Culdesac Tempe

It makes sense to build communities in the desert and run them off solar. In the video, she says they want to build one for 100,000 people!

Phoenix, that featureless and ever-spreading tundra of concrete, has been called “the world’s least sustainable city.” It has been characterized as a “sprawling, suburbanite wasteland” and “a monument to man’s arrogance.” The Onion has darkly predicted that by 2050, “most of Earth’s landmass” will be swallowed by the encroaching Phoenix exurbs. The Walk Score index ranks the place as the second-worst big city in America for pedestrians, and traversing it has been described as “a slog through a desert, plus the occasional McDonald’s.”

The Phoenix metropolitan area is, in other words, the last place you would expect a real estate developer to spend $170 million creating what it calls the first-ever car-free neighborhood built from scratch in the United States.

The development, Culdesac Tempe, is a 17-acre lot just across the Salt River from Phoenix.

Currently a mess of dust and heavy equipment, the site will eventually feature 761 apartments, 16,000 square feet of retail, 1,000 residents — and exactly zero places for them to park. The people who live there will be contractually forbidden to park a car on site or on nearby streets, part of a deal the development company struck with the government to assuage fears of clogged parking in surrounding neighborhoods.

Culdesac Tempe is a proving ground for a start-up also called Culdesac, which was founded in San Francisco and moved to Tempe during the pandemic. Started in 2018 by two native Arizonans, the company announced the project last year to a mixture of curiosity and doubt. Urbanists cheered it as a bold and important step toward a future with fewer cars, while suburban developers said the concept could never work on a large scale.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/31/business/culdesac-tempe-phoenix-sprawl.html

From their website:

We’re undergoing the first major shift in transportation since the interstate highway system. Private car ownership is giving ground to transportation that is on-demand, shared, and (on average) more environmentally friendly. That 1-mile trip to get ice cream is increasingly happening on shared bikes, electric scooters, or on foot. Lyft Shared and Uber Pool make daily trips more affordable. And there is a renewed interest in public transit investment, including the expansion of the light rail in Phoenix.

People have responded by making different personal choices. In 1983, 46% of 16-year-olds had licenses. Today, it’s just 24%.  Fewer cars, less roadway, far less parking. New possibilities for how we live.

https://culdesac.com/

Inventory Watch


Even though we had more pendings than actives again this week (62 vs 46), it doesn’t look like the total number of pendings is going to exceed the actives by the end of the year.

The pendings count has really dropped off in the last three weeks – more than last year – and it isn’t just because so many sales are closing. Buyers are putting up a fight, and sales are getting harder to close.

Get Good Help!

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NSDCC New Sales Records

It looks like we are going to set new records in every category this year – and not by a little!

NSDCC Annual Sales & Pricing

Year
# of Sales
Median Sales Price
Median DOM
# of $2M+ Sales
2013
3,083
$949,000
41
392
2014
2,904
$1,020,000
47
434
2015
3,104
$1,090,000
47
491
2016
3,104
$1,160,000
47
523
2017
3,088
$1,225,000
30
605
2018
2,814
$1,325,000
23
617
2019
2,838
$1,327,250
26
645
2020
3,027
$1,472,500
19
828

The 2020 numbers are year-to-date.

Based on last December’s count, we should be around 3,180 sales by the end of the year!  It will be the highest number of annual sales ever!

P.S. We did have the identical number of sales in 2015 and 2016.

Encinitas One-Story

This home looks great on paper. It’s a single-level 3,057sf home on an 0.39-acre lot in a secluded part of Encinitas, listed for $1,600,000.  It drew a crowd too – the agent had appointments to show on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday and was fully booked for three days (I got the last appointment on Sunday afternoon, and there were still a few parties milling around then).

By the time we got there, she already had multiple offers.

But it closed under list price at $1,595,500.

Do some forensic viewing and see if you can tell why it didn’t sell for more:


https://www.compass.com/listing/2222-silver-peak-place-encinitas-ca-92024/635047271721032977/
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Lilian J. Rice

Great to hear that Lilian Rice is getting a statue – and a remodel! Meet the participants at bottom:

This month, a life-size statue of the late Lilian J. Rice will arrive at the Rancho Santa Fe Historical Society in preparation for its ultimate destination at the town’s civic center envisioned by the architect back in the 1920s. It will officially be unveiled in May with much-deserved fanfare.

Meanwhile, down the street, an altogether different tribute is underway at a single-level Spanish Revival 3,900-square-foot residence built by Rice for a California-dreaming New Jersey family in 1926.

Come spring, it will get its own place in the sun thanks to a duo of San Diego design powerhouses. Del Mar interior designer Michelle Salz-Smith and Lisa Kriedeman, principal of Island Architects, are seizing a rare opportunity to expand and modernize the organic style pioneered by Rice nearly a century ago.

Read Full Article Here

Michelle Salz-Smith creates her own form of minimal eclecticism, where raw materials, hand-forged objects, and distinctive shapes create one-of-a-kind homes in which people commune, contemplate, and connect: https://www.studio-surface.com/home

Tony Crisafi and Lisa Kriedeman are the highly accomplished principal architects creating residences of quiet luxury throughout Southern California, nationally and internationally for more than two decades. https://www.islandarch.com/

John Kingsmill Fine Plaster: kingsmillfineplasters.com

Pat’s 1502 Glassworks: 1502glassworks.com

Plain English: plainenglishdesign.co.uk

Tiles: tabarkastudio.com

Blackman Cruz: blackmancruz.com

Roman and Williams Guild: rwguild.com

Rose Uniacke: roseuniacke.com

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Home Trends for 2021

From Zillow:

We’ve all been there this year — toddlers interrupting Zoom meetings, daydreaming for more space, and shamelessly feeding sourdough starter kits. 2020 has changed the way we live in and outside our homes.

As people rethink their homes’ functionality after spending more time in them, features we never knew we needed — such as a home gym or no-touch appliances — are more important than ever. While public health precautions continue to keep us at home, these features will only become more popular to create spaces that keep our families safe, all while providing an oasis of comfort.

Driven by this new COVID era, Zillow shares top 10 home trends for 2021 that will not only add comfort, but might even add extra value to your home.

‘Zoom Rooms’

Zillow survey found a desire for a home with a dedicated office tops the list of reasons why Americans working from home say they would consider a move, if they were to continue working remotely at least occasionally. In 2021, people will receive more clarity from their employers about the ability to telecommute moving forward, which could trigger a move to a home with more space.  And, as people tire of working from a kitchen table, they will be wanting a more permanent — and quiet — solution for their at-home desk.

As of November, the number of listings mentioned “home office” or “Zoom room” increased by 48.5% compared to the same time last year. Pennsylvania home builder Berks Homes also says requests for an at-home study in lieu of existing living space more than doubled this year.

‘Homecation’ Amenities

With lots of time and nowhere to go, homeowners are coming up with creative solutions to create vacation-vibes right at home. “Pool” was the top Zillow keyword search term in 2020. “Waterfront” and “dock” also landed in the top ten. Additionally, homeowners may be looking for big and small ways to create a luxury experience at home, from upgrading to a spa-like bathtub or relaxing rain shower. Zillow research shows home buyers paid more for amenities that make their home feel like a retreat. Listings that mentioned a free-standing tub typically sold for 5.5% more than expected, while the listing keyword “spa-inspired” contributed to a 1.8% price premium.

The rise of remote work will allow more homeowners to turn their favorite vacation destination into their hometown. Page views of for-sale listings in areas typically considered vacation destinations – such as Key West, the Jersey Shore and Cape Cod — are up nearly 50% compared to last year.

Intergenerational Living

Intergenerational living will rise in popularity as young adults and grandparents alike find themselves moving in with family for financial and health reasons. According to Generations United, about one in six Americans currently live in multigenerational households, and this year, the share of young people moving back home reached all-time highs as more Millennials and Gen Z’ers than ever – particularly renters – found themselves packing their bags and moving back in with their parents.

Katie Detwiler, Chief Experience Officer at Berks Homes says this trend is manifesting in how people are designing new construction homes, with more requests than ever before for a finished basement with a full bathroom, and bedroom additions.

Gourmet Kitchens

This year inspired people to break out of their old baking habits and start new hobbies in the kitchen, and in 2021 homeowners will want to level-up from their sourdough obsession to create other culinary masterpieces. A previous Zillow survey finds 41% of people value a well-equipped kitchen more than before as a result of social distancing recommendations — and more people will want the space to show off their new culinary skills in the next year.

“We’ve seen an increase in requests for gourmet kitchens,” says Katie Detwiler, Berks Homes’ Chief Experience Officer. “This includes bigger cabinets and island additions so homeowners have the space they need to cook their gourmet meals.” Berks Homes has seen more than 100 more requests for alternate kitchens and island additions this year compared to last.

Backyard Oasis

A yard that is safe and functional has taken on renewed importance — a Zillow survey from the Harris Poll found that 41% of people say they value a large outdoor space more as a result of social distancing recommendations.

There are many easy upgrades to make a backyard a relaxing oasis the whole family can enjoy, and in tandem, increase the resale value of your home. Zillow research finds homes mentioning “firepit” in the listing sold for 2.8% more than similar homes, and “outdoor kitchen” sold for 4.5% more. Smart sprinkler systems and outdoor lighting are other features that add a contemporary flare to a backyard that also help your home sell up to 15 days faster than expected.

Full article here:

http://zillow.mediaroom.com/2020-12-10-From-Zoom-Rooms-to-Chef-Kitchens-Zillows-Top-10-Home-Trends-for-2021

‘Iconic’

Barron Hilton’s $75 MILLION Historic Bel-Air Estate Listed by Rick and Barron Hilton

After nearly 60 years, the family is parting with the historic Los Angeles property, which has only had two owners—the other was a cofounder of CBS. The Beverly Hills developer and cofounder at Hilton & Hyland is putting the primary residence of his late father, W. Barron Hilton, on the market for $75 million.

Inside, the 12-bedroom, 11-bathroom house features several grand entertaining rooms, including a step-down living room and formal dining room. But one of the smallest rooms on-site may pack the most prestige for a future buyer: the executive office. With built-in hardwood and pine library shelving, the 200-square-foot room once served as the study of not just one, but two legendary business magnates.

The 15,000-square-foot estate was designed by Paul R. Williams, a pioneering Black architect, who also built homes for Frank Sinatra, Lucille Ball and Bill “Bojangles” Robinson.

Nestled in the heart of tony Holmby Hills, the exterior marries classic Bel-Air style with traditional English Georgian architecture. Past the wrought-iron gates, two circular driveway paths lead to a grand motor court, bringing you face-to-face with the Hiltons’ Brooklawn Estate and its white brick façade. The double doors open to a modernist interior. Your eyes are instantly drawn to a framed picture window that offers a view of the expansive great lawn, as well as the pool house, which appeared on the cover of Architectural Digest in 1933, in the distance.

Jay Paley, whose family founded the Congress Cigar Company and the Columbia Broadcasting System (CBS), commissioned Williams in 1935. The cost to build the house was estimated at $100,000 (or about $1.8 million today.) Upon Paley’s death in 1961, the estate was subdivided but the house and bulk of the land was sold to Barron Hilton. The hotel magnate, who raised his family and lived there until his death last year at the age of 91, began his hotelier career as an elevator operator at father Conrad Hilton’s (d. 1972) El Paso Hilton. Initially resisting following in his dad’s footsteps, he founded Carte Blanche Credit Card, Air Finance Corporation and AFL’s Los Angeles Chargers, and helped negotiate the merger with NFL to create the Super Bowl. He returned to Hilton Hotels, and was named president and CEO in 1966.

Williams was the mastermind behind the Zodiac Pool; its ornate flooring consists of thousands of hand-painted, multi-colored tiles. The mosaic details all 12 astrological signs with a Grecian palette of turquoise, sky and platinum blues. A cameo of rich yellow fills in the sun, the focal point of the masterpiece, as well as its rays that extend across the pool’s nearly Olympic length.
-Forbes

Low Inventory, Defined

We’ve heard for years now that the inventory is low.  For the casual observers, it’s a discouraging thought – but it’s not as bad as it sounds. There have been plenty of homes for sale this year, and in 2020 we could post the highest number of NSDCC sales in history…..during a pandemic!

For everyone’s sake, we should be more clear. There have been plenty of homes for sale – they just sell fast, giving the appearance that there isn’t much for sale.

The inventory of ACTIVE listings is low, especially in the more-affordable price ranges.

Look at the median days-on-market of NSDCC homes sold this year:

Price Range
Listings Since 1/1/20
Actives
Pendings
Solds in 2020
Median DOM
Under $1M
597
11
52
529
9
$1M – $1.5M
1,305
30
97
1,044
13
$1.5M – $2.0M
939
63
91
648
23
Over $2M
1,633
352
126
816
38

If you want to buy a NSDCC home for less than $2,000,000 today, you have 104 choices. In an area of 300,000 people!

But don’t despair – we have sold 2,220 homes sold for less than $2,000,000 this year, mostly to buyers who had a strategy of jumping on the new listings quickly.

What can buyers do?

  • Work with an agent who has a great reputation in the community.
  • Work with an agent who has bidding-war strategies and works in the off-market space.
  • Work with an agent who can present a compelling case on why sellers should accept your offer.
  • Make a cash offer.
  • Get pre-approved with an impressive and well-known lender.
  • Consider removing contingencies upfront (be careful).
  • Include an intro love letter that’s neutral/generic so sellers can’t discriminate.
  • Make a big deposit – and maybe non-refundable if you know you are going to buy the house.
  • Let sellers occupy for free after closing.
  • Find a way to make an offer that’s not contingent upon selling another property.

Get Good Help!

Laguna Row

Brett Farrow is a local architect, builder, and developer – and has been a long-time reader of the blog (you’ve seen him comment here as ‘Mozart’). Yesterday, we got together at his latest project, Laguna Row, and talked about his experiences in the village of Carlsbad:

I also did another tour around the village for an update on the booming redevelopment:

Here is Brett’s website:

https://www.lagunarow.com/

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