Last Friday I had my nine reasons why inventory is going to surge in 2025, and it’s going to start up in January just like it did this year. It wasn’t a bad thing in 2024 because NSDCC sales have increased +6% year-over-year as the demand picked up some of the extra supply.
But as we saw in August, the demand has its limits, so any surge in supply in 2025 needs to be muted, and hopefully we’ll end up with about the same number of listings as we had in 2024 – and they just come earlier.
My nine categories are full of potential home sellers, and here’s #10 – covid buyers:
Younger Americans who bought homes during the COVID-19 pandemic could account for a surprisingly large share of home sellers in the coming year, as boomers who have owned their homes for decades mostly refuse to sell, a new survey finds.
Among current homeowners, nearly 1 in 5 say they plan to sell their home next year, according to the results released on Wednesday by Bright MLS. Although people who purchased their home in the past five years accounted for just 24% of all homeowners, they made up 32% of those who plan to sell their home in 2025.
Homeowners in their 30s and 40s will be the most active group of sellers in 2025, with 27% of homeowners aged 30 to 39 and 28% of homeowners aged 40 to 49 indicating they expect to sell in the coming year. By comparison, just 10% of older homeowners plan to sell.
“Record-low mortgage rates during the pandemic were a huge incentive for individuals and families to buy a home. Many of these buyers also have been able to quickly accumulate significant equity in their homes as home prices have escalated,” says Lisa Sturtevant, Bright MLS chief economist.
In November, national median list prices were up 37% from the same month five years ago, according to Realtor.com® economic research data.
“This wealth gain has created financial security for this group of homeowners, and is also allowing them to be move-up buyers even in today’s relatively high interest rate environment,” says Sturtevant.
The Realtor.com 2025 Housing Forecast notes that the market is shifting from a strong seller’s market to one in which buyers and sellers have more balanced market power.
“As a result, sellers will need to price carefully to attract buyers, especially in markets where affordability is an issue,” says Realtor.com Chief Economist Danielle Hale.
Hale adds that while there’s potential for a favorable market for sellers, “the overall landscape will depend largely on how economic conditions, interest rates, and housing supply evolve over the first few months of the year.”
The survey found that of homeowners in their 30s and 40s who are planning to move, 30% have a mortgage with an interest rate below 4% and more than two-thirds have a rate below 5%.
Mortgage rates are currently averaging 6.69%, and the Realtor.com economic research team forecasts they will continue to average above 6% through the end of 2025.
It means that many families who plan to move will do so regardless of the higher rates. The survey found that the traditional reasons of family and career were the main impetus for moving among younger homeowners who plan to sell.
Among homeowners in their 30s who plan to sell, 37% said it would be for job reasons and 34% cited family reasons, including marriage, children, divorce, and being closer to family.
For homeowners in their 40s, the priorities were reversed, with family changes cited as the most common reason for moving, at 44%, and career changes, at 26%.
Only about 6% of homeowners aged 60-plus said they were planning to sell their home in 2025, according to the survey.
https://www.realtor.com/news/trends/pandemic-homebuyers-sales-housing-forecast/
