The USS Carl Vinson returned to its home port of San Diego this summer after a lengthy deployment in the Gulf region. Here is a great video with interviews of crew members – thank you for your service!
Carl Vinson returned to San Diego on 4 June 2015. Over the course of the deployment, supporting strike operations in Iraq and Syria, CVW-17 successfully flew 12,300 sorties, including 2,382 combat missions and dropped more than half a million pounds (230 tons) of ordnance against ISIS.
On 14 August 2015, Carl Vinson began a planned incremental availability (PIA) period at Naval Air Station North Island. The ship is receiving more than $300 million worth of improvements over the next six months during this modernisation.
The San Diego lower-end market has been red hot this year!
No big surprise – when mortgage rates are in the 3s, houses priced under $500,000 have monthly payments that are similar to their rents.
But the high-end market is holding up well too, suggesting that buyers will find a way to pay more for the better-quality areas. Last year got a little sluggish, but as rates dipped back into the 3s, the buyers kept coming:
Interest rates have been moving higher for the last six days, and have priced in the 1/4% increase that the Fed is expected to do next month. If the Fed does finally bump the Fed Funds rate, there should be some relief that’s it’s over, but don’t expect that lenders will give much back.
Mortgage rates continued pressing into the highestlevels since July–themselves the highest levels of the year. In just over a week, the most frequently quoted conventional 30yr fixed rate has moved from 3.75 to a range of 4.0-4.125%. Most lenders are quoting the same contract rates as Friday, with the weakness instead seen in the form of higher upfront costs.
What’s with all the drama? In a word: the Fed. There had been some remaining disagreement about when the Fed was most likely to begin raising rates after nearly 7 years of the record low 0-.25% target. Last Friday’s jobs report helped get everyone on the same page. Unfortunately, the consensus is that the hike is all the more likely. While mortgage rates are not directly linked to the Fed Funds Rate, most interest rates tend to rise when expectations for a Fed rate hike increase.
When rates rise as much as they have and for as many consecutive days as they have, it becomes increasingly likely that they’ll take a break and bounce back somewhat. If you wait to lock, you will feel like a genius if that happens, but you could be looking at significantly higher costs if it doesn’t. In this case, the risk of loss is greater than the potential reward for timing the bounce correctly. Lenders aren’t likely to give back meaningful amounts of the ground we just lost unless the bounce is sustained and substantial.
“Borrowers and loan officers hoping for a fast rebound from Friday’s sell off were disappointed today, as we lost further ground and rates rose slightly. Since October 27th, treasury yields have soared from 2.03% to 2.35%. MBS lost roughly 150 bps during the same period, and our “sub 4%” rates are in the rear view mirror at the moment. At some point, we’ll level off, and perhaps even undo some of the carnage, but until we do, I’ll be advising locking early rather than risking further losses.”
It wouldn’t take much for homebuyer demand to soften a bit. Higher rates, fewer foreign buyers, the lack of good buys, and the holiday malaise could send the market into a slumber for the next 2-3 months.
We are wrapping up two full years of tracking the inventory each Monday. The three lower-priced categories are looking like they did in 2013 – about 10% lower than last year. The exception is the high-enders, which is a mess.
There are 391 houses listed for sale priced over $2,400,000, and 20 sold last month. Buyers should be picky!
Click on the link below for the complete NSDCC active-inventory data:
If you don’t have to sell and just want to test the market, is there any harm in listing high? Just because there is no urgency doesn’t mean some nice young family with 2.2 kids won’t come along and love it like you do.
Around 60% to 65% of the listings sell each year.
I like those odds, and I’m happy to list your home and shoot for the lucky sale. As long as prices keep going up, it’s possible!
Here are the potential pitfalls:
The Best Buyers Will Pass – The motivated buyers have seen the comparable listings nearby, and they know the market as well as the agents (or better!). You are left with the casual, inexperienced buyers – the ones who are most likely to fall out of escrow.
The Best AgentsWill Pass – Buyers working with great agents will get talked out of paying too much.
Lowball Offers – Don’t be insulted, you knew from the beginning you were pushing the price. You don’t have to take them – but while you have a buyer at the table, you may want to review the results so far and decide if now is the time to make a deal.
Your House Will Be Used to Sell Others – Regardless of your list-price accuracy, you will get lookers – especially when the listing is fresh on the market. Sellers get encouraged, and think a sale must be imminent. But you don’t know if your house is just being used by agents to sell better-priced homes nearby.
New Listings Will Undercut Yours – Neighbors will go to school on your price. When they see that your house is not selling, they will price theirs under yours.
Showings Are a Hassle – The inconvenience of having strangers running through your house with little notice gets old. Keeping the house clean and having to leave the house isn’t convenient – especially if you have kids.
Price is Intoxicating – The higher you go, the drunker you get. Your ego refuses to back down, in spite of the overwhelming evidence stacking up all around.
One-third of the sellers fall into this predicament, and never sell.
For those that don’t mind the risk, let’s go!
Key point – you need a great listing agent. The buyers are skittish, the agents are inexperienced, and the appraisal will take a miracle. Just because you aren’t that motivated doesn’t mean you should compromise on who you hire as your listing agent – Get Good Help!
The process of selling a house has many variables – let’s keep examining.
What were the comps used to determine the price?
The most important thing about evaluating the comps is to see them through the eyes of the buyers. I cannot stress enough how critical this is to selecting an attractive price – every seller has a high opinion about their house, but they’re not the ones buying it. Today’s buyers are looking for any reason not to buy, and they are being conservative.
Consider those thoughts as we progress here:
A. The last sale of this model closed for $612,000 in June, 2014:
It had been moderately upgraded to sell, and you could say that the backyard was a more normal setting. My listing on Chaco had superior upgrades, which makes buyers feel good, but they prefer to pay about the same as the last guy for them. This is where over-improving your house for the neighborhood can get you into trouble, price-wise – you’re not going to get a dollar-for-dollar return for the good stuff.
A discerning buyer would probably call them even at best, because they will be tempted to ignore it altogether because of it being old news The San Diego Case-Shiller Index has gone up 6% since, so let’s adjust accordingly, even though no appraiser will use it (they want/need comps from the last six months).
Comp #1 adjusted value = $648,720.
B. This is a 5% larger one-story model in Crestmont that closed for $612,000:
The original list price was $645,000, but after three weeks they put it on the range $615,000 – $645,000. Eighteen days later, the listing agent found his own buyer who paid $612,000 cash, and it closed on September 16th.
The house only had a couple of upgrades, and my listing had at least $100,000 of improvements. We already mentioned that you don’t get full value, but for the sake of evaluating I’ll assign a 50% credit. It means we need to deduct $50,000 off this comp – but then add back 10% because it was a one-story plan which have been selling for a premium over two-story plans because of the older folks. The ‘cash’ purchase would indicate these buyers were probably elderly on this sale, and they probably ignored or didn’t realize that nobody else was willing to pay $615,000 for this house so they may have been able to grind out a better deal.
Buyers evaluating this sale as a comp may not think that hard, but as a listing agent trying to factor in every variable, I need to consider that the $612,000 sales price here could have been optimistic. But I’ll subtract the $50,000 for improvements and add 10% for one-story.
Comp #2 adjusted value = $623,200.
C. Same one-story model as above that closed for $605,000 two weeks ago:
This house was in original condition, so I’m going to subtract a little more – $70,000 – and add back the same 10% even though this was an estate sale by the original owners who paid $150,000 in 1988. The seller was recently widowed and didn’t try too hard to sell, and let’s face it, a quick $605,000 was a big win. It was listed on the range $590,000 to $605,000, and the buyer went direct to the listing agent, but we can call it a mostly-retail sale of a house in original condition.
Comp #3 adjusted value = $595,500.
There are two pending comps to consider too:
D. This 1,486sf one-story with $50,000 in improvements was listed for $635,000 and went pending in five days:
F. This 1,681sf two-story house has $120,000 in improvements with pool and backs to the canyon. It sold for a whopping $730,000, which was above the top of the range ($699-$729) in six days:
My seller has taken a new job out of the area, and wanted a realistic assessment of the market. Many sellers would ignore the rest, and jump on the $730,000 as proof that more buyers will come along and pay the same. But given the rest of the evidence, a normal buyer will throw out the high sale and use the rest as the accurate market data.
The realistic range for my listing was $600,000 to $650,000, and because we had the 100,000 in improvements it deserved to be at the top of the range.
I didn’t have a problem with angryPQneighbor expecting a higher sale – I had every intention of selling it for more. My seller saw my reasoning that pricing the home attractively would create more action and urgency early on, and create a frenzy-like bidding war.
Other Factors:
1. Zillow reported lower school scores on the subject property’s zillow page. I addressed them in my remarks, and included snips of the actual scores of 10 for each school in my photo galleries. I think that lends respect to the equation in the buyers’ minds.
2. The zestimate for my listing was $630,000, and after I inputted my listing there, they dropped the zestimate to $614,749. You have to anticipate that bad things will happen that are out of your control. But price fixes everything.
3. Zillow also has this new local market meter that is positive for Rancho Penasquitos in the small print, but the ‘Cool’ and blue color could dissuade buyers from looking at it much harder:
4. The biggest factor in my mind was the experience of the buyers’ agents. Any agent can handle writing an offer on an attractively-priced listing, but the houses priced too high tend to befuddle all but the best agents (who are good enough to lowball you anyway).
It was competitive to the end between the six offers – five submitted their highest-and best offer, and it was close. We took the buyer represented by an agent who had closed 32 sales in the last 12 months. The other agents averaged 8 sales in the last year, which was still pretty good. But if we hit any bumps in the road, I want to take my chances with the most experienced agent.
We still have a long way to go to the finish line. But this is the type of start every seller should appreciate – you got a good price, the hassle of showing the house was over in 6 days, and the chances of it closing are pretty good when the buyers knows he beat out five other contenders!
Yesterday this comment was left by angryPQneighbor:
Why did you list this one so cheap? The same model sold almost a year and a half ago in a bidding war over $610K!
We are listed for $639,000 in most places, and on the range $619,000- $639,000 in the MLS. He/she didn’t say what they thought the price should be, just that my price was wrong. Do we expect double-digit appreciation every year?
They haven’t been following the pricing discussion we’ve had on the blog here, or considered that, given the current market conditions, it is better to price attractively to take advantage of the urgency that a new listing enjoys – at least for the first week or two before going stale.
The attractive list price makes the listing stand out, and grabs the attention of the buyers – have you noticed that most listings aren’t priced attractively? We were on the open market for six days (including Halloween), and here’s how the market responded:
Trulia:
Redfin:
Zillow:
The frenzy died a couple of years ago. Why?
Because the prices stopped looking attractive. But using the same pricing principles, a mini-frenzy was created here.
We received six written offers!
However, they were all within the range. Is that it? Do you just select one?
No – we’re not done yet!
I carefully and respectfully caused each bidder to consider going higher on price, and we ended up over $650,000!
Tom Waits was born in Pomona and grew up in National City and Chula Vista – he attended Hilltop High School in 1965. Here he’s singing his opening track from his debut studio album released in 1972 (and was also covered by the Eagles):
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We sold a home with Jim and Donna and from beginning to end they were consummate professionals. Their initial walk through the property resulted in a list of items to be repaired or updated. They supplied a list of vendors and job quotes to do the repairs and updates. We originally wanted to sell ‘as is’ and just get it over with. They gave us a selling price for ‘as is’ and options for doing a few updates/repairs to doing it all with the selling price for each option. We agreed to do all they suggested and we sold for the exact price they predicted. For every dollar spent we got back more than $2 back in the selling price. And they got that price in a rising interest rate environment! Donna and Jim are extremely detailed and guide you through ever aspect of the sale. There were no surprises thanks to their guidance. We couldn’t be more pleased with their representation.
Thank you Donna and Jim,
Jerry and Mary
Heather Quejada
March 27, 2025
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We have known Jim & Donna Klinge for over a dozen years, having met them in Carlsbad where our children went to the same school. As long time North County residents, it was a no- brainer for us to have the Klinges be our eyes and ears for San Diego real estate in general and North County in particular. As my military career caused our family to move all over the country and overseas to Asia, Europe and the Pacific, we trusted Jim and Donna to help keep our house in Carlsbad rented with reliable and respectful tenants for over 10 years.
Naturally, when the time came to sell our beloved Carlsbad home to pursue a rural lifestyle in retirement out of California, we could think of no better team to represent us than Jim and Donna. They immediately went to work to update our house built in 2004 to current-day standards and trends — in 2 short months they transformed it into a literal modern-day masterpiece. We trusted their judgement implicitly and followed 100% of their recommended changes. When our house finally came on the market, there was a blizzard of serious interest, we had multiple offers by the third day and it sold in just 5 days after a frenzied bidding war for 20% above our asking price! The investment we made in upgrades recommended by Jim and Donna yielded a 4-fold return, in the process setting a new high water mark for a house sold in our community.
In our view, there are no better real estate professionals in all of San Diego than Jim and Donna Klinge. Buying or selling, you must run and beg Jim and Donna Klinge to represent you! Our family will never forget Jim, Donna, and their whole team at Compass — we are forever grateful to them.
Lou F
March 27, 2025
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WeI had the pleasure of working with Klinge Realty Group to sell our home in Carmel Valley, and I cannot recommend them highly enough!
Jim and Donna demonstrated exceptional professionalism, offering expert guidance on market conditions and pricing strategy, which resulted in a quick and successful sale.
Communication was prompt and we were well-informed throughout the entire process.
For anyone looking for a dedicated and knowledgeable real estate team, look no further!
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William Sams
March 25, 2025
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Donna and Jim Klinge of Klinge Realty Group have our highest possible recommendation. From Donna and Jim’s first visit to our house through closing their advice and counsel was candid and honest in all dealings. They kept us fully informed throughout the process. The house sold less than three days after listing with a two-week closing. My wife and I have sold several houses during our lives. This was by far the best experience. Klinge Reality is a premium service realtor. You can’t make a better choice for someone to sell your home fast and for top dollar.
Emily Hernandez
December 29, 2024
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Donna and Jim provided exceptional support and professionalism throughout the entire process. We couldn't have been happier with their efforts. They made our house shine, and thanks to their expertise, it sold above the listing price in the very first weekend! Truly a fantastic experience from start to finish.
Jesus Adrian Sahagun
November 11, 2024
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This year has been difficult on our family, mainly due to having to sell our home. Thankfully we knew God had a plan for us and working with the Klinge team was a key part of it. It was an obvious decision to work with them again after such an amazing experience when purchasing the same home we needed to sell. The challenge was, how will we do this in so little time with so much going on? Jim and Donna held our hand every step of the way. Whenever an unexpected issue arose they found and provided a solution. Never once did we feel pressured to make a decision and the Klinges were always reassuring after providing the information that the decision was ours to make. Despite the curve balls, they never panicked and exemplified the “can do” attitude, making us feel optimistic and taken care of. Their expertise and professionalism was superb. But of all the reasons to work with the Klinges, the most impactful and valuable is their compassion and genuine care for their clients. We pray that we can one day purchase our forever home and you better believe that Jim and Donna will be representing us - as long as they will have us of course. Thank you again Klinge team! Your execution, experience, and care are unmatched.
SABIHA PASHA
July 23, 2024
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Jim and Donna were fantastic! Jim understanding my needs, recommending potential places, pointing out the pros and cons of each property was invaluable. Then when the offer was accepted Donna’s organized guidance through the inspections, paperwork etc made the whole process seem effortless.
So grateful that I had them on my side!
Anu Koberg
July 13, 2024
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We first found Jim through his blog at bubbleinfo.com, which really showcased his knowledge of SoCal real estate. Since then we've done three transactions with Jim and Donna, and they are an incredible full service agency, with Jim's deep market insight and Donna's deft contract and project management. We trust them implicitly in their analysis and strategy, which is based on years of experience. They're always available and on top of things, and we strongly recommend them to anyone.
Bjorn Isachsen
July 10, 2024
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The Good
The Klinge Realty Group operates like a finely tuned machine, with a very personal touch. We contacted them on a Sunday and they were talking to us about our family and our needs on our living room couch the following day. They carefully listened to us and worked with us to identify the best and quickest path to listing within 2 weeks to take advantage of the low inventory conditions in our South Carlsbad neighborhood. They knew our tract specifically and had many previous sales there over the years - they came prepared with a thorough analysis of comparative sales and recommended a pricing strategy that they felt confident would yield offers the first weekend on the market.
The Great
Over the next two weeks Donna coordinated a range of vendors who she knew from experience could get the preparation to list work we needed done on time and with high quality. Our light tune-up involved excellent experiences with their stagers, landscapers, contractors, electricians, and plumbers. Throughout this period Donna's daily communication was clear, concise, and responsive. Any time we had questions Donna picked up the phone or texted immediately - but almost always, she answered our questions before we even knew we had them.
The Outstanding
We had a tricky situation with a shared fence that could have delayed our escrow. Donna used superb mediation skills to negotiate the terms of replacement and was personally on site with the fence contractor to make sure everything went smoothly. The fence looks great and escrow closed on time.
The Truly Exceptional
Our house came on the market on a Wednesday and between then and Monday morning Jim was personally at all three open houses. He was in constant communication explaining potential buyer reaction and strength. As he predicted offers began to come in on Saturday and each one was incrementally higher than the last. At the end we had 5 offers, 4 of which were over list, and the final accepted offer was $100,000 over list. In addition to being over list it included rent back terms that met our needs.
The Recommendation
For all of these reasons we would strongly recommend The Klinge Team to anyone wanting to sell in North County Coastal San Diego. I had been reading Jim's bubbleinfo.com blog for 15 years and knew when the time came to sell that he would be our first call. Jim Klinge is not your standard realtor. He is keenly aware of market conditions and sales strategies. And, works his tail off - though not as hard as Donna . At this point he's gone from realtor to friend and I plan to have him over to grill and chill at our new place to talk real estate, but also just about life and raising kids in San Diego. He's more interested in relationships than his sales numbers - and that's why his sales numbers are so high. We have already recommended the Klinge's to some close friends and another successful sale is on deck right around the corner...
Chris Shea
June 21, 2024
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We recently had the pleasure of working with Jim and Donna from Klinge Realty Group to sell our house, and we couldn't be more satisfied with the experience. From the initial meeting, they listened attentively to our needs and provided invaluable guidance on specific improvements to get our home market ready.
Their responsiveness throughout the entire process was truly impressive. Anytime we had questions or concerns, they were quick to address them, ensuring we felt comfortable and informed every step of the way. What stood out the most was their team and extensive network of tradespeople, which made addressing any necessary repairs or updates seamless and stress-free.
Thanks to their expertise and dedication, our house sold quickly and at a great price. We highly recommend Jim and Donna to anyone looking to buy or sell a home. They are a fantastic team who truly care about their clients and deliver exceptional results.
