How can we gauge how the market is doing?
Each blog post here has at least one category, including ‘How Hot’ – which hasn’t been touched since 2017, so no new revelations there.
Let’s take a quick look at the January listings to use as our gauge.
Of the 126 NSDCC new listings this month, only 21 of them have gone pending or sold.
Four January listings have already closed escrow, and all were sold off-market, so not much to learn there. The remaining 17 of 122 that have found a buyer makes for only 14%, which doesn’t sound like many.
What’s the hold up? Are buyers determined to wait-and-see for an extended period?
Maybe, but it’s more due to the staleness.
Of the 126 January listings, 40% of them were on the market in the last half of 2024. A few listed with a new agent, and a handful raised their price. But the vast majority were refreshed by the same agent at the same price in hopes of fooling buyers into thinking that they were hot new listings coming to market.
You’re not going to fool many, because everyone knows to check the history of every new listing by now. The minute that buyers see that it was refreshed, it gets swiped.
This is #2 of my ten categories on why more listings will be coming to market in 2025, and just old-listings-being-refreshed could make up a bulk of my predicted +15% to +20% additional listings YoY by themselves!
When buyers see unsold listings starting to pile up, they might think the market is sluggish. But it’s just the listing agents doing it to ourselves again – undermining the truth!
My Reasons Why NSDCC Inventory Will Surge in 2025:
1. Been trending that way – there has been 15% more NSDCC homes for sale this year than in 2023.
2. Since October 1st, there have been 90 more listings that cancelled than last year. They’ll be back!
3. Prop 19 was fun while it lasted – more of those who inherited a home will want to cash out.
4. Credit card debt is over $1 trillion for the first time. More current homeowners will lighten the load by paying off all their bills and downsize to cheaper home (probably out of state).
5. The affluent fleeing the country – if you have nothing tying you down here, then there are other choices.
6. The 5th anniversary of Covid is a few months away. Those who put off moving can go ahead now!
7. California politics drives people away. Gav’s $25 million to fight Trump? Might be the last straw for some.
8. I don’t have the statistics but more baby boomers should be shuffling off this mortal coil.
9. We’re all older – if you’re going to move, do it while you still can, physically!
10. Covid-era buyers cashing in on their new-found gains.
“Buying a home in 2024 was surprisingly competitive given how high the affordability hurdle became,” said Skylar Olsen, Zillow chief economist. “More inventory should shake loose in 2025, giving buyers a bit more room to breathe.”
The median list price of the 126 listings in January is $3,199,000.
Last month, there were 105 new listings with a median LP of $2,695,000. It probably means that the refreshing is more on the higher end – but it is happening at all price points.
In January, 2024 there were 265 new listings with a median LP of $2,599,000.
BTW, of the 126 new listings this month, there were four that sold in 2024. All have added at least $500,000 on top of their purchase price!
It was a deal just because they bought it!