Let’s call it the Big Confluence:
- Covid concerns keep diminishing over the next few months.
- More sellers feel safe to put their home on the market.
- More sellers find a way to hurry up and get their home on the market.
- Buyer skepticism rises.
- Agents get too cocky.
- Prices reach their limit.
All the above will cause inventory to increase, and buyers to relax. Then what?
This is my craziest theory of all-time:
everything is digital now anyway. people will make their offers while on vacation!!!
Listing agents have been reluctant to take offers from video-only buyers. But that may be all they have in July?
One of the other components is how long the frenzy hangover will last. Agents will keep telling their buyers to offer $100k over list longer than needed because they want to win, not because the market warrants.
and how does a buyer determine which houses are worth the extra 100-200k to bid over ask and which ones are not…??
…..get good help….
and how does a buyer determine which houses are worth the extra 100-200k to bid over ask and which ones are not…??
Hmmmm……yeah, that’s a problem.
If it were happening to 100% of the homes selling, then you just do what everyone else does.
But it’s not. Most, yes….but not all.
I strongly suspect that the 10% over list winning offers will be quickly followed by another 10% in necessary buyer’s repairs that would normally be borne by the seller either prior to or during escrow.
That’s when we know the frenzy is over. When conditions reappear in offers.
Totally agree. We’re in the honeymoon stage, for now.
With all the greatest respect I completely disagree. The market will be red hot for the next 5 years. The roaring 20’s are just beginning. Buy what you desire because you could of died from COVID. “YOLO” is king for the next 5 years
Yes, much more likely to be the case.
There will be no resistance from realtors. It will only take a few months of seeing most houses selling over list price, and then that will become the standard. It won’t occur to anyone who got their license in the last 12 years that there is even such a thing as a down market, or a correction.
Relative to liveable areas in Los Angeles and Orange Counties, and the Bay Area, San Diego County is still undervalued.
@anon
you are correct. which is why so many from the the bay area are down here tossing money around like it’s pesos.
Yes yes! San Diego is wonderful. Much more wonderful than other possible coastal destinations.
SD and VenCo are #1 – everything in between is meh.
It never ceases to amaze me but I have a publication (I think they were called ‘books’) from the mid 1960s that shows back then Orange County and Ventura County were virtually identical. OC now; 3.2m population, VenCo 0.84m. I don’t need to tell you about the differences in character.
Enough mutual bragging. The thing is places with QoL (Quality of Life) are experiencing never before seen demand and a similar decline in the number of places being marketed.
The frenzy will not end everywhere at least for a very long time.
We’ve talked about how the demand is being pulled forward from future years. Let’s break it down further.
Think about the boomers who have retired in the last few years and thought they would get around to their last move some day soon, plus those who were contemplating their retirement in the next few years who decided because of Covid that the QoL was more important.
Are they going to Last-Move (tm pending) to LA or OC where the cost/QoL balance is way worse than SD or VenCo? Not a chance.
The grandkids will always be the priority, but for those who have a choice will find out counties much more appealing.
Thus, they will provide more frenzy food for much longer – perhaps years longer – than in LA and OC.