Today’s local Case-Shiller reading for November is the fifth in a row that reflects the much-higher mortgage rates. The index has dropped 9% since May – don’t be surprised if in the future we see a similar trend of enthusiasm in springtime, and doldrums in the off-season:
San Diego Non-Seasonally-Adjusted CSI changes
Observation Month
SD CSI
M-o-M chg
Y-o-Y chg
Jan ’21
301.72
+1.4%
+14.3%
Feb
310.62
+2.9%
+17.1%
Mar
320.81
+3.3%
+19.1%
Apr
331.47
+3.3%
+21.6%
May
341.05
+2.9%
+24.7%
Jun
349.78
+2.6%
+27.2%
Jul
355.33
+1.6%
+27.8%
Aug
357.11
+0.5%
+26.2%
Sep
359.88
+0.8%
+24.9%
Oct
363.80
+1.1%
+24.2%
Nov
367.62
+1.1%
+24.3%
Dec
374.48
+1.8%
+25.9%
Jan ’22
383.92
+2.5%
+27.2%
Feb
401.45
+4.6%
+29.2%
Mar
416.64
+3.8%
+29.9%
Apr
426.08
+2.3%
+28.5%
May
428.32
+0.5%
+25.6%
Jun
425.26
-0.7%
+21.6%
Jul
414.03
-2.6%
+16.5%
Aug
402.62
-2.8%
+12.7%
Sep
394.18
-2.1%
+9.5%
Oct
391.34
-0.7%
+7.6%
Nov
385.37
-1.5%
+4.9%
If the index keeps dropping over the next few months (likely), it should mean that it will get down to the late-2021 numbers. Will that be enough to impress buyers that prices are reasonable now? Or will they just go out and buy because it’s springtime?
Thirty days into the new year and I have no concerns about the market – other than the nagging low inventory. As recently as 2019, we had 419 listings in January, and this month we won’t get half that many!
Things are improving on schedule – the actives’ count is growing (needed), and the pendings are up 38%:
NSDCC Active & Pending Listings on Jan 2 and on Jan 30
Price Range
NSDCC Actives & Pendings, Jan 2
NSDCC Actives & Pendings, Jan 30
0 – $1.5M
22/15
23/25
$1.5M – $2.0M
45/18
40/34
$2.0M – $3.0M
52/30
54/34
$3.0M – $4.0M
29/6
37/6
$4.0M+
121/21
120/30
Totals
263/89
272/123
For our contest participants, there have been 159 new listings this month. It means our contest should wind up around 180-190 listings, which is a little higher than expected (the median guess was 160).
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Last week, we lost a big agent to a start-up brokerage, and I hate to see people go. I’m not sure what happened in their case, but typically agents don’t try to re-negotiate with their current brokerage, instead they just leave for the greener grass without notice.
What should be considered is how likely it will be that single agency and off-market sales will grow as the market constricts further. The count today is probably under 10% of the total sales, but once it catches fire, those non-traditional sales could rise to 20% or 30% quickly.
Don’t underestimate how desperate it could get for agents, and how management will play a key role in pushing for in-house sales. It will be the same as with commercial real estate; where properties get sold in-house and public exposure to new listings is an afterthought.
This threat is the main reason why I work at Compass (of many). It’s not here yet, but it’s coming – and every agent will want to be with #1 as this evolves. We want to hire more agents on our team. If you would consider joining us, contact Donna the sales manager!
It looks like Zillow is sticking with their relatively flat forecasts for our local areas. It’s probably realistic if appreciation goes like it did in 2022 – everything gained in the spring selling season is given back in the off-season. Note how the ‘typical home value’ is still higher than it was a year ago in every area:
Ok, ok you want to downsize but you don’t want to bake in the desert – plus you like living in San Diego. Aren’t there any newer, smaller choices around here?
Lennar has purchased three local golf courses and are on their way to building them out. The development of the Carmel Mountain Ranch golf course off the I-15 freeway (above) faced some resistance from the locals, but they beat that back and a gated senior community is now underway.
The Junipers is a senior community (55+) in Rancho Penasquitos and will include a mix of 455 single-family detached-homes and townhouses for sale. There will also be 81 attached homes for rent for low-income seniors households. It will include a 2.87-acre public park and a 2.82-acre loop trail.
Pricing isn’t out in the open but I’m guessing it starts just under a million.
Another new-home development is called the Farm, and it’s right off Rancho Bernardo Road. It isn’t solely for seniors, but they have a couple of one-story plans. Here’s a quick tour of their 2,500sf one-story home under construction:
I was confident that in the last few months of 2022 we would reach at least 100 detached-home sales between Carlsbad and La Jolla. We are up to 102 in December, after closing 118 in November!
I wasn’t so hopeful about January.
As of today, there have been 68 closings this month.
We could have more sales, because there are 269 active listings sitting around. But only those that deserve it (those that do everything right) will be selling now.
Those that get it right are being rewarded…..they are selling! You could say that pricing is on an upward trend too, if you rely on the lame and inadequate median sales price to guide your decisions:
NSDCC Monthly Sales and Pricing
Month
# of Sales
Average SP
Avg. SF
Median SP
Med. SF
November
118
$2,447,009
3,094sf
$1,887,500
2,647sf
December
102
$2,682,523
3,064sf
$1,897,500
2,596sf
January
68 (so far)
$3,206,653
3,646sf
$2,222,500
2,833sf
Dec-Jan MoM Diff
-33%
+20%
+19%
+17%
+9%
Unfortunately, the dated and backward-looking Case-Shiller Index comes out next Tuesday, and the doomers will use it to convince you that the market is coming apart.
But because sellers are holding out, only the homes that deserve to sell will be closing in 2023, and they should get pretty close to what they want, price-wise. Except those represented by desperate agents who fail miserably at doing everything right, and then take a lowball offer.
With the lower number of sales, don’t be surprised if the median sales price fluctuates wildly.
Our new listing is perfect for the extended family who want to live the good life in the country!
16390 Whispering Oaks Drive, West Ramona
6 br/4 ba, 3,801sf
YB: 1984
2.35 acres
Gated Community
Full Solar
Get away from it all and move to the country! Bring everyone with you too! This 4br/2ba one-story house has newer kitchen and baths, full solar, pool, views of the hills, circular driveway with lots of parking (RVs!), plus TWO ADUs – including a new tiny house – all on 2.35 acres! Total of 6 bedrooms and 4 full bathrooms – perfect for multi-gen! Gated community on the west end and only 3.5 miles from Poway Road.
LP = $1,250,000 – now pending!
This is the west end of Ramona, just 3.5 miles from Poway Rd!
