Here are the Zillow estimates of appreciation over the next year – all are back into positive territory! If they are reading it correctly, it means they will have more increases coming over the next couple of months before the appreciation rate relaxes during the off-season.
Their accuracy doesn’t matter – it’s their impact on today’s home buyers that counts:
Here’s another example of how the frenzy has taken a different path in each area.
Carlsbad, Encinitas, La Jolla and Rancho Santa Fe are rolling along with about the same or more pendings than last month – which should have been the peak – but the wheels have come off the wagon in Carmel Valley. There hasn’t been single-digit pendings in the 92130 since we started checking this two years ago! But there are homes for sale, which must mean the prices need some adjustment.
In 2020, there were 400+ pendings from June 22nd to Nov. 30th – with a peak of 491 pendings on Sept. 7.
If you are contemplating a move out-of-state due to politics….you’re going to love this:
Despite Gov. Gavin Newsom’s historic commitment to ending California’s housing crisis — and the administration’s arm-twisting to try to make local jurisdictions do the right thing — we have not made the progress that Californians need.
Forty percent of the state’s households now spend more on housing than they can afford, and California is home to more than half of the nation’s unsheltered people.
A new proposal in the Legislature, Assembly Constitutional Amendment 10, puts us on the precipice of significant change. If passed, Assemblymember Matt Haney’s bill would give voters the opportunity to enshrine housing as a fundamental right in our state constitution. The constitutional amendment would provide the state with a game-changing legal tool — and an ongoing obligation no matter who is in office — to ensure that every person has access to a permanent, stable home.
Creating a fundamental right to housing is consistent with public will. Indeed, a survey found that 55% of Californians view affordable housing as a community responsibility, and 58% believe affordable housing should be guaranteed. That’s not a surprise — people realize that a safe, secure and productive life is only possible with a home.
A recent report by the American Civil Liberties Union and others shows why a constitutional amendment would have real teeth and is a long-overdue step towards ending the housing crisis. In 1944, President Franklin D. Roosevelt called for every American to have a “decent home” regardless of “station, race or creed.” The U.S. then led the effort for the United Nations to draft and adopt the Universal Declaration on Human Rights, including a right to housing. Unfortunately, that right never took root back home.
The inventory has been so low this year that any excess hasn’t been noticeable….until now.
In a hot market, the additional listings will get picked up by the stronger demand. But there will be a point when excess listings start stacking up.
You can’t blame it on the market either – it’s been hotter than expected. Here’s how the first quarter compared to previous first quarters, and it has picked up since then:
Having 60% of the first-quarter listings already close escrow this year feels more like the frenzy years – and it’s probably due to the inventory being HALF of what it used to be pre-covid. Even in 2009 when prices had plummeted and it felt like nobody wanted to sell, we still had 1,422 listings in the first quarter! This year’s 607 is a real aberration and will likely be a harbinger of things to come.
Having the number of actives rising slightly probably isn’t going to change much – other than having more sellers continue their staredown with buyers, hoping that the last showing might be the lucky winners.
Although the housing market is often spoken of in aggregate, variations and pricing and market performance can be very localized. For example, according to data from Zillow, the anticipated one-year growth rate for homes prices in the U.S. as a whole is 1.7%, with a median price of $395,220 expected to be reached in 2033. But in fast-growing markets like Columbia, Missouri, that anticipated rate is 6.4% — more than three times the national average.
To determine which are the most attractive cities in which to buy real estate over the coming decade, GOBankingRates looked at homes that are currently priced below the national median of $333,910 with anticipated growth rates in excess of the projected 1.7% national rate. We issued a caveat that of course home prices don’t move in a strictly linear fashion; however, the anticipated one-year growth rate was used primarily to identify housing markets that are moving in the right direction:
Textbook example of how to run an auction – hit ’em fast and furious in the beginning to get bidders to jump, and hope for the best. It worked beautifully too, because I’m not sure there was more than one bidder. P.S. Carson Palmer was the buyer – he built a big bomber on the lot, and then got the last laugh when he sold it for $18,000,000 in 2018:
P.S. The buyer paid the 10% commission – purchase price was $4,400,000.
Last April was peak frenzy, and a main contributor was the lack of inventory….and there were 48.2% fewer listings last month? Holy Cow! This is primetime selling season and if there aren’t homes for sale now, how much worse will it be the rest of the year?
Here’s how it looks between La Jolla and Carlsbad:
Remember when inventory plunged in April, 2020 because nobody wanted to let anyone in their house?
I’d love to go back to those days!
While other metro areas have YoY inventory exploding, we still have enough demand to cause the active-inventory count to decline year-over-year:
