Monthly pmt: $6,746
Buyers who expect the sellers to make up the entire difference with a lower sales price will have to wait until they can find a home that meets this description:
Purchase Price: $1,400,000
Loan Amount: $1,120,000
30-yr jumbo rate: 6%
Monthly pmt: $6,715
If home prices come down 30%, it will enable buyers to buy the same house for the same monthly payment – and with a $120,000 smaller down payment too. If it happened over the next five years, it means we only need to drop about 6% per year, and we’ve already dropped more than that in 2022.
Or let’s say you want to roll back to pre-pandemic pricing.
NSDCC homes that sold in February, 2020 closed at a median of $509/sf, and last month the median was $793/sf which means we’d need a 36% decline to get back to pre-pandemic pricing.
How are you going to play it?
Are you going to wait until you actually see homes selling for 30% to 36% off to get back into the game?
Are are you going to wait until rates come back to 3%?
Or do we acknowledge that the buyers who have more horsepower are going to jump back in sooner, and there’s not much chance of prices dropping the full 30% to 36%? The highly-motivated affluent folks will probably be satisfied with 20% off, and they will derail a full decline. It’s what happened in 2012.
Can you live with 20% off?
Because if you can, then you need to stay in the game.
If the #1 variable is buying the right house, then #2 is timing.
I think the affluent will be looking next spring, and if they find a suitable house, they are going to buy it. By then, some of the statistical pricing gauges will be showing 10% to 20% declines, either nationally or in isolated markets. Because the local pricing isn’t that nuanced and buyers just want a house, they will decide that’s close enough and go ahead with the purchase.
To support my suspicion, I’ll note that during the frenzy, it was the same mentality, just in reverse.
When people found the right house, they just paid whatever it took – even if it meant paying $500,000 to $1,000,000 over the list price! Nothing else mattered besides getting the right house.
Most buyers won’t believe their eyes, and the volume will be thin. But sellers will appreciate any momentum and be encouraged to price their home for about what they thought they could get, with not much discount. Buyers who want discounts will be relegated to scouring through the dent-and-scratch bin, or hope that moving during the off-season might be more fruitful. Great for them.
The Padres won the game they needed to win last night!
There are games on Friday and Saturday night at Petco Park, and you may be wondering if you should attend. The answer is YES, because we never know if we’ll get another chance.
It’s almost like today’s housing market. People are passing on opportunities to buy today because they think there’s always tomorrow.
I’ll tell my story.
I became a season-ticket holder in 1998, and in my very first season, the Padres went to the World Series!
I told Donna that this was the greatest decision we’ve ever made, and she can plan on going to the playoffs almost every year, and we’ll have several World Series to come!
Look how that turned out. Two playoff appearances in 2005 and 2006 and we lost six out of seven games – that’s it (plus 2020 with no fans).
Yes, it is going to be very expensive (StubHub charges a 28% fee), plus there will be fights in the stands, and riots in the streets. You won’t want to miss it!
I plan on being there. I’ll let you know how it goes!
For those of you who were here in 1984, this is a reminder of the craziness in Pacific Beach after we beat the Cubs to go to the World Series:
Here’s the 7,509sf home on La Jolla Farms that just sold for $18,450,000 cash, which was a whopping 6% below the list price. The market time was 12 days.
You can tell in this photo that the backyard was tired, but the rest of the one-story house looked fine. Even though there had not been any similar sales on this street since Alicia Keys paid $20,800,000 for an architectural gem back in 2019, it shows that when the affluent sees a house they like, they pay the man:
Sent to me by bulk email, and probably sent to all agents. The HOA fee is $913/month:
Explore the ultimate in luxury living with Grand Jefferson’s spectacular penthouse residence, where you can enjoy all the amenities of a sprawling estate home with none of the maintenance. Showcasing a total of 7,400 sq. ft. of private indoor/outdoor, smart home equipped living space, 792 Grand Ave is truly in a league of its own.
An entertainer’s paradise, tranquil retreat or both, this jaw-dropping 4-bedroom, 3.5-bathroom home embodies luxury at every turn. Perched upon Grand Jefferson’s top floor, the 3,418 sq. ft. single-story residence is crowned by a 2,000 sq. ft. rooftop terrace featuring dazzling 360-degree views of the ocean, mountains, and city lights. Totaling more than 4,000 sq. ft., the unparalleled outdoor space also includes a California room with fireplace, plus a raised terrace perfect for an alfresco kitchen and dining space just off the main living area.
Penthouse residents will further appreciate a private lobby with secure access system, a direct-access elevator, and a convenient separate storage unit perfect for bikes, surfboards and more. Secure, gated parking garage offers 2 spaces plus a 3rd car lift installed. Don’t miss this unique, one-of-a-kind opportunity catering to an ultimate luxury experience.
Instead of using the median sales price as a gauge, let’s look at the history of the median $/sf to help bring the size of the homes into the equation.
Thoughts:
I remember 2018 and 2019 being fairly flat and a bit of a struggle. Rates had been in the 3% to 4% range during the 2015-2017 period, and once they got back into the mid-to-high 4s in the summer of 2018, pricing hit the skids. Luckily, rates dropped under 4% in late-2019 which caused us to be optimistic about the selling season of 2020 – and you can see that pricing got off to a good start.
The Pandemic Stall caused a blip in April, 2020, but we recovered and charged into 2021. You could say that local pricing took off like a rocket, rising 25% in five months:
Jan 2021: $559/sf
Jun 2021: $697/sf
Today we are under where 2022 started, and it could get worse. However, the median for the 38 sales closed this month is an impressive $823/sf, which is 4% higher than last month.
But we have a long way to go!
Speaking of a long way to go, Rob Dawg wanted to stir it up, like most Dodger fans. We have been subject to endless taunting since making the playoffs, including Charlie Steiner suggesting that the Padres rivalry with the Dodgers would be like a nail having a rivalry with a hammer.
Just you wait!
Bob Melvin has engineered the greatest rope-a-dope since Muhammad Ali. Sacrificing the first game last night with Clevinger vs. Urias was ingenious, because Kershaw is washed up and due for a dud – and Darvish has been lights out.
The Padres win tonight, and then come home to the raucous crowd who hasn’t seen a playoff game in 16 years, and Petco Park will be rocking for Snellzilla. Then we got No-No-Joe for Saturday’s game and the Dodgers will have to bring back Urias early on three days rest and he won’t have enough.
This is the last chance to get on the Padres bandwagon!
Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google.
Jim & Donna Klinge helped us sell our home of 30 years in Ocean Hills. We were very happy with their service and would HIGHLY recommend them to anyone looking for an Honest, Knowledgeable, Skilled, Informed Efficient realty team. Both Jim & Donna were so helpful in different ways and complemented each others skills. Please refer to a more detailed review that we wrote on YELP. Thank You Both for all your help!!!
Jesse O'Hara
June 12, 2025
Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google.
A+ thank you
Lisa Tuomi
June 11, 2025
Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google.
Many years ago, we purchased a home in Carlsbad, using a realtor that was recommended to us - Jim Klinge. Fast forward to 2025, we recently had the privilege of selling 2 homes in Carlsbad, CA and didn't hesitate to reach out to Jim and Donna Klinge of Klinge Realty Group to guide us through the sales. The transactions were very different, each with its own unique situation, opportunities and challenges. From start to finish, Donna and Jim helped navigate the pre-sale preparation, the listing, showing of the house, buyer negotiations, the final close and all of the paperwork and decisions in between. What stands out with both transactions is the professionalism of Jim and Donna (and their team), wonderful communication (timely, relevant, concise), their deep understanding of market dynamics (setting realistic expectations), their access to top-notch contractors, and last, their ability to guide us across the finish line successfully. We wouldn't hesitate to use Jim and Donna in the future and highly recommend them for anyone looking to buy or sell a property in North San Diego County.
Jerry Meyer
March 28, 2025
Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google.
We sold a home with Jim and Donna and from beginning to end they were consummate professionals. Their initial walk through the property resulted in a list of items to be repaired or updated. They supplied a list of vendors and job quotes to do the repairs and updates. We originally wanted to sell ‘as is’ and just get it over with. They gave us a selling price for ‘as is’ and options for doing a few updates/repairs to doing it all with the selling price for each option. We agreed to do all they suggested and we sold for the exact price they predicted. For every dollar spent we got back more than $2 back in the selling price. And they got that price in a rising interest rate environment! Donna and Jim are extremely detailed and guide you through ever aspect of the sale. There were no surprises thanks to their guidance. We couldn’t be more pleased with their representation.
Thank you Donna and Jim,
Jerry and Mary
Heather Quejada
March 27, 2025
Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google.
We have known Jim & Donna Klinge for over a dozen years, having met them in Carlsbad where our children went to the same school. As long time North County residents, it was a no- brainer for us to have the Klinges be our eyes and ears for San Diego real estate in general and North County in particular. As my military career caused our family to move all over the country and overseas to Asia, Europe and the Pacific, we trusted Jim and Donna to help keep our house in Carlsbad rented with reliable and respectful tenants for over 10 years.
Naturally, when the time came to sell our beloved Carlsbad home to pursue a rural lifestyle in retirement out of California, we could think of no better team to represent us than Jim and Donna. They immediately went to work to update our house built in 2004 to current-day standards and trends — in 2 short months they transformed it into a literal modern-day masterpiece. We trusted their judgement implicitly and followed 100% of their recommended changes. When our house finally came on the market, there was a blizzard of serious interest, we had multiple offers by the third day and it sold in just 5 days after a frenzied bidding war for 20% above our asking price! The investment we made in upgrades recommended by Jim and Donna yielded a 4-fold return, in the process setting a new high water mark for a house sold in our community.
In our view, there are no better real estate professionals in all of San Diego than Jim and Donna Klinge. Buying or selling, you must run and beg Jim and Donna Klinge to represent you! Our family will never forget Jim, Donna, and their whole team at Compass — we are forever grateful to them.
Lou F
March 27, 2025
Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google.
WeI had the pleasure of working with Klinge Realty Group to sell our home in Carmel Valley, and I cannot recommend them highly enough!
Jim and Donna demonstrated exceptional professionalism, offering expert guidance on market conditions and pricing strategy, which resulted in a quick and successful sale.
Communication was prompt and we were well-informed throughout the entire process.
For anyone looking for a dedicated and knowledgeable real estate team, look no further!
---
William Sams
March 25, 2025
Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google.
Donna and Jim Klinge of Klinge Realty Group have our highest possible recommendation. From Donna and Jim’s first visit to our house through closing their advice and counsel was candid and honest in all dealings. They kept us fully informed throughout the process. The house sold less than three days after listing with a two-week closing. My wife and I have sold several houses during our lives. This was by far the best experience. Klinge Reality is a premium service realtor. You can’t make a better choice for someone to sell your home fast and for top dollar.
Emily Hernandez
December 29, 2024
Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google.
Donna and Jim provided exceptional support and professionalism throughout the entire process. We couldn't have been happier with their efforts. They made our house shine, and thanks to their expertise, it sold above the listing price in the very first weekend! Truly a fantastic experience from start to finish.
Jesus Adrian Sahagun
November 11, 2024
Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google.
This year has been difficult on our family, mainly due to having to sell our home. Thankfully we knew God had a plan for us and working with the Klinge team was a key part of it. It was an obvious decision to work with them again after such an amazing experience when purchasing the same home we needed to sell. The challenge was, how will we do this in so little time with so much going on? Jim and Donna held our hand every step of the way. Whenever an unexpected issue arose they found and provided a solution. Never once did we feel pressured to make a decision and the Klinges were always reassuring after providing the information that the decision was ours to make. Despite the curve balls, they never panicked and exemplified the “can do” attitude, making us feel optimistic and taken care of. Their expertise and professionalism was superb. But of all the reasons to work with the Klinges, the most impactful and valuable is their compassion and genuine care for their clients. We pray that we can one day purchase our forever home and you better believe that Jim and Donna will be representing us - as long as they will have us of course. Thank you again Klinge team! Your execution, experience, and care are unmatched.
SABIHA PASHA
July 23, 2024
Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google.
Jim and Donna were fantastic! Jim understanding my needs, recommending potential places, pointing out the pros and cons of each property was invaluable. Then when the offer was accepted Donna’s organized guidance through the inspections, paperwork etc made the whole process seem effortless.
So grateful that I had them on my side!
