The most interesting part of this graph is that in 2023 the number of active listings stayed about the same from mid-January to mid-April as the market got off to a fast start. The number of pendings were steady too, all while 573 sales were closing between Jan 1 and April 30, 2023.
If 2024 gets off to a slower start, we will see it in the number of actives trickling upward.
NSDCC Listings, January 1-15
2023: 100
2024: 99
You could say that the 2024 inventory is tracking very closely to last year’s numbers! There will be extras added to this year’s count, so comparatively, we can guess that the 2024 count will be 110-115 or so.
But look at the difference in the graph above.
Last year got off to a fast start as the number of pendings picked up right away….but not this year. The actives are there, but they aren’t flying into escrow like last year.
Our open house had a similar result. lots of attendees, glowing remarks, hints of offers, but we’re not in escrow yet. I only saw a handful of other open houses, but the results looked the same – lots of people milling about, but that’s about it.
A slower start probably means that the inventory is still very thin, which makes it hard to compare. Mortgage rates are about the same as they were last January, so that’s not it – but the rate expectation is way different, with Fed moves expected over the next few months. It could cause buyers to be very deliberate in the early going.
Hopefully, the pendings count will increase over the next few days as the fruits from the weekend are logged. But the actives are surging ahead for now.
Not having much of an ocean view (when many of the neighbors have a full ocean view) was a little disappointing, so a slight discount might have been in order along with a nice easy cash deal and a $2,000,000 profit for the seller.
Yeah ok but you already live in San Diego – consider moving to one of the others!
Retirees responded similarly to working adults when asked what qualities they desire in a city. Cost of living (46%) is the top priority for those surveyed, followed by closeness to family (36%) and safety (34%). However, retirees were more concerned about the weather (33%) and less concerned about employment opportunities.
As for where retirees hoped to live, San Diego, CA (19%), was the No. 1 choice, followed by Virginia Beach, VA (12%), and Charlotte, NC (12%). San Diego proved to be just as expensive for retirees as it did for working adults, landing at No. 107 out of 112 total cities. San Diego has high home prices and cost of living, and California taxes retirement account withdrawals. Charlotte ranks at No. 76 and Virginia Beach ranked in the top 20 most affordable cities for retirees. The coastal Virginia town was No. 14 for healthcare access and quality, with a bustling senior scene, and many 55+ retirement communities.
https://www.empower.com/the-currency/life/affordable-us-cities-to-work-retire
Yesterday, we attended Gov’s annual update on new laws and forms for 2024.
He touched on many topics – including that landlords in California might be agreeing to tenants for life because it’s so hard legally to get rid of them – but the most interesting was his comments on the realtor lawsuits and commissions for the buyer-agents.
To demonstrate the difficulty of coming up with a viable solution, the best the California Association of Realtors can do is to add paragraph G3 into the purchase contract (above) and hope the buyer’s agent already has a written agreement for the buyer to pay the commission. At least paragraph G3 will pass the responsibility of paying the buyer-agent commission along to the seller so the buyer doesn’t have to pay it, but in a multiple-offer situation, all it will do is send your offer to the back of the line.
When in a bidding war, buyer-agents will be forced to omit paragraph G3 and saddle the buyer with the commission payment instead.
What’s worse is that the federal judge presiding over the successful realtor lawsuit will be deciding in May whether or not to make it a national law that PREVENTS the seller from paying the buyer-agent’s commission altogether, or let the current commission structure ride until the appeals process is complete.
It appears that the buyers will be paying their agent’s commission, sooner or later.
In an interesting twist, Gov was describing how the best solution for evicting a tenant is to bribe them with cash-for-keys and we even have a form for it now. But bribing a buyer-agent is completely out of line? A home seller should have the ability to pay the buyer-agent commission if they see fit.
This home was designated as a historical property in 2019 and there is a recorded document that says any exterior or landscape modifications must be approved by the City of San Diego. The torrey pine tree in the front yard was planted shortly after construction in 1971, and is part of the historical designation.
The buyer thought enough of it that they paid over list!
Here’s the description by the city: Recuerdo historical findings
Over the last few years, the real estate disrupters have figured that the high-tech environment should produce an easier/cheaper way to buy and sell homes. No matter how it’s presented though, the message is clear. We’re hoping to beat the agents out of their commission.
Saving the commission is a noble aspiration and sounds very feasible when consumers run into most agents. Usually they come away thinking, “what do they do to deserve that much commission?” Some consumers get so defiant that they will sell their home without an agent just to be right about not paying a commission – even if they sell for less.
The most famous example here was the blog reader who wanted me to provide him with customized market data – even though he was listed with one of the $500 input services. When I brought it up here on the blog, he got beligerent and raised his price by $300,000, just to show us how determined he was – and this was in early 2022 when the frenzy was red hot:
But 16 months later, he still had not sold his house.
He finally gave up and hired a BH agent who promptly got him a sale over list price:
There is a gap between wholesale and retail pricing that is about 10%. A good listing agent will sell your home towards the top end of the range, and the average agent will sell it for less. The message that agents should be offering is to Get Good Help, because the top agents pay for themselves by selling your house for full retail!
Why can’t a for-sale-by-owner sell for full retail? Because they always price too high, and buyers aren’t as comfortable with the process or the price when there isn’t a good agent involved. You need one or the other – a good agent, or a very attractive price to compensate.
Are homeowners going to risk giving their house away? No, they will just price at full retail and wait until somebody comes along – and we know who comes along – realtors, by the dozens.
The disrupters will put all sorts of spin on it – remember Make Me Move by Zillow?
But none of them are able to change the fact that buyers aren’t comfortable paying full retail unless somebody is there to instill ease and comfort. Price didn’t matter as much during the frenzy, but it matters now, and the best thing any seller can do is to Get Good Help who pays for themself by getting full retail while making the process easier and more predictable for you.
Those who were in the LA area during the 1970s and 80s came across DJ Jim Ladd who played free-form radio for decades. I remember listening during the night that John Lennon died, and he played a memorial set that gave me a new appreciation for Lennon – and music in general! But Jim’s favorites were the Doors, which he played several times a night. When we did the concerts at CSUF, our first big outdoor show was with The Robbie Kreiger Band (sponsored by Miller Lite), and he played this song:
Here’s how our new listing stacks up.
Nine of the 22 homes for sale in the 92011 are mobile homes, and two are attached homes.
This zip code has a population of ~25,000, but there are only NINE houses for sale, ranging from $1,995,290 to $3,779,000…..and now two are for sale on the same street! We expected that the one down the hill at 7210 Aviara Drive would re-enter the market, because it had been for sale for months at the end of last year and cancelled for the holidays.
I didn’t advertise on Zillow that we are doing the broker preview today because the HOA is tough and I don’t want to stir it up. But the competition went ahead with publicizing their open house today so both of us should benefit. If you’re interested, come on by – we’re having breakfast burritos!
The specialized Zillow listing kit that they started selling this year for $529 includes prominent placement of the listing for the first seven days, but when there are only 22 for sale, it means that everyone is up front. But I don’t mind the #1 spot – here’s how our listing has scored so far:
The saves-divided-by-views = 8%, which is better than my rule-of-thumb of at least 5% for hot listings, and then Zillow adjusting their zestimate to within 0.4% of my list price doesn’t hurt either. It was just slightly different last week:
The Zillow listing kit includes photos, 30-second video (too short for big homes), drone shots, 3D tour, and floor plan. They require that agents use their 3D tour and floor plans in the MLS to receive the 7-day prominent placement, and it makes you wonder what else they will require once they gain more traction.
Here is the pro video we did with our usual guy (not Zillow). It’s the best one yet:
Come by 10:30am-1pm today, or on Saturday, 12-3pm!
