Auctions Now?

It would have been a good idea to launch the auction format on an industry-wide basis during the frenzy.  But how about now? They are still a good idea because auctions bring transparency and certainty to the home-buying process, which buyers would appreciate and make them more likely to engage.  Excerpts from article linked below:

If a home has been listed for a long time without much interest, it may be overpriced, according to Mr. Lesnock. During the pandemic, heightened demand has created bidding wars among buyers, with some prime properties selling within days of listing. If a residence isn’t getting any traction in one of the hottest real estate markets of the modern era, there’s a problem.

“Why is it not selling? It’s the windiest day on record, why is this kite not flying, right? That’s the way to think about it,” Mr. Lesnock explained.

The auction process also allows more transparency, according to Mr. Pchelintsev. Both buyers and sellers can follow the bids, either at a live auction or, increasingly, online.

“You get a notification on your phone. Someone just made a bid bigger than you, and you go, ‘how dare you?’” he said. “You go on and place a bigger bid and now you’re basically, apart from trying to get this amazing house, you’re also In sort of a little bit of a competition.”

That competition can help drive up the price of the property, according to Randy Haddaway, CEO and founder of Naples, Florida-based Elite Auctions.

“Sellers get more through this process than they would otherwise,” he said. “You get a group of millionaires competing against each other—and none of them are used to losing. They don’t want to walk away and that drives up prices.”

Mr. Lesnock agreed. “If you do [an auction] correctly, it will generate fair market or better prices.”

Link to Full Article

Towns With the Best Quality of Life

We are #12 only because of the higher cost of housing.

According to usnews.com, the best places to live in the U.S. for quality of life are:

  1. Ann Arbor, Michigan
  2. Boulder, Colorado
  3. San Jose, California
  4. Naples, Florida
  5. Trenton, New Jersey
  6. Madison, Wisconsin
  7. Boston, Mass
  8. Fort Collins, Colorado
  9. Reno, Nevada
  10. Portland, Maine
  11. Hartford, Conn
  12. San Diego, California
  13. Santa Barbara, California
  14. Santa Rosa, California
  15. Green Bay, Wisconsin
  16. Rochester, New York
  17. Boise, Idaho
  18. Grand Rapids, Michigan
  19. Sarasota, Florida
  20. Lancaster, Pennsylvania

https://realestate.usnews.com/places/rankings/best-places-to-live-for-quality-of-life

Alicia Keys John Mayer

It is so great having Kayla home. She grew up as a San Diegan, but she is a New Yorker now, living just blocks away from Times Square. Alicia was born in New York City, but is a La Jollan now and one of the 100 Greatest Artists of All-Time, having sold over 90 million records and winner of 15 Grammys!

Olivenhain Single Level

After she took five listings at the same price, I joked with the listing agent here that maybe every house was worth $3,200,000 now!  I don’t think any of them were worth $3 million before this year, and this is the only one that has closed under list:

Limit on Doom

Hat tip to long-time reader Todd who we saw at the game last night – we did bug out early, but it was only to pick up Kayla at the airport. The Padres walked it off in the 11th inning!

Meanwhile, people are wondering where the local real estate market is going to end up.

For conditions to change much, sellers would have to panic, and dump on price. Otherwise, we will just be taking a leisurely stroll through Plateau City, admiring all the homes that aren’t selling.

Here are the favorite zip codes around North County – SE Carlsbad (92009), Encinitas (92024), Carmel Valley (92130), and Rancho Santa Fe (92067).

A few months ago, we had the lowest number of active listings of all-time:

While lately the number of the active listings have been growing steadily, they would have to double from this point before getting into the danger zone – but we’re going to run out of time before that happens.

Now that doom is being broadcast everywhere, sellers will decide that ‘now isn’t a good time to sell’, and by August they will quit listing their homes for sale.

There are 396 NSDCC active listings today (and 180 pendings), and we might hit 500 before August, but that will be the peak for 2022.

The market won’t keep getting worse – it will just taper off for rest of the year as buyers AND sellers lose interest. Instead, we’ll be talking about the playoffs and our first-place Padres going to the World Series!

Over List, June (Preliminary)

We are having fewer sales between Carlsbad and La Jolla, but about the same percentage are closing over the list price as we’ve seen in the previous months of 2022:

NSDCC Detached-Home Sales, June (Month-to-Date)

Number of Sales: 104

Number of Sales Closed Over List: 68 (65%)

Average List Price of Over Lists: $2,298,732

Average Sales Price of Over Lists: $2,448,509

SP:LP = 107%

Median List Price of Over Lists: $2,100,000

Median Sales Price of Over Lists: $2,267,500

SP:LP = 108%

Can we say that the list pricing has come down much? Not really.

The median days-on market of those that closed over list was 8 days, so pretty much all of the buyers were into the higher mortgage-rate era when they made their decision.

I know it’s tempting for waiting buyers to think it’s going to get better, later – but so far, all that’s happened is fewer sales.

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The Final Stretch

We are wrapping up in La Jolla this week!

The Beach-Barber Tract is probably my favorite neighborhood in La Jolla, and is an eclectic mix of new and old that are close to both the beach AND village.  A block down from our sale is this teardown that just sold for $6,000,000.  The seller also owned the house next door to it, and he was the one who bought Mitt’s home – and just moved across the street!

Frenzy Monitor

Let’s break down the active and pending listings by zip code is to give you a closer look at the neighborhood stats.  We’re going to have more active listings simply because the the list prices were all based on red-hot frenzy conditions (comps + 5% or more), and we’re past the red-hot days.

NSDCC Actives and Pendings

Town/Area
Zip Code
Feb 27
Mar 16
May 5
Jun 20
Cardiff
92007
5/7
6/4
7/7
13/5
Carlsbad NW
92008
6/9
8/10
15/10
27/10
Carlsbad SE
92009
15/29
8/33
20/27
47/25
Carlsbad NE
92010
1/5
2/6
7/14
17/11
Carlsbad SW
92011
2/11
4/12
8/16
19/19
Carmel Valley
92130
10/31
10/30
22/25
50/18
Del Mar
92014
15/32
17/10
24/13
30/8
Encinitas
92024
15/32
17/28
24/32
46/26
La Jolla
92037
53/38
55/35
51/32
72/24
Rancho Santa Fe
92067
45/22
47/24
49/22
52/25
Rancho Santa Fe
92091
2/2
5/2
2/0
3/2
Solana Bch
92075
6/6
3/10
9/7
12/5
NSDCC
All Above
179/205
182/204
238/205
388/178

The selling season started early in 2022, and was cooking by the end of February. Let’s group the different areas based on how their pendings are holding up.

Frenzy-ish:

Carlsbad SW – A few houses finally went up for sale, and buyers responded.

Rancho Santa Fe – The active listings aren’t growing like in the other high-end areas of Del Mar and La Jolla, and the number of pendings are very impressive. It was once normal when the Ranch had a 10:1 ratio between actives and pendings!

Normal-ish:

Everyone else, except……

Crash Zone

Carmel Valley – which has always had more pendings than actives over the last two years – and sometimes twice as many pendings!  While having 50 actives and 18 pendings anywhere else would be a win, in the CV it feels like a meltdown.

Here they are:

(I tried to sort those by price order, but all they have is sort by date added)

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This nonsense about every buyer paying way over list price has to stop.  If the SP:LP was around 100% we’d be elated, yet it was 111%, 109%, and 109% in the February-April stretch.

So far in June, the SP:LP is 107% for the 104 detached-home sales between Carlsbad and La Jolla!

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We can also track the average market times too.  Any upward trends here would indicate market slowing – it’s early so nothing too startling yet:

The hottest of the red-hot was in 2020, when we had 400+ pendings from June 22nd to November 30th – with a peak of 491 pendings on 9/7/2020. Today we have 178 pendings.

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