“Everything is Hot”

Highlights from the CB CEO:

20% of all homeowners are considering selling in the next 12 months.

40% are thinking of upsizing.

30% want to cash out (probably the downsizers).

30% would move because they can work from home, and 40% to 60% would leave their city or state.

I think we can say that virtually every homeowner has considered selling – all we need is about 10% to 15% to do it over the next two years!

Perma-Squatters

Thanks to the many folks who sent in this article about a seller who stayed in his house after escrow closed. In this raging market, it is customary for listing agents to suggest seller rentbacks as one of the sweeteners to get an offer accepted, and will deliver a nice rental agreement but if the sellers don’t move, what are you going to do? In the more affluent areas, a lawyer’s monthly retainer fee is less than the rent, so the squatter can delay until you pay enough lawyer fees to reach a deal – and it probably won’t include paying the back rent. I know of one landlord who hasn’t received one penny of his $5,000+ rent since covid started!

When Tracie and Myles Albert purchased a beautiful four-bedroom house in Riverside, California they never realized that at the end of escrow the seller would suddenly refuse to give up the keys and leave.

“It’s just draining, emotionally and financially,” says Tracie.  On January 31, 2020, the couple purchased the home. More than a year later, they still haven’t been able get inside their property. Chris Taylor is the Real Estate Agent who sold the house to the Alberts from a man who wanted to sell immediately.

“He needed $560,000 from the sale of his house in two weeks and he called me on a Sunday, so in traditional real estate there’s no way of doing that unless the buyer’s a cash buyer,” says Taylor.

Since the house was free and clear and worth more than $560,000 the Alberts felt it was a great deal.

“It took us scrambling to get everything we had, our life savings put together and a hard money loan on top of it to make that happen,” Myles stated.

During escrow they discovered there was a $30,000 tax lien on the house which slowed things down, but in the end, all parties signed on the dotted line and the sale was completed.

“We own the house, outright. That’s our house and it’s all in a contract, written, legal, done. He’s been paid the money in his account. How could we have no rights to go into our home,” asked Myles.

Taylor says, “It’s genuinely unfathomable to me that we live in a state where something like this is even possible. They closed escrow on this home January 31, 2020.”  The Alberts and Taylor have contacted authorities and tried to get the seller evicted but because of the pandemic, they’ve gotten nowhere.

“They have this case under a COVID tenant situation, of no evictions when it doesn’t fall under that at all. This transaction went through in January 2020 before any of that, it isn’t a renter who was getting thrown out. It’s the guy who collected all of this money,” stated Myles.

Eviction Attorney Dennis Block says, “This year alone, we’ve handled at least 7 maybe 8 cases of this exact type of situation.”

He says people purchasing homes need to be extremely cautious, especially if they notice any red flags during the process. Block says what’s happening to the Alberts could happen to anyone.

“This person is not a tenant, it’s a previous owner who is enjoying the benefits of the money that was transferred to his account but of course doesn’t want to move out of the premises that he no longer owns,” Block stated.

The Alberts filed an unlawful detainer but because of the California eviction moratorium, the case has been stalled. Time is simply passing by and the immaculate house they fell in love with is now becoming an eyesore.

Tracie says, “I tried watering the lawn one time and he came out and ripped my sprinkler lines, ripped all the wires. The Palm trees are dying, everything was beautiful and everything is dying.”

Her frustrated husband says when he contacted law enforcement, they told him, “If you were in Arizona, if you were in Nevada, this wouldn’t be a problem, you would just go take your house back. But in California, like our hands are tied, even though we’re on your side, there’s nothing we can do.”

https://www.foxla.com/news/couple-buys-riverside-dream-home-but-seller-refuses-to-move-out-in-eviction-moratorium-loophole

Inventory Watch – Full Vertigo!

On Friday morning I had a bout with vertigo, which is about the only thing that has sent my head spinning more than this market! Thankfully Richard and Donna are very capable and jumped in to ensure there wasn’t any disruption to the business, for which I am very thankful!

Once the initial shock wore off, it meant I just sat around and rested all weekend, which gave me more time to ponder. This was the equation that I found most shocking:

Year
Number of Listings Between Jan 1 – Feb 28
Number of Those Marked Pending By March 22
2020
706
296
2021
566
408

Home buyers came into 2021 fully prepared to buy a home, and didn’t need the usual warm-up period – they came out firing! The 20% decline in the number of new listings juiced the market further, and now virtually everything is selling.

Higher rates might spoil the party, but they will need to get up near 4% before having real impact. Any surge of inventory will affect the immediate neighborhood, but not do much to the overall feeling that sellers are in full control for the next few months….at least!

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Happy St. Patrick’s Day

Today, everyone’s favorite Irish band premiered its legendary ‘U2 Go Home: Live From Slane’ show at the iconic music venue Slane Castle outside of Dublin, part of their ‘Elevation Tour’, on September 1st, 2001.

Ten days later, 9/11 happened:

00:00 – Intro

01:07 – Elevation

04:50 – Beautiful Day

09:20 – Until The End Of The World

14:40 – New Year’s Day

19:40 – Out Of Control

25:25 – Sunday Bloody Sunday

32:35 – Wake Up Dead Man

34:40 – Stuck In A Moment You Can’t Get Out Of

39:40 – Kite

45:45 – Angel Of Harlem

49:30 – Desire

53:50 – Staring At The Sun

57:50 – All I Want Is You

1:02:30 – Where The Streets Have No Name

1:08:20 – Pride (In The Name Of Love)

1:13:20 – Bullet The Blue Sky

1:20:15 – With Or Without You

1:25:50 – One

1:31:40 – Walk On

Backlog Forming?

Hat tip to Ryan for his excellent job documenting the real estate frenzy underway in the Sacramento area:

http://sacramentoappraisalblog.com/

Susie says the Boise market is on fire, Noodle said that every house in North Phoenix sells in 3-4 days, home prices in Austin are similar to what they are here (according to one buyer) and even Kayla is seeing multiple offers again in Manhattan!

The potential sellers here who want to list their house for sale so they can leave the state have to be concerned about buying their replacement home, if they haven’t bought one yet.

How many will give up and say, “heck, it’s better here anyway”, and pack it in, instead?

Will a surge of supply over the next 3-4 months – when we need it the most – be stymied because of the difficulty with buying a home elsewhere?

As crazy as it is right now, it could get crazier! It probably will!

Multi-Gen Demand

The new NAR report on the characteristics of homebuyers was released today.

Let’s note how many homes were bought to accommodate kids moving back home – or who never left.  Past generations never had to worry about kids moving out when everybody could afford a home.

As the prices go sky high, more kids will be faced with either having to move far away if they want/need to buy an affordable home, or live with their parents for the duration – yikes!

One more variable to add to the Reasons-To-Move theories, and help explain why demand is exploding!

NSDCC Actives & Pendings

Previously we experienced a healthy market when actives outnumbered pendings 2:1. Then as the market heated up, we got used to the 1:1 ratio. Now we have areas where the ratio is more than 1:2!

NSDCC Detached-Home Active and Pending Listings

Town or Area
Zip Code
Actives
Pendings
Cardiff
92007
10
14
NW Carlsbad
92008
15
24
SE Carlsbad
92009
20
48
NE Carlsbad
92010
4
11
SW Carlsbad
92011
4
19
Carmel Valley
92130
25
38
Del Mar
92014
32
25
Encinitas
92024
36
48
La Jolla
92037
95
45
RSF
67+91
87
50
Solana Beach
92075
8
9
NSDCC
All Above
336
331
West RB
92127
24
63
Scripps Ranch
92131
6
25

What can buyers do?

Going inland doesn’t help – the 92127 and 92131 are hotter than ever.

Just go up in price – La Jolla is nice this time of year!

We will re-visit these numbers in the coming months.

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