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Journal

Petco Seats

The two tickets to see Sir Paul at Petco Park are in Field Box 112, Row 11, where this photo was taken – the stage will be in center field.  The winners will be sitting above the people on the field, and about eye level with Paul!

Petco Row 11

Two other photos taken yesterday – this at Scripps Poway and I-15 at 3:30pm:

105 degrees

The monsoon that hit Sorrento Valley around 5:30pm:

monsoon double rainbow

Posted by on Sep 17, 2014 in Jim's Take on the Market, Local Flavor | 3 comments

Join Jim’s Club!

Paul McCartney

To help build the Jim’s Club membership, we’re having a drawing for two tickets to the Paul McCartney show at Petco Park!

For those who would like to receive my monthly newsletter by email, click on the image above, register your email address and check the yes box, and you will be entered into the drawing!

Or click here:

www.bubbleinfo.com/paul

Posted by on Sep 16, 2014 in Local Flavor | 1 comment

SD Market Trends

SD prices

The graph above shows how San Diego home buyers have been more patient since rates went up last summer.  They finally conceded some ground, pricewise, over the last couple of months to log a 8.8% increase in the median $/sf year-over-year, but it was flatlining for almost 12 months.

The graph below shows how the active inventory increased steadily since spring (blue line), and though it dropped 7% since last month, it is still 3% higher year-over-year.  In spite of my pleas over the last 2 days for sellers to stay on the market, it’s likely that the active inventory will decline sharply through the holidays (like last year):

SD pricing

Posted by on Sep 16, 2014 in Jim's Take on the Market, Sales and Price Check | 1 comment

More on the Wait-It-Out Plan

Easing up

I just noticed this article from Friday’s latimes.com:

http://www.latimes.com/business/realestate/la-fi-home-prices-20140912-story.html

An excerpt:

Silva said some of his clients are receptive to the idea of cutting prices to sell their homes. But some sellers — those with less motivation to move now — are pulling their homes off the market, said Steve Shrager, an agent with Coldwell Banker in Studio City.

Sellers who can’t get the price they want are choosing to rent their home, or try to sell again in another year.

“They feel the price can’t go anywhere but up,” Shrager said.

Buyers are choosier too, he notes. Though price growth has leveled off, many buyers still aren’t seeing bargains. And while the selection of homes has expanded, some aren’t finding any property they really want.

Some, he said, are choosing to stay put, or maybe try the market again next spring.

“I don’t want to use the word correction, but we’re in a bit of an adjustment period right now,” Shrager said.

Waiting for the spring selling season is fairly normal behavior for both buyers and sellers, Thomas said. But after a decade of boom, bust and boom again, many aren’t sure how to react to a normal market.

“People are not used to this,” he said. “That’s why you get some panic. Eventually these houses will sell. You just have to be patient.”

Most sellers and listing agents will opt for the wait-it-out plan, mostly because they are avoiding the price-might-be-wrong conversation.

Sellers and listing agents don’t know how wrong the current price is, and they don’t WANT to know.  All they want is for some nice young family to come along and love the house and price the way they do, and pay full boat.

But the wait-it-out plan doesn’t take into consideration the potential for selling for less, later – and delays the eventual conversation about how much less.

Look how it’s working for this guy – another excerpt:

Patience and price cuts are paying off for Joseph David, an investor and rehabber who listed a blue three-bedroom Craftsman in Highland Park in late June at $624,990. When it went on the market, his agent got a lot of phone calls. Dozens of people showed up at open houses. But none of them pulled the trigger.

“We got a lot of response, but we didn’t get any offers,” David said. “There were a lot of looky-loos.”

Before long, he knocked a bit off his asking price. Then earlier this month, he cut it more sharply, to $549,000.

Interest picked up dramatically. His agent started to get a lot more phone calls, making David confident he’ll get that offer soon.

The investor here is likely to end up at $100,000 under his initial list price, and leave him wondering if he should wait too, rather than taking such a “loss”.  But it was never worth $624,990, because the market in late June was healthy enough that he would have gotten offers if the price was close to being right.

The biggest problem is that sellers and listing agents are way too optimistic in the beginning, and are unwilling to adjust fast enough to get in the game.

Here is my list-price rule-of-thumb for sellers:

If you are getting offers, your list price must be within 5% of being right.

If you are getting showings but no offers, your price must be 5% to 10% wrong.

If you’re not having any showings, your price is more than 10% wrong.

Here’s an alternative plan for those sellers caught in this dilemma.  Reduce your price once by as much as you can endure (5% to 10%), and if it doesn’t sell by Halloween, then wait until next year.

To just cancel the listing now without a price reduction doesn’t give you any price-discovery data to use when listing next year.  Don’t be surprised if next-year’s comps will suggest starting at the lower price, and leave you wondering if you should have just bit the bullet in 2014.

Posted by on Sep 15, 2014 in Jim's Take on the Market, Thinking of Selling?, Why You Should List With Jim | 4 comments

Inventory Watch Mid-September

Sort of old news. But Victoria’s Secret PINK launched a collection of San Diego Chargers merchandise for all of those female football fans out there. (via VS Makes Groupie Gear look fab in PINK! « POSHGLAM.com)

Great – the Chargers knock off the champs, and now everyone going to be watching football on Sundays, instead of buying houses!

The UNDER-$800,000 Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
DOM
Avg SF
November 25
95
$376/sf
47
1,988sf
December 2
79
$371/sf
50
2,047sf
December 9
72
$383/sf
43
1,954sf
December 16
81
$378/sf
42
1,948sf
December 23
77
$374/sf
49
1,937sf
December 30
76
$373/sf
51
1,950sf
January 6
74
$370/sf
49
1,995sf
January 13
71
$381/sf
44
1,921sf
January 20
72
$384/sf
41
1,877sf
January 27
75
$399/sf
40
1,891sf
February 3
78
$409/sf
41
1,876sf
February 10
82
$395/sf
38
1,927sf
February 17
85
$387/sf
35
1,929sf
February 24
90
$383/sf
37
2,008sf
March 3
82
$397/sf
39
1,942sf
March 10
88
$377/sf
37
2,008sf
March 17
89
$366/sf
34
2,038sf
March 24
79
$369/sf
34
2,031sf
March 31
78
$367/sf
39
2,069sf
April 7
87
$373/sf
32
2,054sf
April 14
97
$380/sf
31
2,000sf
April 21
87
$377/sf
32
2,062sf
April 28
107
$379/sf
29
2,044sf
May 5
114
$376/sf
27
2,046sf
May 12
108
$385/sf
31
2,012sf
May 19
107
$385/sf
0
0sf
May 26
105
$375/sf
34
0sf
Jun 2
102
$376/sf
36
0sf
Jun 9
102
$377/sf
37
0sf
Jun 16
104
$369/sf
35
0sf
Jun 23
111
$380/sf
34
0sf
Jun 30
119
$376/sf
36
0sf
Jul 7
122
$387/sf
36
0sf
Jul 14
127
$388/sf
34
0sf
Jul 21
135
$381/sf
36
0sf
Jul 28
144
$382/sf
37
0sf
Aug 4
148
$379/sf
39
0sf
Aug 11
135
$375/sf
42
0sf
Aug 25
135
$374/sf
43
0sf
Sep 1
126
$377/sf
46
0sf
Sep 8
130
$375/sf
46
0sf
Sep 15
134
$369/sf
45
0sf


The $800,000 – $1,400,000 Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
DOM
Avg SF
November 25
245
$448/sf
61
2,856sf
December 2
239
$448/sf
64
2,851sf
December 9
226
$461/sf
65
2,812sf
December 16
211
$464/sf
66
2,794sf
December 23
197
$453/sf
73
2,813sf
December 30
173
$450/sf
78
2,821sf
January 6
170
$470/sf
65
2,757sf
January 13
168
$463/sf
59
2,764sf
January 20
174
$444/sf
51
2,882sf
January 27
166
$435/sf
52
2,902sf
February 3
165
$441/sf
53
2,857sf
February 10
175
$443/sf
51
2,852sf
February 17
180
$447/sf
50
2,803sf
February 24
188
$438/sf
44
2,846sf
March 3
202
$421/sf
44
2,936sf
March 10
215
$431/sf
41
2,854sf
March 17
223
$421/sf
42
2,918sf
March 24
217
$419/sf
42
2,941sf
March 31
223
$425/sf
44
2,887sf
April 7
224
$428/sf
44
2,881sf
April 14
233
$429/sf
44
2,892sf
April 21
237
$432/sf
44
2,894sf
April 28
240
$430/sf
45
2,848sf
May 5
272
$434/sf
42
2,838sf
May 12
269
$438/sf
42
2,831sf
May 19
275
$436/sf
0
0sf
May 26
276
$429/sf
49
0sf
Jun 2
270
$431/sf
50
0sf
Jun 9
292
$454/sf
52
0sf
Jun 16
299
$443/sf
52
0sf
Jun 23
304
$437/sf
51
0sf
Jun 30
304
$431/sf
53
0sf
Jul 7
307
$423/sf
55
0sf
Jul 14
297
$421/sf
54
0sf
Jul 21
310
$410/sf
53
0sf
Jul 28
329
$411/sf
53
0sf
Aug 4
337
$415/sf
52
0sf
Aug 11
336
$420/sf
51
0sf
Aug 25
318
$428/sf
55
0sf
Sep 1
310
$426/sf
56
0sf
Sep 8
306
$427/sf
56
0sf
Sep 15
312
$434/sf
57
0sf

The $1,400,000 – $2,400,000 Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
DOM
Avg SF
November 25
227
$580/sf
81
3,692sf
December 2
222
$588/sf
85
3,653sf
December 9
219
$586/sf
87
3,636sf
December 16
211
$593/sf
88
3,627sf
December 23
196
$601/sf
94
3,581sf
December 30
190
$597/sf
100
3,591sf
January 6
175
$595/sf
97
3,594sf
January 13
184
$600/sf
92
3,590sf
January 20
187
$589/sf
83
3,663sf
January 27
195
$589/sf
80
3,649sf
February 3
196
$573/sf
78
3,730sf
February 10
205
$583/sf
76
3,687sf
February 17
216
$582/sf
72
3,729sf
February 24
211
$584/sf
77
3,744sf
March 3
221
$585/sf
78
3,761sf
March 10
228
$585/sf
77
3,740sf
March 17
217
$584/sf
75
3,744sf
March 24
231
$584/sf
73
3,742sf
March 31
232
$569/sf
71
3,750sf
April 7
230
$569/sf
71
3,753sf
April 14
233
$564/sf
69
3,748sf
April 21
244
$563/sf
67
3,780sf
April 28
238
$566/sf
66
3,757sf
May 5
247
$571/sf
61
3,746sf
May 12
251
$559/sf
64
3,782sf
May 19
256
$562/sf
0
0sf
May 26
263
$552/sf
69
0sf
Jun 2
261
$561/sf
69
0sf
Jun 9
273
$566/sf
70
0sf
Jun 16
276
$571/sf
70
0sf
Jun 23
289
$581/sf
70
0sf
Jun 30
292
$594/sf
72
0sf
Jul 7
288
$588/sf
74
0sf
Jul 14
290
$590/sf
72
0sf
Jul 21
277
$578/sf
74
0sf
Jul 28
271
$579/sf
71
0sf
Aug 4
269
$586/sf
70
0sf
Aug 11
276
$571/sf
71
0sf
Aug 25
271
$579/sf
81
0sf
Sep 1
265
$581/sf
82
0sf
Sep 8
270
$580/sf
80
0sf
Sep 15
279
$575/sf
82
0sf

The OVER-$2,400,000 Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
DOM
Avg SF
November 25
340
$1,040/sf
159
6,347sf
December 2
330
$1,049/sf
160
6,342sf
December 9
318
$1,057/sf
163
6,392sf
December 16
317
$1,049/sf
163
6,420sf
December 23
302
$1,063/sf
169
6,405sf
December 30
285
$1,074/sf
174
6,460sf
January 6
285
$1,073/sf
171
6,477sf
January 13
295
$1,057/sf
168
6,480sf
January 20
297
$1,050/sf
157
6,537sf
January 27
307
$1,041/sf
152
6,513sf
February 3
297
$1,048/sf
152
6,545sf
February 10
315
$1,024/sf
146
6,519sf
February 17
315
$1,030/sf
148
6,572sf
February 24
314
$1,028/sf
148
6,611sf
March 3
309
$1,004/sf
145
6,628sf
March 10
316
$1,011/sf
141
6,576sf
March 17
329
$999/sf
136
6,557sf
March 24
331
$995/sf
131
6,563sf
March 31
336
$995/sf
131
6,574sf
April 7
345
$988/sf
128
6,477sf
April 14
349
$996/sf
126
6,534sf
April 21
353
$995/sf
124
6,523sf
April 28
366
$980/sf
120
6,543sf
May 5
379
$974/sf
119
6,539sf
May 12
388
$967/sf
118
6,509sf
May 19
390
$1,000/sf
0
0sf
May 26
393
$1,015/sf
122
0sf
Jun 2
395
$1,007/sf
124
0sf
Jun 9
398
$1,010/sf
125
0sf
Jun 16
397
$1,016/sf
130
0sf
Jun 23
417
$911/sf
116
0sf
Jun 30
416
$904/sf
120
0sf
Jul 7
411
$912/sf
120
0sf
Jul 14
419
$893/sf
119
0sf
Jul 21
424
$884/sf
119
0sf
Jul 28
423
$882/sf
123
0sf
Aug 4
420
$888/sf
126
0sf
Aug 11
424
$891/sf
127
0sf
Aug 25
427
$878/sf
128
0sf
Sep 1
419
$863/sf
133
0sf
Sep 8
412
$900/sf
139
0sf
Sep 15
415
$883/sf
139
0sf

Buyers keep buying, but at what price? I haven’t seen any successful lowballs.

Weekly NSDCC New Listings and New Pendings

Week
New Listings
New Pendings
May 30
70
84
June 5
87
64
June 11
77
69
June 17
73
66
June 24
100
69
July 1
86
64
July 8
81
53
July 15
106
54
July 22
105
89
July 29
71
74
Aug 5
105
64
Aug 12
77
61
Aug 19
88
73
Aug 26
87
77
Sep 2
76
55
Sep 9
85
58
Sep 16
102
61
Sep 23
84
54
Sep 30
73
80
Oct 7
80
61
Oct 14
78
53
Oct 21
70
63
Oct 28
54
40
Nov 4
63
53
Nov 11
49
64
Nov 18
52
44
Nov 25
48
40
Dec 2
25
34
Dec 9
45
47
Dec 16
56
46
Dec 23
21
39
Dec 30
14
23
Jan 6
63
25
Jan 13
75
44
Jan 20
98
51
Jan 27
71
56
Feb 3
74
63
Feb 10
95
59
Feb 17
81
76
Feb 24
80
70
Mar 3
88
71
Mar 10
98
54
Mar 17
87
65
Mar 24
89
76
Mar 31
77
57
April 7
98
61
April 14
108
72
April 21
87
62
April 28
122
73
May 5
144
67
May 12
96
85
May 19
87
61
May 26
97
72
Jun 2
90
59
Jun 9
108
52
Jun 16
103
65
Jun 23
131
62
Jun 30
85
70
July 7
83
59
July 14
100
62
July 21
112
75
July 28
113
62
Aug 4
84
48
Aug 11
95
62
Aug 18
83
54
Aug 25
72
54
Sep 1
71
60
Sep 8
81
57
Sep 15
80
49

Posted by on Sep 15, 2014 in Inventory | 6 comments

Keep Trying to Sell, Or Cancel?

As we slide into the “off-season”, sellers are left with the dilemma: Should they keep loitering on the MLS, or cancel the listing and wait for better times.

Here are both sides of the coin:

STAY ON THE MARKET

1. You’ve Come This Far – It is a hassle to keep the house in showing condition, and to work around the appointments – especially with those pesky agents who give little or no notice.  Let’s get this over with!

2.  Your Agent Has Worked For It – You’d like to see the sale happen for your agent’s sake too, because they’ve been at it for weeks or months.

3.  Other Listings Will Cancel – You might have the local market to yourself in 20-40 days, hang in there.

4.  Price Reduction is Mandatory – If you’ve been on the open market for more than 30 days, everyone who is interested in your home has seen it by now. There won’t be many buyers starting their search in fall, so to re-ignite the possible enthusiasm you’ve already built, lower the price 10%.  Don’t scoff – if nobody bought it during the selling season, it’s because your price was too optimistic – and know that 10% might not be enough.

It’s nothing personal; your house is probably worth the money – just not today, apparently.  If you absolutely refuse to lower the price, then you might as well cancel and hope something will be different next year.

CANCEL LISTING, AND TRY AGAIN NEXT YEAR

1.  Agents are Dogs – Once you cancel your listing, you will be hounded by other agents incessantly until you list the home, or die.

2.  More Competition – With the much-higher pricing available, we’ve been expecting a surge of new listings – and you only need a few neighbors to spoil your chances.

3.  Buyers Will Remember You – The new buyers in town will see your previous attempts to sell on Zillow – you’re not going to fool anyone – and they will hold the price failure against you unless reduced.

4. Higher Prices Next Year – The only reason to wait is if you think prices will be higher – and you won’t raise yours!  It’s an important distinction – you’re choosing to wait for prices to catch up with your current list price.

When you look at both sides of this coin, I guess you can say they are pointing in the same direction!

Would it hurt to wait? Yes it could, because if there is a surge of new listings around you, the chances of getting this year’s money is remote (which is probably 5% to 10% below your current list price).

There is an unsettling relationship between the amount of inventory, and buyers’ willingness to step up.  Notice the history of the number of NSDCC detached-home listings below.  After three years of lower counts, in 2006 there was a 16% increase of new listings between Jan 1 and August 31, and it was enough of a surge that not even Angelo’s no-down, no-doc loans could save us:

Year
# of New Listings Between 1/1 – 8/31
2002
4,377
2003
4,037
2004
3,920
2005
3,976
2006
4,602
Year
# of New Listings Between 1/1 – 8/31
2011
3,923
2012
3,335
2013
3,685
2014
3,555
2015
???

The 2003-2005 era was similar to today – a long winning streak of reduced inventory and rising prices. Will 2015 be the year of the inventory surge? If so, you’ll be glad you sold this year.

Posted by on Sep 14, 2014 in Jim's Take on the Market | 4 comments

Subprime Again?

HT to daytrip for sending this in:

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/14/magazine/are-subprime-mortgages-coming-back.html?ref=magazine&_r=1

An excerpt:

This lending freeze is not just preventing people like the Sleimans, who have struggled to document their income, from chasing their dreams. It’s bad for the overall economy too.

Laurie S. Goodman, an expert in housing finance at the Urban Institute, a think tank in Washington, D.C., recently calculated that lenders would have made an additional 1.2 million loans in 2012 had they merely loosened standards to the prevailing level in 2001, well before the industry completely lost its sense of caution.

As a result, fewer young people are now buying first homes, fewer older people are moving up and less money is changing hands. Instead of driving the economic recovery, the housing business is dragging behind. “An overly tight credit box means fewer individuals will become homeowners at exactly the point in the housing cycle when it is advantageous to do so,” Goodman and her co-authors wrote in their study, published in The Journal of Structured Finance. “Ultimately, it hinders the economy through fewer new-home sales and less spending on furnishings, landscaping, renovations and other consumer spending.”

“We’ve locked down mortgage lending to the point where it’s like we’re trying to avoid all defaults,” said William D. Dallas, the chairman of Skyline Home Loans, who has three decades of experience in the industry. “We’re back to using rules that were written for Ozzie and Harriet. And we’ve got to find a way to help normal people start buying homes again.”

Navy Fed is doing their part, and these aren’t VA loans.  Rate is around 5.50%:

Nvfd

Posted by on Sep 13, 2014 in Mortgage News | 6 comments

More on August Sales

Dataquick released the August sales yesterday, and at first glance you might think we should be looking for lifeboats – this is the second month in a row that Dataquick has reported SD sales dropping more than 18%:

http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2014/News/California/Southern-CA/RRSCA140911.aspx

aug 14

But August, 2013 was probably the last month that buyers were able to lock in a mortgage rate in the 3s, before rates jumped at the end of June.

If you look at San Diego’s 2014 monthly sales, they look consistent and remarkably strong considering that prices have been going up every month.  Here are the MLS counts for all property types in the county:

Jan = 2,116

Feb = 2,271

Mar = 2,778

Apr = 3,321

May = 3,255

Jun = 3,182

Jul = 3,043

Aug = 2,806

If sales fall off the next few months, the blame will be on the holidays, and sellers will expect a vibrant selling season again next spring.

Posted by on Sep 12, 2014 in Sales and Price Check | 8 comments