Here’s an update on the new homes being built at the end of the road in Olivenhain from $1,900,000 and up:
After using Zillow for years, consumers probably start to cozy up to the zestimates, just out of familiarity and convenience.
Those who are new to the game – and believe Zillow to be an authority – are going to think the zestimate is a neutral opinion of actual value. But the zestimate is simply based on the list price, and not some fancy algorithm.
Ryan at the sacramentoappraisalblog.com ran a post that showed how a zestimate fluctuated during the time the house was on the market.
The zestimate nearly matched the list price, then went down with the first price reduction. Then once it sold, it really went nuts.
Click here for the whole story:
Here’s one of my all-time favorite houses in Olde Carlsbad. For those who want a non-tract custom home on a big lot with no HOA, you should check it out!Link to Listing
I did help the owners purchase the home, but they didn’t list with me – they listed with their sister. It happens a lot – we estimate that at least 10% of our clients have close family members become agents, or the clients themselves become realtors.
Our local associations of realtors are done suing each other, and as of today, those of us in the NSDCAR are officially using the nearly-statewide CRMLS. We are going to share the other local option, SDMLS, for the next two years so consumers probably won’t notice any difference on the portals.
What does it mean?
It means Jim the Realtor is going state-wide!
Well, almost – the map above shows the areas of coverage. While Temecula and the OC would be obvious markets that are closer to home, it’s not out of the question that I can sell homes anywhere.
When my Dad died in 2010, I sold my parents’ home in Concord for top dollar, and the long-timers here might remember my grandparents’ house.
My sister had just become a realtor in the Bay Area when it came time to sell the family homestead. It was a custom home my grandparents had bought in the 1940s, and there had not been much upkeep or improvements:
Plus, like with many families, there was an overload of sentimental value. It’s where we had most of the holiday gatherings, and there’s even a photo somewhere of me as a toddler sitting on Earl Warren’s lap in the living room!
My Mom and sister were convinced that it would sell for over $2,000,000.
I told them to send me the comps, and once reviewed, I said it was going to sell for $1,500,000. They were outraged and hurt, and accused me of knowing nothing about the local market – how could I possibly offer any assistance?
Here’s how it turned out:
I don’t think it’s feasible to be able to help homebuyers in other areas, but I can offer my full compliment of sales skills to sellers – contact me and we can discuss. I already have a listing coming in Murrieta, and another possible one in the OC so we’ll see how it goes. Tract houses and condos are a little easier to evaluate, but as you saw with my grandparents’ house, I can get pretty close on the custom estates too.
One other change with the CRMLS:
They have the same policy as Sandicor did about requiring that listings are inputted onto the system within 48 hours – but CRMLS only counts business days, not calendar days. So listings taken on Thursday don’t have to be inputted until Monday. Of course, agents are still welcome to use the SELM form to exclude the listing for days or weeks if they so desire.
Update on Wednesday morning:
Rich didn’t sound any alarms in his most-recent post, and he is among the most neutral observers – he’s not in a real-estate-related profession. He said:
So, there’s nothing extraordinary or panic-worthy here… the market is a good amount weaker than it was in recent times, but that’s coming from a very hot market, so things are still very much in the realm of normalcy at this time.
You can see why. The inventory remains relatively low, and it wouldn’t take much for it to plunge again. Rich made the point that with both rates and prices higher, we may have reached the tipping point, but if one or both were to relax a bit, the current inventory would thin out.
You can see in the graph above that the inventory peaked in the middle of the year previously, when in 2018 it’s kept growing. We may just have more sellers waiting longer into the year before cancelling their listing for the holidays.
This graph doesn’t trigger any alarms either:
More factors that will create more Stagnant City, instead of a downturn:
- The county population has grown by roughly 300,000 people already this decade, and is expected to grow by another 600,000 people by 2050. Home building is so anemic that we will be short 150,000 homes by then!
- The move-up market is comatose. Prices have gone up so fast that it is miracle work trying to make sense of moving up – you really have to have a good reason, and loads of money. My rule-of-thumb is still in effect – you need to spend 50% more than the price of your old home to have it work (if you sell your a million, you can’t stay in the same area and spend $1.1 million – there isn’t enough additional benefit – maybe an extra bedroom?). There is too big of a delta between the purchase prices for someone who bought at $800,000 and can sell now for $1,000,000 who then needs to spend $1,500,000 to get enough benefit.
- Virtually nobody knows different market conditions than what we’ve had this decade. Anybody who got into this in the last nine years has only known a seller’s market, and the rest of us are too old to remember!
- Buyers don’t lowball, instead, they just walk away – which doesn’t give overly-optimistic sellers any feedback on price. They just keep waiting for that magical nuclear family with 2.2 kids to show up tomorrow.
- The trend for agents to be on salary or lower commissions means they aren’t going to work too hard – and won’t employ the expertise to create solutions.
- There are just enough sales to keep everybody optimistic!
The total number of NSDCC listings are steady, in spite of more ‘re-freshing’ than ever:
As long as fewer people want to sell, expect more of the same.
Initially this had a lot of promise being the HGTV winner and being oceanfront for only $15 million, but as the film rolls on, you realize the high density – it is practically like a condo. It might be better enjoyed with the volume down:
Our local market is still kicking – the number of pendings went up this week (+1%), and we had more new listings than we’ve had in a month (91).
But it’s a market for the affluent – literally 55% of the houses for sale between La Jolla and Carlsbad are listed for more than $2,000,000!
How did your area do last month, and for the first eight months of the year? It would be sufficient to just keep close to 2017, which was a good year for sales:
|Town or Area|
Total NSDCC sales for the first eight months are down 8%, which isn’t the end of the world. The median sales price is up, and the average cost-per-sf is down:
NSDCC median sales price, August, 2017: $1,245,000
NSDCC median sales price, August, 2018: $1,325,000
NSDCC average $$/sf, August, 2017: $549/sf
NSDCC average $$/sf, August, 2018: $534/sf
You would think that the high-dollar areas might be showing some struggle, but in August, both La Jolla and Rancho Santa Fe had great months.
In May, 2018, there were 13 sales in the 92067!
A fridge with internet, cameras and microphones! Thanks daytrip: