A columnist reflected on history to help measure whether it’s a seller’s market, or a buyer’s market. I like it!
House-hunting’s transformation includes several market trends including people moving less often, consumers accessing detailed market info, near-instant cash buyers and tighter lending standards. Maybe the buyer/seller-market math should morph, too.
From 1990 through 2006, just before the bubble burst, California was a “buyer’s market” in 49 percent of all months and a “seller’s market” 17 percent of the time — using the traditional 6-month/3-month template and Realtor data.
Looking at the past 12 post-crash years — assuming you’d want to match that pattern — a buyer’s market would be 3.25 months-plus of supply and a seller’s market would be 2.25 months or less.
This evolving gap in homebuying supply is another reminder of today’s steep house-hunting challenges.
Currently there are 359 active detached-home listings between La Jolla and Carlsbad, and last month there were 140 sales. The 359/140 = 2.56, which, by the new definition, is pretty close to a seller’s market!
Yesterday, 2,400 Compass agents came to the Rady Shell to hear CEO Robert Reffkin discuss the accomplishments of his clients, the agents. Here are this year’s facts to plug into our presentations:
Compass #1 in sales volume nationwide last two years.
Compass agents sell 2.5x the average agent.
Retention – 98% of Compass agents stayed last year, and 300 who left have come back.
$1.5 billion invested into the agent/client platform.
500+ people in the engineering department improving tech daily.
$1.0 billion in Compass Concierge money spent to maximize the sales price for sellers.
$1 trillion in sales volume in less than ten years.
High tech and high touch!
The support that Compass agents receive from the brokerage enables us to be more effective with helping our clients, and run our businesses with high efficiency!
Robert is one heck of a leader. This year, he has visited 40 metro areas to meet with agents in most of the 200+ Compass offices. Then on the weekends, he takes his wife and three little kids to open houses around the NYC area in support of Compass agents – including on Mother’s Day!
But in the end, it is up to the individual agents to perfect their own presentations. The best thing any leader can do to support highly competitive people is to create a contest!
There will be local, regional, and national prizes for the agents who deliver the most buyer-broker agreements and sales in 2024 – with the top ten agents being flown to NYC for dinner at Robert’s home!
An incredible loss today of Padres owner Peter Seidler. He was only 63 years old, and left a wife and three kids. In September, he announced that he had undergone a surgery and wouldn’t be attending any more Padres games, and it must have gotten worse.
We are downtown for the Compass convention so we went by to pay our respects. There were 30-40 others there doing the same, and it was quite somber.
One guy said that he was afraid that the dreams of a Padres championship might have died with Peter, and the recent talk of scaling back the team supports it. What a tragedy.
It’s been over two weeks since the verdict was announced on the commission lawsuit, and the response from the realtor community has been tepid, to say the least.
Agents are waiting to see a strong example of how to convince buyers to sign a buyer-broker agreement. It’s easy for management to just say, “Have your buyers pay you directly”. But will you furnish us with anything besides the cheesy 179-point list?
The annual Compass convention starts today in San Diego, and we’ll see what management has to say.
Meanwhile, CoStar senses an opportunity, and have ramped up their advertising of homes.com to agents. They say their search portal had 100 million unique visitors last month, passing realtor.dud and pulling into the #2 slot behind Zillow.
Their pitch? They send buyers to the listing agent directly.
When Zillow visitors inquire about getting more information or seeing a home, they get sent to the call center where Zillow employees scrub the leads, and send them out to agents who have agreed to pay 30% to 40% of their total commission to Zillow.
Homes.com will send those leads directly to the listing agent, no charge.
How long will it be before agents migrate their advertising budgets to homes.com? The buyer-broker agreement should be a complete failure by next summer, and instead the march towards single agency will be well underway by then.
The conversion to single agency will look like an obvious solution to the casual observers like judges, juries, and the DOJ because it will give the illusion that fees are coming down. But it will just add to the trouncing of buyers that has been going on for years.
Just when quality buyer representation will really be needed, the trend will be in the other direction.
During the Yahoo Finance Invest Conference, Meredith Whitney, who accurately predicted the 2008 financial crisis and became known as “the Oracle of Wall Street,” said that housing prices will fall in 2024 due to a “silver tsunami” of baby boomers who are expected to downsize in the coming years.
More than 30 million units of housing are expected to be brought onto the market as 51% of people over 50, who own more than 70% of U.S. homes, downsize to smaller homes.
It’s been a challenging time for hopeful homebuyers amid soaring prices and mortgage rates, but a little bit of good news might be around the corner.
Highlighting estimates from AARP, Whitney said that over 51% of individuals aged 50 and above, who own more than 70% of U.S. homes, are projected to move into smaller residences. This downsizing trend could result in over 30 million units of housing being brought onto the market.
Every year another expert rages on about the silver tsunami, mostly based on antiquated beliefs that seniors will all downsize – but it’s different now, especially around San Diego.
If seniors are downsizing, they need to leave town to make it worth moving. Here’s how the local populations have changed in a recent 2-year period – it’s hardly been an exodus, and it also suggests that there are new incoming residents who are filling the gap:
First, let’s identify how realtors get their business.
Either they earn the business (#1&2 above), or they buy the business (#3 above).
They earn it by creating relationships with friends and family that turn into sales. Those results create word-of-mouth endorsements that will hopefully be the foundation of the realtor’s business.
Or agents can buy the business through advertising.
There are several realtors in our area who spend $25,000 to $50,000 per month on advertising, which means they need to charge the higher commission rates – and that probably won’t change.
Billboards, bus benches, trailers in movie theaters, grocery store carts, etc. all lathered with realtor advertising that supplement their online ads, social media, and mailers to the neighborhood. These realtors hope to subconsciously create a positive image in the homeowners’ minds, which causes them to reach out to the ‘local expert’ when the time comes.
Which realtor will help you the most, and be deserving of their pay?
The best part of the realtor lawsuits is that they might cause consumers to investigate the choices more thoroughly. It is a daunting task because of the number of realtors out there, and the lack of hiring knowledge available. It’s why 80% of consumers hire the first agent they meet – they haven’t moved in a while, and in the microwave society they just want to grab an agent and go. Plus, the realtor industry provides virtually no guidance on the selection process, so you’re on your own.
My General Tips:
Those who spend the big money are vunerable to investigations – they hope that you grab and go instead. Once a team gets to 10 people or more, you have to wonder who is doing the heavy lifting. There are many top producers now in North County who have retired – but you wouldn’t know it because they leave everything in place, and just let the assistants run the machine. See if you can get the team leader on the phone, and check their reviews on Google and Zillow to see which agent is being acknowledged for the work. It’s not a bad thing to work with the assistants, but you’d like to know that up front.
The bigger the team, the less personal attention you will get. Their expertise will hopefully make up for it, but you should know that if your sale doesn’t work out, it’s not going to change their lifestyle.
Realtor websites look the same – brags about their sales, a button to search for your ‘dream’ home, and another for a computerized value of your home. With both buttons, you give up your contact information so they can pester you. Do they provide any helpful content on their website or social media? Their published content is a direct reflection of their expertise, and awareness of current market conditions.
Are they too busy for you? Simple way to find out. Call their phone number, and see what happens.
Every agent has their sales history on Zillow (whether they like it or not, because Zillow auto-loads them). If you are looking to conduct a full analysis, you’ll have fun with this data. One sale per month is a good sign, and check their mix of buyers and sellers, mix of price points, the SP:LP ratio on their sold listings, their listing presentations (quantity/quality of photos) and days on market. It’s takes work, but time well spent.
Do you want to hire the local expert? Rarely do they go into detail on what that means for you, and besides, every agent calls themselves the local expert.
Do you want to hire a long-time veteran? Only if they are still on their game (minimum one sale per month, etc.). More than half of all realtors are 60+ years old, and you don’t want to be their last sale.
Are they available? Deals are being done 24/7, so how the agent handles that is important.
Can they put a few sentences together to describe the current market conditions? It means you have to talk to them live, but it’s a terrific way to judge a realtor’s competency.
My big hope is that the realtor lawsuits give consumers the idea that they should shop around more, and they search for the best combination of quality realtor and commission rate. My guess is that the commission rates won’t change much, and they sure won’t be advertised. It should mean more scrutiny on what a realtor does for you – which is a great thing, and how the decision should be made!
The percentage change in Active Listings between the first week of October and mid-November:
2018: -3%
2019: -11%
2020: -12%
2021: -18%
2022: -0-
2023: -4%
It looks like the sellers are hanging around a while longer to see if November might be their lucky month. Only 16 listings went pending since last Monday (current count is 112 pendings), and there have been 39 closings this month.
It’s probably going to stay fairly quiet the rest of the year because sellers aren’t sensing any reason to panic, and they can see the 2024 Selling Season from here.
This is the same graph from November 14, 2022 – the late-summer surge of pendings was better this year:
A simple analogy for realtor commissions is a long-distance flight abroad.
Someone who was booking a flight from San Diego to Phoenix probably wouldn’t be too concerned about the quality. Because the flight only takes an hour, most can endure the inconveniences…..mostly due to the generally lousy service we get in every industry. We’ve become accustomed to not expecting much.
But when it comes to a long-distance flight, we might look harder at the differences.
Buying or selling a higher-end home is like flying to Australia.
A non-stop flight from LAX to Sydney, Australia is 15.5 hours, which should make people think harder about the choices. Not only does the airline, the staff, the type of airplane, the quality of the food, reviews, etc. get more scrutiny, but so does the seating chart.
Sitting in the economy section can be endured for an hour on a flight to Phoenix, but will you put up with screaming kids, the barking dog, and the guy who fills up more of his share of the seat for 15.5 hours?
Or do you deserve first class?
The problem with realtor commissions is that the agents all get paid the same, regardless of the quality of service provided. It’s as if everybuyer and seller pays for a first-class seat, but then only 10% to 20% of them get that level of service. It’s why there are so many complaints about realtors not being worth it – most don’t live up to the expectations, or their fee.
The commission lawsuits intend to change that, and they think they will cause the rates to go down.
But realtors intend to convince you that they are worth the usual fee by improving their presentations. The consumers who are willing to investigate will probably find something like this:
The exceptional realtors probably aren’t too interested in lowering their fee, so let’s examine the hiring of a realtor in the post-lawsuit era. Note that after years of using a pixel phone, I have finally switched to the iphone15promax – my first video with the new phone will start the inquiry:
Today is Veterans Day (originally Armistice Day) honoring military veterans of the United States Armed Forces marking the anniversary of the end of World War I.
Major hostilities of World War I were formally ended at the 11th hour of the 11th day of the 11th month of 1918 when the Armistice with Germany went into effect. At the urging of major U.S. veteran organizations, Armistice Day was renamed Veterans Day in 1954. Today may be the perfect reminder how easy it is to forget history…..no veterans from World War 1 are alive today, so keeping the enormous sacrifices some have made and experienced many years ago alive is important in our ability to not repeat the mistakes of the past.
While the holiday is commonly printed as Veteran’s Day or Veterans’ Day in calendars and advertisements, the United States Department of Veterans Affairs website states that the attributive (no apostrophe) rather than the possessive case is the official spelling “because it is not a day that ‘belongs’ to veterans, it is a day for honoring all veterans.
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A+ thank you
Lisa Tuomi
June 11, 2025
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Many years ago, we purchased a home in Carlsbad, using a realtor that was recommended to us - Jim Klinge. Fast forward to 2025, we recently had the privilege of selling 2 homes in Carlsbad, CA and didn't hesitate to reach out to Jim and Donna Klinge of Klinge Realty Group to guide us through the sales. The transactions were very different, each with its own unique situation, opportunities and challenges. From start to finish, Donna and Jim helped navigate the pre-sale preparation, the listing, showing of the house, buyer negotiations, the final close and all of the paperwork and decisions in between. What stands out with both transactions is the professionalism of Jim and Donna (and their team), wonderful communication (timely, relevant, concise), their deep understanding of market dynamics (setting realistic expectations), their access to top-notch contractors, and last, their ability to guide us across the finish line successfully. We wouldn't hesitate to use Jim and Donna in the future and highly recommend them for anyone looking to buy or sell a property in North San Diego County.
Jerry Meyer
March 28, 2025
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We sold a home with Jim and Donna and from beginning to end they were consummate professionals. Their initial walk through the property resulted in a list of items to be repaired or updated. They supplied a list of vendors and job quotes to do the repairs and updates. We originally wanted to sell ‘as is’ and just get it over with. They gave us a selling price for ‘as is’ and options for doing a few updates/repairs to doing it all with the selling price for each option. We agreed to do all they suggested and we sold for the exact price they predicted. For every dollar spent we got back more than $2 back in the selling price. And they got that price in a rising interest rate environment! Donna and Jim are extremely detailed and guide you through ever aspect of the sale. There were no surprises thanks to their guidance. We couldn’t be more pleased with their representation.
Thank you Donna and Jim,
Jerry and Mary
Heather Quejada
March 27, 2025
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We have known Jim & Donna Klinge for over a dozen years, having met them in Carlsbad where our children went to the same school. As long time North County residents, it was a no- brainer for us to have the Klinges be our eyes and ears for San Diego real estate in general and North County in particular. As my military career caused our family to move all over the country and overseas to Asia, Europe and the Pacific, we trusted Jim and Donna to help keep our house in Carlsbad rented with reliable and respectful tenants for over 10 years.
Naturally, when the time came to sell our beloved Carlsbad home to pursue a rural lifestyle in retirement out of California, we could think of no better team to represent us than Jim and Donna. They immediately went to work to update our house built in 2004 to current-day standards and trends — in 2 short months they transformed it into a literal modern-day masterpiece. We trusted their judgement implicitly and followed 100% of their recommended changes. When our house finally came on the market, there was a blizzard of serious interest, we had multiple offers by the third day and it sold in just 5 days after a frenzied bidding war for 20% above our asking price! The investment we made in upgrades recommended by Jim and Donna yielded a 4-fold return, in the process setting a new high water mark for a house sold in our community.
In our view, there are no better real estate professionals in all of San Diego than Jim and Donna Klinge. Buying or selling, you must run and beg Jim and Donna Klinge to represent you! Our family will never forget Jim, Donna, and their whole team at Compass — we are forever grateful to them.
Lou F
March 27, 2025
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WeI had the pleasure of working with Klinge Realty Group to sell our home in Carmel Valley, and I cannot recommend them highly enough!
Jim and Donna demonstrated exceptional professionalism, offering expert guidance on market conditions and pricing strategy, which resulted in a quick and successful sale.
Communication was prompt and we were well-informed throughout the entire process.
For anyone looking for a dedicated and knowledgeable real estate team, look no further!
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William Sams
March 25, 2025
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Donna and Jim Klinge of Klinge Realty Group have our highest possible recommendation. From Donna and Jim’s first visit to our house through closing their advice and counsel was candid and honest in all dealings. They kept us fully informed throughout the process. The house sold less than three days after listing with a two-week closing. My wife and I have sold several houses during our lives. This was by far the best experience. Klinge Reality is a premium service realtor. You can’t make a better choice for someone to sell your home fast and for top dollar.
Emily Hernandez
December 29, 2024
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Donna and Jim provided exceptional support and professionalism throughout the entire process. We couldn't have been happier with their efforts. They made our house shine, and thanks to their expertise, it sold above the listing price in the very first weekend! Truly a fantastic experience from start to finish.
Jesus Adrian Sahagun
November 11, 2024
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This year has been difficult on our family, mainly due to having to sell our home. Thankfully we knew God had a plan for us and working with the Klinge team was a key part of it. It was an obvious decision to work with them again after such an amazing experience when purchasing the same home we needed to sell. The challenge was, how will we do this in so little time with so much going on? Jim and Donna held our hand every step of the way. Whenever an unexpected issue arose they found and provided a solution. Never once did we feel pressured to make a decision and the Klinges were always reassuring after providing the information that the decision was ours to make. Despite the curve balls, they never panicked and exemplified the “can do” attitude, making us feel optimistic and taken care of. Their expertise and professionalism was superb. But of all the reasons to work with the Klinges, the most impactful and valuable is their compassion and genuine care for their clients. We pray that we can one day purchase our forever home and you better believe that Jim and Donna will be representing us - as long as they will have us of course. Thank you again Klinge team! Your execution, experience, and care are unmatched.
SABIHA PASHA
July 23, 2024
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Jim and Donna were fantastic! Jim understanding my needs, recommending potential places, pointing out the pros and cons of each property was invaluable. Then when the offer was accepted Donna’s organized guidance through the inspections, paperwork etc made the whole process seem effortless.
So grateful that I had them on my side!
Anu Koberg
July 13, 2024
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We first found Jim through his blog at bubbleinfo.com, which really showcased his knowledge of SoCal real estate. Since then we've done three transactions with Jim and Donna, and they are an incredible full service agency, with Jim's deep market insight and Donna's deft contract and project management. We trust them implicitly in their analysis and strategy, which is based on years of experience. They're always available and on top of things, and we strongly recommend them to anyone.
