Sure, there have been 15% more listings this year than in 2023, but let’s keep it in perspective.
We’re just catching up, aren’t we?
Through the pandemic, there was no surprise that people would be reluctant to have strangers in their house. Some of the potential sellers who waited through the covid era are probably adding pent-up supply to this year’s count.
If there were another +15% more houses for sale next year, it would be dramatic, but only because we like drama. Historically, there has been 4,000+ listings in the first ten months of the year, so if we have 3,074 next year (+15%) it won’t be setting any records. Instead, it will still be well under the normal count.
The most interesting year on this graph is 2006.
The part-time blogger guy had started sounding the alarm in September, 2005 that the market was in trouble (it was obvious) and there was a surge of listings in 2006 as more than the usual amount of sellers scrambled to get out.
Next year may be like 2006.
There are several reasons why more people will be selling their home in 2025. It can be summed up by saying we’re overdue for a surge! It just might be similar to 2006 when several different categories of people decide to sell all at the same time, and we have a one-off surge. One big year of excess inventory.
There is one fact we can count on: If a homeowner thinks it’s a bad market, they won’t sell.
So instead of a protracted deluge of listings, instead I’m thinking we might have a big surge for one year, and then it will be over because most sellers won’t like the idea of taking less, and would rather wait longer.
It’s my latest hypothesis – let’s see where it goes!
