South Carlsbad/Encinitas 1967

Here’s a sky shot of the South Carlsbad/Encinitas region in 1967. The La Costa Resort opened in 1965 (in the center of the photo) and another nine holes was added on the north end in 1984.

Leucadia Blvd. didn’t go through until later, and Rancho Santa Fe Road goes up through San Marcos but there isn’t much else east of El Camino Real!

This is the full 1800×1800 image and should allow you to zoom in on desktops and iphones. I’m not having any luck with the pixel phones yet though!

Olivenhain Mid-Level

With $2,000,000 fast becoming the entry point for older tract houses, this is a good example of what to expect at the next level up – this closed for $3,180,000.

There have already been eight Olivenhain sales that closed higher this year!

San Diego Case-Shiller Index, March

Our YoY change is more negative this month because in early-2022 it was flying – the local Case-Shiller Index went up 11% between January and April last year!

We had the second-highest MoM gain in the country:

Here’s another guy who ignores the seasonal trends and instead just declares that price declines are over:

“The modest increases in home prices we saw a month ago accelerated in March 2023,” said Craig J. Lazzara, managing director at S&P DJI in a release.

“Two months of increasing prices do not a definitive recovery make, but March’s results suggest that the decline in home prices that began in June 2022 may have come to an end.”

Note the headline:

Memorial Day

Originally called Decoration Day, from the early tradition of decorating graves with flowers, wreaths and flags, Memorial Day is a day for remembrance of those who have died in service to our country. It was first widely observed on May 30, 1868 to commemorate the sacrifices of Civil War soldiers, by proclamation of Gen. John A. Logan of the Grand Army of the Republic, an organization of former Union sailors and soldiers.

During that first national commemoration, former Union Gen. and sitting Ohio Congressman James Garfield made a speech at Arlington National Cemetery, after which 5,000 participants helped to decorate the graves of the more than 20,000 Union and Confederate soldiers who were buried there.

This national event galvanized efforts to honor and remember fallen soldiers that began with local observances at burial grounds in several towns throughout the United States following the end of the Civil War, such as the May 1, 1865 gathering in Charleston, South Carolina organized by freed slaves to pay tribute and give proper burial to Union troops.

In 1873, New York was the first state to designate Memorial Day as a legal holiday. By the late 1800s, many more cities and communities observed Memorial Day, and several states had declared it a legal holiday.

After World War I, it became an occasion for honoring those who died in all of America’s wars and was then more widely established as a national holiday throughout the United States.

In 1971, Congress passed the Uniform Monday Holiday Act and established that Memorial Day was to be commemorated on the last Monday of May.

Memorial Day is commemorated at Arlington National Cemetery each year with a ceremony in which a small American flag is placed on each grave. Traditionally, the President or Vice President lays a wreath at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier.

This video starts when the Blue Angels are at their closest point together:

All gave some and some gave all – thank you!

Inventory Watch

The stacking up of unsold listings took a breather this week.

It was the best week of May for both the lowest number of new listings (43) and most new pendings (37), which is remarkable, considering it was a graduation/holiday week for many. Hopefully it’s a sign that the next two weeks will be very productive!

As long as the pendings count stays in a tight range (like it has since February), and the higher-end market keeps flowing, there aren’t any big concerns. The listings and sales below aren’t directly related because some of the closed sales were listings from 2022, but it shows that the higher-end market is doing well:

Generally-speaking, the NSDCC pricing has been fairly steady too:

Grab a house before you go on vacation!


Debt Ceiling Deal

It’s not passed yet but this is earlier than I expected so hopefully they can get it done in time.

Mortgage rates are like gasoline prices though – quick to go up, and sloowww to come down.

If they can pass this by Wednesday/Thursday and rates improve a little by the weekend, we might get a surge of buyer interest over the next couple of weeks. Home buyers who want to get into their new house before school starts need to secure something soon because many if not most sellers need a 30-60 day rentback after close – which after you count a 30-day escrow, it means that many buyers are already scheduling to pick up their keys at the end of summer.

I think there are waves or surges in the market, and not in a cosmic way. It’s just natural that some weeks are better than others for pursuing a new home, and people work in their searches around holidays and other family/work obigations. It would make sense that the same market forces are affecting the entire buyer pool in a similar direction.

Based on my previous guess below from March, we might be at the tail end of the selling season, but the demand has been strong enough that we should have some gas left in the tank. The next couple of weeks will probably be the high point for the rest of the year though.

Best Places to Retire 2023

You have to wonder about a list that that has no California metro areas in their Top 100, but includes New York City at #14 and Flint, Michigan at #64. 

To identify the best places to retire, U.S. News analyzed data for the 150 largest metropolitan areas in the U.S. to assess how well they meet Americans’ retirement needs and expectations. Top criteria include the happiness of local residents, housing affordability, tax rates and health care quality.

San Diego finally did make this list at #93, just ahead of Cleveland and Tulsa:

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