I thought that this would be the week that the surge of new listings would start to appear, but not yet. There have only been 167 new listings this month between La Jolla and Carlsbad, which is about the same pace as last January.
The monthly closed sales are about the same too. There were 102 NSDCC sales last January, and so far there have been 87 closings this month so we should exceed the 2024 count.
Ok – so we’re doing the same or a little better than last year.
The concern?
There have only been 81 new pendings this month.
It means the future closings are going to be light.
It looks like we’ll be lucky to reach 100 sales next month. There are only 109 total pendings today, and probably 20 of those will close this month! Last February, there were 140 closings.
Let’s examine our listing on Nantucket for guidance.
I thought we could get 5-10 offers, and might get bid up 5% to 10% over list. The house looked spectacular and seemed superior to the comp RIGHT NEXT DOOR that was pending with the same list price. The neighbor had a pool, but inside looked very standard.
But we received fewer than five offers and it only got bid up a little.
What happened?
I had 200+ people attend the open houses, so it seemed like everything was going right. But there must have been at least 6-8 people who told me that they were going to make an offer, but then disappeared.
Was it the three-day weekend? I had 200+ people attend.
Was it too early in the season? I had 200+ people attend.
Was it the price? I had 200+ people attend.
No matter how many homes the potential buyers have seen, they had to recognize that this home was highly upgraded, which is hard to find around Carmel Valley where the vast majority of homes for sale are older tract houses – but not old enough to be thoroughly renovated yet. It’s probably the worst time ever for CV shopping because every home not in Pacific Highlands Ranch looks dated now.
We have lookers. They appear to be very cautious and content to wait-and-see.
Will they be buyers? If they are waiting for better pricing, they will be in for a LONG wait. Sellers aren’t going to budge when they have a comp or two to back their case on price.
Buyer-agents are fading away, and this is where we will see the impact. Without having good help, potential buyers will be overly cautious and stay comfortably on the fence. Fewer sales ahead!
It’s common that when the residential resale market feels slower, the participants shrug it off by saying, “It just takes longer to sell these days.” It is a too-quick opinion that masks the real problem, which is:
It’s taking longer for sellers to admit how wrong their price is.
Because the days-on-market is publicly displayed, the buyers are watching it closely as an indicator. What’s worse is that they think the longer a home is on the market, the more wrong the price is!
Consider the graph above, which tracks discounts back to the old days when the DOM counts weren’t as available as they are today. Today, I think those timelines are 2x as fast – or faster!
Today, if a house hasn’t sold in the first two weeks, buyers start thinking the price is wrong.
Conversely, if buyers think the price is decent, they buy the home without waiting.
Here’s a sampling of the three mid-range zip codes in north county’s coastal region:
My main point?
Conveniently, the opinion that “It just takes longer to sell these days” has been true when prices are rising. Eventually, the market catches up and the over-priced turkey will eventually look like a deal if you wait long enough – butonly when prices are rising.
When prices go flat – like they are today – then the market doesn’t come to save you. Instead, it undercuts the OPTs, leaving them high and dry. It is especially true when there is a surge of new listings that makes it even more obvious.
Yesterday, I mentioned to a past client in CV that I sold Nantucket for over list after the first weekend, and he said, “Incredible! We have houses in our area sitting on the market for months with zero action”.
In Spring, 2025, listing agents will be asking their sellers; “do you mind taking a little less than the actives?”
Welcome to Flat City, with OPTs being ignored and causing buyers to be suspicious of everyone’s price.
Are you looking for the ultimate golf estate? This custom masterpiece has 235ft of frontage on the signature 18th hole of the prestigious members-only Havens Country Club and it is loaded with classic upgrades! The primary suite and two other bedrooms are on the same entry level – it’s 3,800sf of one-story living, with generous views over two holes and the foothills! Need to get down to the garage? Take the elegant staircase or ride the high-grade elevator! The old-Spanish styling and superior location makes this gem the finest home on the golf course! The smaller house across the street (and not on the golf course) just sold for $1,985,000!
Three-car garage plus room for your golf cart. Wine cellar that hold 668 bottles – wow! The Havens is a private country club and is associated with Cal-a-Vie Health Spa next door. Championship golf, tennis, pickleball, health club, restaurant and winery are existing benefits with pool/spa facility being built about 200 yards from this home! Golf or social memberships are available separately.
Hey everyone! I stumbled across this Elle Decor article late last year and I couldn’t help but share it with you all. It’s about embracing the “pretty ugly” trend. Some examples they include are a toe sculpture on top of the breakfast table and a crying little girl over the bed in the primary suite.
Thoughts on this interior design trend?
It’s not exactly my taste. To be honest, I don’t think I could ever eat breakfast or even a snack at a table with an XL toe/toenail next to me LOL. But I do love a pop of color or a unique/vintage furniture piece!
Each blog post here has at least one category, including ‘How Hot’ – which hasn’t been touched since 2017, so no new revelations there.
Let’s take a quick look at the January listings to use as our gauge.
Of the 126 NSDCC new listings this month, only 21 of them have gone pending or sold.
Four January listings have already closed escrow, and all were sold off-market, so not much to learn there. The remaining 17 of 122 that have found a buyer makes for only 14%, which doesn’t sound like many.
What’s the hold up? Are buyers determined to wait-and-see for an extended period?
Maybe, but it’s more due to the staleness.
Of the 126 January listings, 40% of them were on the market in the last half of 2024. A few listed with a new agent, and a handful raised their price. But the vast majority were refreshed by the same agent at the same price in hopes of fooling buyers into thinking that they were hot new listings coming to market.
You’re not going to fool many, because everyone knows to check the history of every new listing by now. The minute that buyers see that it was refreshed, it gets swiped.
This is #2 of my ten categories on why more listings will be coming to market in 2025, and just old-listings-being-refreshed could make up a bulk of my predicted +15% to +20% additional listings YoY by themselves!
When buyers see unsold listings starting to pile up, they might think the market is sluggish. But it’s just the listing agents doing it to ourselves again – undermining the truth!
We have received written offers on our new CV listing so we have done our customary thing and issued highest-and-best counter-offers to each buyer.
But there isn’t any typical or obvious way to update the other potential buyers and the general public on the progress and how they can join in. Usually when the listing agents get multiple offers, we see them happily put in their remarks ‘NO MORE SHOWINGS’, and then they turn off their phone.
So I included a new sentence right in my remarks, AND added an open house for tomorrow morning to give anyone else a chance to view the property.
The number of homes for sale has already exceeded the counts for the same time in 2023 and 2024, and the number of pendings is lower than the previous two years too.
The pendings’ count has dipped 10% since the start of the year, but it did the same thing last year before turning upward. Their blue line is barely visible on the chart because it is so similar to last year.
There have been 119 new listings in January, so 300+ looks achievable!
The guy who has been studying the homes-for-sale inventory closer than anyone
Expect the cost of insurance to rise, or taxes to go up. Or both! An excerpt:
Earlier this month, JPMorgan estimated the fires around Los Angeles had inflicted $50 billion in losses, of which only $20 billion were insured.
One reason for the gap: State regulators have prevented insurers from charging premiums commensurate with rising property values, construction costs and wildfire risk exacerbated by a warming climate. Many thus stopped renewing policies.
Hundreds of thousands of homeowners shifted to California’s state-run backstop, the Fair Plan, whose exposure has tripled since 2020 to $458 billion. It has only $2.5 billion in reinsurance and $200 million in cash.
If the Fair Plan runs out of money, it canimpose an assessmenton private insurers to be partly passed on to all policyholders. In other words, the costs of the disaster will be socialized.
California is a microcosm of what happens when insurance breaks down: Either households face potential ruin or the public is handed a financial time bomb.
“What we are seeing is a real disconnect,” said Carolyn Kousky, an economist specializing in risk and founder of the nonprofit Insurance For Good. “There are opposing views on insurance: Is it a private market good, or is it social protection, to make sure everyone has the resources to recover from disaster?”
A central feature of insurance is risk pooling: The combined contributions of the community cover the losses incurred by members of the community in a given year.
Another feature of private insurance is actuarial rate-making, that is, calibrating premiums to the customer’s risk. That’s to prevent “adverse selection,” in which only the riskiest people buy insurance, and moral hazard—the tendency to encourage risk by undercharging for it.
But some activities or individuals are so risky they could never obtain, or afford, private insurance. That’s when risk gets socialized. The federal government’s expansion since the 1930s has largely been through the provision of insurance: Social Security, unemployment insurance, health insurance for the elderly and poor, deposit, mortgage, and flood insurance and, after Sept. 11, 2001, terrorism insurance. Not for nothing is the federal government often called an insurance company with an army.
I wanted to give my shiny new microphone a good test so I did two videos while I was at it. This is a tour of some of the upgrades in our new listing in Carmel Valley.
I’ll be there today 11am – 2pm – stop by if you can! 11463 Nantucket.
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We sold a home with Jim and Donna and from beginning to end they were consummate professionals. Their initial walk through the property resulted in a list of items to be repaired or updated. They supplied a list of vendors and job quotes to do the repairs and updates. We originally wanted to sell ‘as is’ and just get it over with. They gave us a selling price for ‘as is’ and options for doing a few updates/repairs to doing it all with the selling price for each option. We agreed to do all they suggested and we sold for the exact price they predicted. For every dollar spent we got back more than $2 back in the selling price. And they got that price in a rising interest rate environment! Donna and Jim are extremely detailed and guide you through ever aspect of the sale. There were no surprises thanks to their guidance. We couldn’t be more pleased with their representation.
Thank you Donna and Jim,
Jerry and Mary
Heather Quejada
March 27, 2025
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We have known Jim & Donna Klinge for over a dozen years, having met them in Carlsbad where our children went to the same school. As long time North County residents, it was a no- brainer for us to have the Klinges be our eyes and ears for San Diego real estate in general and North County in particular. As my military career caused our family to move all over the country and overseas to Asia, Europe and the Pacific, we trusted Jim and Donna to help keep our house in Carlsbad rented with reliable and respectful tenants for over 10 years.
Naturally, when the time came to sell our beloved Carlsbad home to pursue a rural lifestyle in retirement out of California, we could think of no better team to represent us than Jim and Donna. They immediately went to work to update our house built in 2004 to current-day standards and trends — in 2 short months they transformed it into a literal modern-day masterpiece. We trusted their judgement implicitly and followed 100% of their recommended changes. When our house finally came on the market, there was a blizzard of serious interest, we had multiple offers by the third day and it sold in just 5 days after a frenzied bidding war for 20% above our asking price! The investment we made in upgrades recommended by Jim and Donna yielded a 4-fold return, in the process setting a new high water mark for a house sold in our community.
In our view, there are no better real estate professionals in all of San Diego than Jim and Donna Klinge. Buying or selling, you must run and beg Jim and Donna Klinge to represent you! Our family will never forget Jim, Donna, and their whole team at Compass — we are forever grateful to them.
Lou F
March 27, 2025
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WeI had the pleasure of working with Klinge Realty Group to sell our home in Carmel Valley, and I cannot recommend them highly enough!
Jim and Donna demonstrated exceptional professionalism, offering expert guidance on market conditions and pricing strategy, which resulted in a quick and successful sale.
Communication was prompt and we were well-informed throughout the entire process.
For anyone looking for a dedicated and knowledgeable real estate team, look no further!
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William Sams
March 25, 2025
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Donna and Jim Klinge of Klinge Realty Group have our highest possible recommendation. From Donna and Jim’s first visit to our house through closing their advice and counsel was candid and honest in all dealings. They kept us fully informed throughout the process. The house sold less than three days after listing with a two-week closing. My wife and I have sold several houses during our lives. This was by far the best experience. Klinge Reality is a premium service realtor. You can’t make a better choice for someone to sell your home fast and for top dollar.
Emily Hernandez
December 29, 2024
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Donna and Jim provided exceptional support and professionalism throughout the entire process. We couldn't have been happier with their efforts. They made our house shine, and thanks to their expertise, it sold above the listing price in the very first weekend! Truly a fantastic experience from start to finish.
Jesus Adrian Sahagun
November 11, 2024
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This year has been difficult on our family, mainly due to having to sell our home. Thankfully we knew God had a plan for us and working with the Klinge team was a key part of it. It was an obvious decision to work with them again after such an amazing experience when purchasing the same home we needed to sell. The challenge was, how will we do this in so little time with so much going on? Jim and Donna held our hand every step of the way. Whenever an unexpected issue arose they found and provided a solution. Never once did we feel pressured to make a decision and the Klinges were always reassuring after providing the information that the decision was ours to make. Despite the curve balls, they never panicked and exemplified the “can do” attitude, making us feel optimistic and taken care of. Their expertise and professionalism was superb. But of all the reasons to work with the Klinges, the most impactful and valuable is their compassion and genuine care for their clients. We pray that we can one day purchase our forever home and you better believe that Jim and Donna will be representing us - as long as they will have us of course. Thank you again Klinge team! Your execution, experience, and care are unmatched.
SABIHA PASHA
July 23, 2024
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Jim and Donna were fantastic! Jim understanding my needs, recommending potential places, pointing out the pros and cons of each property was invaluable. Then when the offer was accepted Donna’s organized guidance through the inspections, paperwork etc made the whole process seem effortless.
So grateful that I had them on my side!
Anu Koberg
July 13, 2024
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We first found Jim through his blog at bubbleinfo.com, which really showcased his knowledge of SoCal real estate. Since then we've done three transactions with Jim and Donna, and they are an incredible full service agency, with Jim's deep market insight and Donna's deft contract and project management. We trust them implicitly in their analysis and strategy, which is based on years of experience. They're always available and on top of things, and we strongly recommend them to anyone.
Bjorn Isachsen
July 10, 2024
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The Good
The Klinge Realty Group operates like a finely tuned machine, with a very personal touch. We contacted them on a Sunday and they were talking to us about our family and our needs on our living room couch the following day. They carefully listened to us and worked with us to identify the best and quickest path to listing within 2 weeks to take advantage of the low inventory conditions in our South Carlsbad neighborhood. They knew our tract specifically and had many previous sales there over the years - they came prepared with a thorough analysis of comparative sales and recommended a pricing strategy that they felt confident would yield offers the first weekend on the market.
The Great
Over the next two weeks Donna coordinated a range of vendors who she knew from experience could get the preparation to list work we needed done on time and with high quality. Our light tune-up involved excellent experiences with their stagers, landscapers, contractors, electricians, and plumbers. Throughout this period Donna's daily communication was clear, concise, and responsive. Any time we had questions Donna picked up the phone or texted immediately - but almost always, she answered our questions before we even knew we had them.
The Outstanding
We had a tricky situation with a shared fence that could have delayed our escrow. Donna used superb mediation skills to negotiate the terms of replacement and was personally on site with the fence contractor to make sure everything went smoothly. The fence looks great and escrow closed on time.
The Truly Exceptional
Our house came on the market on a Wednesday and between then and Monday morning Jim was personally at all three open houses. He was in constant communication explaining potential buyer reaction and strength. As he predicted offers began to come in on Saturday and each one was incrementally higher than the last. At the end we had 5 offers, 4 of which were over list, and the final accepted offer was $100,000 over list. In addition to being over list it included rent back terms that met our needs.
The Recommendation
For all of these reasons we would strongly recommend The Klinge Team to anyone wanting to sell in North County Coastal San Diego. I had been reading Jim's bubbleinfo.com blog for 15 years and knew when the time came to sell that he would be our first call. Jim Klinge is not your standard realtor. He is keenly aware of market conditions and sales strategies. And, works his tail off - though not as hard as Donna . At this point he's gone from realtor to friend and I plan to have him over to grill and chill at our new place to talk real estate, but also just about life and raising kids in San Diego. He's more interested in relationships than his sales numbers - and that's why his sales numbers are so high. We have already recommended the Klinge's to some close friends and another successful sale is on deck right around the corner...
Chris Shea
June 21, 2024
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We recently had the pleasure of working with Jim and Donna from Klinge Realty Group to sell our house, and we couldn't be more satisfied with the experience. From the initial meeting, they listened attentively to our needs and provided invaluable guidance on specific improvements to get our home market ready.
Their responsiveness throughout the entire process was truly impressive. Anytime we had questions or concerns, they were quick to address them, ensuring we felt comfortable and informed every step of the way. What stood out the most was their team and extensive network of tradespeople, which made addressing any necessary repairs or updates seamless and stress-free.
Thanks to their expertise and dedication, our house sold quickly and at a great price. We highly recommend Jim and Donna to anyone looking to buy or sell a home. They are a fantastic team who truly care about their clients and deliver exceptional results.
