The reason for breaking down the active and pending listings by zip code is to give the readers a closer look at their neighborhood stats. Historically, we’ve figured that a 2:1 ratio was a sign of a healthy market.
By now we are drifting into the holiday season, so there should be some natural dropoff this time of year anyway. But even with rates in the mid-7s today, the active and pending listings still look pretty good!
Four green areas have more pendings now than last month, and the yellows have significantly fewer:
Thanks to Mike for pointing out that comparing 2022 data to last year isn’t really fair:
The pandemic years, especially 2021, were a strange aberration where everyone moved, house prices skyrocketed, and nearly every real estate business posted record revenues.
Why it matters: 2022 is constantly being compared to 2021, which was anything but normal, and year-over-year comparisons are painting a deeply negative picture.
Dig deeper: Assuming a fairly conservative 5.15 million existing home sales in 2022, the comparison to last year is a sobering 16 percent drop — but 2021 is an outlier, not a benchmark. Compared to the historical average of the previous eight years (2012–2019), transaction volumes in 2022 would be down only 0.9 percent.
NSDCC Detached-Home Sales Between January-September
Year
# of Sales
Median SP
Median DOM
Avg. Annual Mortgage Rate
2017
2,385
$1,230,000
34
3.99
2018
2,166
$1,320,000
20
4.54
2019
2,153
$1,320,000
23
3.94
2020
2,213
$1,424,892
20
3.11
2021
2,548
$1,880,000
13
2.96
2022
1,590
$2,400,000
12
4.87
Sales caught up quickly after the initial Covid swoon, so the 9-month count in 2020 looks fairly normal. The average for the first four years is 2,229 sales, and last year’s count was 14% higher.
This year’s count looks dire at -38% YoY, but the -29% below normal doesn’t look that great either. The pundits would say it’s a result of unaffordability, and yes, homes are much less affordable after the median sales price rises $520,000 in one year.
Sales are down because sellers are holding out on price – if they had to sell, they could.
Those who don’t have a mortgage are particularly susceptible to fraudulent acts. Check out this free service being offered by the county to alert you! Hat tip just some guy!
Is title lock insurance a good investment?
Such insurance usually costs from $12 to $20 a month. But the San Diego County Assessor/Recorder/Clerk’s office now is offering the monitoring service at a far better price — free.
An announcement was made Friday that a real estate fraud notification service called “Owner Alert” is being activated for all homeowners who sign up for the service and register their parcel number.
“We timed this with the mailing of property tax bills,” says Jordan Marks, chief architect of the new service, noting that parcel numbers are easily available on the bills.
Through an electronic monitoring program, the county will notify property owners whenever their title is changed or a lien is attached.
“My goal is to sign up every San Diego property owner,” says Marks, chief deputy assessor. Marks, a Republican, is running against Democrat Barbara Bry to succeed retiring Ernest Dronenburg as head of the county’s Assessor-Recorder-Clerk’s Office in the Nov. 8 election.
Title theft is rare, but it does occur.
Patrick Ojeil, deputy district attorney in charge of real estate fraud in San Diego County, has 38 cases of potential title theft now under investigation.
Most of the time, he says, it is a family member or someone who knows the victim, such as a neighbor, a caregiver or an acquaintance, who tries to hijack the property title. But not always.
In 2015, a high-profile case came to light involving the bizarre theft of the title to Petco Park, appraised at the time for $539 million. A man, later determined to be mentally ill, had assumed title to the ballpark in 2013 by simply walking into the county recorder’s office and filing a fraudulently notarized title transfer form.
After the nefarious deed was discovered, perpetrator Derris McQuaig was charged with a felony. But a judge dismissed the case when McQuaig was determined to be mentally incompetent to stand trial. Instead, he was committed to Patton State Hospital in San Bernardino County.
No evidence was uncovered that McQuaig had plans to financially benefit from the title transfer, or that it was part of a larger scam. Nevertheless, it created a bureaucratic and legal headache for the city and the Padres and a challenge to get the title properly re-recorded.
This 6.9-acre oceanfront site has been called one of the most exclusive and unique properties in the United States, and has been listed for sale since 2007 – the current price is $49,000,000. An incredible turn of events is underway – the planned high-end resort was defeated by the voters, so now they want to put apartments there and are using the state’s mandate for lower-income housing as their leverage. From the UT:
A developer is proposing a 259-unit apartment complex on an ocean bluff in Del Mar that was previously the site of a contentious battle over a resort.
Owner Carol Lazier has submitted paperwork and applications to Del Mar for what is being called Seaside Ridge, which would be the biggest apartment complex in the city. Plans call for 85 subsidized apartments, some for individuals making as little as $30,000 a year, on the nearly 7-acre site near Dog Beach.
Lazier and her partners are betting on new state laws that encourage residential building — especially for rent-restricted apartments — to get the plan approved.
“Our plan would help the City of Del Mar comply with the law by building 259 apartment units,” said project spokesman Darren Pudgil. “Seaside Ridge will provide 78 percent of the city’s need for 54 lower-income units (required by the state) and well over 100 percent of the city’s moderate-income need. This will provide equitable coastal access for a range of income groups.”
Seaside Ridge would have nine buildings, some up to four stories, and a two-story parking podium/garage. Taller buildings are clustered in the center and in the east portions of the site. The development would have 305 parking spots and 25 electric car charging stations. The mix of apartments would include 71 studios, 131 one-bedrooms, 38 two-bedrooms and 19 three-bedrooms. It would also include a trail accessible to the public that leads to views of the ocean.
Lazier, the property owner for around 20 years, previously worked with Zephyr Partners and The Robert Green Company to develop a hotel on the site called Marisol. The effort to get the project approved, called Measure G, was defeated by voters in 2020. A developer has not been selected yet for the apartment project, but Lazier has hired architects, land use experts and lawyers.
Lazier is known for her philanthropy, donating $1 million to save the San Diego Opera in 2014 and other donations.
A legal firm representing the development, Southern California-based Sheppard Mullin, argues Del Mar must approve the plan because it falls under recent laws — namely Senate Bills 330 and 8 — that encourage additional housing and streamline approvals.
The legal claim for Seaside Ridge centers on Del Mar being out of compliance with the state’s Housing Element Law, which requires municipalities to rezone parcels to meet requirements for housing. Seaside Ridge’s law firm also uses a law signed by the governor last year, AB 1398, that requires local governments to approve most housing projects if they are out of compliance. Del Mar has identified the fairgrounds as a possible site for subsidized housing but has yet to approve a firm plan, setting up an opportunity for Seaside Ridge.
While it remains to be seen how lawyers and staff for Del Mar will interpret Seaside Ridge’s legal claims, housing analyst Nathan Moeder said the legal argument for approval makes sense. Moeder, who was not involved in the project but reviewed legal arguments, said it appeared to be an example of a community unable to escape housing requirements imposed by the state.
Moeder said it would be ironic if the project is approved because residents of the area would probably have enjoyed the resort defeated by Measure G, with restaurants and more public features.
“This is the unintended consequence of NIMBYism,” he said, referring to the anti-housing term Not in my Backyard. “They tried to stop a hotel that was more public-orientated, it had a restaurant and a bar that the public could use, and now they are just going to stuff housing there.”
Moeder said the NIMBY movement will need to get smarter about opposing projects because most land-use fights will now need to be taken up in Sacramento.
“It’s the state that’s making this happen. It’s not the local governments,” he said. “You can pass any initiative or referendum you want at the local level. The state will override you.”
The national bashing of the real estate market continues unabated, and I’m sure there are individual markets that are really feeling it. But real estate is local, so let’s examine the facts.
To get a sense of what has been happening since rates got into the 6s, let’s review NSDCC homes that have gone pending recently. You don’t have to know the streets or the particular homes – just scroll through the bunch and you’ll get the feeling that frenzy pricing is still lingering. Click on any for the full listing:
Bill has been following the inventory in different markets, and San Diego is faring much better than other areas. He is showing a 23.8% drop in new listings YoY, but last year was the record low. Look at the previous years:
September New Listings, San Diego County Detached and Attached Homes:
2005: 6,325
2006: 5,735
2007: 5,448
2008: 5,101
2009: 4,328
2010: 4,696
2011: 4,013
2012: 3,578
2013: 4,265
2014: 4,367
2015: 4,185
2016: 4,267
2017: 3,953
2018: 4,506
2019: 3,959
2020: 4,389
2021: 3,570
2022: 2,853
Everyone talks about the demand-side, but our market is being impacted by the lack of supply too.
Could there be demand that isn’t being satisfied because there aren’t more quality homes for sale listed by good agents at attractive prices?
I had 100+ people come to open house this weekend, and there were legitimate buyers in the group.
I wanted to show a house this weekend, and the showing instructions said to text the listing agent. I started via text on Wednesday, but literally never got a response, so I didn’t show it. The listing is still active today.
Higher rates haven’t changed the frustration of finding the right house, at the right price.
The inventory is probably going to dry up further and more sellers get convinced that now isn’t a good time to sell. With a tight selection of quality homes for sale, those who are willing to sell now aren’t going to be deterred from trying peak pricing, or close.
Example: My $1,800,000 listing in Aviara? This just popped up around the corner, priced at $2,295,000:
Those folks might sell, and they might not, but they should help me with mine! My point is that we are not seeing an increasing flow of new listings being priced lower and lower in an attempt to get out now. It’s actually quite the opposite.
Hat tip to just some guy for sending this in – an excerpt:
BEC scammers typically engage in what Alex calls a shotgun approach. They compile contact information for random players involved in any real estate transaction—lawyers, brokers, title agencies, mortgage lenders—then send mass phishing emails to this database, waiting for someone to take the bait.
In the email, the scammers might provide a link that leads to a website resembling the real estate agent or title company’s email login page. The duped individual will type out their credentials, which might lead to an error page. Most think nothing of it—perhaps it was merely an internet connection problem. They don’t realize they’ve sent their login information to the hacker, who now has access to their email and confidential company information. Critically, they are also able to track conversations about impending home sales with buyers, ultimately zeroing in on the specific deals they want to infiltrate.
That’s the easy part. What follows is complex social engineering, in which the scammers monitor correspondence about a specific transaction for months. Without tipping off anyone, they learn the minute details of a deal. When it becomes apparent that a down payment is about to be wired, they jump in with a fraudulent email to the buyer, pretending to give official instructions from the real estate or title agent: Please wire your money to this bank account. The email can be sent from the compromised account or from a fake one that looks almost identical to that of the agent in the deal. The unsuspecting buyer wires their life savings to a criminal.
Reports about this alarming scheme exploded during the pandemic, when home prices, bidding wars, and cash deals all rose. As transaction volume swelled, so did profits for real estate companies, lenders, and banks, and hackers smelled a growing opportunity. By targeting escrow wires, scammers are able to single out a particularly easy jackpot, a transaction involving multiple parties without proper internet security and the rare instance in which a giant sum of cash is sent in a single wire.
In 2020 and 2021 the FBI labeled BECs the costliest cyberthreat, accounting for reported losses of $4.2 billion, with real estate wire fraud becoming one of the most targeted sectors. “Those numbers are floors, not ceilings,” says Crane Hassold, director of threat intelligence at Abnormal Security, an email security company. “There’s a lot that doesn’t get reported.”
Wil Myers and his wife Maggie are out in downtown San Diego, buying shots for everyone in every bar they enter and thanking fans, high-fiving and celebrating. What a moment for the longest-tenured #Padres player. pic.twitter.com/MgwicXJ9n4
Many thanks to Gary Moyer, owner of our season tickets and the greatest friend a guy could ever have, for getting KR some recognition on the big board!
BJK, part-owner of the Dodgers, enjoyed the whole game and was very cordial about taking photos with fans. This was all I needed:
Longtime friend and fellow season-ticket holder Doug brought his daughter too:
