Can we learn about what to expect in 2025 by reviewing the other recent metrics available? Here are alternative ways to gauge the market conditions - the most interesting numbers in red: Number of Sales - Just incredible that out of nowhere the July sales set the high...
Forecasts
San Diego Case-Shiller Index, June
I think we will experience a very similar trend in 2025. A hot market and prices for the first four months, and mellow-down-easy for the rest of the year. And April was already slowing. The first quarter of 2025 will be prime selling season! Plan accordingly!...
Zillow Local Predictions
Living in Flat City can be a disaster for those recent purchasers who buy the wrong house, or get divorced. If you have to resell your home in a year or two after buying it, the down payment will get eaten up and you may not be able to buy another house....unless you...
The Rest of 2024
Above is what's coming for the next six months, and it's going to be a slugfest as buyers and sellers grapple with price. The relation of sales price to the days on market will be exact. How much should buyers offer as we cruise into lowball season 2H24? The price...
Overvaluation Risk
Our home values have been detached from "key economic factors" for years. More interesting would be studies that analyze what would happen to areas that are full of the older tract homes (1980s and before) that haven't been improved much and are dumped onto the market...
Zillow Lowers Forecasts
Zillow has every reason to be the nation's real estate cheerleader since they derive the bulk of their income from realtors. They had been predicting 3% to 6% appreciation locally this year....at least up until two weeks ago. Something has changed: Carlsbad NW - 92008...
Zillow Local Appreciation Guesses, 2024
If Zillow made their predictions based on traffic to their website, it would be impressive. I'm not sure how they figure these though. Generally, they are expecting +3% to 4% in home values around here over the next 12 months: Carlsbad 92008 Carlsbad 92009 Carlsbad...
Zillow Tailwinds
It’s a new year and many, including Zillow economists, are optimistic. After a year in which almost half of agents reported selling one home or less, optimism is a valuable tool. To that end, there are a few major macroeconomic tailwinds that might fuel the early...
Pricing for the 40 Largest Metros
San Diego did about as well as any of the higher-end markets last year with a +8.5% year-over-year pricing gain, in spite of some of the ivory-tower doubters! I think we will see a positive pricing trend in 2024 too.
Predicting The 2024 Real Estate Market
Yesterday, Jay Powell shocked the world by declaring three rate cuts in 2024! It was Fed speak of the most unusual order - open and transparent, instead of the opaque mumbling of previous chairmen. The predictions are for rate cuts early in 2024 too. The CNBC survey...