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jim@jimklinge.com


Journal

L.A. Rock Scene

Daytrip is a great supporter of this blog, regularly sending in articles to assist with producing content here.  But this video is one of his best contributions ever for those of us who are fans of the L.A. rock scene – thank you Daytrip!

You can watch a few minutes, and come back a few days later and the youtube picks up where you left off:

Posted by on Aug 27, 2014 in Jim's Take on the Market | 0 comments

San Diego is #5 in U.S.A.

From the latimes.com:

http://www.latimes.com/business/realestate/la-fi-orange-county-3rd-priciest-market-20140812-story.html

An excerpt:

Orange County is the third-most-expensive housing market in the country, with two other chunks of the Southland ranking in the top 10.

That’s according to a new report out Tuesday from the National Assn. of Realtors, which measured the median price of homes sold in the second quarter. Orange County’s median — the point at which half of homes sold for more and half for less — hit $691,900 in the quarter, trailing only the San Jose and San Francisco metro areas.

The San Diego area ranked fifth at $504,200 and metro Los Angeles — Los Angeles County — ranked ninth at $420,300. Even the relatively inexpensive Inland Empire sat 21st — pricier than Miami; Austin, Texas; or Chicago — with a median of $274,600.

http://www.latimes.com/business/realestate/la-fi-orange-county-3rd-priciest-market-20140812-story.html

Posted by on Aug 27, 2014 in Sales and Price Check | 0 comments

Doomer Report

This guy only sees negative in the real estate world.  He called me once trying to get me to bash the market, and when I refused, he hung up.  Even today he is still ranting:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-house-market-is-falling-apart-2014-08-26

Real estate analyst Keith Jurow, author of the Capital Preservation Real Estate Report, is warning that the real estate market is not as strong as it seems.

Says Jurow: “I never bought into the idea that we had a recovery at all.” His research leads him to conclude that home prices will be heading lower.

His research? Because the Case-Shiller Index is still rising, just not as fast – that means prices will be heading lower?  There are plenty of reasons you could use to justify the doomer position (wars, unemployment, unaffordability, earthquakes, etc.), but smaller increases are a weak excuse.

He also thinks we will still have a surge of foreclosed properties to come, just because their are so many people delinquent.  But once you miss a few payments and ruin your credit, the delinquent homeowners might as well ride it out until they get the boot.

How are the San Diego foreclosures?

Some said they dropped off because of the Homeowners Bill of Rights, which was released two years ago and became law on January 1, 2013.   The bansk have had plenty of time to adjust – here’s how they are doing:

San Diego County Filings

San Diego County Trustee-Sale Results

It’s hard to believe that people just go back to making their payments, whether they get a loan mod or not.  The banks will wait until they can make money by foreclosing, which around the coastal markets, should be after another 10% appreciation or so.  Until then, why foreclose and lose money?

Posted by on Aug 27, 2014 in Foreclosures, Foreclosures/REOs, Jim's Take on the Market, No-Foreclosure as Banking Policy | 10 comments

Make the Deal

kalpati

Forget the price point, it’s the deal-making that is interesting about this case.  The sellers of this home just acquired it last week as part of a home swap, and before closing I had arranged for vendors to do a quick tune-up.  We hit the ground running, and $10,000 worth of new carpet, paint, and lighting got it ready for market in a week.

It listed for $398,000 on Saturday, and yesterday the model match across the street (listed for $392,000) went pending. It came back on market today, and they raised their price to the range $395,000-$405,000.

What do we do?

Lower our price to $389,000 – we want to be the next one to sell:

Posted by on Aug 26, 2014 in Bubbleinfo TV, Listing Agent Practices, Why You Should List With Jim | 1 comment

“Trend Towards Rentership”

Hat tip to GW for sending in this discussion on today’s market conditions:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/housing-market-is-stuck-in-downard-spiral–shari-olefson-155251001.html

An excerpt:

Home prices appear to be moderating but that’s good news says Shari Olefson, CEO of The Carnegie Group. “Those big increases that we saw last year were not sustainable and in general we’re still seeing an upward trend when you look at the big picture,” she says.

Still, it’s not all roses for Olefson. “What I wasn’t happy with are some of the trends we’re seeing in new construction,” she notes.

New homes sales fell by 2.4% from June to July, yet July’s new homes sales were up 12.3% from the previous year. “New construction appears to be up significantly from last year but when you dig beneath the surface what’s up are multifamily homes,” says Olefson. “Single family homes are up by just 1% which defies logic because we’ve had over 3 million single family units that have been converted to residential rentals.”

Some believe that these numbers mean that housing is approaching normal levels, but Olefson disagrees. She sees more potential buyers turning into renters and believes there’s a lack of suitable housing and loan products for what people can afford now.

Posted by on Aug 26, 2014 in Market Conditions | 4 comments

Thank You Ben!

Ben at HousingTracker has called it quits:

Update 8/25/2014: It’s been 9 years since I started HousingTracker as a personal project to try to gain insight into rapidly changing home prices during the housing bubble. There wasn’t nearly as much data available then as there is now, and I was happy to make a very small contribution towards improving that situation. In 2014 there is a lot more data available and most of that data is better than what I can provide — especially considering recent challenges of maintaining data quality. As such, I’ve decided to end the HousingTracker project.

If you’re looking for asking price and inventory data, my favorite source is Zillow’s data page specifically the For-sale inventory (raw) csv and the Median list price csv. It’s not quite as timely as HousingTracker data, but it has broader coverage and is likely more accurate.

Thanks for visiting!
Ben

Unfortunately the little guys – those who have the best local insights – are giving way to the corporate behemoths.  Others who have stopped their personal internet projects include OC Renter, Schahrzad, and Kris Berg, and I haven’t seen any new ones taking their place.

It seems inevitable that we will led around by the economists and corporate CEOs, and getting fed those vague national and statewide statistics that don’t help much at the local level.  If anyone is thinking of starting a local blog, now would be a great time!

Here’s the latest from Ben regarding the San Diego market:

http://www.deptofnumbers.com/asking-prices/california/san-diego/

SDhousingtracker

Posted by on Aug 26, 2014 in Local Flavor | 5 comments

SD Case-Shiller, June 2014

case shiller june 2014

The increases in the local Case-Shiller index have slowed, and we’re no longer in that sexy 1% to 3% per month frenzy era of 2013.  But it’s still increasing monthly – it would take a few negative readings to get anyone’s attention now.

P.S. Today’s reading is 41% higher than it was in April, 2009 (203.32 vs. 144.43).

These are the Case-Shiller Index NSA changes below for San Diego:

Month
M-O-M
Y-O-Y
Jan ’13
-1.0%
+9.8%
Feb ’13
+1.0%
+10.2%
March ’13
+2.0%
+12.1%
April ’13
+2.8%
+14.7%
May ’13
+3.2%
+17.3%
June ’13
+2.8%
+19.3%
July ’13
+2.0%
+20.4%
August ’13
+1.8%
+21.5%
September ’13
+0.9%
+20.9%
October ’13
+0.3%
+19.7%
November ’13
+0.0%
+18.7%
December ’13
-0.1%
+18.0%
January ’14
+0.6%
+19.4%
February ’14
+1.0%
+19.9%
March ’14
+1.3%
+18.9%
April ’14
+0.8%
+15.3%
May ’14
+0.5%
+12.4%
June ’14
+0.68%
+10.2%

Posted by on Aug 26, 2014 in Same-House Sales | 2 comments

What’s Holding Back Buyers

This guy says there are 5-6 million people who were or could be homeowners but are on the sidelines – the buy vs. rent equation isn’t compelling enough.

She says these potential buyers don’t have the down payment and don’t know about FHA, but she might be guessing.  Though FHA is very expensive and caps out at $546,250, it’s definitely a viable option in San Diego County.  Of the 14,129 house sales this year, 1,459 of them (10%) have been financed via FHA.

Remember when we said that the market would be seasoned when we see more FHA and VA purchases…..the bidding wars would have died down, and buyers with more horsepower have passed on those deals?  Here are the percentages of FHA+VA loans used to purchase SD houses:

2011 = 35%

2012 = 31%

2013 = 25% (FHA got tougher in June, 2013)

2014 = 25%

There are more VA loans than FHA this year (59% vs 41%).

Posted by on Aug 25, 2014 in Interest Rates/Loan Limits, Jim's Take on the Market, Market Conditions, Mortgage News | 3 comments

Stepped-Up Tax Basis

The other day, I used the term ‘die correctly’, which refers to those who hold properties until death, allowing those who inherit to step up the tax basis.

From wiki:

Under IRC § 1014(a) the general rule applied to property a beneficiary receives from a benefactor is that the beneficiary’s tax basis equals the fair market value of the property at the time the decedent dies. For example, Decedent owns a home they originally purchased for $35,000. Their tax basis in the home is equal to its cost, $35,000, assuming no adjustments under IRC § 1016. On the day Decedent dies, the fair market value of the home is $200,000. If Decedent bequeaths the home to Beneficiary, Beneficiary’s basis in the home will be the fair market value, $200,000.

In contrast, had Decedent given the home to Beneficiary before their death, Beneficiary would receive a carryover basis, which would be equal to the decedent’s adjusted basis in the home, $35,000.

Because of this provision, any appreciation of the affected property that occurred during the decedent’s lifetime will never be taxed. Thus, this provision provides an incentive for taxpayers to retain appreciated property until death.

As the baby boomer generation begins to expire, we should see more inventory – especially rental properties.  Any houses within a few miles of the coast are already in record territory, price-wise, and the beneficiaries would be smart to liquidate at least some of the properties while they can get top dollar.

The ones to sell would be the older homes needing more work, and/or those in inferior locations.  Keep the best, and sell the rest!

If you are thinking of selling, give me a call!

Posted by on Aug 25, 2014 in Market Conditions, Shadow Inventory, Why You Should List With Jim | 17 comments

Inventory Watch – End of Summer

Usually there is a bit of a lull as school gets started again, and then a surge before the holiday season kicks in. The cost-per-sf in the fourth category is skewed because the MLS only allows 400 data points to be reviewed – the most expensive listings are being left out:

The UNDER-$800,000 Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
DOM
Avg SF
November 25
95
$376/sf
47
1,988sf
December 2
79
$371/sf
50
2,047sf
December 9
72
$383/sf
43
1,954sf
December 16
81
$378/sf
42
1,948sf
December 23
77
$374/sf
49
1,937sf
December 30
76
$373/sf
51
1,950sf
January 6
74
$370/sf
49
1,995sf
January 13
71
$381/sf
44
1,921sf
January 20
72
$384/sf
41
1,877sf
January 27
75
$399/sf
40
1,891sf
February 3
78
$409/sf
41
1,876sf
February 10
82
$395/sf
38
1,927sf
February 17
85
$387/sf
35
1,929sf
February 24
90
$383/sf
37
2,008sf
March 3
82
$397/sf
39
1,942sf
March 10
88
$377/sf
37
2,008sf
March 17
89
$366/sf
34
2,038sf
March 24
79
$369/sf
34
2,031sf
March 31
78
$367/sf
39
2,069sf
April 7
87
$373/sf
32
2,054sf
April 14
97
$380/sf
31
2,000sf
April 21
87
$377/sf
32
2,062sf
April 28
107
$379/sf
29
2,044sf
May 5
114
$376/sf
27
2,046sf
May 12
108
$385/sf
31
2,012sf
May 19
107
$385/sf
0
0sf
May 26
105
$375/sf
34
0sf
Jun 2
102
$376/sf
36
0sf
Jun 9
102
$377/sf
37
0sf
Jun 16
104
$369/sf
35
0sf
Jun 23
111
$380/sf
34
0sf
Jun 30
119
$376/sf
36
0sf
Jul 7
122
$387/sf
36
0sf
Jul 14
127
$388/sf
34
0sf
Jul 21
135
$381/sf
36
0sf
Jul 28
144
$382/sf
37
0sf
Aug 4
148
$379/sf
39
0sf
Aug 11
135
$375/sf
42
0sf
Aug 25
135
$374/sf
43
0sf


The $800,000 – $1,400,000 Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
DOM
Avg SF
November 25
245
$448/sf
61
2,856sf
December 2
239
$448/sf
64
2,851sf
December 9
226
$461/sf
65
2,812sf
December 16
211
$464/sf
66
2,794sf
December 23
197
$453/sf
73
2,813sf
December 30
173
$450/sf
78
2,821sf
January 6
170
$470/sf
65
2,757sf
January 13
168
$463/sf
59
2,764sf
January 20
174
$444/sf
51
2,882sf
January 27
166
$435/sf
52
2,902sf
February 3
165
$441/sf
53
2,857sf
February 10
175
$443/sf
51
2,852sf
February 17
180
$447/sf
50
2,803sf
February 24
188
$438/sf
44
2,846sf
March 3
202
$421/sf
44
2,936sf
March 10
215
$431/sf
41
2,854sf
March 17
223
$421/sf
42
2,918sf
March 24
217
$419/sf
42
2,941sf
March 31
223
$425/sf
44
2,887sf
April 7
224
$428/sf
44
2,881sf
April 14
233
$429/sf
44
2,892sf
April 21
237
$432/sf
44
2,894sf
April 28
240
$430/sf
45
2,848sf
May 5
272
$434/sf
42
2,838sf
May 12
269
$438/sf
42
2,831sf
May 19
275
$436/sf
0
0sf
May 26
276
$429/sf
49
0sf
Jun 2
270
$431/sf
50
0sf
Jun 9
292
$454/sf
52
0sf
Jun 16
299
$443/sf
52
0sf
Jun 23
304
$437/sf
51
0sf
Jun 30
304
$431/sf
53
0sf
Jul 7
307
$423/sf
55
0sf
Jul 14
297
$421/sf
54
0sf
Jul 21
310
$410/sf
53
0sf
Jul 28
329
$411/sf
53
0sf
Aug 4
337
$415/sf
52
0sf
Aug 11
336
$420/sf
51
0sf
Aug 25
318
$428/sf
55
0sf

The $1,400,000 – $2,400,000 Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
DOM
Avg SF
November 25
227
$580/sf
81
3,692sf
December 2
222
$588/sf
85
3,653sf
December 9
219
$586/sf
87
3,636sf
December 16
211
$593/sf
88
3,627sf
December 23
196
$601/sf
94
3,581sf
December 30
190
$597/sf
100
3,591sf
January 6
175
$595/sf
97
3,594sf
January 13
184
$600/sf
92
3,590sf
January 20
187
$589/sf
83
3,663sf
January 27
195
$589/sf
80
3,649sf
February 3
196
$573/sf
78
3,730sf
February 10
205
$583/sf
76
3,687sf
February 17
216
$582/sf
72
3,729sf
February 24
211
$584/sf
77
3,744sf
March 3
221
$585/sf
78
3,761sf
March 10
228
$585/sf
77
3,740sf
March 17
217
$584/sf
75
3,744sf
March 24
231
$584/sf
73
3,742sf
March 31
232
$569/sf
71
3,750sf
April 7
230
$569/sf
71
3,753sf
April 14
233
$564/sf
69
3,748sf
April 21
244
$563/sf
67
3,780sf
April 28
238
$566/sf
66
3,757sf
May 5
247
$571/sf
61
3,746sf
May 12
251
$559/sf
64
3,782sf
May 19
256
$562/sf
0
0sf
May 26
263
$552/sf
69
0sf
Jun 2
261
$561/sf
69
0sf
Jun 9
273
$566/sf
70
0sf
Jun 16
276
$571/sf
70
0sf
Jun 23
289
$581/sf
70
0sf
Jun 30
292
$594/sf
72
0sf
Jul 7
288
$588/sf
74
0sf
Jul 14
290
$590/sf
72
0sf
Jul 21
277
$578/sf
74
0sf
Jul 28
271
$579/sf
71
0sf
Aug 4
269
$586/sf
70
0sf
Aug 11
276
$571/sf
71
0sf
Aug 25
271
$579/sf
81
0sf

The OVER-$2,400,000 Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
DOM
Avg SF
November 25
340
$1,040/sf
159
6,347sf
December 2
330
$1,049/sf
160
6,342sf
December 9
318
$1,057/sf
163
6,392sf
December 16
317
$1,049/sf
163
6,420sf
December 23
302
$1,063/sf
169
6,405sf
December 30
285
$1,074/sf
174
6,460sf
January 6
285
$1,073/sf
171
6,477sf
January 13
295
$1,057/sf
168
6,480sf
January 20
297
$1,050/sf
157
6,537sf
January 27
307
$1,041/sf
152
6,513sf
February 3
297
$1,048/sf
152
6,545sf
February 10
315
$1,024/sf
146
6,519sf
February 17
315
$1,030/sf
148
6,572sf
February 24
314
$1,028/sf
148
6,611sf
March 3
309
$1,004/sf
145
6,628sf
March 10
316
$1,011/sf
141
6,576sf
March 17
329
$999/sf
136
6,557sf
March 24
331
$995/sf
131
6,563sf
March 31
336
$995/sf
131
6,574sf
April 7
345
$988/sf
128
6,477sf
April 14
349
$996/sf
126
6,534sf
April 21
353
$995/sf
124
6,523sf
April 28
366
$980/sf
120
6,543sf
May 5
379
$974/sf
119
6,539sf
May 12
388
$967/sf
118
6,509sf
May 19
390
$1,000/sf
0
0sf
May 26
393
$1,015/sf
122
0sf
Jun 2
395
$1,007/sf
124
0sf
Jun 9
398
$1,010/sf
125
0sf
Jun 16
397
$1,016/sf
130
0sf
Jun 23
417
$911/sf
116
0sf
Jun 30
416
$904/sf
120
0sf
Jul 7
411
$912/sf
120
0sf
Jul 14
419
$893/sf
119
0sf
Jul 21
424
$884/sf
119
0sf
Jul 28
423
$882/sf
123
0sf
Aug 4
420
$888/sf
126
0sf
Aug 11
424
$891/sf
127
0sf
Aug 25
427
$878/sf
128
0sf

A very solid stretch of new pendings – the demand is healthy as long as sellers are willing to be reasonable.

Weekly NSDCC New Listings and New Pendings

Week
New Listings
New Pendings
May 30
70
84
June 5
87
64
June 11
77
69
June 17
73
66
June 24
100
69
July 1
86
64
July 8
81
53
July 15
106
54
July 22
105
89
July 29
71
74
Aug 5
105
64
Aug 12
77
61
Aug 19
88
73
Aug 26
87
77
Sep 2
76
55
Sep 9
85
58
Sep 16
102
61
Sep 23
84
54
Sep 30
73
80
Oct 7
80
61
Oct 14
78
53
Oct 21
70
63
Oct 28
54
40
Nov 4
63
53
Nov 11
49
64
Nov 18
52
44
Nov 25
48
40
Dec 2
25
34
Dec 9
45
47
Dec 16
56
46
Dec 23
21
39
Dec 30
14
23
Jan 6
63
25
Jan 13
75
44
Jan 20
98
51
Jan 27
71
56
Feb 3
74
63
Feb 10
95
59
Feb 17
81
76
Feb 24
80
70
Mar 3
88
71
Mar 10
98
54
Mar 17
87
65
Mar 24
89
76
Mar 31
77
57
April 7
98
61
April 14
108
72
April 21
87
62
April 28
122
73
May 5
144
67
May 12
96
85
May 19
87
61
May 26
97
72
Jun 2
90
59
Jun 9
108
52
Jun 16
103
65
Jun 23
131
62
Jun 30
85
70
July 7
83
59
July 14
100
62
July 21
112
75
July 28
113
62
Aug 4
84
48
Aug 11
89
64
Aug 18
79
57
Aug 25
68
57

Posted by on Aug 25, 2014 in Inventory | 0 comments