I was confident that in the last few months of 2022 we would reach at least 100 detached-home sales between Carlsbad and La Jolla. We are up to 102 in December, after closing 118 in November!

I wasn’t so hopeful about January.

As of today, there have been 68 closings this month.

We could have more sales, because there are 269 active listings sitting around.  But only those that deserve it (those that do everything right) will be selling now.

Those that get it right are being rewarded…..they are selling!  You could say that pricing is on an upward trend too, if you rely on the lame and inadequate median sales price to guide your decisions:

NSDCC Monthly Sales and Pricing

Month
# of Sales
Average SP
Avg. SF
Median SP
Med. SF
November
118
$2,447,009
3,094sf
$1,887,500
2,647sf
December
102
$2,682,523
3,064sf
$1,897,500
2,596sf
January
68 (so far)
$3,206,653
3,646sf
$2,222,500
2,833sf
Dec-Jan MoM Diff
-33%
+20%
+19%
+17%
+9%

Unfortunately, the dated and backward-looking Case-Shiller Index comes out next Tuesday, and the doomers will use it to convince you that the market is coming apart.

But because sellers are holding out, only the homes that deserve to sell will be closing in 2023, and they should get pretty close to what they want, price-wise. Except those represented by desperate agents who fail miserably at doing everything right, and then take a lowball offer.

With the lower number of sales, don’t be surprised if the median sales price fluctuates wildly.

Here are Bill’s thoughts on sales and pricing:

https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/has-housing-bottomed

author avatar
Jim the Realtor
Jim is a long-time local realtor who comments daily here on his blog, bubbleinfo.com which began in September, 2005. Stick around!

Pin It on Pinterest