Traditional real estate being manipulated by billionaires. Hat tip to Anna for sending this in!
The digital renderings of North Bayshore, a massive proposed development in Mountain View, California, are crowded with glistening buildings and cheerful, animated pedestrians. There’s a lot to show off, including 7,000 new homes, three distinct neighborhoods, and nearly 300,000 square feet of retail and community space. Notably, though, the gleaming images don’t bear any hints of the company behind the whole endeavor: Google.
Companies like Google and Facebook’s parent, Meta, conquered the digital realm a long time ago, setting the ground rules for how we search, interact, and shop online. Not content to stop there, however, these firms are now making huge bids to expand their reach. They want to be landlords, too.
We won’t see a hundred new listings hit the market in one day….it will be two here, three there, four over here, etc. and pretty soon the buyers will think about stepping back to see where it might go.
If rates can slip into the high-5s by next month, the early-2024 market will be on fire….
Survey-based rate indices haven’t yet had time to account for the massive drop in mortgage rates this week, but rest assured, it was special. That’s no surprise if you saw our coverage yesterday, which pointed out that it was the biggest drop in a 45 day window that we’ve ever measured.
When rates drop that much, that quickly, there’s always some risk that we’ll see a corrective bounce. Sometimes such corrections only erase a small amount of the improvement over a day or two. Other times they can be the start of weeks of gradual increases. Either way, we usually have some indication of that resistance within a few days of the final crescendo.
This time, however, the mortgage rate drop is sticking the landing. Wednesday and Thursday were the big movement days and now today has seen almost no movement at all. The average lender is effectively right in line with yesterday afternoon’s latest levels.
While this turn of events can’t predict the future, it is a more reassuring set-up for the days and weeks ahead. Speaking of weeks, we probably won’t know what the next leg of this journey truly looks like until the 2nd week of January after the next Consumer Price Index (CPI) comes out.
The big difference between last year and now is that the 2023 pricing has been on a slow steady climb, instead of the tumult caused last year by the sudden upward shift in mortgage rates.
San Diego is leading all the higher-end luxury markets for YTD pricing!
Another comparison where it counts – on the higher-end, where active (unsold) listings are sure to pile up quickly in a soft market. But not yet, and if we’ve made it through this stretch, then the future market with lower rates should survive ok too:
Yesterday, Jay Powell shocked the world by declaring three rate cuts in 2024! It was Fed speak of the most unusual order – open and transparent, instead of the opaque mumbling of previous chairmen.
The predictions are for rate cuts early in 2024 too. The CNBC survey showed a 90% probability of a rate cut at the Fed’s March meeting, and 100% chance at the May meeting. This Fedwatch Tool below thinks they will all be in the first half of 2024:
What does it mean for the 2024 Spring Selling Season?
Real estate prognostications are usually wild guesses without any supporting data. But next year looks more predictable than ever – and we’ll be able to track it closely.
Let’s consider how 2023 played out:
In June, I mentioned that 2023 got off to a very fast start, and that March would have the highest sales count of the year – which means buyers and sellers were active in January and February!
We had a mid-summer surge too, and the August sales beat out those in March by a nose.
Because the price points are so much higher these days, every property is a luxury home that appeals to the affluent. It means the homes for sale need to be spruced up more than ever, which takes planning and preparation for weeks and months.
We already know that our team will be listing homes for sale on January 18th and 25th, and there should be many more others doing the same. With the 2023 inventory being so bleak, the pent-up buyers will be noting the lower mortgage rates and be on the prowl early.
We will do our annual January inventory contest to give everyone a feel for how the number of homes for sale is breaking early in 2024. Between the number of January listings and the results of our listings, you’ll have quality data on how the 2024 market is unfolding!
My guess is that there will be 10% more listings in January, and combining that with lower mortgage rates could set off a mini-frenzy!
Pricing was steady this year, and it should bump around by the same +/-5% in 2024. It’s probably not worth it to try to predict your purchase or sale by the price history – it will bounce around just because the metric is flawed.
About 50 years ago, a quartet of L.A. session musicians became so synonymous with the era-defining soft-rock scene — headlined by James Taylor, Carole King, Jackson Browne, Linda Ronstadt, Crosby, Stills & Nash and Fleetwood Mac among others — that they were dubbed the Mellow Mafia.
Danny Kortchmar (guitar), Russ Kunkel (drums), Leland Sklar (bass) and Waddy Wachtel (guitar) made their way to Los Angeles through various sliding doors. By the early ’70s, they frequented the same studios, worked with the same engineers and played the same sessions. Championed by the English producer Peter Asher, the four became in-demand separately and in different configurations for their technical capabilities, inventiveness and gift for bringing live sound to the studio.
In 1971, Kortchmar and Kunkel appeared on King’s bestselling, Grammy-winning “Tapestry” and were joined by Sklar on Taylor’s “Mud Slide Slim and the Blue Horizon.” Two years later, Wachtel played on Stevie Nicks and Lindsey Buckingham’s debut, “Buckingham Nicks,” and Wachtel and Kunkel helped shape Nicks’ 1981 solo debut, “Bella Donna.” All four have joined Ronstadt, Browne and Taylor on tour. And that’s just the tip of the iceberg: Individually and together, they’ve appeared on about 5,000 albums.
A new documentary about the group, “The Immediate Family,” will premiere Tuesday at Laemmle NoHo and debut in theaters and on streaming platforms Friday. Directed by Denny Tedesco (who made “The Wrecking Crew!,” about an earlier generation of renowned session musicians), the film chronicles the foursome’s decades-long work with musical icons through original interviews and archival footage. It’s named after the group’s current band with fifth member Steve Postell, which is set to release a new album, “Skin in the Game,” in February.
“We’ve been around such amazing people for so long that we’re sort of used to the attention, observing it and being a part of it,” Sklar explains of the film. “But seeing the movie is sort of a strange reality. We realize, ‘Oh my God, this is actually just about us. Wild.’ ”
Rob Dawg noted that the year-over-year comparisons are worth a look, now that the super-frenzy days are over. Sure enough, this month looks a lot like last December!
La Jolla is going strong, Rancho Santa Fe is back to the priced-to-sit program they made famous, and the 3 mid-range areas (in purple) have total actives/pendings of 80/45 compared to 99/44 last year.
All signs are pointing to next year being similar….unless there is a surge of inventory.
I wonder how many realtors can say they have been producing 1-2 real estate YouTube videos per week since 2006? Mine don’t go viral because I try to keep them educational in nature.
It reminds me of the time when two Hollywood big-shots called me to discuss a TV show. They wanted to send writers down to fabricate some entertaining story lines. But when I told them I was only interested in keeping it educational, they said they would get back to me.
I’m still waiting for their call!
Thanks for watching – I appreciate you being here!
Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google.
We sold a home with Jim and Donna and from beginning to end they were consummate professionals. Their initial walk through the property resulted in a list of items to be repaired or updated. They supplied a list of vendors and job quotes to do the repairs and updates. We originally wanted to sell ‘as is’ and just get it over with. They gave us a selling price for ‘as is’ and options for doing a few updates/repairs to doing it all with the selling price for each option. We agreed to do all they suggested and we sold for the exact price they predicted. For every dollar spent we got back more than $2 back in the selling price. And they got that price in a rising interest rate environment! Donna and Jim are extremely detailed and guide you through ever aspect of the sale. There were no surprises thanks to their guidance. We couldn’t be more pleased with their representation.
Thank you Donna and Jim,
Jerry and Mary
Heather Quejada
March 27, 2025
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We have known Jim & Donna Klinge for over a dozen years, having met them in Carlsbad where our children went to the same school. As long time North County residents, it was a no- brainer for us to have the Klinges be our eyes and ears for San Diego real estate in general and North County in particular. As my military career caused our family to move all over the country and overseas to Asia, Europe and the Pacific, we trusted Jim and Donna to help keep our house in Carlsbad rented with reliable and respectful tenants for over 10 years.
Naturally, when the time came to sell our beloved Carlsbad home to pursue a rural lifestyle in retirement out of California, we could think of no better team to represent us than Jim and Donna. They immediately went to work to update our house built in 2004 to current-day standards and trends — in 2 short months they transformed it into a literal modern-day masterpiece. We trusted their judgement implicitly and followed 100% of their recommended changes. When our house finally came on the market, there was a blizzard of serious interest, we had multiple offers by the third day and it sold in just 5 days after a frenzied bidding war for 20% above our asking price! The investment we made in upgrades recommended by Jim and Donna yielded a 4-fold return, in the process setting a new high water mark for a house sold in our community.
In our view, there are no better real estate professionals in all of San Diego than Jim and Donna Klinge. Buying or selling, you must run and beg Jim and Donna Klinge to represent you! Our family will never forget Jim, Donna, and their whole team at Compass — we are forever grateful to them.
Lou F
March 27, 2025
Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google.
WeI had the pleasure of working with Klinge Realty Group to sell our home in Carmel Valley, and I cannot recommend them highly enough!
Jim and Donna demonstrated exceptional professionalism, offering expert guidance on market conditions and pricing strategy, which resulted in a quick and successful sale.
Communication was prompt and we were well-informed throughout the entire process.
For anyone looking for a dedicated and knowledgeable real estate team, look no further!
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William Sams
March 25, 2025
Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google.
Donna and Jim Klinge of Klinge Realty Group have our highest possible recommendation. From Donna and Jim’s first visit to our house through closing their advice and counsel was candid and honest in all dealings. They kept us fully informed throughout the process. The house sold less than three days after listing with a two-week closing. My wife and I have sold several houses during our lives. This was by far the best experience. Klinge Reality is a premium service realtor. You can’t make a better choice for someone to sell your home fast and for top dollar.
Emily Hernandez
December 29, 2024
Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google.
Donna and Jim provided exceptional support and professionalism throughout the entire process. We couldn't have been happier with their efforts. They made our house shine, and thanks to their expertise, it sold above the listing price in the very first weekend! Truly a fantastic experience from start to finish.
Jesus Adrian Sahagun
November 11, 2024
Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google.
This year has been difficult on our family, mainly due to having to sell our home. Thankfully we knew God had a plan for us and working with the Klinge team was a key part of it. It was an obvious decision to work with them again after such an amazing experience when purchasing the same home we needed to sell. The challenge was, how will we do this in so little time with so much going on? Jim and Donna held our hand every step of the way. Whenever an unexpected issue arose they found and provided a solution. Never once did we feel pressured to make a decision and the Klinges were always reassuring after providing the information that the decision was ours to make. Despite the curve balls, they never panicked and exemplified the “can do” attitude, making us feel optimistic and taken care of. Their expertise and professionalism was superb. But of all the reasons to work with the Klinges, the most impactful and valuable is their compassion and genuine care for their clients. We pray that we can one day purchase our forever home and you better believe that Jim and Donna will be representing us - as long as they will have us of course. Thank you again Klinge team! Your execution, experience, and care are unmatched.
SABIHA PASHA
July 23, 2024
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Jim and Donna were fantastic! Jim understanding my needs, recommending potential places, pointing out the pros and cons of each property was invaluable. Then when the offer was accepted Donna’s organized guidance through the inspections, paperwork etc made the whole process seem effortless.
So grateful that I had them on my side!
Anu Koberg
July 13, 2024
Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google.
We first found Jim through his blog at bubbleinfo.com, which really showcased his knowledge of SoCal real estate. Since then we've done three transactions with Jim and Donna, and they are an incredible full service agency, with Jim's deep market insight and Donna's deft contract and project management. We trust them implicitly in their analysis and strategy, which is based on years of experience. They're always available and on top of things, and we strongly recommend them to anyone.
Bjorn Isachsen
July 10, 2024
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The Good
The Klinge Realty Group operates like a finely tuned machine, with a very personal touch. We contacted them on a Sunday and they were talking to us about our family and our needs on our living room couch the following day. They carefully listened to us and worked with us to identify the best and quickest path to listing within 2 weeks to take advantage of the low inventory conditions in our South Carlsbad neighborhood. They knew our tract specifically and had many previous sales there over the years - they came prepared with a thorough analysis of comparative sales and recommended a pricing strategy that they felt confident would yield offers the first weekend on the market.
The Great
Over the next two weeks Donna coordinated a range of vendors who she knew from experience could get the preparation to list work we needed done on time and with high quality. Our light tune-up involved excellent experiences with their stagers, landscapers, contractors, electricians, and plumbers. Throughout this period Donna's daily communication was clear, concise, and responsive. Any time we had questions Donna picked up the phone or texted immediately - but almost always, she answered our questions before we even knew we had them.
The Outstanding
We had a tricky situation with a shared fence that could have delayed our escrow. Donna used superb mediation skills to negotiate the terms of replacement and was personally on site with the fence contractor to make sure everything went smoothly. The fence looks great and escrow closed on time.
The Truly Exceptional
Our house came on the market on a Wednesday and between then and Monday morning Jim was personally at all three open houses. He was in constant communication explaining potential buyer reaction and strength. As he predicted offers began to come in on Saturday and each one was incrementally higher than the last. At the end we had 5 offers, 4 of which were over list, and the final accepted offer was $100,000 over list. In addition to being over list it included rent back terms that met our needs.
The Recommendation
For all of these reasons we would strongly recommend The Klinge Team to anyone wanting to sell in North County Coastal San Diego. I had been reading Jim's bubbleinfo.com blog for 15 years and knew when the time came to sell that he would be our first call. Jim Klinge is not your standard realtor. He is keenly aware of market conditions and sales strategies. And, works his tail off - though not as hard as Donna . At this point he's gone from realtor to friend and I plan to have him over to grill and chill at our new place to talk real estate, but also just about life and raising kids in San Diego. He's more interested in relationships than his sales numbers - and that's why his sales numbers are so high. We have already recommended the Klinge's to some close friends and another successful sale is on deck right around the corner...
Chris Shea
June 21, 2024
Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google.
We recently had the pleasure of working with Jim and Donna from Klinge Realty Group to sell our house, and we couldn't be more satisfied with the experience. From the initial meeting, they listened attentively to our needs and provided invaluable guidance on specific improvements to get our home market ready.
Their responsiveness throughout the entire process was truly impressive. Anytime we had questions or concerns, they were quick to address them, ensuring we felt comfortable and informed every step of the way. What stood out the most was their team and extensive network of tradespeople, which made addressing any necessary repairs or updates seamless and stress-free.
Thanks to their expertise and dedication, our house sold quickly and at a great price. We highly recommend Jim and Donna to anyone looking to buy or sell a home. They are a fantastic team who truly care about their clients and deliver exceptional results.
