Will the Olympics be coming to San Diego?
From the NAHB:
Preliminary data provided to NAHB by the Census Bureau on the characteristics of homes started in 2013 show the trend toward larger homes continued unabated last year, as did the share of new homes with 4+ bedrooms, 3+ full baths, 2-stories, or 3-car garages.
The average size of new homes started in 2013 was 2,679 square feet, about 150 square feet larger than in 2012 and the fourth consecutive annual increase since bottoming out at 2,362 square feet in 2009.
New homes started in 2013 were also more likely to have additional features: nearly half, 48%, had 4 or more bedrooms; 35% had 3 or more full bathrooms; 22% had a garage for at least 3 cars; and 60% were 2-stories.
The share of new homes started with these features has been increasing consistently for 3 or 4 years, and the most obvious question is “why?” Why are homes getting this BIG?
To get an answer, just take a look at WHO is buying new homes?
The typical new home buyer in recent years has been someone with strong credit scores and high levels of income. To the first point, the graph below shows how the average credit rating of all US consumers has remained rather flat over the last few years (blue line), while the average credit rating of mortgage borrowers (red line) took a dramatic jump after 2007. By 2013, the gap between the two measures was 58 points, compared to 33 points in the early 2000s.
To the second point, the graph below shows the rising trend in new home buyers’ income in recent years.
In 2005, the median income of new home buyers was $91,768. By 2011, it had increased by more than 17% to $107,607. It is not too surprising, therefore, to see home size and features continuing to trend upward, given that those buying new homes are precisely the kind of buyers who generally purchase large, feature-loaded homes.
These guys can probably claim to have played every venue in the state, including CSU Fullerton around 1982. From wiki:
The Untouchables are a soul/mod revival band from the Silver Lake, Los Angeles, California area. Described by original lead singer Kevin Long as “mods who played ska music,” The Untouchables are credited with being America’s first ska band.
They formed in 1981 as part of the embryonic L.A. mod revival, after being inspired by the ska revival/punk rock band The Boxboys. Since some couldn’t play instruments, they either hastily learned, or became vocalists.
After a shaky start playing at parties, the integrated septet were eventually booked at the O.N. Klub (known as the On to regulars). The band had guaranteed the club that they would pack the venue, and they did not disappoint. In middle of that year, they released their first (ska-styled) 7″ single, copies of which were snapped up by local mods. Late in 1982, the band began a stint as the house band at the Roxy Theatre.
Their second single, “The General,” became a minor local hit, despite poor distribution. The band performed “The General” in the 1984 comedy The Party Animal, and they appeared as a scooter gang in the movie Repo Man. In early 1984, they were signed to Stiff Records. Concerts with The B-52′s, Black Uhuru, Bow Wow Wow, Red Hot Chili Peppers, Fishbone, No Doubt and X all over California gave the group a disparate following of whites, blacks, mods, punks, surfers and rockabilly fans, with the local performances drawing up to 1,500 people. The band also appeared in the 1984 film Surf II, performing “Dance Beat”, and 1987′s No Man’s Land, performing “What’s Gone Wrong”.
Hat tip to Booty Juice! From calcoastnews.com:
Timothy William Barnes, 37, pleaded guilty Monday to committing bank fraud. Barnes, a San Francisco resident, owned and operated Apex Properties Real Estate Brokerage in San Luis Obispo. Barnes is accused of orchestrating a property-flipping scheme in San Luis Obispo, Paso Robles, Pismo Beach and other Central Coast cities that netted him more than $500,000 in profits between January 2010 and September 2012.
Barnes understated the value of homes in documents he submitted to banks that he was asking to approve short sales. He then sold the houses at higher prices. Often Barnes concealed higher offers he had already received and simultaneously negotiated the short sale and resale of the houses.
Short sales can occur when the value of a property drops below the amount of money owed on the mortgage. In that instance, a bank can agree to a short sale, in which it accepts less than the total owed on the loan.
The FBI and the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s Office of Inspector General investigated the Barnes’s property-flipping scheme. FBI agents raided his downtown San Luis Obispo office in September 2012.
Barnes is scheduled for sentencing on June 16. He faces a maximum of 30 years in federal prison.
If N.A.R., realtor.com, and/or other industry leaders don’t get out in front of the changing market, then those with the big bucks will put an attractive spin on their model and try to determine our future. From techcrunch.com:
Fresh off its public debut last week, Google Capital is putting more money to work this week with the announcement of a $50 million investment in real estate marketplace Auction.com. The valuation of the company post-money is $1.2 billion, and a representative from Google Capital will join the company’s Board of directors and another will take a board observer position.
Similar to other real estate marketplaces, Auction.com connects buyers and sellers of real estate. And the company has sold $26 billion of property since inception. What differentiates Auction.com is that the real estate transaction actually happens online. It’s been described as an “eBay for real estate.” Financing options remain the same as in the offline world (it happens via a bank). Similar to eBay, the highest bidder wins on these auctions.
Launched in 2008, Auction.com only started expanding in Silicon Valley last year, with the company’s headquarters in Southern California. And while Auction.com has raised money from private equity, it hasn’t used much of its unvested capital and is profitable.
Of course, you can draw comparisons to other real estate marketplaces like Zillow or Trulia. As Jake Seid, president of Auction.com, explained in an interview, “Trip Advisor is to Priceline as Zillow is to Auction.com.” He sees sites like Zillow as complimetary.
Read full article here:
If not, this might push you closer to believing.
Here is the mix of NSDCC detached listings this year:
REO listing agents, flippers, and short-sale scammers have to be scrambling. Keep your head down!
There are around 1,500 videos here that followed the market down. It was quite a ride for all of us, including fans from the FHFA to Jim Grant.
But when the market started to turn, the blog had to change with it.
It has not been easy. I’ve wanted to entertain the long-time readers by exposing more of the constant insanity and shenanigans, mostly to demonstrate the potential pitfalls.
But it can come off as negative and bitter, and though this business is full of both, I’d rather present a friendlier package.
My goal has been to provide relevant information that causes people to say – ‘Hey, Jim could help me buy or sell a house, I’m going to call him’.
I’m not sure this video represents – but hang around a while longer to see if I can pull it off:
The average pricing for February increased 21% since last year, yet remarkably, sales haven’t dropped off much – what other industry could be so price insensitive?
It looks like we’ve been on a comfortable plateau over the last six months:
We didn’t see the step-up from the $430-$440/sf range until mortgage rates popped last summer. Have we found the happy price-point for mortgage rates in the low-to-mid 4%s, or just levitating?
Having over eight years’ worth of blog posts means all types of kooky things happen regularly – usually regarding comments left on old stories.
Yesterday’s comment-du-jour went back to June, 2011, which caused me to read a few other comments of the day.
Reader LM left this:
Bernanke live press conf: We have told the banks to handle their REOs…..long pause………..in an economy-supportive way.
Oops. We he was GOING to say was “we have told the banks not to flood the market with REOs.”
Here is the link to the actual speech, with Bernanke’s quote on the last page:
Let’s look back at the foreclosure history beginning in 2011. Sure enough, LM called it – foreclosures in California dropped off the table:
Thanks Uncle Ben – and rots of ruck to you!
The $800,000 – $1,400,000 market has been red hot as of late. But its inventory count grew 7% this week, and pricing and square footage also faltered. We’ll call it noise for now, and check again next week:
North SD County’s Coastal Region (La Jolla-to-Carlsbad)
The UNDER-$800,000 Market:
The $800,000 – $1,400,000 Market:
The $1,400,000 – $2,400,000 Market:
The OVER-$2,400,000 Market:
Virtually-identical counts of new actives and new pendings for three weeks in a row – steady as she goes! We’ll consider an active/pending ratio of 1:1 or lower to be full-frenzy level for these weekly counts or overall. Today’s overall count is 789:382, or 2.07:1 – which is a healthy mix:
Weekly NSDCC New Listings and New Pendings