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Journal

NSDCC January New Listings

2016-01-13 16.36.09

The North San Diego County coastal region is an affluent area – just ask the home sellers, who are added a little extra mustard to their pricing in January:

NSDCC January New Listings

Year
# of New Listings
# Listed Over $1.5 Million
Median List Price
2012
409
110
$975,000
2013
410
147
$1,137,500
2014
413
167
$1,295,000
2015
388
158
$1,347,500
2016
435
220
$1,500,000

Eventually prices will get high enough that more sellers are lured into the marketplace.  Based on the higher count in January, this might be the year!

Today, there are 552 homes listed for sale that are priced over $1,500,000, and we sold an average of 71 per month last year. We have 7.8 months of supply, and we’re just getting started!

Get Good Help!

Posted by on Feb 5, 2016 in North County Coastal | 1 comment

NSDCC January Sales & Pricing

Feb rates
January house sales between La Jolla and Carlsbad look pretty good, given the higher pricing and TRID fumbling.

Our good luck with sales should continue – rates are lower this month, plus February actually has one more business day than January, thanks to leap year!

NSDCC January Sales and Pricing

Year
# of Sales
Avg Cost-per-sf
Median SP
Days on Market
2012
155
$374/sf
$760,000
108
2013
185
$379/sf
$845,000
69
2014
182
$501/sf
$1,072,500
60
2015
165
$507/sf
$1,218,000
73
2016
160
$555/sf
$1,077,500
52

I wouldn’t worry too much about the median sales price being lower, because the monthly comparisons have smaller sample sizes and more easily affected by the different mix of houses. The number of sales will probably catch last year’s count once the late-reporters are done, and the brisk 52 DOM is really cooking, given the higher pricing.

Posted by on Feb 4, 2016 in Jim's Take on the Market, Market Buzz, Market Conditions, North County Coastal | 0 comments

Paul Kantner, RIP

We lost another rock and roll great, Paul Kantner of Jefferson Airplane.  He probably wasn’t as well-known as Glenn Frey, but Paul had a big impact on the music industry:

“In 1967, the greatest rock and roll city in America was San Francisco,” Rolling Stone wunderkind Jann Wenner wrote in 2005. ” And the most exciting and  successful rock and roll band in San Francisco and the country was Jefferson Airplane. … [They] were both architects and messengers of the psychedelic age, a liberation of mind and body that profoundly changed American art, politics and spirituality. It was a renaissance that could only have been born in San Francisco, and the Airplane, more than any other band in town, spread the good news nationwide.”

Now, one of those who spread that good news is gone. Paul Kantner, guitarist for Jefferson Airplane and one of its founding members, is dead at 74. The cause was multiple organ failure and septic shock, as SF Gate reported.

“Paul was the catalyst that brought the whole thing together,” Jorma Kaukonen, Jefferson Airplane’s lead guitarist, told the New York Times. “He had the transcendental vision and he hung onto it like a bulldog. The band would not have been what it was without him.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2016/01/29/paul-kantner-jefferson-airplane-founder-dead-at-74/

Posted by on Feb 3, 2016 in Jim's Take on the Market, Wednesday Rock Blogging | 0 comments

‘Non-Prime’

notprime

The old First-Franklin way of qualifying – and a better gauge of actual income and expenses. From HW:

http://www.housingwire.com/articles/36188-is-subprime-lending-ready-for-a-comeback?

An excerpt:

In fact, CSC does not use the term subprime. According to Will Fisher, SVP of sales and marketing, at CSC “Subprime is offensive.” CSC has coined a more apt descriptive word for of this part of the mortgage world, “non-prime.”

“People have been hesitant to make this kind of loan since 2008 and even wondered how we could even fund them,” said Fisher. “Even now people ask how we are making these loans. The truth is, subprime is not a four-letter word.  And non-prime is an even better description of what is occurring since 2011-12 in this loan type.”

CSC created a loan program four years ago that allows self-employed borrowers to document their income using bank statements instead of tax returns like 1040s or 1099s. The company requires two years of bank statements to validate cash flow and thus extrapolate income. This gives the company critical insight into a borrower’s ability-to-repay (ATR).

“We believe that 24 months of continuous bank statements are a very reliable look into what a person actually lives on per month when compared to tax returns or even a W-2s,” Fisher said. “Because these borrowers are self-employed, they want the benefits that come with the legal ability to write off expenses. That can make the use of tax returns as conventionally underwritten a poor barometer of ability to repay, but we’re able to document income in a different way. And we stay in the spirit of ATR and QM loans by requiring a two-year history.”

CSC offers up to 90% LTV for self-employed borrowers with a 700 credit score and up to 80% LTV for a credit score of 600 or higher (the typical threshold for subprime is 620). This program has huge potential for growth since many of the 14.6 million people who are self-employed may not qualify for a traditional QM loan, even with a high credit score and adequate income.

http://www.housingwire.com/articles/36188-is-subprime-lending-ready-for-a-comeback?

Posted by on Feb 3, 2016 in Jim's Take on the Market, Mortgage News, Mortgage Qualifying | 5 comments

San Diego Undervalued

The crew over at CL came out with their year-end report today, which included their forecast for 2016.  They consider the San Diego-Carlsbad metro area to be undervalued…..just like San Francisco and Boston(?). They also expect that prices in our area will rise 7.8% in 2016, after going up 6.7% last year:

core1

From MND:

http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/02022016_corelogic_hpi.asp

Once again a report on home price changes indicates that appreciation has not yet slowed.  CoreLogic issued a report on its Home Price Index for December of Tuesday which indicates a pick-up in monthly increases.

The index shows prices nationwide, including distressed sales, rose 0.8 percent from November to December compared to a 0.5 percent change from October to November. On an annual basis there was a 6.3 percent gain, the same as the November 2014 to November 2015 pace.

“Nationally, home prices have been rising at a 5 to 6 percent annual rate for more than a year,” said Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist for CoreLogic. “However, local-market growth can vary substantially from that. Some metropolitan areas have had double-digit appreciation, such as Denver and Naples, Florida, while others have had price declines, like New Orleans and Rochester, New York.”

Posted by on Feb 2, 2016 in Forecasts, Jim's Take on the Market, Sales and Price Check | 1 comment

CRMLS and Sandicor Should Merge

crmls

We heard about the GSDAR suing Sandicor and the other two realtor associations, which still seems ridiculous – aren’t us agents all on the same team here?

Oscar left this comment last night:

I was at a meeting of brokers set up by Sandicor at the Sheraton in La Jolla a few weeks ago. A Sandicor Board member was leading a meeting and they had a presentation from CRMLS. CRMLS is interested in merging with Sandicor and all of the Brokers in the room from all of the association’s were very interested in hearing more about what a merge would look like. A broker asked why we weren’t moving this forward faster and the President from SDAR and his attorney stood up and said that SDAR would not support a merge with CRMLS so don’t bother looking into it. The brokers in the room were shocked. They couldn’t give a reason for not exploring the merger. I just want to know why SDAR wouldn’t explore this to see what was available. The leaders from Sandicor and PSAR and NSDCAR seemed open minded and interested in listening to the brokers in the room. A few days later read in Inman about this suit. It makes me wonder. One huge statewide MLS might be big enough to develop better tools.

Sandicor has announced a data share agreement with CRMLS, but it’s not the same as a merger.  In the press release, they say that the data-share agreement “will come as a huge financial relief” and ‘makes perfect sense’ – but it doesn’t allow for agents to input listings in the other MLS, or to have listings on the consumer-facing website.  The agreement allows for searching only – which we can do on Zillow, with better results!

Sandicor and CRMLS should merge – it is what makes the most sense.  CRMLS has the better MLS, and a far-superior consumer website.  Yet it appears that there is somebody at GSDAR getting in the way.

I’m including this info here to help inform agents what is going on behind the scenes.  If you know any more, let us know!

Click here to read the press release:

Read More

Posted by on Feb 2, 2016 in Jim's Take on the Market, The Future | 0 comments