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Journal

Pendings

Rich has his latest report on the San Diego stats:

https://piggington.com/july_2017_housing_data_chartsngraphs

In his graph above, you can see that the county has been cooking this summer, with as many pendings as we’ve had in recent years!

In spite of higher pricing, we’ve also had fewer homes to consider.  Isn’t it mind-boggling that in a county of more than 3 million people, we’ve had less than 6,000 homes for sale all year?

We’ve been following the weekly new pendings between La Jolla and Carlsbad since 2013, but I haven’t monitored the NSDCC total pendings.  Any rise and fall in the total-pendings count would be a precursor to a change in sales count, which would give us a hint of a new trend.

The NSDCC pendings count has been in the 400s over the last few months, so as summer winds up, these numbers aren’t surprising:

NSDCC Total Pendings today: 373

NSDCC Pendings, 20+ Days: 194

The houses that are still pending after 20 days have probably released their contingencies, and are on their way to the finish line.  I will keep track of them from now on to see if the trend reveals anything new!

Posted by on Aug 22, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, NSDCC Pendings, Rich Toscano | 0 comments

Inventory Watch

Another good week for new pendings, and we’re running at roughly the same pace as last year:

Week
New Listings
New Pendings
Jul 24
86
61
Jul 31
90
75
Aug 7
99
71
Aug 14
76
65
Aug 21
83
62

We’ve had the quandary of the high-end market being bloated for years, while the lower-end has been red hot with very little inventory.

But look at this development in less than two months:

The UNDER-$800,000 Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
DOM
Avg SF
July 3
21
$442/sf
41
1,719sf
August 21
39
$428/sf
40
1,804sf

Stick around, it’s going to be an exciting off-season!

Read More

Posted by on Aug 21, 2017 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 1 comment

Robo-Appraisals

‘Warranty relief’ means that taxpayers will be on the hook.

LINK

Freddie Mac announced Friday it is making buying a home a better experience for lender and homebuyers – by cutting the appraiser out of the process.

The company is now offering a new product which will cut the appraisal process out of qualified home purchases and refinances. This could save borrowers an estimated $500 in fees and could reduce closing times by as much as 10 days.

The new Automated Collateral Evaluation assesses the need for a traditional appraisal by using proprietary models and utilizing data from multiple listing services and public records as well as the historical home values in order to determine collateral risks.

“By leveraging big data and advanced analytics, as well as 40+ years of historical data, we’re cutting costs and speeding up the closing process for borrowers,” said David Lowman, Freddie Mac executive vice president of single-family business.

“At the same time, we’re providing immediate collateral representation and warranty relief to lenders,” Lowman said. “This is just one example of how we are reimagining the mortgage process to create a better experience for consumers and lenders.”

Lenders can determine if a property is eligible for ACE by submitting the data through Freddie’s loan product advisor. This will then assess credit, capacity and collateral to determine the quality of the loan. Lenders will receive the risk assessment feedback in real time.

ACE will be available for home purchases beginning on September 1, 2017.

Earlier this summer, the company announced it began using this product on qualified refis beginning June 19, 2017.

“When we launched loan advisor suite in July 2016, we set out to give our customers certainty, usability, reliability and efficiency,” said Andy Higginbotham, senior vice president of strategic delivery and operations for Freddie Mac’s single-family business. “ACE is our most recent capability to deliver on that vision.”

Fannie Mae also updated its policy on appraisals this year, and clarified its “existing policy that allows an unlicensed or uncertified appraiser, or an appraiser trainee to complete the property inspection. When the unlicensed or uncertified appraiser or appraiser trainee completes the property inspection, the supervisory appraiser is not required to also inspect the property.”

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Posted by on Aug 19, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, Mortgage News, Mortgage Qualifying | 1 comment

Bel Air

Even the rich and famous have trouble buying a home….

LINK

The “will they or won’t they” debate is over: Jay-Z and Beyonce have finally bought a home in L.A.

Sources not authorized to publicly comment on the sale have confirmed that the rapper/hip-hop magnate and his superstar wife have closed on a modern mansion in Bel-Air. The purchase price is said to be $90 million, though the sale has not yet been recorded in the public record.

Completed this year, the sprawling showplace comprises six structures with approximately 30,000 square feet of interior space. Expansive patios and terraces create an additional 10,000 square feet of living space outdoors.

Amenities include spa and wellness facilities, a media room and four outdoor swimming pools. Glass-walled common areas open on two sides to enjoy panoramic views. The pocketing glass doors and windows are bulletproof.

Also within the approximately two-acre compound is a full basketball court and separate staff quarters. There is garage space for 15 vehicles as well as a motor court and an area for staff parking.

The home was developed by Dean McKillen, the son of Irish billionaire and property investor Paddy McKillen, who four years ago purchased the property through a corporate entity for $15 million.

The new development was never publicly offered for sale, but carried an asking price of $135 million, according to real estate sources.

The purchase finally puts to bed years of rumor and speculation connecting Jay-Z and Beyonce to other luxury homes across Los Angeles’ Westside. Among the couple’s purported misses was L.A.’s “most extreme home,” which sold to Minecraft creator Markus Persson for $70 million, and a modern Holmby Hills estate that they once paid $200,000 to lease for a month.

Once recorded, the $90-million transaction will be the highest this year in Los Angeles County, besting the $85-million sale of David Geffen’s compound in Malibu. It will also tie last year’s sale of storied Owlwood for the third-most expensive historically in the L.A. area.

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Posted by on Aug 19, 2017 in Interesting Houses, Jim's Take on the Market | 2 comments

Housing Jitters

The economists like the housing market, but they are known to play it safe.

How about the consumers?

I’d prefer to survey the active home buyers and sellers in our area to get the best reading on our future.  But here are the sentiments of 1,079 American adults over the age of 18 who were surveyed last month:

Fifty-eight percent of homeowners say that they expect there will be a “housing bubble and a price correction” in the next two years – up 12 percentage points since April.

Looking across the country, residents in hot housing states are particularly jittery. The top five states where residents believe the market is approaching a “housing bubble” include:

  1. Washington (71 percent)
  2. New York (68 percent)
  3. Florida (63 percent)
  4. California (59 percent)
  5. Texas (58 percent)

While experts have long suggested living in a home for more than seven years could lower a homebuyer’s exposure to market fluctuations, only 37 percent of millennials in the survey plan to live in next home they buy for more than six years, making the so-called “rule of seven” less relevant to the next generation of serial homebuyers.

“Beyond the jitters, I see in our survey an increasingly informed nation of homebuyers, who understand the risk of the market,” said Melendez. “To those concerned about a price correction, or waiting to time the market, I recommend a proactive approach. Have an exit plan, then anytime you find a home you love is a good time to buy.”

Read full article here:

LINK

How do you feel?  Leave your thoughts in the comment section!

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Posted by on Aug 17, 2017 in Forecasts, Jim's Take on the Market, Market Buzz, Market Conditions, Thinking of Buying?, Thinking of Selling? | 7 comments

Economists: Appreciation to Continue

Home values continue to climb, passing $200,000 in June for the first time ever. A panel of more than 100 real estate economists and experts expect that trend will continue – while they say, on average, that there’s a 52 percent probability of the next recession starting by the end of 2019.

  • On average, real estate economists and experts say there’s a 52 percent probability of next recession starting by the end of 2019.
  • Most experts expect a geopolitical crisis will trigger the next recession, which a majority believe will have only a moderate impact on U.S. housing.
  • Home values will climb 5.08 percent by the end of 2017, the group said.

The probability jumps to 73 percent for a recession starting by the end of 2020, according to the Q3 2017 Zillow Home Price Expectations Survey (ZHPE), a quarterly survey sponsored by Zillow and conducted by Pulsenomics LLC. The latest survey was conducted in late July and early August.

Most of the panel’s experts (67) think a geopolitical crisis is likely to be a major trigger for the next recession. That would be a rare occurrence. Although the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, prolonged a recession, most sustained downturns – including that one – have not started with a geopolitical crisis.

The panel ranked likely triggers as 1, 2 and 3 – and with that weighting, a geopolitical crisis also came out ahead, with a score of 138. It was higher than a score of 111 for monetary policy, 101 for a stock market correction and 55 for political gridlock as other possible recession triggers.

On average, the group expects the next recession to have only a moderate impact on U.S. housing. The group said San Francisco and Miami would be the most affected, followed by Los Angeles, New York, San Diego and Seattle.

https://www.zillow.com/research/experts-recession-late-2019-16334/

Posted by on Aug 17, 2017 in Forecasts, Jim's Take on the Market, Zillow | 0 comments