The Long Road Home

It took almost a year to sell it – the initial list price was $3,395,000 last April during peak frenzy – but after refreshing the listing 2-3 times and lowering the price (list was $2,749,000 at time of sale) they got it done.

It closed yesterday at $2,625,000:

Dream For All

The CalHFA Dream For All Shared Appreciation Loan Program is out.

It’s a way for buyers to purchase a home with no money down. The State of California has thrown $300 million towards the program, and they will provide a 20% down payment and share the future appreciation.

It’s not a dream for all – it’s only for those who meet the criteria:

  • San Diego County income under $211,000.
  • 680+ credit score.
  • Debt-to-income ratio under 45%.
  • Haven’t owned a home in the last three years.
  • 8-hour online seminar.
  • Seller can pay the buyer’s closing costs.

Here are the FAQs:

https://www.calhfa.ca.gov/homeownership/programs/FAQ-cadfa.pdf

It will be a useful program for homebuyers who don’t strive to buy a quality property – because those are being snapped up by the affluent. I had two different cases this week where my buyers got into bidding wars – 14 offers on a Escondido house under a million, and 8 offers on a mid-$2,000,000 house in La Jolla. Both offered 5% over the list price and lost.

Those who pre-qualify for the Dream For All program and submit an offer on a quality home will likely be shown the back of the line by the listing agent, who will have the more-traditional buyers to choose from.

To paraphrase what George said, the Dream For All may sound good, but you have to be asleep to believe it.

Torrey Highlands!

Now Sold!

13328 Deer Canyon Pl., San Diego 92129

4 br/4.5 ba, 3,084sf

YB: 2003

Lot size = 8,441sf

LP = $1,795,000

SP = $1,930,000

We represented the sellers.

Upscale kitchen remodel with classy white and expresso cabinetry, Thermador stainless appliances including 48-inch six-burner stove with griddle, three ovens, deluxe refrigerator/freezer columns and Bosch dishwasher! Wow! Plus hardwood floors, shutters, fireplace, and dual-zone central air. A downstairs bedroom suite is nestled into the far corner, and the three-car garage has loads of potential. Upstairs has been customized as well! Walk to all three schools! Deer Canyon Elementary and Westview High School are both rated a 10 at greatschools (Mesa Verde Middle is rated a 9, and for the record, TPHS is also rated a 9).


Jim’s New Listing in RP

Check out our new listing!

13328 Deer Canyon Pl., San Diego 92129

4 br/4.5 ba, 3,084sf

YB: 2002

Lot size = 8,441sf

LP = $1,795,000

Open house 12-3pm on Sat & Sun April 1st and 2nd.

Upscale kitchen remodel with classy white and expresso cabinetry, Thermador stainless appliances including 48-inch six-burner stove with griddle, three ovens, deluxe refrigerator/freezer columns and Bosch dishwasher! Wow! Plus hardwood floors, shutters, fireplace, and dual-zone central air. A downstairs bedroom suite is nestled into the far corner, and the three-car garage has loads of potential. Upstairs has been customized as well! Walk to all three schools! Deer Canyon Elementary and Westview High School are both rated a 10 at greatschools (MV Middle is rated a 9, and for the record, TPHS is also rated a 9).

https://www.compass.com/app/listing/13328-deer-canyon-place-san-diego-ca-92129/1278342465120164953

Encinitas Ranch Second Time

This is the single-level home that sold in February, 2022 for a million over the $2.5 million list price (set deliberately low by the seller). The buyer passed away, unfortunately, and their heirs listed it a year later for $2,900,000. The listing agent (who lives in the ER) also set his list price attractively low and got it bid up to $3,200,000 this time.

While the casual observer would deduce that prices have come down 9% in the last year, you have to wonder if the buyer had to pay as much as $3,500,000 to win it last year – or if that was a random plunge.

How To Lowball

Thanks to Peter for sending in this sale that exemplifies how to get a good deal.

Someimes you can get lucky and the listing agent does the work for you – and you just need to be in the right place, at the right time. We already saw this one where an out-of-town agent listed way too low at $1,195,000 and the neighbor across the street jumped on it and paid full price – then did nothing to it and put it right back on the market for $1,595,000…..and sold it for $1,550,000 cash.

But the one above was even better.

It’s a 4br/3ba, 2,377sf house in Cardiff, and last summer there were comps that had the seller believing it might be worth $1,800,000.  Here are things from this case that you can look for when lowballing:

  1. Long-time owners who have a large equity position and have the ability to dump on price.
  2. Sellers who have refinanced ten times.
  3. Listing broker who announces they are closing their doors on August 24th.
  4. Listing agent who doesn’t get in the way.
  5. Pricing strategy that gives you hope.

The price reduction at the end of September put it on the range $1,549,900 to $1,699,900, and after three months on the market, all of the buyers were looking at the bottom number. Another month went by before they found the buyer, who by then had to be licking his chops. I don’t know how much the price was reduced after inspections (usually it’s a combination of low offer and more reduction after inspections), but however they got to $1,274,000 made it a great buy.

The buyer is a corporation and they financed their purchase with this fix-and-flip lender, so we should be seeing it on the market again soon!

San Diego Case-Shiller Index, Jan

Here we go – the first negative year-over-year reading!

The index will probably stay negative for another one or two readings, then level off and maybe rise during the spring – but we won’t know until summer due to the lag in reporting.

Any gain during the spring selling season will likely be given back in the second half of the year as seasonality creeps back in – even though the consensus will be that the higher rates and recession finally crushed real estate by 2024.

This is funny how the reporter got it right about there being too few homes for sale. But then the quote from the expert that followed made no mention of inventory. Most of the country is blind to what’s really going on because the doom, real or imagined, is ingrained daily by the psuedo-experts – which causes potential sellers to wait it out:

Prices were lower year over year in San Francisco (-7.6%), Seattle (-5.1%), Portland, Oregon (-0.5%) and San Diego (-1.4%). They were flat in Phoenix.

Miami, Tampa and Atlanta again saw the hottest annual price gains of the top 20 cities. Miami prices were up 13.8%, Tampa prices up 10.5%, and Atlanta prices rose 8.4%. All 20 cities, however, reported lower prices in the year ending January 2023 versus the year ending December 2022.

Homebuyers may be seeing more flexible sellers this spring, but there are still too few homes available for sale. Mortgage lending may also tighten in light of pressure on the banking system.

“More expensive, less available borrowing, especially with an unclear economic outlook, is likely to continue to limit buyer demand. Though home sales are expected to rebound in line with seasonal trends, this spring’s sales pace is expected to remain lower than last year, as uncertainty and high costs limit activity,” said Hannah Jones, economic data analyst for Realtor.com.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/28/home-prices-cool-in-january-even-falling-in-some-cities-sp-case-shiller.html

Inventory Watch – Under $3,000,000

Actives = green, Pendings = blue

Last week, a reader suggested that we highlight the Under-$3,000,000 market.

It is astonishing that in an area of 300,000 people, there are fewer than 100 houses for sale priced under $3,000,000 (and none under $1,195,000).

Our standard for a healthy market is a 2:1 ratio of actives to pendings, and today it’s under 1:1….there are more pendings than actives!

The Under-$3,000,000 market is doing great, and if it weren’t for the buzz around higher rates and the uber-frenzy at the start of 2022, we’d be on our merry way through the spring selling season.

But last year’s first quarter was NOT normal:

If someone you know is thinking of selling their home, tell them to go ahead – the market is fine.

(more…)

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