I thought that this would be the week that the surge of new listings would start to appear, but not yet. There have only been 167 new listings this month between La Jolla and Carlsbad, which is about the same pace as last January.
The monthly closed sales are about the same too. There were 102 NSDCC sales last January, and so far there have been 87 closings this month so we should exceed the 2024 count.
Ok – so we’re doing the same or a little better than last year.
The concern?
There have only been 81 new pendings this month.
It means the future closings are going to be light.
It looks like we’ll be lucky to reach 100 sales next month. There are only 109 total pendings today, and probably 20 of those will close this month! Last February, there were 140 closings.
Let’s examine our listing on Nantucket for guidance.
I thought we could get 5-10 offers, and might get bid up 5% to 10% over list. The house looked spectacular and seemed superior to the comp RIGHT NEXT DOOR that was pending with the same list price. The neighbor had a pool, but inside looked very standard.
But we received fewer than five offers and it only got bid up a little.
What happened?
I had 200+ people attend the open houses, so it seemed like everything was going right. But there must have been at least 6-8 people who told me that they were going to make an offer, but then disappeared.
Was it the three-day weekend? I had 200+ people attend.
Was it too early in the season? I had 200+ people attend.
Was it the price? I had 200+ people attend.
No matter how many homes the potential buyers have seen, they had to recognize that this home was highly upgraded, which is hard to find around Carmel Valley where the vast majority of homes for sale are older tract houses – but not old enough to be thoroughly renovated yet. It’s probably the worst time ever for CV shopping because every home not in Pacific Highlands Ranch looks dated now.
We have lookers. They appear to be very cautious and content to wait-and-see.
Will they be buyers? If they are waiting for better pricing, they will be in for a LONG wait. Sellers aren’t going to budge when they have a comp or two to back their case on price.
Buyer-agents are fading away, and this is where we will see the impact. Without having good help, potential buyers will be overly cautious and stay comfortably on the fence. Fewer sales ahead!
My 213 is starting to look better and better 😉
What’s happening is gov sepnding and jobs are a big question mark right now. This affects both gov employees and private industry that works supplying gov with xyz.
Trump is talking about infrastructure spending but it’s not happening yet and even when it happens it will affect a different group of winners and losers.
I also believe banks will start taking their chips off the table soon + start processing BKs again.
The final guesses on the number of NSDCC January listings are in – here they are:
211 – Eddie89
213 – Shadash
216 – regina
246 – Anne M
267 – Surfrider
280 – doughboy
293 – Joe
296 – Tim DeRoche
303 – Tom
307 – Jun
311 – SN
317 – CB Mark
318 – Nick
328 – Majeed
337 – natalie
353 – Derek
355 – Skip
365 – Leo
401 – Dr k
417 – Susie
421 – Giving Cat