I think the market turned this week. I’m seeing more inventory where I look. I’m seeing more price reductions. I’m seeing houses come on decently priced that aren’t flying off market. I think we will look back in 2 years and see this was the peak month. Downhill from here.
We’re coming off an active spring selling season so far:
NSDCC Detached-Home Sales between March 1 – April 15
# of Sales
We might be seeing the real estate tides going out, and the accurate pricing becoming more obvious, which happens this time of year. The over-priced listings start stacking up once we get this far into the selling season (May starts next Monday!).
We also noted last year that the peak time to sell is right now, and that by May 15th the new pendings start to drift off. Could the selling season be closing out earlier this year?
The rest of the selling season is going to be case-by-case. There is a smaller beach house in Oceanside today listed in the low-$700,000s that has so much action that the bids are pushing towards $800,000!
What can sellers do?
Don’t use Active Listings as Comps – All the active listings tell you are the list prices that aren’t working.
Don’t Rely on Sold Comps as Absolute Proof of your Home’s Value – They are likely indicators, but those buyers might have been crazy, or got suckered into a hot bidding war. Question the cash sales too; buyers are throwing around money like water.
Don’t Use Range Pricing – Give buyers a clear number to shoot at. My listing in NE Carlsbad suffered an unfortunate occurrence when the house across the street listed on a too-large range of $725,000 – $800,000. The owner/agent got four offers over the first weekend, which did the same thing it does to all sellers – it makes them want the top of the range. I told her she should ditch the low end, and just go with the $800,000. She didn’t, and instead cancelled the listing three weeks later. In the meantime, I’m trying to sell the same model with view for $849,000, which would have looked reasonable if hers was $800,000 with slope instead of view – we both could have sold!
Lower Your Price – If you’ve been on the market for weeks, buyers think something is wrong with your price. Buyers are on to it – ‘how long have you been on the market’ is the most heard question at open houses.
Keep Improving Your Home – If you don’t want to lower the price, you can keep improving your home along the way to justify the price.
Daytrip left this comment:
I think price peaks and drops will be like playing whack-a-mole this season. Take out the noise, and it’ll still be heading up. Quality properties will get good prices.
I agree, but once a house is for sale, it is subject to market forces. Sometimes you just hit a dry spot, and adjusting is more effective than waiting!
Did you file an extension for your 2016 tax returns, and are trying to buy a house? Have you released your financing contingency yet?
Here’s what you have to do to qualify for a mortgage:
Yes, “Tax Day” has passed, and lenders and investors must consider filed taxes in their underwriting decision. For example, LHFS issued a reminder regarding 4506 transcripts. Loans dispersed on or after April 18th will require the 2015 and 2016 returns or all the following:
Evidence of filing a Tax Extension (IRS Form 4868-Application for Automatic Extension of Time to File U.S. Individual Income Tax Return) filed with the IRS; Tax liability reported must be compared to the borrower’s tax liability for the previous 2 years as a measure of income source stability & continuance. An estimated tax liability that is inconsistent with previous years may make it necessary to require the current years return to proceed. IRS Form 4506-T Transcripts confirming “No transcript available” for the applicable tax year; and Returns for the prior two years.
If you owe additional taxes and sent in an amount with your extension, don’t be surprised if your lender will want to see evidence of that too. Also note:
If you are sending in $100 million or more in taxes, I’ll be happy to drive your money to the post office!
The inventory is a deserted island. Houses in SW Carlsbad that we thought were $1,000,000 just 6-9 months ago are now listed for $1,200,000-ish. What’s worse for buyers is that there is no hope it will change, and now this:
Here are the basics of the home decor that is hot today. They call it transitional style because it balances multiple styles, but it’s also the look for those who are in transition – it’s the staging look that buyers see everywhere!
With so many decor styles out there, it can be hard to stick with just one. Modern, rustic, shabby chic, traditional—deciding on the vibe you want for your home can be downright confusing. But here’s the great thing about interior design: Many of these styles overlap, and can actually work really well together. The design world uses the term “transitional style” to describe the type of design that melds two different aesthetics—modern and traditional—into the same room. So how can you bring transitional style into your home? Our experts break it down for you.
Historically, we have considered our market to be relatively ‘healthy’ when the actives-to-pendings ratio is around 2.0 – but that thought originated when prices were about half of what they are today!
Here are the stats for the NSDCC detached-home market (La Jolla to Carlsbad):
Oct 28, 2015
Feb 1, 2016
Mar 23, 2016
June 21, 2016
Aug 17, 2016
Dec 4, 2016
Apr 21, 2017
Considering that we have record-high pricing in most areas, it is phenomenal to see so many pendings – and so few actives!
Actives Median Price = $2,350,000
Pendings Median Price = $1,299,000
Only 10% of the actives are under $1,000,000, and 35% are over $3,000,000!
Here are the Actives/Pendings ratios for each area. If you remove La Jolla and RSF, the A/P = 432/336, or 1.29 to 1!
The no-reserve auction of Matt Kemp’s house in Poway today was postponed until April 25th.
Why would you postpone for 5 days?
There has to be buyers. This company has been very successful in selling seven and $8-figure homes throughout the world, and they have grown exponentially. The auction process is a big hit, and it is the best solution for selling homes.
George guessed that it could be a failed auction before I saw it get postponed on the website. He’s looking very astute now….or is George an insider? 😆
The auction of Matt Kemp’s house in Poway is Thursday!
You can watch the auction live at 4:00pm Pacific Time on the Concierge Auctions mobile app, where you can also find their rules list. They will add a 10% buyer’s premium to the winning bid to determine the final sales price. If you didn’t know that and want to change your bid, feel free!
Kemp has $12,000,000 invested. The person with the closest guess will receive four tickets to a Padres game! Here are the guesses:
$4,200,000 – Rob
$4,735,000 – BAM
$5,325,000 – Amy
$5,700,000 – elbarcosr
$5,900,000 – Real Estate Rookie
$6,200,000 – Nick LB
$6,250,000 – Tom
$6,500,000 – LT
$6,519,000 – Matt V.
$6,900,000 – Daniel
$7,050,000 – Susie
$7,126.000 – Ed
$7,350,000 – Mark H.
$7,423,200 – Goughy
$7,875,000 – Kerry
$7,900,000 – kman
$8,000,000 – Name
$8,800,000 – Mike M.
$8,888,888.88 – JakeL
$9,100,000 – Lifeisradincarlsbad
$9,210,000 – CJ
$9,400,000 – Derek
$9,500,000 – Joe k
$9,600,000 – Mike Call
$9,750,000 – bode
$9,800,000 – Jenny
$10,000,200 – Janet
$10,527,000 – Eddie89
There is still time – leave your guess in the comment section below.
We lost a true guitar hero, J. Geils, on April 11th.
He mentions touring with the Stones in 1982 – were you one of the 100,000 who attended their show at the L.A. Coliseum? The band was rocking that day!
But he and the band had disputes later, and there aren’t many great live show on youtube with J. Geils in them – lately the band was playing without him. But this video has him talking about his guitars, and playing a little:
If you get a chance, watch the next video too about his Italian cars!
The EB-5 visa program expires next weekend - now what? Trump Policy Impact on Real Estate Still Unclear nyti.ms/2pODTyu
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