According to the latest report from Black Knight, Inc., a well-respected provider of data and analytics for mortgage companies, 6.48 million households have entered a forbearance plan as a result of financial concerns brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic.
Here’s where these homeowners stand right now:
2,543,000 (39%) are current on their payments and have left the program.
625,000 (9%) have paid off their mortgages.
434,000 (7%) have negotiated a repayment plan and have left the program.
2,254,000 (35%) have extended their original forbearance plan.
512,000 (8%) are still in their original forbearance plan.
116,000 (2%) have left the program and are still behind on payments.
This shows that of the almost 3.72 million homeowners who have left the program, only 116,000 (2%) exited while they were still behind on their payments. There are still 2.77 million borrowers in a forbearance program. No one knows for sure how many of those will become foreclosures. There are, however, three major reasons why most experts believe there will not be a tsunami of foreclosures as we saw during the housing crash over a decade ago:
Almost 30% of borrowers in forbearance are still current on their mortgage payments.
Banks likely don’t want to repeat the mistakes of 2008-2012 when they put large numbers of foreclosures on their books. This time, many will instead negotiate a modification plan with the borrower, which will enable households to maintain ownership of the home.
With the significant equity homeowners have today, most can sell their home, rather than get foreclosed.
Will there be foreclosures coming to the market? Yes. There are hundreds of thousands of foreclosures in this country each year. People experience economic hardships, and in some cases, are not able to meet their mortgage obligations.
Here’s the breakdown of new foreclosures over the last three years, prior to the pandemic:
Through the first three quarters of 2020 (the latest data available), there were only 114,780 new foreclosures. If 10% of those currently in forbearance go to foreclosure, 275,000 foreclosures would be added to the market in 2021. That would be an average year as the numbers above show.
Health, unemployment, stairs, taxes, finances, politics…….selling your home is becoming the answer for everything!
More than 2.5 million American homeowners have stopped paying their mortgages, taking advantage of penalty-free forbearance periods offered by lenders.
What happens when the free pass fades away next year?
Not much, and certainly nothing approaching the flood of foreclosures that defined the Great Recession, according to the emerging consensus among economists. While some homeowners are sure to feel the pain of forced sales, housing experts increasingly expect the end of forbearance to be a non-event for the gravity-defying housing market.
That’s largely because home prices have risen sharply during the coronavirus pandemic. As a result, homeowners who find themselves unable to pay their mortgages when their forbearance periods end likely will be able to sell for a profit, rather than going into foreclosure.
“If they have equity, they can always sell off the house and pay the mortgage,” says Ralph DeFranco, global chief economist at mortgage insurance company Arch Capital Services. “It’s not a great outcome, but it’s less terrible than letting the bank take it and sell it.”
An online auction to sell real estate? Maybe it will catch on!
Gone are the days of the quick talking auctioneer, paddles and shouted bids. Today, San Diego County Treasurer-Tax Collector Dan McAllister announced he is moving the annual property tax sale auction online.
“With this new system, people sitting at home can browse and bid on more than 1,600 properties currently available, including timeshares starting at $900,” said McAllister. “The online auction aligns with our ‘e-nitiative’ to make it easier and more efficient to do all business with us electronically.”
The online tax sale auction will take place May 5-10. Interested buyers can register as a bidder beginning April 5, and registration will end April 27. Bidders must put up a $1,000 advance and a nonrefundable $35 bid processing fee.
“Moving this tax sale online will cut our operation costs compared to a live auction,” said McAllister. “We also hope to sell more properties as we open the auction up to bidders outside the San Diego region – even around the world.”
All sales are final, so this is a buyer beware sale. Before April, the Treasurer-Tax Collector’s Office (TTC) encourages everyone to research the selection of available properties by clicking here.
Right now, there are about 1,600 parcels available, roughly four times the number we have put up for auction in previous years. The majority – 1,231 – are timeshares, many with minimum bids as low as $900.
The remaining 393 parcels are improved and unimproved properties, 39 of which have owners living in them. Owners of the for-sale properties can redeem them by paying owed taxes and fees until 5 p.m. on May 4. Over the past five years, TTC notices and late bills to these owners have not been responded to. In early April, each of the properties will be personally contacted by TTC staff who will warn them of the impending sale.
The TTC has not held a tax sale auction since 2015, and on average, sales have generated more than $1.1 million each year.
For those wondering if there will ever be any more bank-owned properties for sale, here is the list of 38 houses between La Jolla and Carlsbad that are owned by lenders, or 3rd parties who purchased them at the trustee sale:
A few are listed for sale, and others are still waiting for occupants to vacate or lawsuits to be settled. This Bressi Ranch home was foreclosed in April, 2014, and just hit the open market last week at what most would consider to be pretty close to retail price:
The former owners had worked the system – they had been in default since 2008, and endured four different trustee-sale dates before finally giving up the ship. In the meantime, the lender probably did everything they could to modify the loans?
I don’t think anybody has to worry about getting foreclosed unless they have significant equity.
Usually WaMu would have a REO agent do the normal routine – vacate, paint, and then list the home on the open market for just under retail.
The bank has already foreclosed – but instead selling of the old-fashioned way, they chose to make it an auction.com exclusive listing.
The house is tenant-occupied and can’t be shown, the buyer is responsible for evicting the tenant, plus the buyer has to pay a 5% premium but there’s no buyer-broker commission is offered (it’s not on the MLS) – and oh, by the way, you have to pay cash:
The opening bid is 42% of the previous value, which looks attractive:
P.S. This was foreclosed in 2011 – the trustee sale’s price that nobody wanted to pay then was $459,088.
What will the sales price be? (assuming the reserve price is reached)
The closest guesser will get 4 tickets to Padres vs Rockies on August 13th!
Here is a video tour of a few houses in the shadow inventory – ones that are bank-owned, but not listed for sale, but presumably coming to market at some point.
Yes, you could consider the 412 SFRs on the NOD and NOT lists as part of the shadow, but who knows if they will ever get foreclosed. The same goes for those in default but not noticed – starting January 1st they can’t receive a notice until they have been through the entire loan-mod process.
As recently as the first half of 2010, there were 270 homes on average being foreclosed every week in San Diego County. Now it’s down to around 100 or so per week:
There are only 16 SFRs in our La Jolla-to-Carlsbad region that are bank-owned, but not on the market. Occupants were probably offered cash-for-keys, but those who prefer to pay lawyer fees instead can probably extend their stay for quite a while.
Here are five off-market REOs, and one listed for $699,900, well under it’s opening bid of $967,632:
Mortgage rates moved up significantly last week. Will rates continue to rise? Expect mortgage rates to go up this week closer to 3.1%. Freddie Mac will release the 30-year fixed mortgage rate tomorrow morning. Stay tuned.
Jim the Realtor is legit - I interviewed three brokers; he said list price should be $100,000 higher than the other two brokers; listed it with him and had all cash (no financing) offer in two days, five day contingency period, closing in two weeks - and it closed at his recommended list price. I could not recommend anyone more than I recommend Jim the Realtor.
When we moved to San Diego in 2005 we rented a big house on Mt. Soledad (La Jolla) with 180 degree ocean views for the same payment as a mortgage on a dump in Chula Vista. Clearly something was wrong. Yet, the media was full of the usual happy-talk nonsense, so I was glad to find Jim's blog. I've followed his honest assessments and data since.
We decided to sell and move to AZ at Thanksgiving. Dec. 1st we met with Jim to sell our home. We closed today (29 days later). Jim orchestrated a feeding frenzy -- we had 25 showings in 2-1/2 days, multiple offers, and sold for well over asking price. I'd say he earned his commission! We have owned and sold homes in 5 different States always using experienced, productive, full-time realtors. Jim outshines them all.
You don't decide to sell and close 29 days later over Christmas (with COVID lockdown) without some miracles. Donna was amazing at performing lots of those miracles and ensuring that everything was done right and on time. They are a terrific team with a very responsive and professional network.
Where do we begin..2020 has been a year for everyone. When COVID hit and shut down both my husband and my businesses, we were left with a mortgage and very little income coming in. We were stressed, scared and felt stuck. We made the hard decision to sell our home and move out of state. We contacted the Klinges' and spent a good hour going over what we hoped we could accomplish. Jim and Donna came over with comps in hand and suggestions on improvements to get our house ready for the market. It was overwhelming to think about, but Donna was there and one step ahead in every scenario. Basically we just approved what they suggested and Donna handled literally everything. We placed our house on the market and within the first day we had multiple offers well above asking price! We couldn't believe it. We were overjoyed! Jim countered the offers to weed through them, and everyone came back with way more. It was amazing, and we are ?? sure it was because of the staging and repairs the Klinges suggested we do.
Due to unforeseen dishonesty from the buyers lender, we hit a big hurdle when trying to close. We had already moved out of state and were shocked when three days before closing the lender dropped a bombshell on the buyers and us. However, Jim and Donna handled it like veterans, not afraid to play hard ball and represent their clients. After a few phone calls with us, and several between Donna and the lender, they had a plan B-Z to make sure we were taken care of. In the end we closed with even more money than we ever thought possible and with very little work from us. The Klinges handled this entire "2020" worthy event with the utmost professionalism and did everything in their power to not only make this as smooth as possible for us, but we also walked away with more money from the sale of the house than we ever hoped for. After working with Jim and Donna, you don't ever use anyone else. They are hands down the best team to represent you in any scenario.
Working with Klinge Realty Group was a great experience! They are very responsive, professional and knowledgable about the real estate market! I would definitely recommend Klinge Realty Group.
Jim and Donna Klinge made the sale of our condo extraordinarily easy. They know the market and gave us sound advice backed by details and very considerable experience, reflected both in the initial pricing and subsequent negotiations. They work together as a team and are always available to talk. We had a few challenges with our property and they were able to coordinate the resolution to everything, including items that I would not think would ordinarily be their responsibility to handle. They made the whole process effortless on our part. They are folks with high integrity and we cannot recommend them highly enough.
Review for Member: Donna Klinge
I cannot believe there are no reviews of Donna yet, ugh!! She is the secret sauce of the Jim Klinge/Donna Klinge combo! I will touch on Jim here, but Donna is why I'm so totally loyal to these two (no offense to Jim :)).
I consider myself a rather savvy buyer/seller. I've bought/sold 7 times in about 15 years. On the buy side, Jim is the PERFECT combo of: completely digitally savvy (he will pull data all day long until you feel comfortable with your chosen house, area, school district, anticipated appreciation rate...anything!), he's super well respected and known in the area by other agents, an amazingly cool but strategic negotiator, is totally devoid of desperation for a sale/commission, and more.
Then once you get into contract phase, Donna literally handles every last and final detail in a concierge-like manner -- totally shielding you from the daily back and forth, noodling and annoyances of the buyer's requests. She solves it ALL; it's miraculous what that woman accomplishes over and above what is even expected in a buy/sell transaction.
On the sell side, Jim and Donna do the same, but even moreso. Donna in particular truly takes everything off your plate: she'll manage getting the house painted, the carpets replaced, she'll go on site (as she Jim both did for me when selling our rental properties) to work with the renters and make sure the house is ready to show -- freeing me to have to take time off of work to do so. They work with A+ integrity, too, so you know you are serving all parties fairly and lawfully throughout.
A home purchase/sale is the most considered you'll ever make. HIRE A SAVVY AGENT, not a friend!, and get what you need out of the transaction. Jim and Donna are our agents for life.
Jim and Donna Klinge are by far the most professional, personable and responsive realtors I have ever worked with. They provide VIP concierge level service in every area of the process of selling your home. My home was marketed so successfully that we received an offer the day after our first and only open house. Thanks to Jim's pricing and negotiating, our house is now the highest sold in our community. Jim's vast experience means he has worked with several realtors and knows the market all over north county. Donna is AMAZING in processing everything in the transaction. She scheduled trades people to work on the house in preparation for the sale as well as the repairs needed before closing. She communicated clearly every step of the way about what would be happening. She took the weight off my shoulders for the whole process. I will always use Jim and Donna for my future real estate needs and I whole heartedly recommend them to anyone buying or selling a home.
Jim and the team at Klinge Reality are without a doubt the best in the business! Not only was Jim helpful and extremely knowledgeable, he was patient and determined to help me find my first home. Jim and his team have been in the business for many years, and it shows. Jim is a wealth of knowledge and was my biggest proponent despite the temperature of the competitive market. I ended up getting the perfect property in my dream neighborhood all thanks to Jim. From the day my offer was accepted, Donna was a real lifesaver. She was extremely helpful, responsive, and knowledgeable when it came to every minute detail, and held my hand through the process. As a first time home buyer I had no idea what the process would entail, but Donna curtailed every concern I came across and made the escrow process feel seamless. Jim and Donna provided me the best home buying experience, and I am very grateful for all they did for me. It was truly a pleasure to work with Jim and Donna and I am already looking forward to the next time we work together!
Review for Member: Richard Morgan
Richard is an amazing realtor! He has high integrity and genuinely cares about his clients and their needs. Richard paid close attention to what I was seeking in a home and was very patient in our search to find it. I would highly recommend Richard and will use him for future transactions. Truly a different kind of realtor experience!
Could not be happier with my experience with Jim and his team. He helped me sell a very unique and challenging property. Throughout the entire process he was always available, honest, transparent, trustworthy, and always put my interests as a seller first. A (rare) true professional! During close of escrow Jim went above and beyond to complete the deal. It would not have been possible without his experience, fantastic team, and pure dedication. Highly recommended!
Thanks Jim and Donna Klinge!