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Thanksgiving Meals

Thanksgiving will be looking different this year but rest assured, restaurants are still gearing up to make turkey day a delicious holiday. Choices include take-away meals, including one with a special chef collaboration, or options for dining on the premises with additional safety precautions. Advance reservations are required regardless of whether you’ll be ordering to eat at home or eating out so plan accordingly.

Here are options up and down the coast:

https://sandiego.eater.com/maps/thanksgiving-restaurant-options-for-dine-in-or-takeout-in-san-diego

Vaccine to Supercharge 2021 Market

Did you hear Dr. Fauci last night?

It’s likely US health officials will know whether a Covid-19 vaccine is safe and effective as early as next month, Fauci said Monday. “I think comfortably around November or December, we’ll know whether or not the vaccine is safe and effective,” he said.

There are currently 10 Covid-19 vaccine candidates in late-stage, large clinical trials around the world, according to the World Health Organization. Several of those are in the US and at least two have been in Phase 3 trials since late July.

Once a vaccine is deemed safe and effective, it’s likely companies will already have doses to begin distributing, Fauci said.

“There will be vaccines available, likely, for some people, limited amount, by the end of this calendar year, the beginning of 2021,” Fauci predicted.  Experts including Fauci say health care workers and people with underlying health conditions will likely take priority for vaccinations.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/06/health/us-coronavirus-tuesday/index.html

It didn’t make this article, but he also said that vaccines are already being manufactured, and they should be available for the masses by the middle of next year.

Just the thought of the pandemic coming to an end should be enough to goose the Spring Selling Season!

Showings Are Still Elevated

Click to enlarge

Not only does the current level of showings make up for the dip we had at the beginning of the Covid-19 market, but the 7-day moving average was higher on Saturday than all but two days this year (now 225% higher than it was during the first week of 2020).

As long as mortgage rates are under 3%, people will be looking!

https://www.showingtime.com/impact-of-coronavirus/

The October Surprise

Today’s coronavirus news adds a new dimension to our real estate market, doesn’t it?

Or does it?

We can probably count on one thing to happen.

This will be the last straw for those home sellers who have been languishing on the open market for more than 30 days. They have heard how hot the market has been for others, but based on their overly-optimistic list price, their motivation wasn’t that great to begin with – and they are tired of the inconvenience that comes with not selling.

Those would-be sellers will be de-listing their homes, and waiting until next year.

Should buyers pack it in and wait until next year too?  Not really – you’re still looking for the right house, at the right price, and it could happen at any time. Plus, if you were ever going to get a decent price on a home in this era, it would be in the next month or two when the competition should be dwindling.  There will be more buyers in spring – it’s just a matter of whether sellers will come out in droves or not.

But consider this:

Any sellers who are still for sale on October – especially those who go on the open market after today – should be highly motivated to sell.  Nobody is going to casually throw their home on the market just days before the biggest election in history with the incumbent fighting a potentially life-threating virus.

Get Good Help!

Who Is Selling?

Who is selling? The chart below tracks when the home was purchased by the sellers. Today’s numbers are from those sales closed between Aug 21-31 of this year:

Year Purchased
12/13/16
4/3/17
6/30/17
12/4/17
2/16/20
9/28/20
0 – 2003
57%
48%
32%
47%
34%
29%
2004 – 2008
19%
15%
12%
15%
18%
15%
2009 – 2011
6%
7%
14%
10%
4%
9%
2012 – 2020
13%
25%
34%
24%
35%
44%
New Home
4%
4%
7%
4%
9%
3%

So much for my theory about boomers leaving town! Today’s percentage of long-time owners sellers was the lowest yet…..but we know that over 50% of boomers delayed selling their home due to covid.

The chart at the top (click to enlarge) shows the California migration, and it’s a money thing.

People who leave the state find it too expensive here, and can do better elsewhere – and are willing to go for it! Younger people are probably more inclined to leave, at least at first. Grandparents to follow!

Of course, even the recent purchasers have no problem selling for a decent-to-huge gain, and more of them have been taking their profits – and hopefully buying another home, either here or elsewhere. Though the 2012-2020 group is the only one that grows just because we’re adding years over time.

More stats:

Other
12/13/16
4/3/17
6/30/17
12/4/17
2/16/20
9/28/20
# of Sales
144
112
99
99
116
130
Avg. $$/sf
$550/sf
$529/sf
$481/sf
$532/sf
$523/sf
$612/sf
Median SP
$1.291M
$1.274M
$1.11M
$1.25M
$1.18M
$1.46M
Avg DOM
42
54
43
52
47
39
0-10 DOM
35%
28%
45%
42%
28%
45%
Lost $$
7
7
0
1
2
0
DOM = 0
7
2
4
3
4
2

There were four flippers in today’s group, same as last time.

Who’s Fleeing?

The pandemic is being blamed for people leaving town.

I think it’s more that Covid-19 is the last straw that is causing people to take the action they would have taken at some point anyway.  The ‘rona will be gone in 1-18 months – moving is a major life-changing event.

But these two conflicting articles probably demonstrate who is being impacted.

On one hand, we have people – probably those who want/need to be economical – who are moving themselves and are being ripped off by the rental-truck agencies (hat tip SM):

https://jalopnik.com/moving-truck-prices-in-la-and-san-francisco-are-skyrock-1845068350

But a survey of full-service moving companies describe a different scenario:

Are people in the U.S. migrating during the coronavirus crisis in different ways than pre-pandemic? Are they leaving cities? Moving to the suburbs? These are popular questions without definitive answers — yet. But there is some data emerging that can paint a better picture of Americans’ geographic response to the pandemic.

One thing’s for certain: So far, there is little support for the dramatic claims that people are fleeing cities writ large. In fact, available data indicates that overall, fewer people moved at all since the beginning of stay-at-home orders and through June — even with interest in moving on the rise again.

Among those who have moved, it’s unclear how many of those moves will be only temporary. But that doesn’t mean there aren’t interesting migration takeaways worth following. A select few cities including New York City and San Francisco do seem to be seeing more out-migration than most. But guess where many of those people are going? Other very large metropolitan areas, like Seattle and Los Angeles.

If there is a perception that the pandemic has ushered in a mass migration, it is not supported by the data. According to figures from two national moving companies, Americans moved less during the pandemic than they normally would have, not more. 

Several surveys have found that the great majority of people who did move during the first months of the pandemic did so for reasons unrelated to the coronavirus. In one such survey of 1,300 individuals conducted by Hire A Helper, just 15% said they had relocated because of Covid-19. Out of these pandemic-induced migrations, 37% of respondents said they moved because they could not afford current housing due to a Covid-related income loss. Thirty-three percent of the respondents said that they moved to shelter in place with friends or family, and 24% that they didn’t feel safe where they were.

Pew Research Center survey in June looked more closely at Americans who said they did make pandemic-induced moves. It found that overall, young people between the ages of 18 and 29 were moving because of Covid-19 in higher numbers, whether permanently or temporarily (college closing for in-person education might be to blame, at least partially.) Only 3% of the respondents said they had moved because of Covid-19, and 6% said someone else had moved in with them because of it.

Link to Article

What the pandemic is exposing is the gap between the haves and have-nots.

Those who are moving are seeking financial relief – either homeowners cashing in their home-equity lottery ticket and moving down, or those who flee so they can afford to start their American dream in a cheaper area.

The affluent don’t have to worry about that stuff. But they’ll move closer to the grandkids!

Fleeing to The Suburbs?

The chart above shows the June page views, which was probably the peak hysteria for those who were considering a drastic change.  I think the heightened activity and sales could have just been from all the people who had been thinking about a move over the last 2-3 years, and they finally got on their horse.  If we end up with about the same number of sales as last year, which looks probable, then sales were merely redistributed from April/May to late summer.  Maybe a few more people left for the suburbs, but this report makes it look like it’s not a mass exodus.

From Zillow:

Are people fleeing the cities for greener suburban pastures?

Some faint signals may have emerged in certain places, but by and large, the data show that suburban housing markets have not strengthened at a disproportionately rapid pace compared to urban markets. Both region types appear to be hot sellers’ markets right now – while many suburban areas have seen strong improvement in housing activity in recent months, so, too, have many urban areas.

Zillow’s Economic Research team analyzed a variety of Zillow data points in order to illustrate this trend. Data related to for-sale listings are generally the best indicator of real-time housing market activity, and in all but a few cases, suburban markets and urban markets have seen similar changes in activity in recent months: about the same share of homes selling above their list price, similar  changes in the typical time homes spend on the market before an offer is accepted, and recent improvements in newly pending sales have been about the same across each region type.

Other indicators also help drive home this conclusion. Changes in annual home value growth rates from just before the pandemic to now have been about the same for urban and suburban markets. In some regions where there is a divergence, the discrepancy can be explained by trends that were unfolding before the pandemic. Page view data also show that suburban home listings have not grown in relative popularity in the past few months. For-sale suburban homes attract more than three times as much of Zillow’s traffic as urban listings do, but that was the case last year as well. Interest in detached single-family homes (or similar) has not seen a marked increase in the past year, either.

Link to Zillow’s Full Report

NSDCC Sales, Jan-Aug

Sales has been robust over the last couple of months, and the national pending-home-sales index above shows how we’re just making up for lost time. We don’t have a local PHSI, so let’s look at how the NSDCC closed sales for 2020 have compared to last couple of years:

NSDCC Detached-Home Sales, Jan-Aug:

2018: 1,969

2019: 1,928

2020: 1,841

After six months of Covid-19, we’re only 87 sales behind last year!

I bring it up because the doomer-of-the-century chimed in, and I just wanted to present more-current evidence before reading his take on the 2020 market:

https://www.mhanson.com/9-3-housing-rebounds-recoveries-are-two-very-different-things/

He did mention that we got off to a hot start this year, and it can be attributed to the lower mortgage rates. With the Fed saying they are going to ignore inflation, let’s include ultra-low mortgage rates high on our list of why the 2021 Spring Selling Season will likely be craziest market of all-time!

 

What’s Hot!

We know that covid, and it’s impact on schooling in particular, is causing some people to want more space around them.  Bigger houses, with bigger yards, are becoming more desirable…..and buyers are scrambling to get situated and comfortable before school starts – or at least not get too far into the school year.

The Poway area offers such relief at a fairly affordable price.

My buyers and I finalized this list of homes on Monday, and picked yesterday as our tour date. By Wednesday night, this is how the list looked:

17307 St Andrews Dr., Poway.  $1,399,000  Active listing

14260 Hacienda Ln., Poway.   $1,150,000  Active listing

16105 Lakeview Rd. Poway.  $1,350,000  Active listing

12612 Stoutwood St., Poway.  $1,070,000  Pending

13615 Sunset View Rd., Poway.  $1,100,000  Pending

11828 Clearwood Ct., San Diego.  $1,290,000  Pending

12429 Damasco St., San Diego.  $920,000  Pending

14473 Trailwind, Poway $1,465,000 Pending

14220 Primrose Ct., Poway $1,249,000  Pending

3428 Tony Dr., San Diego $1,329,000 Pending

12020 Blue Diamond Ct., San Diego $1,300,000 Pending

9972 Falcon Bluff, San Diego $1,389,000  Pending

14048 Old Station, Poway $999,000 Pending

12488 Caleta Way, San Diego $1,098,000 Pending

13427 Calle Colina, Poway $1,250,000 Active listing

Out of the 15 listings, eleven of them already went pending this week!

The agent sent this message on his Blue Diamond listing, priced at $1,300,000:

The sellers don’t want any more showings, they have 10 offers and half of them are over $1,400,000.

Yowsa! Get Good Help!

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