NSDCC Active Listings By Size

Are you looking for a larger home?  If so, your search will be a little easier.

Here are the active listings of NSDCC detached homes based on size – 68% of the houses for sale are over 3,000sf:

Square Footage
# of NSDCC Houses For Sale
0-1,500sf
32
1,501-2,000
59
2,001-2,500
69
2,501-3,000
70
3,001-3,500
93
3,501-4,000
67
4,001-4,500
59
4,501-5,000
50
5,001+
220
Total
719

There are smaller, cheaper homes coming to market, but they sell so fast that buyers have to scramble to participate.  The casual observer struggles to get a good read on the market because the only listings laying around are those that have something really wrong with them (usually price).

Get good help!

P.S. NSDCC has a population of roughly 300,000.

Somebody Has To Do The Selling

The real estate space is crowded with advertisers hoping to hook potential buyers and sellers with the latest gimmick.

Because people don’t move much, they are inexperienced about selecting the best realtor.  Especially those who shop for an agent based on commission rate.

I Pay One is back in business, though it is a different crew this time.  The last time around, they had their own staff processing the sales – this time they are merely farming out the leads to realtors who pay a large initiation fee, plus monthly dues.

Realtors who join are told that they must present a 1% listing option, but it is permissible to upsell more expensive options too.  You can imagine how that meeting will sound, but you won’t get full service for the 1%.

Most realtors offer all options.

The 1% option is for the seller to find their own buyer, and the agent processes the paperwork – and most agents will do that for 1%.

If you want the agent to do more than process the paperwork, you have to investigate thoroughly.  A recent study showed that 66% of sellers hired the first realtor interviewed, so do your work in advance!

Bryan Ferry

The Coachella lineup is out, and Bryan Ferry will be there.  When I mentioned that I was kind of surprised, everyone at my house said, “who’s Bryan Ferry?”

You know – ‘Roxy Music’.

“Who’s Roxy Music?”

Here’s a sample:

Selling-Season Kickoff

The Spring Selling Season around here traditionally gets started right after the Super Bowl – let’s talk about it!

On Monday, February 3rd at 8:00pm we will be joined here by Rich Toscano and other local experts to discuss the real estate market!

Using Google Hangouts On Air here, you will be able to watch and listen to the panel discussion right here on the blog.  We will be taking your questions too – get in early by leaving them in the comment section below.

See you Monday!

San Diego Case-Shiller Nov. 2013

Our San Diego Case-Shiller Index has officially hit a flat spot.

The November, 2013 reading was 194.15, virtually the same as the previous month’s 194.07 number.

San Diego had the fourth-highest year-over-year total at +18.7%, but the majority of that frenzy-driven gain happened 8-12 calendar months ago (when appreciation was running 2%-3% per month).

Month
M-O-M
Y-O-Y
March ’13
+2.0%
+12.1%
April ’13
+2.8%
+14.7%
May ’13
+3.2%
+17.3%
June ’13
+2.8%
+19.3%
July ’13
+2.0%
+20.4%
August ’13
+1.8%
+21.5%
September ’13
+0.9%
+20.9%
October ’13
+0.3%
+19.7%
November ’13
+0.0%
+18.7%

The market has been cooling off for more than six months. The index has steadily declined since the May, 2013 reading, which had measured the gains from March, April, and May (purchasing decisions made a year ago).

Handling An Off-Market Sale

off-market saleOff-market sales have a nasty reputation, and deservedly so because the sellers usually get screwed by their listing agent who spoons the sale to their own buyer.

A buyer for an off-market sale is typically found from pre-marketing done by the listing agent prior to inputting the property onto our MLS.  The trouble starts when the sellers, in their excitement about having an offer, don’t verify that the listing has been exposed to the open market.  If the listing agent doesn’t present that as an option, and instead enriches him/herself unjustly, then they should be held liable for the resulting damages.

Here’s how I inadvertenly found myself in this situation, and how I handled it:

Inventory Watch – Calm

The number of new listings declined this week, compared to the previous week, which might make you think that buyers would be scrambling to secure something.

But with so many of the new listings being re-lists from last year, buyers aren’t going for it. Only 65 of the 325 NSDCC new listings this year have gone pending (20%).

North SD County’s Coastal Region (La Jolla-to-Carlsbad)

The UNDER-$800,000 Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
DOM
Avg SF
November 25
95
$376/sf
47
1,988sf
December 2
79
$371/sf
50
2,047sf
December 9
72
$383/sf
43
1,954sf
December 16
81
$378/sf
42
1,948sf
December 23
77
$374/sf
49
1,937sf
December 30
76
$373/sf
51
1,950sf
January 6
74
$370/sf
49
1,995sf
January 13
71
$381/sf
44
1,921sf
January 20
72
$384/sf
41
1,877sf
January 27
75
$399/sf
40
1,891sf

The $800,000 – $1,400,000 Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
DOM
Avg SF
November 25
245
$448/sf
61
2,856sf
December 2
239
$448/sf
64
2,851sf
December 9
226
$461/sf
65
2,812sf
December 16
211
$464/sf
66
2,794sf
December 23
197
$453/sf
73
2,813sf
December 30
173
$450/sf
78
2,821sf
January 6
170
$470/sf
65
2,757sf
January 13
168
$463/sf
59
2,764sf
January 20
174
$444/sf
51
2,882sf
January 27
166
$435/sf
52
2,902sf

(more…)

Perfect Storm?

When you hear the term ‘perfect storm’, you think of major calamities and people dying. The C.A.R. used the term to describe why pending sales dropped in December:

Pending home sales in California plummeted in December, falling 25.2 percent because of what the California Association of Realtors® (C.A.R.) called “a perfect storm” of circumstances.  The Realtor group said a shortage of homes for sale, rising interest rates and higher home prices sidelined many prospective buyers and drove pending sales down for the second straight month.

Theirs is a lazy analysis of the general market conditions.

The market is hot, and is being fueled by improved internet tools being deployed by homebuyers enabling them to act quickly when new listings hit the market.

As a result, the inventory of active (unsold) listings doesn’t grow.  It won’t grow until more sellers over-price their homes – and the supply of unsold homes increases.

We’ve been hearing about low inventory for the last couple of years – but it hasn’t stopped sales from growing.  Here are the annual NSDCC detached-home sales:

Year
# of Sales
Avg. $/sf
2009
2,223
$393/sf
2010
2,461
$380/sf
2011
2,562
$375/sf
2012
3,154
$378/sf
2013
3,211
$437/sf

‘Shortage of homes for sale’ is not an accurate reason for why pendings are dropping.  Buyers may not like the selection or pricing, but there are 726 NSDCC homes for sale.

The reason for pendings/sales to drop is because the prices are increasingly not right.  The December decline might be a precursor to buyers digging in about price, or about the holidays.

We’ll see in the next two months!

From their article: (click here to read)

CA months of inventory

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