Inventory Watch

by | Oct 17, 2022 | 2022, Frenzy, Inventory, Market Conditions | 2 comments

Bill has been following the inventory in different markets, and San Diego is faring much better than other areas.  He is showing a 23.8% drop in new listings YoY, but last year was the record low.  Look at the previous years:

September New Listings, San Diego County Detached and Attached Homes:

2005: 6,325

2006: 5,735

2007: 5,448

2008: 5,101

2009: 4,328

2010: 4,696

2011: 4,013

2012: 3,578

2013: 4,265

2014: 4,367

2015: 4,185

2016: 4,267

2017: 3,953

2018: 4,506

2019: 3,959

2020: 4,389

2021: 3,570

2022: 2,853

Everyone talks about the demand-side, but our market is being impacted by the lack of supply too.

Could there be demand that isn’t being satisfied because there aren’t more quality homes for sale listed by good agents at attractive prices?

  1. I had 100+ people come to open house this weekend, and there were legitimate buyers in the group.
  2. I wanted to show a house this weekend, and the showing instructions said to text the listing agent. I started via text on Wednesday, but literally never got a response, so I didn’t show it. The listing is still active today.
  3. Higher rates haven’t changed the frustration of finding the right house, at the right price.

The inventory is probably going to dry up further and more sellers get convinced that now isn’t a good time to sell.  With a tight selection of quality homes for sale, those who are willing to sell now aren’t going to be deterred from trying peak pricing, or close.

Example: My $1,800,000 listing in Aviara?  This just popped up around the corner, priced at $2,295,000:

https://www.compass.com/app/listing/1306-savannah-lane-carlsbad-ca-92011/1158240234153778457

Those folks might sell, and they might not, but they should help me with mine!  My point is that we are not seeing an increasing flow of new listings being priced lower and lower in an attempt to get out now. It’s actually quite the opposite.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

 

The $0 – $1,500,000 Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
Avg. DOM
# of Pendings
Jan 3, 2022
9
$832/sf
35
36
Jan 10
9
$766/sf
28
29
Jan 17
13
$773/sf
26
27
Jan 24
9
$818/sf
15
29
Jan 31
14
$752/sf
14
31
Feb 7
13
$774/sf
12
32
Feb 14
11
$826/sf
12
35
Feb 21
7
$889/sf
17
38
Feb 28
12
$888/sf
17
33
Mar 7
9
$1,017/sf
21
33
Mar 14
14
$847/sf
18
31
Mar 21
8
$912/sf
26
36
Mar 28
10
$914/sf
25
28
Apr 4
10
$782/sf
33
34
Apr 11
19
$733/sf
21
36
Apr 18
16
$795/sf
28
34
Apr 25
18
$891/sf
27
30
May 2
22
$822/sf
23
31
May 9
24
$887/sf
17
46
May 16
25
$783/sf
22
25
May 23
29
$782/sf
23
29
May 30
30
$782/sf
24
28
Jun 6
34
$763/sf
25
28
Jun 13
33
$802/sf
29
29
Jun 20
48
$774/sf
28
22
Jun 27
43
$755/sf
32
22
Jul 4
49
$757/sf
33
23
Jul 11
56
$757/sf
35
22
Jul 18
51
$741/sf
38
24
Jul 25
53
$755/sf
38
22
Aug 1
46
$736/sf
36
29
Aug 8
43
$746/sf
41
32
Aug 15
37
$775/sf
37
34
Aug 22
36
$766/sf
41
33
Aug 29
34
$750/sf
40
39
Sep 5
28
$717/sf
50
31
Sep 12
31
$736/sf
52
29
Sep 19
32
$753/sf
36
27
Sep 26
31
$726/sf
39
28
Oct 3
34
$733/sf
34
22
Oct 10
30
$729/sf
36
27
Oct 17
36
$725/sf
36
23

The $1,500,000 – $2,000,000 Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
Avg. DOM
# of Pendings
Jan 3, 2022
8
$842/sf
52
36
Jan 10
13
$751/sf
28
29
Jan 17
16
$736/sf
33
27
Jan 24
16
$801/sf
17
27
Jan 31
15
$696/sf
14
34
Feb 7
15
$765/sf
17
34
Feb 14
10
$726/sf
19
38
Feb 21
19
$715/sf
15
39
Feb 28
9
$660/sf
12
46
Mar 7
16
$789/sf
15
46
Mar 14
17
$837/sf
8
44
Mar 21
18
$867/sf
11
43
Mar 28
14
$838/sf
15
48
Apr 4
18
$762/sf
25
42
Apr 11
23
$774/sf
15
39
Apr 18
22
$792/sf
17
41
Apr 25
18
$810/sf
20
41
May 2
27
$809/sf
17
37
May 9
33
$837/sf
17
46
May 16
39
$793/sf
19
44
May 23
43
$793/sf
22
44
May 30
36
$843/sf
23
36
Jun 6
43
$817/sf
23
41
Jun 13
49
$845/sf
24
42
Jun 20
57
$817/sf
24
41
Jun 27
75
$807/sf
24
35
Jul 4
70
$827/sf
27
33
Jul 11
71
$812/sf
30
38
Jul 18
74
$793/sf
32
35
Jul 25
83
$787/sf
34
29
Aug 1
81
$780/sf
35
31
Aug 8
76
$796/sf
40
30
Aug 15
80
$789/sf
42
38
Aug 22
78
$801/sf
46
38
Aug 29
81
$811/sf
51
40
Sep 5
82
$795/sf
50
31
Sep 12
78
$796/sf
53
29
Sep 19
73
$818/sf
47
34
Sep 26
75
$795/sf
45
33
Oct 3
75
$826/sf
42
31
Oct 10
69
$853/sf
45
27
Oct 17
73
$841/sf
46
22

The $2,000,000 – $3,000,000 Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
Avg. DOM
# of Pendings
Jan 3, 2022
18
$1,080/sf
127
43
Jan 10
23
$1,038/sf
85
37
Jan 17
26
$1,044/sf
80
41
Jan 24
28
$1,015/sf
37
42
Jan 31
22
$949/sf
38
47
Feb 7
26
$919/sf
29
42
Feb 14
22
$997/sf
37
49
Feb 21
21
$966/sf
33
54
Feb 28
26
$905/sf
32
57
Mar 7
29
$922/sf
28
57
Mar 14
20
$852/sf
26
58
Mar 21
17
$928/sf
26
60
Mar 28
34
$927/sf
12
65
Apr 4
32
$927/sf
20
69
Apr 11
44
$910/sf
17
62
Apr 18
48
$997/sf
19
66
Apr 25
42
$1,092/sf
18
73
May 2
54
$995/sf
19
70
May 9
61
$910/sf
20
73
May 16
64
$977/sf
22
69
May 23
82
$953/sf
25
59
May 30
78
$951/sf
27
56
Jun 6
94
$963/sf
27
58
Jun 13
98
$961/sf
28
70
Jun 20
91
$935/sf
32
59
Jun 27
111
$894/sf
30
60
Jul 4
112
$910/sf
33
60
Jul 11
122
$912/sf
34
56
Jul 18
103
$893/sf
39
68
Jul 25
108
$883/sf
40
63
Aug 1
110
$887/sf
41
58
Aug 8
124
$941/sf
39
50
Aug 15
114
$945/sf
45
51
Aug 22
123
$948/sf
42
46
Aug 29
125
$938/sf
46
45
Sep 5
116
$948/sf
48
38
Sep 12
110
$908/sf
49
43
Sep 19
108
$928/sf
50
46
Sep 26
106
$926/sf
51
45
Oct 3
103
$941/sf
50
46
Oct 10
109
$987/sf
50
42
Oct 17
103
$969/sf
50
45

The $3,000,000 – $4,000,000 Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
Avg. DOM
# of Pendings
Jan 3, 2022
19
$1,230/sf
90
26
Jan 10
22
$1,210/sf
76
25
Jan 17
19
$1,207/sf
86
23
Jan 24
17
$1,129/sf
92
24
Jan 31
21
$1,172/sf
70
22
Feb 7
19
$1,169/sf
67
25
Feb 14
19
$1,234/sf
65
28
Feb 21
21
$1,279/sf
69
28
Feb 28
22
$1,214/sf
64
25
Mar 7
27
$1,295/sf
60
24
Mar 14
27
$1,201/sf
65
27
Mar 21
23
$1,282/sf
69
31
Mar 28
25
$1,253/sf
67
30
Apr 4
30
$1,199/sf
61
27
Apr 11
32
$1,174/sf
62
31
Apr 18
33
$1,216/sf
68
31
Apr 25
33
$1,219/sf
63
33
May 2
37
$1,164/sf
50
36
May 9
33
$1,132/sf
57
32
May 16
40
$1,119/sf
53
32
May 23
40
$1,135/sf
57
27
May 30
40
$1,178/sf
61
28
Jun 6
43
$1,224/sf
56
28
Jun 13
48
$1,184/sf
52
28
Jun 20
52
$1,117/sf
53
26
Jun 27
60
$1,120/sf
51
19
Jul 4
55
$1,127/sf
58
23
Jul 11
68
$1,140/sf
47
26
Jul 18
66
$1,206/sf
52
25
Jul 25
65
$1,200/sf
54
26
Aug 1
59
$1,191/sf
60
26
Aug 8
58
$1,209/sf
63
22
Aug 15
59
$1,166/sf
62
21
Aug 22
57
$1,163/sf
60
28
Aug 29
53
$1,168/sf
64
31
Sep 5
48
$1,157/sf
67
25
Sep 12
50
$1,215/sf
67
27
Sep 19
46
$1,196/sf
74
26
Sep 26
42
$1,200/sf
82
20
Oct 3
42
$1,216/sf
78
20
Oct 10
38
$1,154/sf
62
18
Oct 17
34
$1,171/sf
73
20

The $4,000,000+ Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
Avg. DOM
# of Pendings
Jan 3, 2022
100
$1,884/sf
128
30
Jan 10
105
$1,864/sf
113
29
Jan 17
109
$1,763/sf
110
34
Jan 24
105
$2,130/sf
114
42
Jan 31
102
$2,114/sf
118
53
Feb 7
109
$2,000/sf
108
50
Feb 14
108
$2,005/sf
109
47
Feb 21
113
$2,008/sf
103
43
Feb 28
111
$1,991/sf
101
47
Mar 7
115
$1,904/sf
91
39
Mar 14
121
$1,893/sf
95
43
Mar 21
116
$1,905/sf
97
44
Mar 28
104
$1,966/sf
97
59
Apr 4
103
$1,929/sf
97
56
Apr 11
106
$1,906/sf
97
55
Apr 18
108
$1,874/sf
100
51
Apr 25
116
$1,829/sf
97
38
May 2
117
$1,781/sf
95
32
May 9
116
$1,831/sf
96
36
May 16
124
$1,854/sf
91
39
May 23
125
$1,855/sf
92
36
May 30
129
$1,706/sf
93
39
Jun 6
131
$1,740/sf
89
33
Jun 13
132
$1,793/sf
86
38
Jun 20
148
$1,772/sf
84
35
Jun 27
153
$1,779/sf
87
29
Jul 4
155
$1,777/sf
82
25
Jul 11
164
$1,759/sf
85
26
Jul 18
170
$1,740/sf
86
26
Jul 25
178
$1,701/sf
84
27
Aug 1
180
$1,696/sf
85
28
Aug 8
173
$1,715/sf
91
24
Aug 15
168
$1,746/sf
89
32
Aug 22
160
$1,718/sf
92
29
Aug 29
165
$1,732/sf
93
28
Sep 5
162
$1,745/sf
95
26
Sep 12
152
$1,715/sf
96
29
Sep 19
155
$1,727/sf
97
28
Sep 26
157
$1,728/sf
97
27
Oct 3
150
$1,701/sf
96
27
Oct 10
153
$1,711/sf
103
29
Oct 17
152
$1,675/sf
101
25

NSDCC Weekly New Listings and New Pendings

Week
New Listings
New Pendings
Total Actives
Total Pendings
Jan 3, 2022
17
14
152
164
Jan 10
39
18
167
142
Jan 17
34
29
179
145
Jan 24
41
40
173
157
Jan 31
43
40
173
182
Feb 7
43
38
179
179
Feb 14
44
49
168
193
Feb 21
51
38
180
197
Feb 28
39
39
179
205
Mar 7
54
37
191
195
Mar 14
48
51
195
196
Mar 21
39
46
178
207
Mar 28
53
50
185
224
Apr 4
46
40
190
220
Apr 11
61
39
221
213
Apr 18
41
46
224
212
Apr 25
50
43
224
205
May 2
76
37
256
196
May 9
59
46
262
207
May 16
78
48
286
200
May 23
61
42
312
192
May 30
54
44
307
183
Jun 6
70
31
338
183
Jun 13
60
41
354
202
Jun 20
71
25
388
177
Jun 27
73
26
433
159
Jul 4
55
39
432
158
Jul 11
55
24
471
161
Jul 18
49
35
459
168
Jul 25
60
20
480
158
Aug 1
55
35
473
161
Aug 8
40
32
466
151
Aug 15
51
32
451
168
Aug 22
43
29
445
166
Aug 29
43
27
449
175
Sep 5
31
22
432
144
Sep 12
38
22
415
151
Sep 19
45
26
405
155
Sep 26
45
27
402
149
Oct 3
46
19
396
143
Oct 10
40
26
391
140
Oct 17
37
19
393
134
author avatar
Jim the Realtor
Jim is a long-time local realtor who comments daily here on his blog, bubbleinfo.com which began in September, 2005. Stick around!
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2 Comments

  1. shadash
    shadash on October 17, 2022 at 10:09 am

    It’s going to be fun watching Realtors switch from advocating letting “homeowners” living in their house for free (to keep comps from dropping) to being the biggest proponents of foreclosures.

    To keep paychecks rolling realtors need X number of Sales/Transactions to occur. If listings aren’t happening/closing because the prices + available interest rates are too high something will have to give.

    The answer to everything is + has always been Foreclosures + Real Foreclosures not the fake insider deals that block out traditional investors.

  2. Jim the Realtor
    Jim the Realtor on October 17, 2022 at 10:58 am

    Those beamers and teslas don’t pay for themselves!

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