Frenzy Monitor

by | Jan 20, 2023 | 2023, Frenzy Monitor, North County Coastal, NSDCC Pendings, Why You Should List With Jim

The reason for breaking down the active and pending listings by zip code is to give the readers a closer look at their neighborhood stats. We have considered a 2:1 ratio of actives-to-pendings to be a healthy market. When there were more pendings than actives, the frenzy was out of control, and when the number of actives reaches a 3:1 ratio of higher, you know that the market is going the other way.

Lately, the ratio has benefitted from cancellations, and today’s A/P ratio is close to the June level:

The number of choices today is anemic, and not that much different than the frenzy levels.  The combined totals of actives and pendings (underlined in purple above):

Feb: 384

Mar: 386

Jan: 386

Fewer are selling now because of listing exhaustion.

Of the 105 new listings in January:

Number of those on the market in 4Q22, and refreshed as a new listing this month: 44

Number of January listings that were purchased in 2020: 13

Number of January listings that were purchased in 2021 or later: 19

You can say that the inventory of exciting new offerings is extremely tight, especially for those buyers who have been looking since 2020 – you’ve previously seen 72% of the ‘new’ listings.

In 2020, we had 400+ pendings from June 22nd to November 30th – with a peak of 491 pendings on September 7th.

Another Desal Plant?

by | Jan 19, 2023 | Local Flavor | 2 comments

I still haven’t heard anything regarding the development of the Encina Power Plant property…..but there is a new idea for it. The company is also building a device to power your home for 400 years!

Our company ECD Energy Corp is interested in purchasing the NRG property where the Encina smokestack was located. We are interested in building a desalination plant that will provide water to all of Southern California with energy produced by our (soon to be released to the public) electro-kinetic power generation device which does not use any carbon fuel. This would be excellent for the community of San Diego, provide water at a fraction of the cost and revolutionize desalination worldwide-with San Diego as the leader in this new technology. We are a San Diego based company.

See our website at www.ecdenergy.com

NEM3 Changes in Solar

by | Jan 18, 2023 | Tips, Advice & Links | 6 comments

Solar is probably the most desirable upgrade for buyers. Hat tip to Eddie89 for sending this in:

Defying overwhelming public opposition, state officials voted in late 2022 to make drastic changes to California’s rooftop solar rules (called “net energy metering”).

Solar users under NEM3 will get 75% to 80% less from the utility for the extra solar energy they share with the grid. Compensation for that extra energy will go from an average of $.30 / kWh to around $.05 / kWh. NEM3 solar users will also be put on a rate plan with higher evening electricity rates. These changes will extend the payback period for a solar investment from an average of six years to more than ten years.

Here are some FAQs about the changes, often referred to as NEM3:

https://solarrights.org/faqnem3/

What if I have solar and sell my home?

If you are a NEM1 or NEM2 customer and you sell your home, the new owner will take over the remainder of your 20-year lock-in period.

However, this will be different under NEM3, which has a shorter, 9-year lock-in period that is lost when a home is sold. This is another incentive for a home seller that has a fully paid off solar system that’s under either the NEM1 or NEM2 rules. The buyers get more solar bang for their bucks!

Over List, December

by | Jan 17, 2023 | 2023, Jim's Take on the Market, Over List

The number of December sales has been hanging right at 100 and ten closed above list, or 10%!

Percentage Of Sales Closed Above the List Price, by Price Range

If the over-list sales start to increase this spring and get above 20%, then the frenzy feelings are slipping back into the equation. Hopefully they will be accompanied by more than 100 sales, because if that’s all we have during the selling season, there should be real dogfights over the creampuffs.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

NSDCC Average and Median Prices by Month

Month
# of Sales
Avg. LP
Avg. SP
Median LP
Median SP
Feb
224
$2,298,797
$2,257,334
$1,719,500
$1,758,000
March
252
$2,295,629
$2,260,524
$1,800,000
$1,825,000
April
357
$2,396,667
$2,403,962
$1,799,900
$1,828,000
May
300
$2,596,992
$2,581,715
$1,900,000
$1,994,500
June
348
$2,509,175
$2,537,953
$1,900,000
$1,967,500
July
311
$2,421,326
$2,442,738
$1,795,000
$1,855,000
Aug
268
$2,415,075
$2,438,934
$1,897,000
$1,950,000
Sept
278
$2,479,440
$2,445,817
$1,899,000
$1,987,500
Oct
248
$2,754,470
$2,705,071
$1,899,000
$1,899,500
Nov
199
$2,713,693
$2,707,359
$1,999,000
$2,100,000
Dec
189
$2,686,126
$2,664,391
$1,985,000
$2,157,500
Jan
140
$2,828,988
$2,855,213
$2,234,944
$2,240,000
Feb
158
$3,063,331
$3,108,907
$2,149,500
$2,386,500
Mar
207
$3,247,251
$3,337,348
$2,400,000
$2,625,000
Apr
227
$3,190,161
$3,251,604
$2,350,000
$2,550,000
May
215
$2,943,657
$3,032,977
$2,350,000
$2,500,000
Jun
190
$2,864,089
$2,872,690
$2,297,500
$2,350,000
Jul
155
$2,889,612
$2,832,080
$2,299,900
$2,300,000
Aug
164
$2,933,243
$2,830,855
$2,200,000
$2,150,000
Sep
135
$2,650,642
$2,560,314
$2,149,000
$2,040,000
Oct
124
$3,090,320
$2,971,211
$2,272,500
$2,212,500
Nov
115
$2,581,790
$2,459,974
$1,950,000
$1,875,000
Dec
100
$2,859,960
$2,675,549
$2,097,500
$1,892,500

In the months when the average and median sales prices increased, it didn’t mean your home’s value went up – it just means that the set of homes were a little bigger and nicer than other months.

But if you want to make comparisons, then these latest averages and medians are similar to October, 2021.

Attractive Pricing

by | Jan 17, 2023 | 2023, North County Coastal, NSDCC Pendings, Why You Should List With Jim

Yesterday, we saw that there has been a flurry of new pendings this month.

Could it be a result of brave buyers who have lowballed the sellers? We won’t know until they close escrow. But there is a direct correlation between how long a home has been on the market, and the discount expected by the buyers.

Of the current pendings, 49% didn’t lower their list price – and the median days on market for the whole group is 17 days. If the price is attractive, buyers will step up in the first two weeks and pay it, or close.

But once a NSDCC home is on the market for more than a month, and it can be a slippery slope – mostly because the showings dry up.  Unless the sellers are willing to pour (more) money into upgrades, then the next best solution is to lower the price – but once you start lowering, it invites the lowballers. Yes, there were a handful that still went pending without reducing, but those were mostly the high-enders:

You see realtors advertising today to sellers that they need to price their home ‘right’.  It’s a bit insulting, if you ask me, because it means they want you to price it at their price, not yours.

An attractive price is more than just money – it sums up the whole package (location, floor plan, condition, ease of showing, and listing agent competence) and causes the buyers to say, “Hey, that’s a nice deal!”

Last Week’s Pendings

by | Jan 16, 2023 | NSDCC Pendings, Why You Should List With Jim | 1 comment

I suggested that buyers were merely vacationing from the housing hunt over last six months of the year, and some at the open houses this weekend confirmed that it was the case for them.

Last week the median days-on-market for the new pendings in January was 55 days, and it was this week too!  We had as many new pendings in the last week as we had in the first two weeks of January combined!

It appears that buyers didn’t mind the prices so much – they just weren’t looking.

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