The last time we had a big surge in pricing, the median sales price went up 100% in five years. But that was twenty years ago when the boomers were all young enough to move frequently, causing plenty of homes to be for sale.
By now, most (if not all) of those boomers are settled in and just watching the show.
Average tenure length jumped nearly 4 percent from one year ago, and 0.4 percent compared with last month. The monthly gain was the largest since August 2020. The monthly increase in average tenure length contributed to a loss of over 17,000 potential home sales. Since existing homeowners supply the majority of the homes for sale, and increasing tenure length indicates homeowners are not selling, the housing market faces an ongoing supply shortage.
Before the housing market crash in 2007, the average length of time someone lived in their home was approximately five years. Average tenure length grew to approximately eight years during the aftermath of the housing market crisis between 2008 and 2016. The most recent data shows that the average length of time someone lives in their home reached 10.6 years in May 2021, an historic high.
Two trends are locking homebodies in place and driving the increase in tenure length.
First, for homeowners with rock-bottom rates, modestly higher rates in an historically low inventory environment may disincentivize some from selling their homes, thus preventing more supply from reaching the market. Second, seniors are choosing to age in place. Analysis of the 2020 ASEC data reveals that the homeownership rate actually increased for baby boomers in 2020. While a 2019 study from Freddie Mac shows that if seniors and adults born between 1931-1959 behaved like earlier generations, they would have released nearly 1.6 million additional housing units to the market by 2018. As seniors continue to choose to age in place, there will be fewer existing homes available for sale.
That face when you find out you’re included in Wall Street Journal’s America’s Best Real Estate Professionals list for 2020! We were one of only 92 Compass teams to be included.
THANK YOU to our team members for assisting us, our clients for trusting us, and our friends, family, and blog readers for supporting us through every step of the way!
Let’s review how some listing agents have been handling their bidding wars in 2021.
Ignored a $60,000 non-refundable deposit and took an offer that was $40,000 lower.
Once they get to the highest offer, they insert their own buyer at the same price.
Let an escalation clause determine the winner, and ignore the others.
Counter for highest-and-best, then pick a winner before everyone responds.
Not respond at all.
There are no rules. No guidelines. No laws.
The best our association can do is to issue a spreadsheet form.
Thus, anything goes.
Here’s how I handle it.
The home on Galena Canyon had originally listed for $1,599,000 and had 25 showings and six offers over the first weekend in March. We had three buyers (one was contingent) who were willing to pay around $1,750,000, so I asked the two non-contingent buyers to make their second highest-and-best offer to determine the winner – which they did, and $1,770,000 won it. I changed the list price in the MLS to $1,770,000, and marked it pending.
Last Friday morning, the buyer had an unforeseen glitch, and we fell out of escrow. We go back on the open market for Easter weekend, hoping for the best – knowing that the urgency is much higher when the listing is new and fresh.
I had added this to the confidential remarks:
Since we hit the market, these have happened: 16175 Deer Ridge 3,451sf closed for $1,775,000 on March 1st. 15288 Cayenne Creek 3,877sf closed for $1,800,000 on March 30th. 16342 Cayenne Creek 3,446sf pending, listed for $1,825,000. 9716 Wren Bluff 3,780sf pending, listed for $1,835,000. Plus Mark listed one for $2,795,000 around the corner. Built-in equity!
This time, we had six showings and three offers over list, which I thought was pretty good.
I had told the agents to make their highest-and-best offer, and while they were all competitive, I thought there might be more gas in the tank. So I politely asked all three to H&B again, and one emerged from the others by packing another $40,000 onto their first offer.
We are in escrow at $1,840,000, after starting at $1,599,000 a month ago.
Isn’t that the result you’d like to see for yourself, or someone you know?
It is not a given how listing agents handle a bidding war. Most agents just grab their favorite, and turn off their phone. You deserve better.
If you, or someone you know, is thinking of selling, I’d sure appreciate a call!
We are grateful for the opportunity to assist our blog readers! From a recent seller:
When we moved to San Diego in 2005 we rented a big house on Mt. Soledad (La Jolla) with 180 degree ocean views for the same payment as a mortgage on a dump in Chula Vista. Clearly something was wrong. Yet, the media was full of the usual happy-talk nonsense, so I was glad to find Jim’s blog.
I’ve followed his honest assessments and data since.
We decided to sell and move to AZ at Thanksgiving. Dec. 1st we met with Jim to sell our home. We closed today (29 days later). Jim orchestrated a feeding frenzy — we had 25 showings in 2-1/2 days, multiple offers, and sold for well over asking price. I’d say he earned his commission!
We have owned and sold homes in 5 different States always using experienced, productive, full-time realtors. Jim outshines them all. You don’t decide to sell and close 29 days later over Christmas (with COVID lockdown) without some miracles. Donna was amazing at performing lots of those miracles and ensuring that everything was done right and on time. They are a terrific team with a very responsive and professional network.
Though last year had many challenges and was the worst year ever for many, it turned out to be a phenomenal year for us, business-wise. We are very grateful for our clients’ faith and confidence – many of whom found us here at the blog!
The Klinge Realty Group had a record year with 41 sales and just over $50,000,000 in volume!
THANK YOU!!
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Here’s the new year message from my wife Donna:
Yes 2020 was one for the books – a year no one will ever forget.
As we bid adieu, many of us will look back and reflect on the many valuable lessons and gifts this year brought to us. It was a year full of uncertainty, fear, and doubts; but we also bore witness to a year full of love, service, human sacrifice, collaboration, and a sense of belonging to one same world – all of us in this together.
As we walk into the promise of a new year, we are thinking about all of the people who helped us get through so much unexpected change, and we are filled with gratitude and hope for 2021. We appreciate our loyal clients for their faith and confidence in us in helping them buy and sell their homes; our co-workers and team who said “Yes we can” and were beyond inspiring; and our family and friends who loved and supported us along the way. We love making people’s home dreams come true!
Who thought our generation would face a pandemic. But here we are, fighting together as one world.
I save photos during the year to feature here at the end, and I’m sure the Carlsbad Historical Society was a likely source for some of these – thank you S. Gutierrez!
Century 21 Pacific on Garnet & Cass in PB – where I started in the 1980s
I was sitting on floor duty when an older gentleman in shorts and flip-flops rolled up on his bike. He wanted to buy a condo in an oceanfront building for $100,000 or less (didn’t have to be on the front). Realtors used the MLS books back then, and I found a condo that could work – but couldn’t get a response from the listing office. A fellow agent figured out why – I was using an old book, and the listing was expired!
I called the sellers direct, and my manager Rex Downing and I went to their house with a written offer for $100,000. The sellers explained that the reason it had not sold was because the tenant wouldn’t show it, and my buyer – who was a retired broker – said no problem, he’ll see it once they leave. Once the tenants moved, my buyer took a look around and said “Sure, I’ll take it!”
I made a 6% commission on my first sale….and I was hooked!
The location of my 1st sale – at the pool, and right on the alley:
He is right – I don’t give much thought to SEO, which is probably why we had the lowest number of estimated monthly visits (by far) of the nine blogs included. He mentioned that the view-counter tends to be low, especially for hyperlocal sites.
Here’s our number of viewers this month from Google Analytics:
