8 Comments

1. 

   The Old Man on March 18, 2021 at 12:55 pm

   I feel like I’ve watched this movie before though as a much younger man

2. 

   A Little Younger Old Man on March 19, 2021 at 6:47 am

   Dear Old Man. All markets eventually revert to the mean.

3. 

   Josh on March 19, 2021 at 9:02 am

   Not sure I agree with the comment above. What mean are we talking about? The mean growth in 1980? Today? 40 years ago, San Diego was a local market. 20 years ago it was a national market. Today it’s an international market. As a result, the price growth is spiking. Will it slow down or even drop a little at some point? Sure. Will it ever be as affordable as it was a generation ago? NOPE. The law of supply and demand wins over the law of reversion to the mean.

4. 

   Eddie89 on March 19, 2021 at 11:56 am

   As John Maynard Keynes said, “the markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.”

   As long as The Fed keeps pumping out cash, reversions to the mean may take a long, long, long while.

5. 

   The Old man on March 19, 2021 at 4:19 pm

   The passage of extended periods of can blunt that reversion.

   And sometimes markets fundamentally change. All the chatter on next door these days is coming from recent arrivals from the Bay Area looking for dining recommendations.

6. 

   Rob_Dawg on March 21, 2021 at 10:46 am

   Or the mean reverts to the market.

   Personally I believe this is the result of not building what people want. The plandemic accelerated a decades long trend for traditional exurban SFR homes, lots and neighborhoods. No amount of high density infill is going to fix that except to make the neighbors suffer.

7. 

   A Little Younger Old Man on March 21, 2021 at 5:24 pm

   Frenzy = A state or period of uncontrolled excitement.

   We are in a period of “greater fool theory “ until prices revert to the mean trend line.

   Sorry Josh. Not a new normal.
   It may take time to revert, but it always has. By the same token, the San Diego real estate market has never failed to make a new high.

   Very dangerous if you have a short term time horizon or less than 5 years.

8. 

   The Old man on March 22, 2021 at 8:59 pm

   Such irony that this post followed one on U2.

   Uno, dos, tres…quatorce!!