Pearl Harbor

arizona

I heard of a 16-year old today who didn’t know about Pearl Harbor!

The Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor 75 years ago was one of the most significant events in world history – it brought America into World War II. There were 2,403 American lives that were lost, and another 1,178 who were injured in the surprise air attack.

Here is a fantastic photo gallery:

http://www.theatlantic.com/photo/2011/07/world-war-ii-pearl-harbor/100117/

My high school is in the parade tonight, #18 on the list below:

http://www.pearlharborparade.org/the-parade

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Trump Tower and Realtors

douglassellman_629.jpg

Hat tip to MM!

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/12/trump-tower-secret-service-amenities-232216

The U.S. Secret Service is the hot, new “amenity” at Trump Tower, where desperate brokers are trying to lure well-heeled clients into the building on Fifth Avenue that has served as President-elect Donald Trump’s home as well as his campaign and transition headquarters.

Less than a week after Trump was elected, prominent New York real estate agency Douglas Elliman blasted out an email with the subject: “Fifth Avenue Buyers Interested in Secret Service Protection?” to advertise a $2.1 million, 1,052-square-foot condo in the tower on 721 Fifth Avenue.

“The New Aminity [sic] – The United States Secret Service,” screamed the flier sent in an email on Nov. 13 for a one-bedroom apartment on the 31st floor, represented by brokers Ariel Sassoon and Devin Leahy.

“The Best Value in the Most Secure Building in Manhattan,” it stated.

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Climate Change and Real Estate

swamped

This comes from the nytimes.com, not me:

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/24/science/global-warming-coastal-real-estate.html

MIAMI — Real estate agents looking to sell coastal properties usually focus on one thing: how close the home is to the water’s edge. But buyers are increasingly asking instead how far back it is from the waterline. How many feet above sea level? Is it fortified against storm surges? Does it have emergency power and sump pumps?

Rising sea levels are changing the way people think about waterfront real estate. Though demand remains strong and developers continue to build near the water in many coastal cities, homeowners across the nation are slowly growing wary of buying property in areas most vulnerable to the effects of climate change.

A warming planet has already forced a number of industries — coal, oil, agriculture and utilities among them — to account for potential future costs of a changed climate. The real estate industry, particularly along the vulnerable coastlines, is slowly awakening to the need to factor in the risks of catastrophic damage from climate change, including that wrought by rising seas and storm-driven flooding.

But many economists say that this reckoning needs to happen much faster and that home buyers urgently need to be better informed. Some analysts say the economic impact of a collapse in the waterfront property market could surpass that of the bursting dot-com and real estate bubbles of 2000 and 2008.

The fallout would be felt by property owners, developers, real estate lenders and the financial institutions that bundle and resell mortgages.

Read full article here:

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/24/science/global-warming-coastal-real-estate.html

waterfront

NSDCC November Sales

2016-12-04-13-59-06-2

Here’s the update on last month.  There were two fewer business days in 2014, and one less business day in 2013 and 2015 (same # in 2012).

With both sales AND pricing being this strong, the momentum should carry over to 2017…..and I think we’ll get off to a fast start too.  There has to be some motivated sellers scooting closer to the exits, and buyers who are anxious to lock in a rate and price before they get any worse.

We should be at full speed by March!

NSDCC November Sales

Year
# of Sales
Sales Per B-Day
Median SP
Average $/sf
2012
241
12.68
$885,000
$415/sf
2013
187
10.39
$1,030,000
$474/sf
2014
172
10.12
$1,007,450
$491/sf
2015
193
10.72
$1,187,500
$520/sf
2016
227
11.95
$1,265,000
$544/sf

Retire At Sea

cruise

Maybe you don’t have to worry about where to move – just float around!

H/T Daytrip!

Retirement has often been synonymous with quietly living out your golden years in a sunny climate. But for a more adventurous breed of retirees, the end of work life opens a door to a more extreme type of sea change.

The siren’s call of cabin life is beckoning increasing numbers to traverse the globe via the ocean. And, it’s a surprisingly more attractive – and affordable – option than assisted living for some retirees.

The number of people who take cruises is at an all-time high, with 24 million passengers expected to set sail this year worldwide versus 15 million a decade ago, according to the Washington, DC-based Cruise Lines International Association. Half of these cruisers are 50 or older, and, of those, a small number are making the ocean a second home or even their permanent home.

Cruise ships might be an ideal retirement destination, although some things such as healthcare can be tricky. They offer, well, everything. From nightly entertainment to exercise equipment to Internet, most ships are equipped with anything you need to make a place home — including the travel, often a big priority for younger retirees. While no group tracks the number of people choosing this new form of retirement, a handful of cruise lines confirmed that they are seeing more near-year-round cruisers with some frequency.

For some, retirement at sea involves taking over a small stateroom on a standard cruise ship with repeated sailings and itineraries. For others, it means purchasing a “residence” (a high-end apartment at sea) on a luxury ship like The World, which is managed by Florida-based ROW Management Limited, or the yet-to-launch Southern California-based Utopia, both offering exotic destinations and expeditions.

“[These are] people who love to travel, don’t want to be responsible for any type of home maintenance, want to ditch the car, are healthy, and are comfortable living with an ever-changing ‘neighbourhood’,” says Jan Cullinane, Florida-based author of The New Retirement: The Ultimate Guide to the Rest of Your Life.

Read full article here:

http://www.bbc.com/capital/story/20161201-meet-the-people-whove-retired-at-sea

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Inventory Watch

2016-11-23-14-23-48

We had 86 new listings this week, which is close to double the norm for the first week of December.  But there were a bunch of listings that expired – the net gain was only +15 after the 47 new pendings.

There were actually 9% fewer cancelled, expired, and withdrawn listings between Nov. 1st and Dec. 1st this year, compared to 2015.  Hopefully it means more sellers see the benefit of being on the market when there is less competition?

Click on the ‘Read More’ link below for the NSDCC active-inventory data:

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NSDCC Actives/Pendings Ratio

Historically we have considered our market to be relatively ‘healthy’ when the actives-to-pendings ratio is around 2.0.  Here are the latest ratios for the detached-home market from La Jolla to Carlsbad:

Reading Date
Active Listings
Pending Listings
Ratio
Oct 28, 2015
970
358
2.71
Feb 1, 2016
788
254
3.10
Mar 23, 2016
900
399
2.26
June 21, 2016
1,052
428
2.46
Aug 17, 2016
1,060
395
2.68
Dec 4, 2016
886
327
2.71

For those wondering how we will get out of the gate in 2017, consider how fast the market picked up last year – by mid-March, we were already in full-tilt boogie mode, reflected in the lowest ratio of the year!

Here are today’s Actives/Pendings for each area.  Except the ultra-highenders, we’re doing as well, or better, than in summertime!

Area
Zip Code
June Ratio
Aug Ratio
Dec Ratio
Actives/Pendings
Cardiff
92007
2.3
3.5
1.1
9/8
Carlsbad NW
92008
2.0
2.3
1.3
39/31
Carlsbad SE
92009
1.6
2.0
1.9
94/50
Carlsbad NE
92010
0.7
0.9
1.3
20/16
Carlsbad SW
92011
1.6
1.5
1.3
31/24
Del Mar
92014
3.2
2.5
4.9
54/11
Encinitas
92024
1.3
1.8
1.8
95/52
La Jolla
92037
4.8
4.4
4.4
177/40
RSF
92067
8.2
6.3
6.3
214/34
Solana Bch
92075
2.9
3.9
2.7
19/7
Carmel Vly
92130
1.5
1.8
1.8
84/47
All Above
All
2.5
2.7
2.7
886/327

Most Realtors Don’t Sell

failure-rate

There are 80,000 realtors in CRMLS – Art Carter is the CEO. 

Here’s what he had to say about agent productivity:

But many of the MLS’s 14,000 or so member firms have no listings, he added. The vast majority of the firms are one-man offices.

“Typically, only about 48 percent of our members in any four quarters participate on one side of a deal,” Carter said.

“Historically since I’ve been here at CRMLS, that has been about the average.”

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