Well-wishers have been checking in over the last few days after seeing the BW exposure.  Most give me the elbow and some version of “Boy, I bet you’re digging this market now!”.

It’s not as rosy as it might appear, especially for the buyers who hope to make a calm, rational decision based on observable value.

Offers tendered on behalf of different buyers over the last couple of days:

  • Offered 4% under list price – listing agent wouldn’t counter.
  • Offered 5% over list price – no counter or highest-and-best round, just the Dear John letter:  “The offer that came through was quite extraordinary”.
  • Offered 7% over list – lost.

True, these are desirable properties which deserve attention.  But the competition is fierce, and may be ramping up.

Here are detached-home listing stats for three selected areas:

Carmel Valley – The higher-end of 92130 looks like a robust, healthy market.  The Under-$1M market looks like it’s on fire though, with 2.2x as many pendings as actives:

Under $1,000,000

ACT: 19

PEND: 42

2013 SOLDS: 65

Over $1,000,000

ACT: 56

PEND: 46

2013 SOLDS: 52

Encinitas – The in-between market looks identical to CV, with the lower-end market having 2.5x as many pendings as actives!

Under $1,000,000

ACT: 20

PEND: 45

2013 SOLDS: 66

Over $1,000,000

ACT: 69

PEND: 30

2013 SOLDS: 39

SE Carlsbad, 92009 – A very attractive area where you can still buy newer tract houses for less than $300/sf – probably no surprise that there are 1.8x as many pendings as actives under $1,000,000!

Under $1,000,000

ACT: 37

PEND: 67

2013 SOLDS: 113

Over $1,000,000

ACT: 33

PEND: 20

2013 SOLDS: 19

It’s not that there is no inventory – these combined sales are 20% higher than last year’s count.  There just aren’t many unsold houses laying around, and virtually none of the well-priced, quality homes we all desire!

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