Here’s a reminder of the last crisis (this video is from February, 2011), when we all thought foreclosures would last forever. We listed for $709,000 and it sold for $675,000 in July, 2011 after 39 days on the market. It resold in August, 2018 for $980,000:
REO listings have increased lately around NSDCC, though they are still a small fraction of the overall marketplace (there have been 2,238 detached-home sales closed this year between Carlsbad and La Jolla).
The short-sale listings coming to market haven’t changed much all year, which would be the first place you would see the effect of mortgage servicers getting tougher with deadbeats:
Type of Listing
Jan 1 – June 30
July 1 – present
This guy borrowed $3.75 million to do a spectacular remodel on this Del Mar home (the house with the glass-bottom pool), but he wasn’t going to give it away. The original list price was $6,750,000 in October, 2013, and dropped to $5,950,000 before getting foreclosed in June. The bank promptly listed for $5,495,000, and sold it for $5,210,000 last month:
There is some hope that lenders and servicers are increasing the flow now that prices are so much higher than before, and it would make sense that they would cherry-pick the properties on which they could make a profit.
Just when you think you’re in for another routine day at the plant, more turbulence. Wifey thinks I’m getting too aggressive on the blog, but like another agent said today – if you’re going to be a successful realtor in this market, you gotta be able to deal with the hustlers, slimeballs, and grifters that abound.
Here’s another – a tenant who paid 1.5 months rent, has stayed for six, filed a burglary report against the homeowner/landlord and then got a restraining order against him to ice his free-rent program.
The REO tsunami dripped another drop today, I was assigned this property whose trustee sale was just last Thursday, November 12th.
The former owner was from Newbury Park, which, according to wiki, has the highest median prices in Ventura County, and among the most affluent areas in the country. It is typical for these types of folks to come to Oceanside, thinking they are going make a killing on beach real estate.
This is a unique property, so let’s have a contest!
Guess the eventual sales price!
On the tax rolls it’s 3 br/2 ba, 1,300sf on a 1,500sf lot. There aren’t any great comps, and no appraisals or BPOs have been completed, so I don’t know what the list price will be. But the opening bid at the trustee sale last week was $513,000 with no takers.
The vacant lot in the video below had listed for $499,000 but had to get down to $275,000 before going pending (sellers paid $399,000 in 2004), and the new condos featured in a previous video have all closed between $405,000 and $781,000, so it appears there is still an appetite for beach real estate in Oceanside!
You can see photos at this link, where they are asking $1,900 per week in winter, and $2,000 per week for summer rentals:
We already saw the first ride out to determine occupancy, now that the locksmith has come by and changed the locks, somebody has to verify that there is ‘personal property’ like the locksmith said.
Video Trip Two, to east Valley Center:
My task is to take photos of the alleged ‘personal property’ inside the house, and post a notice to warn the former owners that they have 18 days to remove their junk. Of course, the locks are changed, so if they do call, guess who has to open the door for them?
Joseph and Chassity Myers are among the two million buyers eligible for the credit this year. The newlyweds heard they could get money from the government for something they were tempted to do anyway.
“It was a no-brainer,” said Mr. Myers, a commercial underwriter. “Owning something is the American family dream.”
The couple bought a two-bedroom condominium here in the spring for $171,000 and amended their 2008 taxes immediately, receiving their windfall by direct deposit a few weeks later.
Their home is now a monument to the government’s generosity. They bought a leather couch, a kitchen table, a bed, television stand, china cabinet, kitchen table, coffee table, grill and patio set.
“We did exactly what the government wanted us to do,” said Ms. Myers, a third grade teacher. “We stimulated the economy.”
Buyers like these above will probably go on to live happily ever after, and good for them. But the $8,000 tax credit is small potatoes in the stimulus world, compared to what’s coming.
The biggest stimulus package in the history of the world is upon us.
“Stealing One From The Bank”
As more bank-owned properties hit the open market, today’s buyers, already frustrated with the lack of inventory, will swarm to new meat – the well-priced REO listings.
Carmel Valley is the best example, because the product line is so similar – it’s the only place in North SD County where all you see are tract homes built in the last 25 years. The CV pricing last month was $327/sf for the 38 detached homes that closed in August, which has been steady.
There are 90 properties on the default list in 92130.
If 30 to 60 of them hit the open market over the next six months at $300/sf to $320/sf, they will IGNITE the marketplace.
Buyers will be scrambling to buy, because they won’t be paying any more than they had planned to pay, even after the overbids, and they’ll have the bragging rights that they ‘stole one from the bank’.
Look at how crazy people are about $8,000 – do you think they’ll be even crazier about stealing one from the bank? Bet on it.
ARE THE REOs COMING?
This morning I received my third REO assignment in the last 2.5 weeks:
1070 Buena Vista Way, Carlsbad
4 br/3 ba, 2,288sf
Lot = 7,000sf
SP: $800,000 2/06 100% financed
LP: $650,000 short sale that failed
Trustee Sale O-Bid: $535,500 9/14/09
Remarks from last listing: Extremely interesting 2 story home west of I-5 in olde Carlsbad.Approx 2300 sqft. Home features gargoyles, hardwood floors, french doors, vaulted ceilings, dual pane windows, new appliances, ocean view wrought iron, built in storage. Additional detached 600sqft building in back.Walking distance to beaches and ‘The Village’.
The REOs are coming – look for their sales to take off like a rocket. Yesterday we saw that there were 657 bank-owned properties listed as actives, the contingent and pending REOs total 1,584. Do you think buyers will flock to a 2,288sf house west of the I-5 freeway in downtown Carlsbad that has an extra unit for mid-$500,000s, even with the gargoyles? Count on it.
People love bank deals – we don’t need any other stimulus than a pure marketplace!
Gibson, Ford, Brock, Seaver, Kaline, Morgan, Niekro, Lasorda, Sutton and now Hammerin Hank. We’ve lost some of the greatest to ever do it this year. @TommyLasorda is gonna have a hell of a roster to manage up there. #RIPLegends
Comments on December Existing Home Sales https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2021/01/comments-on-december-existing-home-sales.html The delay in the buying season has pushed the seasonally adjusted number to very high levels. For example, this number of sales, (NSA) in July, would have given a 5.3 million, as opposed to 6.76 million SAAR.
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