Bill has been following the inventory in different markets, and San Diego is faring much better than other areas.  He is showing a 23.8% drop in new listings YoY, but last year was the record low.  Look at the previous years:

September New Listings, San Diego County Detached and Attached Homes:

2005: 6,325

2006: 5,735

2007: 5,448

2008: 5,101

2009: 4,328

2010: 4,696

2011: 4,013

2012: 3,578

2013: 4,265

2014: 4,367

2015: 4,185

2016: 4,267

2017: 3,953

2018: 4,506

2019: 3,959

2020: 4,389

2021: 3,570

2022: 2,853

Everyone talks about the demand-side, but our market is being impacted by the lack of supply too.

Could there be demand that isn’t being satisfied because there aren’t more quality homes for sale listed by good agents at attractive prices?

1. I had 100+ people come to open house this weekend, and there were legitimate buyers in the group.
2. I wanted to show a house this weekend, and the showing instructions said to text the listing agent. I started via text on Wednesday, but literally never got a response, so I didn’t show it. The listing is still active today.
3. Higher rates haven’t changed the frustration of finding the right house, at the right price.

The inventory is probably going to dry up further and more sellers get convinced that now isn’t a good time to sell.  With a tight selection of quality homes for sale, those who are willing to sell now aren’t going to be deterred from trying peak pricing, or close.

Example: My $1,800,000 listing in Aviara?  This just popped up around the corner, priced at $2,295,000:

https://www.compass.com/app/listing/1306-savannah-lane-carlsbad-ca-92011/1158240234153778457

Those folks might sell, and they might not, but they should help me with mine!  My point is that we are not seeing an increasing flow of new listings being priced lower and lower in an attempt to get out now. It’s actually quite the opposite.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

 

The $0 – $1,500,000 Market:

Date	NSDCC Active Listings	Avg. LP/sf	Avg. DOM	# of Pendings
Jan 3, 2022	9	$832/sf	35	36
Jan 10	9	$766/sf	28	29
Jan 17	13	$773/sf	26	27
Jan 24	9	$818/sf	15	29
Jan 31	14	$752/sf	14	31
Feb 7	13	$774/sf	12	32
Feb 14	11	$826/sf	12	35
Feb 21	7	$889/sf	17	38
Feb 28	12	$888/sf	17	33
Mar 7	9	$1,017/sf	21	33
Mar 14	14	$847/sf	18	31
Mar 21	8	$912/sf	26	36
Mar 28	10	$914/sf	25	28
Apr 4	10	$782/sf	33	34
Apr 11	19	$733/sf	21	36
Apr 18	16	$795/sf	28	34
Apr 25	18	$891/sf	27	30
May 2	22	$822/sf	23	31
May 9	24	$887/sf	17	46
May 16	25	$783/sf	22	25
May 23	29	$782/sf	23	29
May 30	30	$782/sf	24	28
Jun 6	34	$763/sf	25	28
Jun 13	33	$802/sf	29	29
Jun 20	48	$774/sf	28	22
Jun 27	43	$755/sf	32	22
Jul 4	49	$757/sf	33	23
Jul 11	56	$757/sf	35	22
Jul 18	51	$741/sf	38	24
Jul 25	53	$755/sf	38	22
Aug 1	46	$736/sf	36	29
Aug 8	43	$746/sf	41	32
Aug 15	37	$775/sf	37	34
Aug 22	36	$766/sf	41	33
Aug 29	34	$750/sf	40	39
Sep 5	28	$717/sf	50	31
Sep 12	31	$736/sf	52	29
Sep 19	32	$753/sf	36	27
Sep 26	31	$726/sf	39	28
Oct 3	34	$733/sf	34	22
Oct 10	30	$729/sf	36	27
Oct 17	36	$725/sf	36	23

The $1,500,000 – $2,000,000 Market:

Date	NSDCC Active Listings	Avg. LP/sf	Avg. DOM	# of Pendings
Jan 3, 2022	8	$842/sf	52	36
Jan 10	13	$751/sf	28	29
Jan 17	16	$736/sf	33	27
Jan 24	16	$801/sf	17	27
Jan 31	15	$696/sf	14	34
Feb 7	15	$765/sf	17	34
Feb 14	10	$726/sf	19	38
Feb 21	19	$715/sf	15	39
Feb 28	9	$660/sf	12	46
Mar 7	16	$789/sf	15	46
Mar 14	17	$837/sf	8	44
Mar 21	18	$867/sf	11	43
Mar 28	14	$838/sf	15	48
Apr 4	18	$762/sf	25	42
Apr 11	23	$774/sf	15	39
Apr 18	22	$792/sf	17	41
Apr 25	18	$810/sf	20	41
May 2	27	$809/sf	17	37
May 9	33	$837/sf	17	46
May 16	39	$793/sf	19	44
May 23	43	$793/sf	22	44
May 30	36	$843/sf	23	36
Jun 6	43	$817/sf	23	41
Jun 13	49	$845/sf	24	42
Jun 20	57	$817/sf	24	41
Jun 27	75	$807/sf	24	35
Jul 4	70	$827/sf	27	33
Jul 11	71	$812/sf	30	38
Jul 18	74	$793/sf	32	35
Jul 25	83	$787/sf	34	29
Aug 1	81	$780/sf	35	31
Aug 8	76	$796/sf	40	30
Aug 15	80	$789/sf	42	38
Aug 22	78	$801/sf	46	38
Aug 29	81	$811/sf	51	40
Sep 5	82	$795/sf	50	31
Sep 12	78	$796/sf	53	29
Sep 19	73	$818/sf	47	34
Sep 26	75	$795/sf	45	33
Oct 3	75	$826/sf	42	31
Oct 10	69	$853/sf	45	27
Oct 17	73	$841/sf	46	22

The $2,000,000 – $3,000,000 Market:

Date	NSDCC Active Listings	Avg. LP/sf	Avg. DOM	# of Pendings
Jan 3, 2022	18	$1,080/sf	127	43
Jan 10	23	$1,038/sf	85	37
Jan 17	26	$1,044/sf	80	41
Jan 24	28	$1,015/sf	37	42
Jan 31	22	$949/sf	38	47
Feb 7	26	$919/sf	29	42
Feb 14	22	$997/sf	37	49
Feb 21	21	$966/sf	33	54
Feb 28	26	$905/sf	32	57
Mar 7	29	$922/sf	28	57
Mar 14	20	$852/sf	26	58
Mar 21	17	$928/sf	26	60
Mar 28	34	$927/sf	12	65
Apr 4	32	$927/sf	20	69
Apr 11	44	$910/sf	17	62
Apr 18	48	$997/sf	19	66
Apr 25	42	$1,092/sf	18	73
May 2	54	$995/sf	19	70
May 9	61	$910/sf	20	73
May 16	64	$977/sf	22	69
May 23	82	$953/sf	25	59
May 30	78	$951/sf	27	56
Jun 6	94	$963/sf	27	58
Jun 13	98	$961/sf	28	70
Jun 20	91	$935/sf	32	59
Jun 27	111	$894/sf	30	60
Jul 4	112	$910/sf	33	60
Jul 11	122	$912/sf	34	56
Jul 18	103	$893/sf	39	68
Jul 25	108	$883/sf	40	63
Aug 1	110	$887/sf	41	58
Aug 8	124	$941/sf	39	50
Aug 15	114	$945/sf	45	51
Aug 22	123	$948/sf	42	46
Aug 29	125	$938/sf	46	45
Sep 5	116	$948/sf	48	38
Sep 12	110	$908/sf	49	43
Sep 19	108	$928/sf	50	46
Sep 26	106	$926/sf	51	45
Oct 3	103	$941/sf	50	46
Oct 10	109	$987/sf	50	42
Oct 17	103	$969/sf	50	45

The $3,000,000 – $4,000,000 Market:

Date	NSDCC Active Listings	Avg. LP/sf	Avg. DOM	# of Pendings
Jan 3, 2022	19	$1,230/sf	90	26
Jan 10	22	$1,210/sf	76	25
Jan 17	19	$1,207/sf	86	23
Jan 24	17	$1,129/sf	92	24
Jan 31	21	$1,172/sf	70	22
Feb 7	19	$1,169/sf	67	25
Feb 14	19	$1,234/sf	65	28
Feb 21	21	$1,279/sf	69	28
Feb 28	22	$1,214/sf	64	25
Mar 7	27	$1,295/sf	60	24
Mar 14	27	$1,201/sf	65	27
Mar 21	23	$1,282/sf	69	31
Mar 28	25	$1,253/sf	67	30
Apr 4	30	$1,199/sf	61	27
Apr 11	32	$1,174/sf	62	31
Apr 18	33	$1,216/sf	68	31
Apr 25	33	$1,219/sf	63	33
May 2	37	$1,164/sf	50	36
May 9	33	$1,132/sf	57	32
May 16	40	$1,119/sf	53	32
May 23	40	$1,135/sf	57	27
May 30	40	$1,178/sf	61	28
Jun 6	43	$1,224/sf	56	28
Jun 13	48	$1,184/sf	52	28
Jun 20	52	$1,117/sf	53	26
Jun 27	60	$1,120/sf	51	19
Jul 4	55	$1,127/sf	58	23
Jul 11	68	$1,140/sf	47	26
Jul 18	66	$1,206/sf	52	25
Jul 25	65	$1,200/sf	54	26
Aug 1	59	$1,191/sf	60	26
Aug 8	58	$1,209/sf	63	22
Aug 15	59	$1,166/sf	62	21
Aug 22	57	$1,163/sf	60	28
Aug 29	53	$1,168/sf	64	31
Sep 5	48	$1,157/sf	67	25
Sep 12	50	$1,215/sf	67	27
Sep 19	46	$1,196/sf	74	26
Sep 26	42	$1,200/sf	82	20
Oct 3	42	$1,216/sf	78	20
Oct 10	38	$1,154/sf	62	18
Oct 17	34	$1,171/sf	73	20

The $4,000,000+ Market:

Date	NSDCC Active Listings	Avg. LP/sf	Avg. DOM	# of Pendings
Jan 3, 2022	100	$1,884/sf	128	30
Jan 10	105	$1,864/sf	113	29
Jan 17	109	$1,763/sf	110	34
Jan 24	105	$2,130/sf	114	42
Jan 31	102	$2,114/sf	118	53
Feb 7	109	$2,000/sf	108	50
Feb 14	108	$2,005/sf	109	47
Feb 21	113	$2,008/sf	103	43
Feb 28	111	$1,991/sf	101	47
Mar 7	115	$1,904/sf	91	39
Mar 14	121	$1,893/sf	95	43
Mar 21	116	$1,905/sf	97	44
Mar 28	104	$1,966/sf	97	59
Apr 4	103	$1,929/sf	97	56
Apr 11	106	$1,906/sf	97	55
Apr 18	108	$1,874/sf	100	51
Apr 25	116	$1,829/sf	97	38
May 2	117	$1,781/sf	95	32
May 9	116	$1,831/sf	96	36
May 16	124	$1,854/sf	91	39
May 23	125	$1,855/sf	92	36
May 30	129	$1,706/sf	93	39
Jun 6	131	$1,740/sf	89	33
Jun 13	132	$1,793/sf	86	38
Jun 20	148	$1,772/sf	84	35
Jun 27	153	$1,779/sf	87	29
Jul 4	155	$1,777/sf	82	25
Jul 11	164	$1,759/sf	85	26
Jul 18	170	$1,740/sf	86	26
Jul 25	178	$1,701/sf	84	27
Aug 1	180	$1,696/sf	85	28
Aug 8	173	$1,715/sf	91	24
Aug 15	168	$1,746/sf	89	32
Aug 22	160	$1,718/sf	92	29
Aug 29	165	$1,732/sf	93	28
Sep 5	162	$1,745/sf	95	26
Sep 12	152	$1,715/sf	96	29
Sep 19	155	$1,727/sf	97	28
Sep 26	157	$1,728/sf	97	27
Oct 3	150	$1,701/sf	96	27
Oct 10	153	$1,711/sf	103	29
Oct 17	152	$1,675/sf	101	25

NSDCC Weekly New Listings and New Pendings

Week	New Listings	New Pendings	Total Actives	Total Pendings
Jan 3, 2022	17	14	152	164
Jan 10	39	18	167	142
Jan 17	34	29	179	145
Jan 24	41	40	173	157
Jan 31	43	40	173	182
Feb 7	43	38	179	179
Feb 14	44	49	168	193
Feb 21	51	38	180	197
Feb 28	39	39	179	205
Mar 7	54	37	191	195
Mar 14	48	51	195	196
Mar 21	39	46	178	207
Mar 28	53	50	185	224
Apr 4	46	40	190	220
Apr 11	61	39	221	213
Apr 18	41	46	224	212
Apr 25	50	43	224	205
May 2	76	37	256	196
May 9	59	46	262	207
May 16	78	48	286	200
May 23	61	42	312	192
May 30	54	44	307	183
Jun 6	70	31	338	183
Jun 13	60	41	354	202
Jun 20	71	25	388	177
Jun 27	73	26	433	159
Jul 4	55	39	432	158
Jul 11	55	24	471	161
Jul 18	49	35	459	168
Jul 25	60	20	480	158
Aug 1	55	35	473	161
Aug 8	40	32	466	151
Aug 15	51	32	451	168
Aug 22	43	29	445	166
Aug 29	43	27	449	175
Sep 5	31	22	432	144
Sep 12	38	22	415	151
Sep 19	45	26	405	155
Sep 26	45	27	402	149
Oct 3	46	19	396	143
Oct 10	40	26	391	140
Oct 17	37	19	393	134