No Appraisal Contingency

Sellers need a listing agent who can handle this effectively:

Becoming a homeowner may be getting more difficult for San Diego buyers.

With multiple offers and low housing inventory, sellers are starting to ask buyers to submit offers without an appraisal contingency, meaning the down payment must cover the difference between the offer and the appraisal, if the appraisal comes in low.

“It is becoming more and more common as the shortage of inventory and the increase in buyer demand has continued through the spring and buying season,” said Maria Peña-Morales, owner of Team Q of Re/Max Ranch & Beach.

intensefocus“Within the last month, I see it occur even more. The reason I think sellers are requesting it is because they want to remove any chance that the buyer will back out. If the buyers only qualify for a certain dollar amount and the appraisal comes in below, the seller could be stuck putting it back in the market.”

Joe Bertocchini, director of residential real estate at University of San Diego’s Burnham-Moores Center for Real Estate, said this action by the sellers could be a result of the selling “frenzy” that’s going on, with properties “flying off the shelf in less than 24 hours.”

“Sellers are looking for who the most probable close is,” Bertocchini said. “They look at the offers for who is paying all cash or closing with no contingencies, so they can close without any hiccups that might prohibit the sale of the property.”

Soledad Reaves, a real estate consultant with Re/Max Associates, said that in the past three months, four sellers have asked buyers to remove appraisal contingencies from their offers.

One of Reaves’ clients offered $285,000 for a condominium, which was high. The seller said there were plenty of offers and asked the buyers to remove the appraisal contingency.

“If you don’t do that, you’re out of the race,” Reaves said.

In that particular case, her client countered with a lower offer and removed the appraisal contingency. Another bidder offered a higher amount and her client’s offer wasn’t accepted.

In another case, a broker responded to an offer from one of Reaves’ clients, saying there were 14 offers on the property, and the price on the offers reached a level where the sellers were concerned it wouldn’t appraise. The broker informed Reaves of the requested purchase price and said the seller wanted a “significant” down payment and no appraisal contingency.

Once the trend caught on, it started becoming more prevalent, especially within the past month, Peña-Morales said.

“The more people who start to do it, the more it is continued,” Peña-Morales said.

“I think it’s pretty risky business if you’re going that route just because you’re not leaving yourself much of an out when going into escrow,” Bertocchini said.

But with so little inventory on the market and such tough competition, Reaves said buyers are willing to take that risk.

“Some people have been looking for quite some time. They’re tired of looking and are willing to pay the difference between the appraisal value and the offer,” Reaves said.

“I’m also seeing agents that, in their offers, write that they’re willing to pay $1,000 above any of the higher offers. It’s a very discouraging thing for buyers … who (don’t) have that much money, who are just starting to become homebuyers and they don’t have the cash, or have limited cash.”

Buyers who have been looking for a whole year are watching home values increase, interest rates remain low and monthly mortgages compete with what they pay in rent.

Bertocchini agreed that in this situation, most regular homebuyers are not able to move forward without that type of contingency, making this market more difficult for them. The competition with investors is “frustrating” for other qualified buyers, Peña-Morales said. And there’s no appraisal when there are cash buyers.

“The buyers on the market now are seeing multiple offers — 10, 15, 20 offers — primarily in the $400,000 to $800,000 range. And they’re getting beat out because someone else had the same dollar amount but was able to remove the appraisal contingency,” Peña-Morales said.

Peña-Morales said this also happened in 2005 and 2006, when people were willing to pay more than the asking price and remove the appraisal contingency, knowing they had to come up with additional cash.

“My concern is how it affects the housing market. Back in 2005, 2006, 2007, we began to see accelerating, and unnaturally accelerating, increases in sales prices and the appraisal value not being there,” Peña-Morales said.

Peña-Morales said she expects sellers to continue to ask for the appraisal contingency to be removed until there is more inventory on the market.

“Just because it’s relatively new that we’re seeing it, I don’t know if it’s something that’s going to continue,” Bertocchini said. “The way the market is behaving, I think anything is possible. I don’t think it’s bad for the entire market, but I will say it’s going to put an additional stress or additional frustration for individuals who are going to buy homes.”

From sddt.com

Distressed-Listings Decline 66%

Why would people list their home as a short-sale?

Because their lender is applying pressure to either make payments, short-sale, or be foreclosed. At least that is the old-fashioned way of banking.

It’s possible that, after months or years of delinquency, some might start making their payments again if they receive that magical loan-mod/principal reduction package. I just haven’t met anybody who has.

Maybe I’m a skeptic, but these stats make it appear that the banks aren’t applying much pressure – distressed listings are 1/3 of last year’s total:

NSDCC Detached-Home Listings, First Quarter

Listing Type 2012 2013
REO
56
20
Short-Sales
125
42
Regular
1,089
1,216
Totals
1,270
1,278

It might make sense for banks to be lenient in depressed areas where sales and prices are struggling, but around here we are starved for inventory. The policy is working so well that it may last a long time – the ultimate can-kicker!

San Diego County Filings

Meanwhile, another 85 new listings hit the MLS since our last reading, and we had 81 new pendings with a few cancelled/withdrawns – demand is raging:

Date NSDCC Active Listings Avg. LP $$/sf
Jan 14
649
$722/sf
Feb 4
667
$716/sf
Feb 10
679
$713/sf
Feb 25
678
$719/sf
March 6
727
$703/sf
March 11
744
$698/sf
March 16
746
$703/sf
March 23
755
$712/sf
March 31
752
$717/sf
April 5
780
$704/sf
April 11
780
$710/sf

This is the most important indicator to watch – if the active inventory starts to grow, it means buyers are backing off.

More At Sundown

Here are two thoughts about the market.

1. Comparable sales are a snapshot in time, and a result of many variables coming together at that precise moment.  Don’t get too attached to the comps – they are only a guidepost for how much the next property might get.

2. Using a family friend to be your realtor can destroy a friendship if they don’t live up to your expectations.  Mentioned is a website to check the sales history of an agent, but when I checked mine it was hard to figure their time period – I think it is 24 months:

Buyers: Mustard Needed

Well-wishers have been checking in over the last few days after seeing the BW exposure.  Most give me the elbow and some version of “Boy, I bet you’re digging this market now!”.

It’s not as rosy as it might appear, especially for the buyers who hope to make a calm, rational decision based on observable value.

Offers tendered on behalf of different buyers over the last couple of days:

  • Offered 4% under list price – listing agent wouldn’t counter.
  • Offered 5% over list price – no counter or highest-and-best round, just the Dear John letter:  “The offer that came through was quite extraordinary”.
  • Offered 7% over list – lost.

True, these are desirable properties which deserve attention.  But the competition is fierce, and may be ramping up.

Here are detached-home listing stats for three selected areas:

Carmel Valley – The higher-end of 92130 looks like a robust, healthy market.  The Under-$1M market looks like it’s on fire though, with 2.2x as many pendings as actives:

Under $1,000,000

ACT: 19

PEND: 42

2013 SOLDS: 65

Over $1,000,000

ACT: 56

PEND: 46

2013 SOLDS: 52

Encinitas – The in-between market looks identical to CV, with the lower-end market having 2.5x as many pendings as actives!

Under $1,000,000

ACT: 20

PEND: 45

2013 SOLDS: 66

Over $1,000,000

ACT: 69

PEND: 30

2013 SOLDS: 39

SE Carlsbad, 92009 – A very attractive area where you can still buy newer tract houses for less than $300/sf – probably no surprise that there are 1.8x as many pendings as actives under $1,000,000!

Under $1,000,000

ACT: 37

PEND: 67

2013 SOLDS: 113

Over $1,000,000

ACT: 33

PEND: 20

2013 SOLDS: 19

It’s not that there is no inventory – these combined sales are 20% higher than last year’s count.  There just aren’t many unsold houses laying around, and virtually none of the well-priced, quality homes we all desire!

More From Businessweek

Karen at Businessweek added a supplement to the story:

jim in his favorite pose

Jim the Realtor, a/k/a Jim Klinge, is known for his video chronicles of the Southern California housing bust. Now, as I report in this week’s issue of the magazine, his camera is capturing a different story: rising prices and bidding wars. Here are his tips for getting the best deals in today’s market:

Experience counts. Sellers “should pick an agent based on how many sales they have closed in the last 12 months,” he says.

“That’s the best indicator of how they can navigate this market. You don’t have to be a superstar, but you need to know your way around and close at least one a month.”

Don’t get greedy. Klinge insists that the very best offers come right after a property is listed.

“People are used to the Internet, Amazon, and buying what they want, when they want it,” he says. Potential buyers know about new listings instantly and want to buy quickly.

He says some agents get “greedy” waiting for better offers after the first wave. In the meantime, potential buyers lose interest, find something else, or feel less pressure to raise their offers.

Read more here:

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-04-08/home-buying-and-selling-tips-from-a-pro

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