Inventory Watch

by | Aug 22, 2022 | Inventory

If there was a big surge of listings that weren’t selling, then we’d know for sure that the local market was in trouble. But we got so spoiled by the super-frenzy conditions last year where everything was selling right away that we forgot what it’s like during a non-frenzy.

Yep, when you compare to 2021, we have more active listings – in fact, there are 32% more $2,000,000+ listings today than there were at this time last year!  But relatively speaking, the 340 is a low number:

NSDCC Detached-Home Active Listings, Third Week of August:

Price Range
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
0 – $1.5M
328
289
132
47
36
$1.5M – $2.0M
171
200
118
55
78
$2.0M+
562
543
430
257
340
Total # of Listings
1,061
1,032
710
359
454

The inventory is top-heavy with 75% of the actives priced over $2,000,000, but we’ve been very dependent upon the affluent buyers for a while now – the people who are less sensitive to mortgage-rate fluctuations.  The real problem is that you have never gotten so little for your money as you get today.  If anyone can find a way to move up in price to buy a better home, it’s the affluent buyers!

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

 

The $0 – $1,500,000 Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
Avg. DOM
# of Pendings
Jan 3, 2022
9
$832/sf
35
36
Jan 10
9
$766/sf
28
29
Jan 17
13
$773/sf
26
27
Jan 24
9
$818/sf
15
29
Jan 31
14
$752/sf
14
31
Feb 7
13
$774/sf
12
32
Feb 14
11
$826/sf
12
35
Feb 21
7
$889/sf
17
38
Feb 28
12
$888/sf
17
33
Mar 7
9
$1,017/sf
21
33
Mar 14
14
$847/sf
18
31
Mar 21
8
$912/sf
26
36
Mar 28
10
$914/sf
25
28
Apr 4
10
$782/sf
33
34
Apr 11
19
$733/sf
21
36
Apr 18
16
$795/sf
28
34
Apr 25
18
$891/sf
27
30
May 2
22
$822/sf
23
31
May 9
24
$887/sf
17
46
May 16
25
$783/sf
22
25
May 23
29
$782/sf
23
29
May 30
30
$782/sf
24
28
Jun 6
34
$763/sf
25
28
Jun 13
33
$802/sf
29
29
Jun 20
48
$774/sf
28
22
Jun 27
43
$755/sf
32
22
Jul 4
49
$757/sf
33
23
Jul 11
56
$757/sf
35
22
Jul 18
51
$741/sf
38
24
Jul 25
53
$755/sf
38
22
Aug 1
46
$736/sf
36
29
Aug 8
43
$746/sf
41
32
Aug 15
37
$775/sf
37
34
Aug 22
36
$766/sf
41
33

The $1,500,000 – $2,000,000 Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
Avg. DOM
# of Pendings
Jan 3, 2022
8
$842/sf
52
36
Jan 10
13
$751/sf
28
29
Jan 17
16
$736/sf
33
27
Jan 24
16
$801/sf
17
27
Jan 31
15
$696/sf
14
34
Feb 7
15
$765/sf
17
34
Feb 14
10
$726/sf
19
38
Feb 21
19
$715/sf
15
39
Feb 28
9
$660/sf
12
46
Mar 7
16
$789/sf
15
46
Mar 14
17
$837/sf
8
44
Mar 21
18
$867/sf
11
43
Mar 28
14
$838/sf
15
48
Apr 4
18
$762/sf
25
42
Apr 11
23
$774/sf
15
39
Apr 18
22
$792/sf
17
41
Apr 25
18
$810/sf
20
41
May 2
27
$809/sf
17
37
May 9
33
$837/sf
17
46
May 16
39
$793/sf
19
44
May 23
43
$793/sf
22
44
May 30
36
$843/sf
23
36
Jun 6
43
$817/sf
23
41
Jun 13
49
$845/sf
24
42
Jun 20
57
$817/sf
24
41
Jun 27
75
$807/sf
24
35
Jul 4
70
$827/sf
27
33
Jul 11
71
$812/sf
30
38
Jul 18
74
$793/sf
32
35
Jul 25
83
$787/sf
34
29
Aug 1
81
$780/sf
35
31
Aug 8
76
$796/sf
40
30
Aug 15
80
$789/sf
42
38
Aug 22
78
$801/sf
46
38

The $2,000,000 – $3,000,000 Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
Avg. DOM
# of Pendings
Jan 3, 2022
18
$1,080/sf
127
43
Jan 10
23
$1,038/sf
85
37
Jan 17
26
$1,044/sf
80
41
Jan 24
28
$1,015/sf
37
42
Jan 31
22
$949/sf
38
47
Feb 7
26
$919/sf
29
42
Feb 14
22
$997/sf
37
49
Feb 21
21
$966/sf
33
54
Feb 28
26
$905/sf
32
57
Mar 7
29
$922/sf
28
57
Mar 14
20
$852/sf
26
58
Mar 21
17
$928/sf
26
60
Mar 28
34
$927/sf
12
65
Apr 4
32
$927/sf
20
69
Apr 11
44
$910/sf
17
62
Apr 18
48
$997/sf
19
66
Apr 25
42
$1,092/sf
18
73
May 2
54
$995/sf
19
70
May 9
61
$910/sf
20
73
May 16
64
$977/sf
22
69
May 23
82
$953/sf
25
59
May 30
78
$951/sf
27
56
Jun 6
94
$963/sf
27
58
Jun 13
98
$961/sf
28
70
Jun 20
91
$935/sf
32
59
Jun 27
111
$894/sf
30
60
Jul 4
112
$910/sf
33
60
Jul 11
122
$912/sf
34
56
Jul 18
103
$893/sf
39
68
Jul 25
108
$883/sf
40
63
Aug 1
110
$887/sf
41
58
Aug 8
124
$941/sf
39
50
Aug 15
114
$945/sf
45
51
Aug 22
123
$948/sf
42
46

The $3,000,000 – $4,000,000 Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
Avg. DOM
# of Pendings
Jan 3, 2022
19
$1,230/sf
90
26
Jan 10
22
$1,210/sf
76
25
Jan 17
19
$1,207/sf
86
23
Jan 24
17
$1,129/sf
92
24
Jan 31
21
$1,172/sf
70
22
Feb 7
19
$1,169/sf
67
25
Feb 14
19
$1,234/sf
65
28
Feb 21
21
$1,279/sf
69
28
Feb 28
22
$1,214/sf
64
25
Mar 7
27
$1,295/sf
60
24
Mar 14
27
$1,201/sf
65
27
Mar 21
23
$1,282/sf
69
31
Mar 28
25
$1,253/sf
67
30
Apr 4
30
$1,199/sf
61
27
Apr 11
32
$1,174/sf
62
31
Apr 18
33
$1,216/sf
68
31
Apr 25
33
$1,219/sf
63
33
May 2
37
$1,164/sf
50
36
May 9
33
$1,132/sf
57
32
May 16
40
$1,119/sf
53
32
May 23
40
$1,135/sf
57
27
May 30
40
$1,178/sf
61
28
Jun 6
43
$1,224/sf
56
28
Jun 13
48
$1,184/sf
52
28
Jun 20
52
$1,117/sf
53
26
Jun 27
60
$1,120/sf
51
19
Jul 4
55
$1,127/sf
58
23
Jul 11
68
$1,140/sf
47
26
Jul 18
66
$1,206/sf
52
25
Jul 25
65
$1,200/sf
54
26
Aug 1
59
$1,191/sf
60
26
Aug 8
58
$1,209/sf
63
22
Aug 15
59
$1,166/sf
62
21
Aug 22
57
$1,163/sf
60
28

The $4,000,000+ Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
Avg. DOM
# of Pendings
Jan 3, 2022
100
$1,884/sf
128
30
Jan 10
105
$1,864/sf
113
29
Jan 17
109
$1,763/sf
110
34
Jan 24
105
$2,130/sf
114
42
Jan 31
102
$2,114/sf
118
53
Feb 7
109
$2,000/sf
108
50
Feb 14
108
$2,005/sf
109
47
Feb 21
113
$2,008/sf
103
43
Feb 28
111
$1,991/sf
101
47
Mar 7
115
$1,904/sf
91
39
Mar 14
121
$1,893/sf
95
43
Mar 21
116
$1,905/sf
97
44
Mar 28
104
$1,966/sf
97
59
Apr 4
103
$1,929/sf
97
56
Apr 11
106
$1,906/sf
97
55
Apr 18
108
$1,874/sf
100
51
Apr 25
116
$1,829/sf
97
38
May 2
117
$1,781/sf
95
32
May 9
116
$1,831/sf
96
36
May 16
124
$1,854/sf
91
39
May 23
125
$1,855/sf
92
36
May 30
129
$1,706/sf
93
39
Jun 6
131
$1,740/sf
89
33
Jun 13
132
$1,793/sf
86
38
Jun 20
148
$1,772/sf
84
35
Jun 27
153
$1,779/sf
87
29
Jul 4
155
$1,777/sf
82
25
Jul 11
164
$1,759/sf
85
26
Jul 18
170
$1,740/sf
86
26
Jul 25
178
$1,701/sf
84
27
Aug 1
180
$1,696/sf
85
28
Aug 8
173
$1,715/sf
91
24
Aug 15
168
$1,746/sf
89
32
Aug 22
160
$1,718/sf
92
29

NSDCC Weekly New Listings and New Pendings

Week
New Listings
New Pendings
Total Actives
Total Pendings
Jan 3, 2022
17
14
152
164
Jan 10
39
18
167
142
Jan 17
34
29
179
145
Jan 24
41
40
173
157
Jan 31
43
40
173
182
Feb 7
43
38
179
179
Feb 14
44
49
168
193
Feb 21
51
38
180
197
Feb 28
39
39
179
205
Mar 7
54
37
191
195
Mar 14
48
51
195
196
Mar 21
39
46
178
207
Mar 28
53
50
185
224
Apr 4
46
40
190
220
Apr 11
61
39
221
213
Apr 18
41
46
224
212
Apr 25
50
43
224
205
May 2
76
37
256
196
May 9
59
46
262
207
May 16
78
48
286
200
May 23
61
42
312
192
May 30
54
44
307
183
Jun 6
70
31
338
183
Jun 13
60
41
354
202
Jun 20
71
25
388
177
Jun 27
73
26
433
159
Jul 4
55
39
432
158
Jul 11
55
24
471
161
Jul 18
49
35
459
168
Jul 25
60
20
480
158
Aug 1
55
35
473
161
Aug 8
40
32
466
151
Aug 15
51
32
451
168
Aug 22
43
29
445
166

Del Mar Mesa New

by | Aug 21, 2022 | Builders, Carmel Valley | 5 comments

For new homes, it’s mostly just infill projects now in the prime areas so even the big boys are looking for smaller projects. It looks like Toll picked this up for $12 million last October, and they are going to build 4,765sf to 6,036sf houses that are the same or similar to what they built at Palomar in PHR.

Yesterday, they sent emails saying prices will start at $3,500,000 for the 25 houses, which means they should get into the $4-millions pretty quick. Here’s what their biggest model in PHR looked like just four years ago, which coincidentally is up for resale, priced at $5,995,000:



https://www.tollbrothers.com/luxury-homes-for-sale/California/Del-Mar-Mesa-Estates

Prediction on SD Pricing

by | Aug 20, 2022 | Forecasts, Frenzy, Sales and Price Check | 4 comments

These guys are among the most negative in the business, so if they have San Diego County home prices changing –3.65% between now and the end of 2023, and then -2.9% by the end of 2024, then prices in the better areas will be positive.

The most likely to happen is that we’ll see a few wild sales at the extreme ends, and those will get the headlines.  The rest will be +/-5% of the comps.  Most will just fumble along – just like during the frenzy – with little or no quality data or advice.

https://fortune.com/2022/08/15/falling-home-prices-to-hit-these-housing-markets-in-2023-and-2024/

 

Zillow Recalibrates

by | Aug 19, 2022 | 2023, Why You Should List With Jim, Zillow | 12 comments

After my blog post yesterday publicizing the confidence Zillow has in our local markets, guess what arrived today.  Yep, their first installment of their next round (it usually takes 2-3 weeks to receive the full set):

At the end of July, their prediction for Carmel Valley was for a 12.9% increase in values over the next year.  Today, their forecast is for +1.7% appreciation over the next year for one of the strongest markets in the county.  It means that many other areas are going to have a negative number.

On July 11th, Rob Dawg said:

Don’t panic.

If you do panic, panic first.

I can get your home on the market today!

Sputter or Frenzy in 2023?

by | Aug 19, 2022 | 2023, Forecasts, Graphs of Market Indicators, Spring Kick | 2 comments

I think we can say that summer is over, and the off-season is here.

How will the rest of 2022 play out, and what will be the effect on the 2023 Selling Season?

We know that the local NSDCC sales counts will be low for the rest of 2022. Last year we had 136 closings between August 1-15, and this year we’ve had 65.  If we keep having about half of the 2021 sales, then our total sales between August and December will be 594, or an average of 119 per month!

It could look something like this green line:

We will probably have fewer listings than ever in 2H22, but those sellers should be motivated to sell.  If they didn’t need to sell, wouldn’t they be tempted to just wait until spring to go on the open market?

We know that every seller has a load of equity, so if they have to lower their price to sell, they could.  But will they?  We can speculate that if they only had to lower their price by 5%, then they would make the deal. But going lower than 5% off is where the trouble starts – and the seller’s ego gets a vote.

If sellers continue to hold out on price, and sales follow the green line, it will look like a hard landing – and the 2023 selling season could end up being a dud. It would definitely get off to a slower start, and could sputter through the selling season if the inventory is lackluster and priced at retail, or retail-plus.

How likely is that?  Very!

The second-half sellers of 2022 are going to determine our fate for the 2023 Selling Season. Expect next year’s market to be somewhere in the Sputter-to-Frenzy range, guaranteed!

But if you are a buyer, what are you going to do? Wait until 2024?

Let’s re-visit this in January. If sales beat the Green Line, then a more active market in spring is likely!

Here is Bill’s graph of the national sales:

Zillow Local Pricing Forecasts

by | Aug 18, 2022 | Forecasts, Jim's Take on the Market, Zillow | 2 comments

The latest Zillow 1-Year Forecasted Values are still expecting a fairly strong appreciation rate over the next year – these estimates are the same or higher than last month! I can see a path to how this could happen.

The Spring Selling Season gets frenzied up for 3-4 months where buyers and sellers all jump in at the same time, and then the market goes flat for the rest of the year…..kinda like this year!

NW Carlsbad, 92008:

SE Carlsbad, 92009:

NE Carlsbad, 92010:

SW Carlsbad, 92011:

Carmel Valley, 92130:

Del Mar, 92014:

Encinitas, 92024:

La Jolla:

Rancho Santa Fe, 92067:

They do have website-viewer data that nobody else has, and hopefully they are using it to track the activity and make predictions.

Frenzy Monitor – End of Summer

by | Aug 17, 2022 | Frenzy Monitor, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal

The reason for breaking down the active and pending listings by zip code is to give the readers a closer look at their neighborhood stats. We’ve considered a 2:1 ratio of actives-to-pendings to be a healthy market.

Most areas today have the same or better stats as they did last month. The number of active listings hit their peak in August last year, as usual, and it’s likely that the count of unsold listings will drop slowly over the rest of 2022 (and the pendings follow). Prepare for 2-3 months of NSDCC sales being under 100!

NSDCC Actives and Pendings

Taking out the high-enders La Jolla and Rancho Santa Fe, the actives-to-pendings is 2.4-to-1 (291:121), which isn’t bad, all considered.

Mid-February, and the 2023 Selling Season, is only six months away!

Compass 2Q Report

by | Aug 16, 2022 | Compass | 6 comments

Yesterday was the Compass 2Q earnings call (transcript here) and as usual, the headlines focused on the net loss of $101.2 million – more than half of which was stock-based compensation for agents.

Compass has been very generous in their support of agents nationwide, and management is finding ways to effectively scale it back a bit. For example, they won’t be offering stocks as a recruiting tool any more.  But we, the existing agents, aren’t affected by recruitment, and we’d be fine if they didn’t hire another agent! So while the stock may get battered, the agents are doing well.

I’ve mentioned that our annual contract is up in July. There was a time when we discussed Kayla joining Compass in NYC, and during that discussion our CEO offered us a 2-year contract. I brought it up again last month, and he agreed to it.  We signed a two-year extension a couple of weeks ago – we are happy here!

Here are the Compass internal comments about the earnings call:

(more…)

Number of Seniors is Growing

by | Aug 15, 2022 | Boomer Liquidations, Boomers, Local Flavor | 10 comments

It’s probably true that seniors are leading healthier, longer lives and will prefer to age-in-place – which will keep a limit on the number of homes for sale and temper any downdraft in pricing.  What is worse is that the resulting back-up will cause others to stay in their current home forever too!

It was asked on Twitter, ‘how could homes prices get cut in half?’ I said, “Boomers die 10x faster”, which got my Twitter account suspended temporarily.  Let’s see if they do it again!

Reader ‘just some guy’ sent in this UT article – an excerpt:

On Thursday, county officials announced that San Diego County has become the first county in the nation to have all 18 of its eligible hospitals receive the Geriatric Emergency Department (GED) Accreditation.

San Diego County is home to a large population of people age 60 and older, and that demographic is projected to continue growing over the next decade. Today, there are approximately 670,000 county residents in this age group, and by 2030, they are expected to surpass 900,000, said Nick Macchione, director of the county’s Health & Human Services Agency.

Seniors are more likely than almost any other age group to visit the emergency room. The county reports that each year, about 275,000 county seniors make ER visits, which leads to about one-third of all hospital admissions. “That is why it’s critically important to have all our hospitals that are eligible be geriatric certified,” Macchione said.

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