Matthew does a statistical comparison of today vs. 2008 in this video below. Important to note how his stats show how comfortable sellers are today, and I’ll add that even if homeowners lose their job and stop making payments, it would take a year or two before you’d see foreclosures:
Could the coronnavirus get so bad that it triggers the boomer liquidations? Maybe, and if so, the boomer sales would still be spread out over time because homeowners – especially the long-timers – will resist leaving the comforts of home for as long as possible, and they will hope that waiting out the virus will lead to a better market.
The new N.A.R Clear Cooperation Policy takes effect on May 1st.
Next Monday, the CRMLS will begin a Coming-Soon category in the MLS for agents only. The listings can only be in the coming-soon category for 21 days, and no showings are allowed.
But the feature won’t be part of the San Diego MLS.
Realtors in San Diego County are split between one faction that wants to join CRMLS (which is the MLS provider for most of Southern California), and the other association of realtors who wants to be on their own. The compromise was a data-sharing agreement that allows both MLS systems to facilitate agent access to the county-wide inventory. But because the SDAR won’t cooperate, there won’t be a Coming-Soon category developed in the San Diego MLS. But it is coming to the rest of Southern California next week – but for agents only, and no showings so I guess it’s an FYI to the realtor community.
So there won’t be much change to the casual observer in San Diego County.
Multiple agents asked the question, “How can I sell my Coming-Soons if I can’t show them?”, demonstrating how oblivious some realtors are on why the new rule was created in the first place – to stop agents from doing off-market deals, and, instead, share all their listings with every realtor.
I sell yours, and you sell mine!
But realtors do have the option to take the listing as an office exclusive and distribute it among agents within their brokerage for days or weeks before putting it on the open market. It is inevitable that 20% to 30% of our listings will be sold off-market, and they will be the choice properties that don’t need mass exposure to find a buyer.
Why will these off-market deals persist, when NAR is trying to prevent them?
Because the industry looks the other way.
As long as the inventory is tight, agents will be motivated to keep their listings within the club – at least for the first few days or weeks while they get it ready for market. If it sells prior to going onto the MLS, then great – and no risk of getting the corona from all those strangers coming around.
This year’s month-over-month gain in San Diego is about half of what it was in February 2018 & 2019.
“The big question now, is how quickly the home listings will awaken after the pause or will unemployment drag down purchase activity going forward. If buyers come back faster than sellers, it could cause prices to push even higher as buyers compete over the slim choices.”
Bill Banfield, Quicken Loans Executive Vice President of Capital Markets
San Diego Non-Seasonally-Adjusted CSI changes:
Observation Month
SD CSI
M-o-M chg
Y-o-Y chg
January ’18
248.16
+0.8%
+7.3%
Feb
250.91
+1.1%
+7.5%
Mar
253.41
+1.0%
+7.6%
April
255.63
+0.9%
+7.7%
May
257.07
+0.6%
+7.3%
Jun
258.44
+0.6%
+6.9%
Jul
258.49
0.0%
+6.2%
Aug
257.32
-0.5%
+4.7%
Sept
256.13
-0.4%
+3.9%
Oct
255.26
-0.1%
+3.7%
Nov
253.37
-0.6%
+3.3%
Dec
251.68
-0.7%
+2.3%
January ’19
251.30
-0.2%
+1.3%
Feb
253.69
+0.9%
+1.1%
Mar
256.40
+1.1%
+1.2%
Apr
257.63
+0.5%
+0.8%
May
260.08
+1.0%
+1.1%
June
261.90
+0.7%
+1.3%
July
263.66
+0.7%
+2.0%
Aug
263.23
-0.2%
+2.3%
Sep
263.26
0%
+2.8%
Oct
262.56
-0.2%
+2.7%
Nov
263.18
+0.2%
+3.9%
Dec
263.51
+0.1%
+4.7%
Jan ’20
264.04
+0.2%
+5.1%
Feb
265.34
+0.5%
+4.6%
“Results for the month were broad-based, with gains in every city in our 20-City Composite; 17 of the 20 cities saw accelerating prices,” said Craig Lazzara, managing director and global head of index investment strategy at S&P Dow Jones Indices.
Price gains continued to be strongest in Phoenix, Seattle, Tampa and Charlotte. In February, Phoenix home values were up 7.5% year over year, followed by Seattle with a 6% increase, and Tampa and Charlotte with 5.2% increases. Chicago, New York and Dallas saw the smallest annual price gains at 0.7%, 1.5% and 2.5% respectively.
This was taped on December 24, 2008, which was about the bottom of the last downturn. I’ll never forget how a lady busted my chops for blowing through stop signs on my way to the home – but I think I’m legal. You decide for yourself. This is my most-viewed YouTube ever:
One key to any potential comeback is having more homes to sell.
The weekly counts above are the net effect of new listings minus new pendings. When we have a good week of net new pendings (like we did this week with +13), it means a positive move by the new listings is even more impressive. Let’s also note how different this year started.
Last year we averaged 103 new NSDCC listings per week, and today’s count was 79 for the past week, so we’re not far off our normal springtime pace. We can probably expect a very active summer!
I ran into Keith at the Carlsbad Company Stores and wondered if he is more famous than Robbie Krieger or Michael McDonald as the two other most famous people I've met?
Jim the Realtor is legit - I interviewed three brokers; he said list price should be $100,000 higher than the other two brokers; listed it with him and had all cash (no financing) offer in two days, five day contingency period, closing in two weeks - and it closed at his recommended list price. I could not recommend anyone more than I recommend Jim the Realtor.
drp2drp
2020-12-30
When we moved to San Diego in 2005 we rented a big house on Mt. Soledad (La Jolla) with 180 degree ocean views for the same payment as a mortgage on a dump in Chula Vista. Clearly something was wrong. Yet, the media was full of the usual happy-talk nonsense, so I was glad to find Jim's blog. I've followed his honest assessments and data since.
We decided to sell and move to AZ at Thanksgiving. Dec. 1st we met with Jim to sell our home. We closed today (29 days later). Jim orchestrated a feeding frenzy -- we had 25 showings in 2-1/2 days, multiple offers, and sold for well over asking price. I'd say he earned his commission! We have owned and sold homes in 5 different States always using experienced, productive, full-time realtors. Jim outshines them all.
You don't decide to sell and close 29 days later over Christmas (with COVID lockdown) without some miracles. Donna was amazing at performing lots of those miracles and ensuring that everything was done right and on time. They are a terrific team with a very responsive and professional network.
AmberleePiercy
2020-10-21
Where do we begin..2020 has been a year for everyone. When COVID hit and shut down both my husband and my businesses, we were left with a mortgage and very little income coming in. We were stressed, scared and felt stuck. We made the hard decision to sell our home and move out of state. We contacted the Klinges' and spent a good hour going over what we hoped we could accomplish. Jim and Donna came over with comps in hand and suggestions on improvements to get our house ready for the market. It was overwhelming to think about, but Donna was there and one step ahead in every scenario. Basically we just approved what they suggested and Donna handled literally everything. We placed our house on the market and within the first day we had multiple offers well above asking price! We couldn't believe it. We were overjoyed! Jim countered the offers to weed through them, and everyone came back with way more. It was amazing, and we are ?? sure it was because of the staging and repairs the Klinges suggested we do.
Due to unforeseen dishonesty from the buyers lender, we hit a big hurdle when trying to close. We had already moved out of state and were shocked when three days before closing the lender dropped a bombshell on the buyers and us. However, Jim and Donna handled it like veterans, not afraid to play hard ball and represent their clients. After a few phone calls with us, and several between Donna and the lender, they had a plan B-Z to make sure we were taken care of. In the end we closed with even more money than we ever thought possible and with very little work from us. The Klinges handled this entire "2020" worthy event with the utmost professionalism and did everything in their power to not only make this as smooth as possible for us, but we also walked away with more money from the sale of the house than we ever hoped for. After working with Jim and Donna, you don't ever use anyone else. They are hands down the best team to represent you in any scenario.
Cecilia Acevedo
2020-10-01
Working with Klinge Realty Group was a great experience! They are very responsive, professional and knowledgable about the real estate market! I would definitely recommend Klinge Realty Group.
WAH08
2020-10-01
Jim and Donna Klinge made the sale of our condo extraordinarily easy. They know the market and gave us sound advice backed by details and very considerable experience, reflected both in the initial pricing and subsequent negotiations. They work together as a team and are always available to talk. We had a few challenges with our property and they were able to coordinate the resolution to everything, including items that I would not think would ordinarily be their responsibility to handle. They made the whole process effortless on our part. They are folks with high integrity and we cannot recommend them highly enough.
bethamunce
2019-09-26
Review for Member: Donna Klinge
I cannot believe there are no reviews of Donna yet, ugh!! She is the secret sauce of the Jim Klinge/Donna Klinge combo! I will touch on Jim here, but Donna is why I'm so totally loyal to these two (no offense to Jim :)).
I consider myself a rather savvy buyer/seller. I've bought/sold 7 times in about 15 years. On the buy side, Jim is the PERFECT combo of: completely digitally savvy (he will pull data all day long until you feel comfortable with your chosen house, area, school district, anticipated appreciation rate...anything!), he's super well respected and known in the area by other agents, an amazingly cool but strategic negotiator, is totally devoid of desperation for a sale/commission, and more.
Then once you get into contract phase, Donna literally handles every last and final detail in a concierge-like manner -- totally shielding you from the daily back and forth, noodling and annoyances of the buyer's requests. She solves it ALL; it's miraculous what that woman accomplishes over and above what is even expected in a buy/sell transaction.
On the sell side, Jim and Donna do the same, but even moreso. Donna in particular truly takes everything off your plate: she'll manage getting the house painted, the carpets replaced, she'll go on site (as she Jim both did for me when selling our rental properties) to work with the renters and make sure the house is ready to show -- freeing me to have to take time off of work to do so. They work with A+ integrity, too, so you know you are serving all parties fairly and lawfully throughout.
A home purchase/sale is the most considered you'll ever make. HIRE A SAVVY AGENT, not a friend!, and get what you need out of the transaction. Jim and Donna are our agents for life.
Ann Romanello
2019-04-06
Jim and Donna Klinge are by far the most professional, personable and responsive realtors I have ever worked with. They provide VIP concierge level service in every area of the process of selling your home. My home was marketed so successfully that we received an offer the day after our first and only open house. Thanks to Jim's pricing and negotiating, our house is now the highest sold in our community. Jim's vast experience means he has worked with several realtors and knows the market all over north county. Donna is AMAZING in processing everything in the transaction. She scheduled trades people to work on the house in preparation for the sale as well as the repairs needed before closing. She communicated clearly every step of the way about what would be happening. She took the weight off my shoulders for the whole process. I will always use Jim and Donna for my future real estate needs and I whole heartedly recommend them to anyone buying or selling a home.
zuser20160915180743456
2018-07-03
Jim and the team at Klinge Reality are without a doubt the best in the business! Not only was Jim helpful and extremely knowledgeable, he was patient and determined to help me find my first home. Jim and his team have been in the business for many years, and it shows. Jim is a wealth of knowledge and was my biggest proponent despite the temperature of the competitive market. I ended up getting the perfect property in my dream neighborhood all thanks to Jim. From the day my offer was accepted, Donna was a real lifesaver. She was extremely helpful, responsive, and knowledgeable when it came to every minute detail, and held my hand through the process. As a first time home buyer I had no idea what the process would entail, but Donna curtailed every concern I came across and made the escrow process feel seamless. Jim and Donna provided me the best home buying experience, and I am very grateful for all they did for me. It was truly a pleasure to work with Jim and Donna and I am already looking forward to the next time we work together!
melanielogue
2018-04-30
Review for Member: Richard Morgan
Richard is an amazing realtor! He has high integrity and genuinely cares about his clients and their needs. Richard paid close attention to what I was seeking in a home and was very patient in our search to find it. I would highly recommend Richard and will use him for future transactions. Truly a different kind of realtor experience!
shaunccornell
2018-03-28
Could not be happier with my experience with Jim and his team. He helped me sell a very unique and challenging property. Throughout the entire process he was always available, honest, transparent, trustworthy, and always put my interests as a seller first. A (rare) true professional! During close of escrow Jim went above and beyond to complete the deal. It would not have been possible without his experience, fantastic team, and pure dedication. Highly recommended!
Thanks Jim and Donna Klinge!
