Zillow Local Forecasts

The Zillow 1-Year Forecasted Values are down 1-2 points from their previous guesses last month, but still very strong. This is their third consecutive month with similar forecasts:

NW Carlsbad, 92008:

SE Carlsbad, 92009:

NE Carlsbad, 92010:

SW Carlsbad, 92011:

Carmel Valley, 92130:

Del Mar, 92014:

Encinitas, 92024:

La Jolla:

Rancho Santa Fe, 92067:

For those who are steeped in real estate history, it’s hard to comprehend how prices could increase 25% to 30% this year – to think pricing could go up ANOTHER 20% next year is straining the brain!

I think it will happen, and be accomplished by mid-summer.

Hidden Gems

We’ll be in Tucson next month, and I’ll be doing my own investigation!

In 2021, single-family existing-home prices rose at the fastest pace in five decades at an average year-over-year pace of 18%, driven by strong job growth, historically low mortgage rates, a post-pandemic recovery in household formation, and inadequate housing construction and pandemic-induced supply bottlenecks. At the metro area level, the differences in price appreciation were heavily driven by job growth and by businesses and people moving into the area, especially among workers with the ability to work fully remotely.

Are there markets where home prices are still undervalued relative to the market fundamentals’ underlying home prices? In its latest report, 2022 Housing Market Hidden Gems, the National Association of REALTORS® identified the top 10 markets with strong underlying housing market fundamentals but where home prices are still undervalued and relatively affordable. As such, these hidden gem markets are expected to experience stronger price appreciation in 2022.

In alphabetical order, the hidden gem markets are as follows:

  • Dallas-Fort Worth, Texas
  • Daphne-Fairhope-Farley, Alabama
  • Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, Arkansas-Missouri
  • Huntsville, Alabama
  • Knoxville, Tennessee
  • Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, Florida
  • Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, Florida
  • San Antonio-New Braunfels, Texas
  • Spartanburg, South Carolina
  • Tucson, Arizona

Read more here:

https://www.nar.realtor/blogs/economists-outlook/top-10-hidden-gems-of-the-housing-market-in-2022

Mortgage Relief

Those who still think we have a foreclosure event in our future are unfamiliar with how the rules have changed in California. There’s never been a better time to be a deadbeat:

The United States Department of the Treasury has approved California’s plan to provide $1 billion in mortgage relief, clearing the way for the California Mortgage Relief Plan to provide help to as many as 40,000 struggling homeowners, according to a statement from Gov. Gavin Newsom’s office. “We are committed to supporting those hit hardest by the pandemic, and that includes homeowners who have fallen behind on their housing payments,” Newsom said in a statement. “No one should have to live in fear of losing the roof over their head, so we’re stepping up to support struggling homeowners to get them the resources they need to cover past due mortgage payments.” California already has provided renters and landlords with assistance, he noted.

“Now, with our California Mortgage Relief Program, we are extending that relief to homeowners,” he said. The program will help homeowners make past due housing payments — to a maximum of $80,000 per household — by making a direct payment to the mortgage servicers.

The funding, which is allocated through the federal American Rescue Plan Act’s Homeowner Assistance Fund, is provided as a one-time grant that qualified homeowners will not be required to repay. Californians at or below 100% of their county’s area median income, who own a single-family home, condo or manufactured home, and who faced pandemic-related hardships after Jan. 21, 2020, may be eligible for the program. Applicants can visit the California Mortgage Relief Program at CaMortgageRelief.org for more information. Online applications will soon be available.

Read more at:

https://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article256742217.html#storylink=cpy

Inventory Watch

NSDCC tidbits as we roll into Christmas:

  • We’ve had more new pendings than new listings in five of the last six weeks.
  • We’ve had no active listings of houses priced under $1,000,000 for the last three weeks.
  • 70% of the detached-homes for sale are priced over $3,000,000.
  • The NSDCC median list price of the 186 active listings today is $5,347,000.

Pricing will feel significantly higher next year!

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Fallbrook Ranch

Check out Michele’s new one-story listing at 392 Vista Del Indio in Fallbrook!

3 br/2.5 ba, 1,918sf

1.05-acre lot

YB: 1985

LP = $799,000

SP = $856,000

Have you always wanted a single-story house with a three-car garage on a private, secluded ONE-ACRE lot at the end of the road in the heart of Fallbrook? This is it! New carpet and paint, refinished pool/spa plus central A/C installed recently. The floor plan is wide open and leads out to the large beautiful deck that offers a stunning view of the park-like backyard. The yard maintenance is manageable too, with a fenced-off portion of the back of the lot that slopes down to a seasonal creek – wow! A great value for those who want space and privacy.

Open house 12-3pm Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, December 17-19.

More on 2022

Brian and Yunnie got together for a preview of 2022. Yun touted his usual vagueness and Brian touched on a sensitive subject that long-time blog reader Chris and I discussed yesterday. 

The shuffle of older agents leaving the business and being replaced by new-age realtors who only know automated order-taking will make the end of the frenzy somewhat predictable.  Because the agents who have gotten into the business over the last 12 years have never experienced a ‘downturn’, it won’t be detected by most until the market has softened considerably.  Agents will carry on, and the last thing sellers will do is lower their price enough to sell. Plateau City should arrive by next summer, where sellers and listing agents unwittingly let listings sit for months while waiting for someone to bail them out. Sales drop, and prices stay about the same.  It will be excruciating.

“People rushed to buy homes during the pandemic, so two straight years of spectacular performance,” Yun said, pointing to a 7% increase in home sales from 2020 to 2021—from 5.7 million to 6 million, respectively.

While home sales have shined over the past two years since the start of the pandemic, Yun said 2022 is poised to be slightly different.

“I think the sales activity will be shaved modestly,” Yun said, suggesting a 2% reduction in sales next year as mortgage rates increase.

A silver lining on the horizon will be improvements in inventory, with the industry “turning the corner” on the dire shortage of housing supply for sale, according to Yun.

“New construction of single-family homes has been moving steadily higher,” he said, indicating that the market may see more inventory in the spring market next year than in 2021.

Yun also indicated that more people are likely to list their homes now that federal support and mortgage forbearance programs are either ended or are slated to end next year.

Even with a much-needed injection of inventory, Yun noted that agents should prepare for the rising mortgage rates to push activity forward next year as buyers try to secure the lowest rates possible before they climb to 3.7% by the end of 2022.

Buffini’s general advice to agents was to focus on the fundamentals and take advantage of the upcoming business in the winter and summer.

“I know people are working as hard as they can, but there is an old phrase that even a turkey can fly in a hurricane,” Buffini said. “When the wind starts to slow down, if you’re a turkey up at 200 feet, you’re going to be Thanksgiving dinner.

“There are going to be a bunch of people getting out of the business, and we are going to be left with even less experience in the industry,” he concluded.

https://www.rismedia.com/2021/12/15/buffini-bold-predictions-2022-challenges-inexperienced-agents/

Flop-A-Roo

Because Opendoor listed this home for $1,100,000 right after they bought it for $1,081,000 (and did no improvements), it must have meant that they thought they stole it.  The market thought otherwise, and some might think they were lucky to get what they did.

Their MLS remarks are insightful though.

Country Living!

Check out Michele’s new one-story listing at 392 Vista Del Indio in Fallbrook!

3 br/2.5 ba, 1,918sf

1.05-acre lot

YB: 1985

LP = $799,000

Have you always wanted a single-story house with a three-car garage on a private, secluded ONE-ACRE lot at the end of the road in the heart of Fallbrook? This is it! New carpet and paint, refinished pool/spa plus central A/C installed recently. The floor plan is wide open and leads out to the large beautiful deck that offers a stunning view of the park-like backyard. The yard maintenance is manageable too, with a fenced-off portion of the back of the lot that slopes down to a seasonal creek – wow! A great value for those who want space and privacy.

Open house 12-3pm Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, December 17-19.

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