Adding An ADU
The tiny-house options available for less than $50,000 on Amazon are intriguing!
Link to tiny homes on AmazonRural Towns in California
$75 Million in Del Mar
La Costa Golf Frontage!
Check out our new listing adjacent to the 4th hole at La Costa Golf Course! A classic old Hollywood custom home with large rooms and high ceilings that add charm and character to the single-level experience with primary suite and all living areas on the 1st floor! Add your final touches to this 3 br/3 ba, 2,887sf estate and create a golf showcase! Two others on the course now listed for $3,000,000+ and my listing is priced at only $1,995,000 – wow! Open 12-2pm on Friday and Saturday!
https://www.compass.com/listing/2804-la-costa-avenue-carlsbad-ca-92009/1709962586763150545/
Trump and Real Estate
Realtor.com, owned by News Corporation, has thoughts on how Trump will affect the real estate market:
On the campaign trail, Trump had blamed rising home prices on a surge of illegal immigration during the Biden administration. He also claimed that he would somehow lower mortgage rates if elected, although presidents do not control mortgage rates.
Here’s a look at some of Trump’s signature policy proposals, and what impact they might have on the housing market.
Frenzy Monitor
The number of active listings between La Jolla and Carlsbad is 24% higher than they were last year at this time, and the pendings are +27%, which indicates that the demand has been strong enough to pick up the additional supply.
But it has to be at its limit, doesn’t it?
If the supply stays about the same in 2025, then sales and pricing should stay about the same – this has been the equilibrium year, and it could continue indefinitely as long as rates stay in a range.
But if the supply rises another 20% next year, it would make sense that there would need to be some give on the other end – either sales will plummet as buyers detect a change, and/or prices get softer.
Those listings that are languishing on the market are indicating one thing – they are inferior in some way. The condition isn’t good enough, the floor plan is wacky, or the location isn’t great. All of which price can fix!
Trendy Tuesday With Kayla
Hey everyone! Kayla Klinge here, reporting live from New York City!
For this week’s Trendy Tuesday, I wanted to touch on an interior design trend. The paint manufacturer Benjamin Moore has announced Cinnamon Slate as its 2025 Color of the Year.
Cinnamon Slate is “a delicate mix of heathered plum and velvety brown,” which is both relaxed and elegant. I’m not shocked that the 2025 color of the year has a brown tone because we are seeing SO much brown in fashion these days. I personally have been drawn to more brown clothing over my go-to black attire!
I also never used to be a big fan of purple, but it’s been growing on me the past year. I have a toiletry bag that’s a Cinnamon Slate-like color and I’ve used it for SO many trips, I need to ask for a new one for Christmas!
If it were my home, I would use Cinnamon Slate in a living room or cozy den. It’s a more dramatic/moody color, so I don’t think I would want it all over my home. But I think in one room, it would make a statement!
NSDCC Listing History
Sure, there have been 15% more listings this year than in 2023, but let’s keep it in perspective.
We’re just catching up, aren’t we?
Through the pandemic, there was no surprise that people would be reluctant to have strangers in their house. Some of the potential sellers who waited through the covid era are probably adding pent-up supply to this year’s count.
If there were another +15% more houses for sale next year, it would be dramatic, but only because we like drama. Historically, there has been 4,000+ listings in the first ten months of the year, so if we have 3,074 next year (+15%) it won’t be setting any records. Instead, it will still be well under the normal count.
The most interesting year on this graph is 2006.
The part-time blogger guy had started sounding the alarm in September, 2005 that the market was in trouble (it was obvious) and there was a surge of listings in 2006 as more than the usual amount of sellers scrambled to get out.
Next year may be like 2006.
There are several reasons why more people will be selling their home in 2025. It can be summed up by saying we’re overdue for a surge! It just might be similar to 2006 when several different categories of people decide to sell all at the same time, and we have a one-off surge. One big year of excess inventory.
There is one fact we can count on: If a homeowner thinks it’s a bad market, they won’t sell.
So instead of a protracted deluge of listings, instead I’m thinking we might have a big surge for one year, and then it will be over because most sellers won’t like the idea of taking less, and would rather wait longer.
It’s my latest hypothesis – let’s see where it goes!
More on Months-Of-Supply
Bill is one of the few bloggers still around who comments daily on housing and the economy. Read his full article at his free substack here:
https://open.substack.com/pub/calculatedrisk/p/watch-months-of-supply-76b
He makes an interesting comparison between June and December.
It looks like this will be the first year in the last eight that could have a higher months-of-supply reading in December than in June. If so, it means there will be more than the usual active (unsold) inventory carrying over into 2025.
It’s been steady between La Jolla and Carlsbad lately, using the average number of actives for the month:
NSDCC Months-Of-Supply
June, 2024: 470/153 = 3.07
October, 2024: 470/165 = 2.85
Last month, there was a flurry of sales that keeps the ratio down for now, but the number of December sales should be quite lower. It looks like we could enter the new year with 400+ unsold listings, and I sugggested here that the healthy months-of-supply (active listings divided by monthly sales) is around 3.0. It looks like it the actual ratio will be closer to 4.0 by the end of the year.
Bill suggests that it will cause soft prices. I agree.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Lance says the SD inventory is +63% YoY – the highest of any metro on his list. Yikes!
Becoming A Realtor Today
A reader asked about my thoughts on becoming a realtor today – my response:
I’ll start with the basics to see what you think.
Being a real estate licensee is one thing. Being a successful salesperson is something different, and what I’ll address here.
Sales has its own skill set. There are things to learn and practice to be successful at it. People tend to wander into real estate sales because it is so easy to get a license. Nobody tells them to get sales training, and as a result, most leave the business within 1-2 years.
To know if you can be a successful salesperson, consider the following:
A. Are you comfortable talking to family and friends about their housing needs?
B. Are you comfortable talking to strangers about their housing needs?
Everyone likes talking about real estate. But people are more guarded and private than ever, so approaching them and getting them to talk about THEIR real estate needs can be uncomfortable for many agents. If you are a good-looking charismatic type, then you have an advantage but it still takes guts to continuously talk to people every day about their needs, and how you can help them.
Everyone knows at least three realtors already, so you can expect rejection. Can you live with that? Do you want to be successful bad enough to power through and not let rejection bug you?
Still feeling excited about being a successful salesperson? Then consider the downfalls:
Paydays are inconsistent, and you can go months without earning a check. Having financial stability besides your real estate pay is helpful.
It is a 24/7 market, so most of the time you will be on duty seven days a week.
Failure is part of the learning curve. Being warm and cuddly with failure and rejection is a real plus.
Other agents will screw you over, and many times it’s their own blundering incompetence that causes it. Accept that tensions are elevated and quick decisions are being made by principals and agents without thinking through all the variables.
Being motivated by the money helps. If you want/need to earn a big income every year, then it’s available and you can let it drive you.
Still interested? Ok, great – I suggest that all agents do the following:
1. Get Sales Training.
I did the Dale Carnegie sales training early on, and it was the best thing I ever did. They teach you the basic skill set for sales, and also have you go practice the techniques as part of the course.
2. Work with a Mentor.
All of the big brokerages offer a mentorship program where you work with an experienced agent. Most of the mentors have given up selling themselves, so they tend to be in the background to answer questions, not to give hard-core training. If you can find one that does, then your learning curve will be expedited.
3. Identify How and Where to Get The Business.
It isn’t going to come to you – at least not until you have a lot of experience. This is an active, not passive, job and being a smart go-getter is required for maximum results.
4. Work Effectively with a CRM.
Client Relationship Management supported by a robust software system is vital. Compass is spending $100 million per year on our platform, and I think we can say that we have the best in the business.
I think the home-selling business will shrink steadily from here on out. There are at least twice as many agents as needed and many will just age out over the next 5-10 years. Those who are left will be smart to utilize all of the internet tools as our society continues to put more faith in their hand-held device than the experts in the field. Being tech-savvy will be a requirement for all agents!
As part of our succession plan, we are going to add more agents to our group. If everything above sounds fantastic, contact me today and we can discuss you joining our team!
