Neighbors of the late San Diego Padres great Tony Gwynn noticed something strange happening in their upscale Poway neighborhood about two weeks ago.
Last summer, the Gwynn family lost their home to foreclosure and it’s been vacant ever since. But suddenly in late December, neighbors told the Sheriff’s Department that they had noticed people coming and going frequently from the fenced-off multimillion-dollar residence. One neighbor spotted barrels being loaded into the garage, leading to speculation that a methamphetamine lab might be setting up.
Now, officials with the property management firm responsible for the bank-owned property have confirmed that the man living on the property was squatting illegally in the residence and have begun civil eviction proceedings against him.
Valued at about $2.3 million, the house went into foreclosure in June and is now owned by a New York bank and managed by Ocwen Financial Corp. in Florida. Ocwen spokesman John Lovallo confirmed that it has taken action to evict the man.
Yesterday we heard from Gov Hutchinson, the assistant general counsel for the California Association of Realtors. He travels around the state to inform realtors of the basic changes to forms, and helps define other aspects of the business – here’s a summary of what we heard:
Transfer Disclosure Statement – The buyer has a five-day rescission period after receiving the completed TDS from the seller (the form where the sellers disclose pertinent facts about the property). If the form is delivered to the buyer’s agent late, incomplete, or unsigned, the buyer can still cancel the transaction even if they have already released their other contingencies.
The CA Department of Real Estate is unhappy with compliance to the rule that realtors need to have their license number on every flyer, business card, sign, social-media account, etc. They have hired additional personnel to chase us around.
It’s acceptable for landlords to say ‘no pets’, but they must accept tenants with service animal (seeing-eye dog) or emotional-support animal with a note from a licensed caregiver – as long as it is reasonable. If the animal affects the landlord’s insurance, or is a threat, the landlord can say no. The law supersedes HOA, C,C,&Rs, and city codes, and the landlord cannot require a pet deposit or higher rent for these animals.
A landlord cannot require tenant insurance.
A landlord cannot be compelled to take a Section 8 tenant.
Low-flow plumbing is required in all homes throughout the state. Sellers don’t have to fix/update if the buyers will accept as-is.
If a house for sale has hidden cameras, there should be a sign near the front door to alert buyers and agents who are showing the property that the house is under surveillance.
No laws, rules, or guidance on Coming Soons – it is a local MLS issue.
I think we can say that the Coming Soon dilemma has been decided – nobody wants to address it globally, so it will be left up to the agents.
Realtors love the Coming Soons, and are now pitching them as a vital part of the marketing program. But with no rules or guidelines, what happens when a buyer wants to see the home? Do you show it during the Coming Soon period? Do you field offers? If you do get an offer, do you throw the listing on the MLS to give everyone a chance too? Or do you just make the deal and hurry off to the next one? How do you know if you got full value? (you don’t know)
Virtually every listing will go this route in 2019, and then most will be uploaded to the MLS with diminished urgency because the motivated buyers already saw the sign two weeks ago, and forgot about it.
Instead of relying on instant market data from the internet, we’ll need drivers to patrol for new Coming-Soon signs, and rely on word-of-mouth between agents to make these off-market deals we now crave for some reason.
It was suggested that we change the price categories again, and the start of the new year would be a good time to do it.
But I’m going to leave them be, for two reasons: A) Pricing, and the market in general, has stalled – literally we have twice as many NSDCC active listings priced under $1M today as we did a year ago (72 vs. 36), and B) I want to compare apples and apples to 2018 throughout the year.
If you took an extended vacation and are just getting back in the swing, scroll back a few posts (or click here) to register your guess of how many total listings we will have between Jan 1 and Feb 28 – the closest will receive four tickets to a Padres game!
A summary of the 2019 forecasts – they say mortgage rates will be above 5% this year, and that pricing will continue to go up too. Something needs to give, and the only thing left is the number of sales:
So far, the limitations on mortgage-interest and property-tax deductions haven’t had a negative impact. Instead, rising mortgage rates and home prices are doing more to put a damper on the market.
Economic uncertainty brought on by global trade tensions, stock market volatility and the government shutdown also isn’t helping. In this environment, potential home buyers can be reluctant to make a large purchase such as a house. The last sustained government shutdown in 2013 saw a slump in home sales.
It is too soon to tell whether the recent decline is a temporary lull or a major pullback.
In their forecasts for 2019, real estate experts anticipate the housing market slowing down, but not stalling, with prices and mortgage rates moderating.
“If mortgage rates trend sideways next year, as we anticipate, and home price appreciation continues to moderate, improving affordability should breathe some life into the housing market,” said Doug G. Duncan, chief economist at Fannie Mae.
Below is a snapshot of what housing experts are forecasting for 2019.
What’s it going to take to get the real estate market going?
You could say that sales and pricing were at full speed between 2013 and 2017. What’s the common denominator? Low mortgage rates.
In the graph above, it’s apparent there’s been rate-tolerance up to the 4.2% range over the last few years – which had to fuel home sales.
In the Frenzy of 2013, rates didn’t matter much, but by 2014 you can see it took some incentive to keep the party going. National home sales:
The times when rates have risen over 4.2%, they retreated quickly – except in early 2018. Once we got into the second half of last year and rates had risen into the high-4s, the housing market stalled out.
A jittery stock market could help housing if people take money off the table, and diversify (which is code for Help the Kids With Their Down Payment).
Are mortgage rates going to go down further?
We dodged a bullet on Friday when the monster job report was released – there was enough concern about the negative variables that rates didn’t jump much:
We can’t count on any help coming from the Fed, the stock market, Trump, Congress, AOC, etc. – we’re going to have to handle it ourselves.
Whoever can solve the mortgage-rate riddle, and get them under 4.2% – or because of the other turbulence, under 4.0%, should win the game.
1. ‘How do you keep alligators from coming up into the toilet?’
Michael Lyons, a real estate broker with Lyons Realty Group in Hollywood, FL, has certainly heard his share of concerns about alligators lurking in yards, ponds, and swimming pools. But sneaking into the house? Through a toilet? That left him stumped.
2. ‘Do any swingers live in the neighborhood?’
While home buyers often have questions about the neighbors, this one was a first for Kate Julian, a real estate agent with City Chic Real Estate, in Washington, DC.
“They said they were swingers and that’s something they were looking for,” she said. Unsure what to say, she countered with, “drive around the neighborhood and see.” After all, aren’t swingers very friendly?
