Zillow 2017 Forecasts

by | Oct 17, 2016 | Carlsbad, Carmel Valley, Del Mar, Encinitas, Forecasts, Jim's Take on the Market, La Jolla, Rancho Santa Fe, Solana Beach, Zillow

2017-la-jolla

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It’s that time of the year – the 2017 forecasts are starting to roll out!

Zillow has been conservative about our local markets.  For the most part, the actual appreciation of the Zillow Home Value Index has been higher than their forecasts over the last two years.

Their local forecasts for 2017 are all lower than their 2016 guesses, and what they are predicting could also be described as ‘Flatsville’.  If their local forecasts of +0.9% to +2.2% come true, it would mean that several sellers would end up selling for less than they could have gotten in 2016.

Are we ready for that yet?

Local ZHVI-Appreciation Forecasts

Town
2015 Forecast/Actual
2016 Forecast/Actual
2017 Forecast
Carlsbad
+2.7%/+4.8%
+1.9%/+3.8%
+1.3%
Carmel Valley
+0.3%/+5.4%
+1.4%/+1.9%
+0.9%
Del Mar
+5.5%/+1.1%
+1.4%/+2.6%
+1.1%
Encinitas
+0.6%/+8.3%
+2.4%/+6.3%
+2.2%
La Jolla
+2.7%/+6.6%
+2.3%/+6.1%
+2.1%
RSF
+0.4%/+11.1%
+3.7%/-0.5%
+1.9%
San Diego
+1.7%/+6.4%
+2.1%/+4.0%
+1.7%
Solana Beach
+2.7%/+6.4%
+2.2%/+2.6%
+1.4%

The Zillow data changes slightly, depending on where you look on their website, and whether you use town names or zip codes. Here is the LINK to find others.

encinitas-2017

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Top Five Favorite Vehicles

by | Feb 26, 2016 | About the author, Bubbleinfo TV, Carlsbad, Encinitas, Jim's Take on the Market, Solana Beach | 3 comments

I mentioned in this video the bucket list Top Five vehicles – here’s my list:

1979 Cadillac Seville

1979 Cadillac Seville, had this one for a couple of years, shouldn’t have sold it.

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53willyscj3b

1953 Willy’s CJ3B. It had the original flathead four-banger engine that could crawl over anything. We changed that out for a Chevy 283V8. Rolled it two different times, no one killed. We built a big cake around it and cruised the last Fullerton homecoming parade like in Animal House (they cancelled the football program the next year).  It was also the ride I was driving when I met my wife – I borrowed my dad’s car to take her to Bobs.

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51 cadillac

1958 Cadillac Convertible – with the big fins! One of the few decent things done by the Padres when they gave Trevor this one as they retired his number 51. The 1959 version is great too.

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69camaro

1969 Chevrolet Camaro SS Convertible – Indy Pace Car.  A staple on favorite-lists everywhere and mine made a little more special when John Doe and Exene drove up in one when they played at Fullerton.

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The fifth is seen at the end of this video:

Zillow San Diego Forecast 2016

by | Dec 28, 2015 | Carlsbad, Carmel Valley, Del Mar, Encinitas, Forecasts, Jim's Take on the Market, La Jolla, Market Buzz, Market Conditions, Rancho Santa Fe, Solana Beach, Zillow | 2 comments

la jolla 2016

Most national forecasts are predicting a 3% to 4% appreciation rate for 2016, which has to be a safe bet.  If it comes in anywhere from -2% to +8%, you can say that you were close.

Zillow has enough algorithms that they are willing to make predictions for each local area.  They have conflicting numbers, depending on where you look on their website – these are from the Home Values section:

http://www.zillow.com/home-values/

You can see that Zillow was less optimistic last year too.  Most were predicting that mortgage rates would be in the mid-4s by now, so the lower rates in 2015 helped fuel higher-than-expected prices.  Could rates stay right where they are? Maybe, but both Zillow and I think the euphoria will die down next year:

Zillow Price-Appreciation Predictions

Town
2015 Prediction
2015 Actual
2016 Prediction
“Market Temperature”
Carlsbad
+2.7%
+4.8%
+1.9%
Cool
Carmel Valley
+0.3%
+5.4%
+1.4%
Cold
Del Mar
+5.5%
+1.1%
+1.4%
Very Cold
Encinitas
+0.6%
+8.3%
+2.4%
Warm
La Jolla
+2.7%
+6.6%
+2.3%
Very Cold
RSF
+0.4%
+11.1%
+3.7%
–
San Diego
+1.7%
+6.4%
+2.1%
Warm
Solana Beach
+2.7%
+6.4%
+2.2%
Cold

For some reason, Zillow is also labeling each market from Warm to Very Cold.  The labels don’t seem to correspond to the predictions, so I don’t know their intent – are they just trying to tell you to put on a sweater?

How will buyers feel about getting worked over for that last 2% to 3% when they see they are in a ‘Very Cold’ market?

Solana Beach Bidding War

by | Mar 19, 2015 | About the author, Bidding Wars, Bubbleinfo TV, Jim's Take on the Market, Listing Agent Practices, Solana Beach, Why You Should List With Jim | 2 comments

Here I describe some of the details of how the sale went down on Glenmont in Solana Beach, which listed for $1,499,000 on January 8th.  Not every agent operates this way – many will just grab a cash offer and go for the easy close.  But I prefer to go all out:

http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/669-Glenmont-Dr-Solana-Beach-CA-92075/16726516_zpid/

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