Menu
TwitterRssFacebook
More Links

Are you looking for an experienced agent to help you buy or sell a home? Contact Jim the Realtor!

Carlsbad
(760) 434-5000

Carmel Valley
(858) 560-7700
jim@jimklinge.com


Journal

News Corp vs. Godzillow?

news corp logo

I don’t know what this means yet for consumers, but realtors have been losing control of our destiny all year – at least News Corp might put up a fight. 

From HW:

http://www.housingwire.com/articles/31540-news-corp-will-buy-move-for-950-million

“This acquisition will accelerate News Corp’s digital and global expansion and contribute to the transformation of our company, making online real estate a powerful pillar of our portfolio,” said Robert Thomson, Chief Executive of News Corp.

“We intend to use our media platforms and compelling content to turbo-charge traffic growth and create the most successful real estate website in the US,” Thomson added. “We are building on our existing real estate expertise and expect to leverage the potential of Move and its valuable connections with Realtors and consumers around the country.”

NAR puts their old-fashioned spin on it here:

http://www.inman.com/2014/09/30/news-corp-set-to-acquire-realtor-com-operator-move-inc/

Posted by on Sep 30, 2014 in Can You Top This?, Listing Agent Practices, The Future | 11 comments

SD Case-Shiller Index, July 2014

July 2014 C-S

The San Diego Case-Shiller Index continues its ride to flatsville, with the July reading rising a scant 0.34% month-over-month. The year-over-year comparison dipped into single digits too, rising 8.27%, which still sounds positive to me.

But the deceleration is in, and the month-over-month reading is likely to go negative – possibly as soon as next month.  But that will be the week of Halloween and well into the off-season, when not as many people will notice.

These are the Case-Shiller Index NSA changes below for San Diego:

Month
M-O-M
Y-O-Y
Jan ’13
-1.0%
+9.8%
Feb ’13
+1.0%
+10.2%
March ’13
+2.0%
+12.1%
April ’13
+2.8%
+14.7%
May ’13
+3.2%
+17.3%
June ’13
+2.8%
+19.3%
July ’13
+2.0%
+20.4%
August ’13
+1.8%
+21.5%
September ’13
+0.9%
+20.9%
October ’13
+0.3%
+19.7%
November ’13
+0.0%
+18.7%
December ’13
-0.1%
+18.0%
January ’14
+0.6%
+19.4%
February ’14
+1.0%
+19.9%
March ’14
+1.3%
+18.9%
April ’14
+0.8%
+15.3%
May ’14
+0.5%
+12.4%
June ’14
+0.68%
+10.2%
July ’14
+0.34%
+8.3%

Case Shiller July 2014

Posted by on Sep 30, 2014 in Jim's Take on the Market, Same-House Sales | 0 comments

Carmel Valley For Example

carmel valley 92130 map

Reader elbarcosr sent in these thoughts and numbers on Carmel Valley:

I always pause and try to take a big-picture look at the market each month when you post inventory watch.  I get confused trying to get a feel for where the market is actually doing since so many stats come out blending apples and oranges and focusing on MOM or YOY, which I don’t like since snapshots seem misleading to me.

So I ran a comparison for 92130 detached solds for 1/1 to 9/29 for 2013 and 2014.  Limited it to 4br, over 2500 sq ft and under 1.8 since I think that is the sweet spot for CV, albeit maybe I should have lowered the top end sales price.  I didn’t delete any anomalies off the results, though it might have provided more accuracy had I done that.

I think 92130 is a decent proxy since there is a lot of volume and the houses are fairly interchangeable, give or take.  You can’t use west of the 5 as any over-all indicator I don’t think, Encinitas is pretty scattered with product variation and I don’t know Carlsbad all that well.

Data Point
2013
2014
% Diff
No. of Sales
250
176
-30%
Avg SP
$1,180,920
$1,236,260
+5%
Med SP
$1,199,000
$1,237,500
+3%
Avg $/sf
$356/sf
$374/sf
+5%
Med $/sf
$353/sf
$376/sf
+7%
Avg DOM
35
35
0%
Med DOM
17
23
+35%

What do these numbers say?  Perhaps despite all the histrionics needed to sell papers (I guess generate clicks would be more accurate), has 2014 just been a slightly boring to above-average year?  DOM still seems pretty low.

JtR thoughts:

1.  The price increases on top of last year’s frenzy are impressive, but they are relatively modest – and not large enough to scare off buyers who have already seen a 19% increase in the average cost-per-sf since 2012. So something else is contributing to the rather-large 30% drop in sales - either not enough houses for sale, or we’re running out of buyers.

Carmel Valley Total Detached-Home Listings Jan 1 – Sept. 15

2013 = 606

2014 = 563  (-7%)

There have been 7% fewer houses listed for sale in 2014, but sales are down 30%.  My guess is that the ‘inferior’ houses for sale are not selling like they were in 2013, and contributing to the rest of the difference.  Without frenzy, buyers get picky.

2. Run Out of Buyers? It sounds far-fetched, but once they buy their residence, buyers are done (or look elsewhere for rentals). There have been 841 CV resales over $1,000,000 in the last 48 months, and while there will always be buyers, the demand has to be thinning out somewhat with higher pricing.

3.  Carmel Valley is its own club - there isn’t a substitute.  The only other way to stay in the Del Mar School District is to move to Del Mar, where it costs more and you don’t have easy choices like you do with the newer tract homes that populate the 92130.  Same if you’re on the north side of CV and in Solana Beach schools – moving to Solana Beach takes big money and you’re probably going to buy an older home that needs work.  Ewwww

4.  The Days on Market has been fast-forwarded due to new listings being disseminated to buyers within minutes of hitting the MLS – and it has helped to inflict urgency too.  But the hyper-speed also contributes to listings going stale after a week or two, because both buyers and agents keep a Teflon memory, and consider a new listing for about as long as a loaf of bread.  I doubt it will change, and sellers need to be sharp on price from the beginning.

I agree with elbarcosr that Carmel Valley is a decent proxy for the rest of the local market.  It is by far the best place to compare like-kind properties, due to it being almost exclusively newer tract houses – and built by the same builder! And while the rest of SD County doesn’t enjoy the confluence of location, schools, and proximity of employers like Carmel Valley, at least we can learn from its general market data and see if it applies elsewhere.

Posted by on Sep 29, 2014 in Bubbleinfo Readers, Carmel Valley, Jim's Take on the Market | 11 comments

Inventory Watch – Steady

sept 2014

The national Pending Home Sales fell 1% in August – that’s it? The west was up 2.6%, which is even more surprising, but the lower-end homes are probably carrying the load.   Chargers looked good too, but injuries might catch up with them:

The UNDER-$800,000 Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
DOM
Avg SF
November 25
95
$376/sf
47
1,988sf
December 2
79
$371/sf
50
2,047sf
December 9
72
$383/sf
43
1,954sf
December 16
81
$378/sf
42
1,948sf
December 23
77
$374/sf
49
1,937sf
December 30
76
$373/sf
51
1,950sf
January 6
74
$370/sf
49
1,995sf
January 13
71
$381/sf
44
1,921sf
January 20
72
$384/sf
41
1,877sf
January 27
75
$399/sf
40
1,891sf
February 3
78
$409/sf
41
1,876sf
February 10
82
$395/sf
38
1,927sf
February 17
85
$387/sf
35
1,929sf
February 24
90
$383/sf
37
2,008sf
March 3
82
$397/sf
39
1,942sf
March 10
88
$377/sf
37
2,008sf
March 17
89
$366/sf
34
2,038sf
March 24
79
$369/sf
34
2,031sf
March 31
78
$367/sf
39
2,069sf
April 7
87
$373/sf
32
2,054sf
April 14
97
$380/sf
31
2,000sf
April 21
87
$377/sf
32
2,062sf
April 28
107
$379/sf
29
2,044sf
May 5
114
$376/sf
27
2,046sf
May 12
108
$385/sf
31
2,012sf
May 19
107
$385/sf
0
0sf
May 26
105
$375/sf
34
0sf
Jun 2
102
$376/sf
36
0sf
Jun 9
102
$377/sf
37
0sf
Jun 16
104
$369/sf
35
0sf
Jun 23
111
$380/sf
34
0sf
Jun 30
119
$376/sf
36
0sf
Jul 7
122
$387/sf
36
0sf
Jul 14
127
$388/sf
34
0sf
Jul 21
135
$381/sf
36
0sf
Jul 28
144
$382/sf
37
0sf
Aug 4
148
$379/sf
39
0sf
Aug 11
135
$375/sf
42
0sf
Aug 25
135
$374/sf
43
0sf
Sep 1
126
$377/sf
46
0sf
Sep 8
130
$375/sf
46
0sf
Sep 15
134
$369/sf
45
0sf
Sep 22
127
$376/sf
49
0sf
Sep 29
132
$378/sf
48
0sf


The $800,000 – $1,400,000 Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
DOM
Avg SF
November 25
245
$448/sf
61
2,856sf
December 2
239
$448/sf
64
2,851sf
December 9
226
$461/sf
65
2,812sf
December 16
211
$464/sf
66
2,794sf
December 23
197
$453/sf
73
2,813sf
December 30
173
$450/sf
78
2,821sf
January 6
170
$470/sf
65
2,757sf
January 13
168
$463/sf
59
2,764sf
January 20
174
$444/sf
51
2,882sf
January 27
166
$435/sf
52
2,902sf
February 3
165
$441/sf
53
2,857sf
February 10
175
$443/sf
51
2,852sf
February 17
180
$447/sf
50
2,803sf
February 24
188
$438/sf
44
2,846sf
March 3
202
$421/sf
44
2,936sf
March 10
215
$431/sf
41
2,854sf
March 17
223
$421/sf
42
2,918sf
March 24
217
$419/sf
42
2,941sf
March 31
223
$425/sf
44
2,887sf
April 7
224
$428/sf
44
2,881sf
April 14
233
$429/sf
44
2,892sf
April 21
237
$432/sf
44
2,894sf
April 28
240
$430/sf
45
2,848sf
May 5
272
$434/sf
42
2,838sf
May 12
269
$438/sf
42
2,831sf
May 19
275
$436/sf
0
0sf
May 26
276
$429/sf
49
0sf
Jun 2
270
$431/sf
50
0sf
Jun 9
292
$454/sf
52
0sf
Jun 16
299
$443/sf
52
0sf
Jun 23
304
$437/sf
51
0sf
Jun 30
304
$431/sf
53
0sf
Jul 7
307
$423/sf
55
0sf
Jul 14
297
$421/sf
54
0sf
Jul 21
310
$410/sf
53
0sf
Jul 28
329
$411/sf
53
0sf
Aug 4
337
$415/sf
52
0sf
Aug 11
336
$420/sf
51
0sf
Aug 25
318
$428/sf
55
0sf
Sep 1
310
$426/sf
56
0sf
Sep 8
306
$427/sf
56
0sf
Sep 15
312
$434/sf
57
0sf
Sep 22
315
$435/sf
60
0sf
Sep 29
308
$443/sf
59
0sf

The $1,400,000 – $2,400,000 Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
DOM
Avg SF
November 25
227
$580/sf
81
3,692sf
December 2
222
$588/sf
85
3,653sf
December 9
219
$586/sf
87
3,636sf
December 16
211
$593/sf
88
3,627sf
December 23
196
$601/sf
94
3,581sf
December 30
190
$597/sf
100
3,591sf
January 6
175
$595/sf
97
3,594sf
January 13
184
$600/sf
92
3,590sf
January 20
187
$589/sf
83
3,663sf
January 27
195
$589/sf
80
3,649sf
February 3
196
$573/sf
78
3,730sf
February 10
205
$583/sf
76
3,687sf
February 17
216
$582/sf
72
3,729sf
February 24
211
$584/sf
77
3,744sf
March 3
221
$585/sf
78
3,761sf
March 10
228
$585/sf
77
3,740sf
March 17
217
$584/sf
75
3,744sf
March 24
231
$584/sf
73
3,742sf
March 31
232
$569/sf
71
3,750sf
April 7
230
$569/sf
71
3,753sf
April 14
233
$564/sf
69
3,748sf
April 21
244
$563/sf
67
3,780sf
April 28
238
$566/sf
66
3,757sf
May 5
247
$571/sf
61
3,746sf
May 12
251
$559/sf
64
3,782sf
May 19
256
$562/sf
0
0sf
May 26
263
$552/sf
69
0sf
Jun 2
261
$561/sf
69
0sf
Jun 9
273
$566/sf
70
0sf
Jun 16
276
$571/sf
70
0sf
Jun 23
289
$581/sf
70
0sf
Jun 30
292
$594/sf
72
0sf
Jul 7
288
$588/sf
74
0sf
Jul 14
290
$590/sf
72
0sf
Jul 21
277
$578/sf
74
0sf
Jul 28
271
$579/sf
71
0sf
Aug 4
269
$586/sf
70
0sf
Aug 11
276
$571/sf
71
0sf
Aug 25
271
$579/sf
81
0sf
Sep 1
265
$581/sf
82
0sf
Sep 8
270
$580/sf
80
0sf
Sep 15
279
$575/sf
82
0sf
Sep 22
281
$563/sf
83
Sep 29
278
$568/sf
82
0sf

The OVER-$2,400,000 Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
DOM
Avg SF
November 25
340
$1,040/sf
159
6,347sf
December 2
330
$1,049/sf
160
6,342sf
December 9
318
$1,057/sf
163
6,392sf
December 16
317
$1,049/sf
163
6,420sf
December 23
302
$1,063/sf
169
6,405sf
December 30
285
$1,074/sf
174
6,460sf
January 6
285
$1,073/sf
171
6,477sf
January 13
295
$1,057/sf
168
6,480sf
January 20
297
$1,050/sf
157
6,537sf
January 27
307
$1,041/sf
152
6,513sf
February 3
297
$1,048/sf
152
6,545sf
February 10
315
$1,024/sf
146
6,519sf
February 17
315
$1,030/sf
148
6,572sf
February 24
314
$1,028/sf
148
6,611sf
March 3
309
$1,004/sf
145
6,628sf
March 10
316
$1,011/sf
141
6,576sf
March 17
329
$999/sf
136
6,557sf
March 24
331
$995/sf
131
6,563sf
March 31
336
$995/sf
131
6,574sf
April 7
345
$988/sf
128
6,477sf
April 14
349
$996/sf
126
6,534sf
April 21
353
$995/sf
124
6,523sf
April 28
366
$980/sf
120
6,543sf
May 5
379
$974/sf
119
6,539sf
May 12
388
$967/sf
118
6,509sf
May 19
390
$1,000/sf
0
0sf
May 26
393
$1,015/sf
122
0sf
Jun 2
395
$1,007/sf
124
0sf
Jun 9
398
$1,010/sf
125
0sf
Jun 16
397
$1,016/sf
130
0sf
Jun 23
417
$911/sf
116
0sf
Jun 30
416
$904/sf
120
0sf
Jul 7
411
$912/sf
120
0sf
Jul 14
419
$893/sf
119
0sf
Jul 21
424
$884/sf
119
0sf
Jul 28
423
$882/sf
123
0sf
Aug 4
420
$888/sf
126
0sf
Aug 11
424
$891/sf
127
0sf
Aug 25
427
$878/sf
128
0sf
Sep 1
419
$863/sf
133
0sf
Sep 8
412
$900/sf
139
0sf
Sep 15
415
$883/sf
139
0sf
Sep 22
426
$849/sf
136
0sf
Sep 29
423
$866/sf
141
0sf

New pendings have been remarkably consistent over the last couple of months:

Weekly NSDCC New Listings and New Pendings

Week
New Listings
New Pendings
May 30
70
84
June 5
87
64
June 11
77
69
June 17
73
66
June 24
100
69
July 1
86
64
July 8
81
53
July 15
106
54
July 22
105
89
July 29
71
74
Aug 5
105
64
Aug 12
77
61
Aug 19
88
73
Aug 26
87
77
Sep 2
76
55
Sep 9
85
58
Sep 16
102
61
Sep 23
84
54
Sep 30
73
80
Oct 7
80
61
Oct 14
78
53
Oct 21
70
63
Oct 28
54
40
Nov 4
63
53
Nov 11
49
64
Nov 18
52
44
Nov 25
48
40
Dec 2
25
34
Dec 9
45
47
Dec 16
56
46
Dec 23
21
39
Dec 30
14
23
Jan 6
63
25
Jan 13
75
44
Jan 20
98
51
Jan 27
71
56
Feb 3
74
63
Feb 10
95
59
Feb 17
81
76
Feb 24
80
70
Mar 3
88
71
Mar 10
98
54
Mar 17
87
65
Mar 24
89
76
Mar 31
77
57
April 7
98
61
April 14
108
72
April 21
87
62
April 28
122
73
May 5
144
67
May 12
96
85
May 19
87
61
May 26
97
72
Jun 2
90
59
Jun 9
108
52
Jun 16
103
65
Jun 23
131
62
Jun 30
85
70
July 7
83
59
July 14
100
62
July 21
112
75
July 28
113
62
Aug 4
84
48
Aug 11
95
62
Aug 18
83
54
Aug 25
72
54
Sep 1
71
60
Sep 8
81
57
Sep 15
80
49
Sep 22
77
49
Sep 29
79
51

Posted by on Sep 29, 2014 in Inventory | 1 comment

Wholesale-To-Retail Spread

Are you thinking of selling your home, and wondering how to go about it?

How you sell your house has an impact on the price, which is driven by the comfort level of the buyer.  There is typically as much as a 10% swing in pricing within the same neighborhood, depending on location in the tract, condition of the home, and how the house is sold.

Here is a general guide to sales-method-to-achieve-desired-price:

WHOLESALE PRICE – Stick a sign in the yard, and someone will come along.

WHOLESALE-PLUS – Stick a sign in the yard and an ad on Craigslist.

AUCTION – Hard to know if you’ll get wholesale or retail due to the limiting factors.  Qualified buyers may be turned off by their perception of the potential reserve price, the buyer’s premium, or slick-talking auctioneers.

RETAIL – You do your homework and hire an experienced, competent agent to sell your above-average home with good curb appeal in a popular area.  You agree to an attractive list price, and the agent conducts a mass-marketing campaign that generates an offer or two during the first week on the market.  You negotiate in good faith, and together you find a way to the finish line.

RETAIL-PLUS – You do your homework and hire an experienced, competent agent to sell your above-average home with good curb appeal in a popular area.  You agree to an attractive list price, and the agent conducts a mass-marketing campaign that generates multiple offers during the first week on the market.  Your crafty agent pits them against each other, and the ensuing bidding war causes an above-market sale.  But without a frenzy to drive the sale, buyers are more cautious, and look for any reason to cancel and get back on the fence, hoping prices come down. Here are the potential hurdles to closing a Retail-Plus sale:

  • Inspection reveals defects – The defects give the buyer a reason to try and clawback some of that retail-plus price.  How your agent handles this critical juncture will determine whether the retail-plus price – and sale – sticks.
  • Appraisal is a challenge – Your agent has to know the comps, and can present a compelling case that convinces an anonymous appraiser of the value.
  • Other agent is a ding-dong – The good buyer’s agents have already talked their buyers out of paying this high of a price, so you are left with the inexperienced/desperate realtors who don’t know, or don’t mind if their clients pay too much.  Somehow your agent has to find a way to get them to the finish line, usually in spite of the buyer’s agent.

You don’t need an agent to sell your house - and you could take a chance on beating the odds by short-cutting this list and still move up a notch.  But now that the frenzy is over, buyers are reluctant to throw crazy money at houses any more – unless you get great help!

Posted by on Sep 28, 2014 in Jim's Take on the Market, Listing Agent Practices, Thinking of Selling?, Why You Should List With Jim | 0 comments

Baby Boomers

From John Burns:

http://www.realestateconsulting.com/

It’s here. Every month, more than a quarter million Americans are turning 65.  Almost 80 million Baby Boomers, born over a span of 19 years, are shifting gears towards retirement…or whatever else is next.

Here are a few facts:

  1. The Boomers are the largest group of shoppers looking for a home today nationally, based on our Consumer Insights survey.
  2. They were waiting for their home equity to come back, based on our survey in 2012. Now, they have equity in their pockets and they are ready to move.
  3. More than 10,000 of these Boomers are turning 65 every day. This will continue well into the next decade.
  4. They are working longer and living longer.
  5. The Boomers are the most likely to report that they cannot find what they are looking for in today’s existing housing stock.

Of the 22,000 home shoppers who took our 2014 Consumer Insights survey, 42% of them are 55+ and shared with us that:

  • Home design will make them move (it is the third-most-important motivator for moving after location and price), but 55% say they can’t find what they are looking for.
  • 43% want to downsize, with most wanting 1,500–1,999 square feet.
  • Among those without children:
    • 46% want to live in a community that is more multigenerational
    • 33% want an age-restricted community
    • 21% want an age-targeted community

    (Preference for age-restricted and age-targeted communities varies widely by geography.)

The opportunities offered by the 55+ population are huge. They represent:

  • 25% of the total population
  • 50%+ of current homeowners (likely with plenty of equity) and have a homeownership rate in excess of 75%
  • 30%+ of total home transactions

All of these rates are only getting bigger.  The challenge is that the 55+ homeowner population tends to stay in place—less than 3% move per year, although it is higher for the younger portion of this cohort.

Posted by on Sep 26, 2014 in Boomers | 8 comments

Home Appreciation & Supply

John has an in-depth article out on home-price appreciation, and he’s no ivory-tower guy – his staff is on the street daily:

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/article/20140917105113-3073844-behind-the-scenes-the-never-ending-puzzle-of-projecting-home-price-appreciation

An excerpt:

Rolling it all up, we are projecting 4% price appreciation for the country next year, with wild variations by market, huge vulnerability to changing mortgage rates, and a wide variety in risk levels (San Francisco looks to be in a mini bubble, but bubbles can go on for quite some time, while Atlanta looks to be very underpriced).

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

He mentioned that the best measure of pricing trends is the “number of months of supply of homes”.  He didn’t say what he considers ‘normal’, and not sure we’ll ever have that again anyway!  But it used to be that six months of supply was considered balanced.

Here are the current active listings of detached homes, divided by August closed sales:

NSDCC: 1,100/244 = 4.51 months.

SD County: 5,814/1,885 = 3.08 months.

I’m not sure how much you can read into this statistic though, because 867 (79%) of the NSDCC homes for sale are priced over $1,000,000, and only 1,086 sales have closed over $1,000,000 this year.  If we divide the 1,086 by 8.5 = 128 per month, which means there is an approximate 6.8-month supply of million-dollar homes for sale currently.

But following this stat over time would identify the trend.  I’ve added a new category so we can track it from now on!

Posted by on Sep 25, 2014 in Forecasts, Jim's Take on the Market, Month's Supply | 0 comments

Pink Floyd

dark side

Let’s quit fooling around and get down to what matters – bands that had a profound influence on our upbringing.  The hallucinogenic era wouldn’t have been the same without these guys.  By the time you get to the 0.50-minute mark, be at full screen, and full volume:

Pink Floyd has a new album coming out on November 10th: http://www.nydailynews.com/entertainment/music/pink-floyd-releasing-new-album-november-article-1.1949595

Posted by on Sep 24, 2014 in Wednesday Rock Blogging | 5 comments