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Economist Talk

Matthew does a statistical comparison of today vs. 2008 in this video below. Important to note how his stats show how comfortable sellers are today, and I’ll add that even if homeowners lose their job and stop making payments, it would take a year or two before you’d see foreclosures:

Could the coronnavirus get so bad that it triggers the boomer liquidations? Maybe, and if so, the boomer sales would still be spread out over time because homeowners – especially the long-timers – will resist leaving the comforts of home for as long as possible, and they will hope that waiting out the virus will lead to a better market.

Clear Cooperation Policy May 1st

The new N.A.R Clear Cooperation Policy takes effect on May 1st.

Next Monday, the CRMLS will begin a Coming-Soon category in the MLS for agents only. The listings can only be in the coming-soon category for 21 days, and no showings are allowed.

But the feature won’t be part of the San Diego MLS.

Realtors in San Diego County are split between one faction that wants to join CRMLS (which is the MLS provider for most of Southern California), and the other association of realtors who wants to be on their own. The compromise was a data-sharing agreement that allows both MLS systems to facilitate agent access to the county-wide inventory.  But because the SDAR won’t cooperate, there won’t be a Coming-Soon category developed in the San Diego MLS.  But it is coming to the rest of Southern California next week – but for agents only, and no showings so I guess it’s an FYI to the realtor community.

So there won’t be much change to the casual observer in San Diego County.

Multiple agents asked the question, “How can I sell my Coming-Soons if I can’t show them?”, demonstrating how oblivious some realtors are on why the new rule was created in the first place – to stop agents from doing off-market deals, and, instead, share all their listings with every realtor.

I sell yours, and you sell mine!

But realtors do have the option to take the listing as an office exclusive and distribute it among agents within their brokerage for days or weeks before putting it on the open market.  It is inevitable that 20% to 30% of our listings will be sold off-market, and they will be the choice properties that don’t need mass exposure to find a buyer.

Why will these off-market deals persist, when NAR is trying to prevent them?

Because the industry looks the other way.

As long as the inventory is tight, agents will be motivated to keep their listings within the club – at least for the first few days or weeks while they get it ready for market. If it sells prior to going onto the MLS, then great – and no risk of getting the corona from all those strangers coming around.

Corona By Zip +25 Days

For a county of 3.3 million people, we’re doing good. An update on stats by area:

Area by Zip Code
April 2nd Count
April 27th Count
% Increase
Carlsbad (4 zips)
37
51
+38%
Carmel Valley
21
31
+48%
Del Mar
11
17
+55%
Encinitas
23
30
+23%
La Jolla
29
35
+21%
PB/MB
22
34
+55%
Rancho Santa Fe
12
12
+0%
San Diego Downtown
29
55
+90%
Solana Beach
4
5
+25%


San Diego Case-Shiller Index, Feb

This year’s month-over-month gain in San Diego is about half of what it was in February 2018 & 2019.

“The big question now, is how quickly the home listings will awaken after the pause or will unemployment drag down purchase activity going forward.  If buyers come back faster than sellers, it could cause prices to push even higher as buyers compete over the slim choices.”

Bill Banfield, Quicken Loans Executive Vice President of Capital Markets

San Diego Non-Seasonally-Adjusted CSI changes:

Observation Month
SD CSI
M-o-M chg
Y-o-Y chg
January ’18
248.16
+0.8%
+7.3%
Feb
250.91
+1.1%
+7.5%
Mar
253.41
+1.0%
+7.6%
April
255.63
+0.9%
+7.7%
May
257.07
+0.6%
+7.3%
Jun
258.44
+0.6%
+6.9%
Jul
258.49
0.0%
+6.2%
Aug
257.32
-0.5%
+4.7%
Sept
256.13
-0.4%
+3.9%
Oct
255.26
-0.1%
+3.7%
Nov
253.37
-0.6%
+3.3%
Dec
251.68
-0.7%
+2.3%
January ’19
251.30
-0.2%
+1.3%
Feb
253.69
+0.9%
+1.1%
Mar
256.40
+1.1%
+1.2%
Apr
257.63
+0.5%
+0.8%
May
260.08
+1.0%
+1.1%
June
261.90
+0.7%
+1.3%
July
263.66
+0.7%
+2.0%
Aug
263.23
-0.2%
+2.3%
Sep
263.26
0%
+2.8%
Oct
262.56
-0.2%
+2.7%
Nov
263.18
+0.2%
+3.9%
Dec
263.51
+0.1%
+4.7%
Jan ’20
264.04
+0.2%
+5.1%
Feb
265.34
+0.5%
+4.6%

“Results for the month were broad-based, with gains in every city in our 20-City Composite; 17 of the 20 cities saw accelerating prices,” said Craig Lazzara, managing director and global head of index investment strategy at S&P Dow Jones Indices.

Price gains continued to be strongest in Phoenix, Seattle, Tampa and Charlotte. In February, Phoenix home values were up 7.5% year over year, followed by Seattle with a 6% increase, and Tampa and Charlotte with 5.2% increases. Chicago, New York and Dallas saw the smallest annual price gains at 0.7%, 1.5% and 2.5% respectively.

Link to CNBC article

Valley Center

This was taped on December 24, 2008, which was about the bottom of the last downturn. I’ll never forget how a lady busted my chops for blowing through stop signs on my way to the home – but I think I’m legal. You decide for yourself. This is my most-viewed YouTube ever:

More New Listings

One key to any potential comeback is having more homes to sell.

The weekly counts above are the net effect of new listings minus new pendings. When we have a good week of net new pendings (like we did this week with +13), it means a positive move by the new listings is even more impressive.  Let’s also note how different this year started.

Last year we averaged 103 new NSDCC listings per week, and today’s count was 79 for the past week, so we’re not far off our normal springtime pace. We can probably expect a very active summer!

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