If you are on the fence about how to sell your house, and you don’t really need to sell anyway, here’s one reason to go all in and sell on the first try.
You sure don’t want to fail, and be an expired listing.
You remember our sellers who decided to rent their house, rather than be victimized by the blunder up the street. I warned them that on the day my listing shows up as expired on the MLS, there would be 100s of realtors descending upon them.
Their phone number was unlisted, and it was never mentioned in the MLS, but it doesn’t matter – any phone number can be found. Around 7am that morning, the calls started, and as you can see above, he was getting one about every five minutes.
Check the agent who called him three times in one minute!
You don’t ever want to be an expired listing. Your phone will melt down, and you will seriously consider getting a new phone number. The mail you’ll receive killed several trees, and the in-person hounding at your door will be offensive too.
I apologize on behalf of the realtor industry in advance.
Another reason to make sure you sell the first time around!
By now, it’s obvious that I’m a proponent of attractive pricing that creates instant urgency and a quick sale. Those who can properly handle a bidding war can work with the contestants to find top dollar, and I’ve found that it’s literally easier to go up on price, than down.
The more traditional plan of pricing high with the idea that “you can always come down later” has been the pattern for so long that most people don’t even question its effectiveness.
Here is a classic example – even after dropping from $2,995,000 to $2,199,000, it took another two months before they found the buyer, and more discounting before they settled on the sales price:
You can spruce up the house (for best results, do everything) and price attractively to create maximum urgency and sell for top dollar quickly, or you can do nothing, list for a retail price, and let the market have its way with you.
“The forceful deceleration in U.S. housing prices that we noted a month ago continued in our report for August 2022,” says Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director at S&P DJI. “For example, the National Composite Index rose by 13.0% for the 12 months ended in August, down from its 15.6% year-over-year growth in July. The -2.6% difference between those two monthly rates of change is the largest deceleration in the history of the index (with July’s deceleration now ranking as the second largest). We see similar patterns in our 10-City Composite (up 12.1% in August vs. 14.9% in July) and our 20-City Composite (up 13.1% in August vs. 16.0% in July). Further, price gains decelerated in every one of our 20 cities. These data show clearly that the growth rate of housing prices peaked in the spring of 2022 and has been declining ever since.
“Month-over-month comparisons are consistent with these observations. All three composites declined in July, as did prices in every one of our 20 cities. On a month-over-month basis, the biggest declines occurred on the west coast, with San Francisco (-4.3%), Seattle (-3.9%), and San Diego (-2.8%) falling the most.
The local Case-Shiller index is due tomorrow, and expectations are for a 2% drop from June. First American has their own repeat-sales index which is already showing a 12% decline in San Diego pricing (above).
While the -12% over six months is probably a surprise to people who think pricing is downward sticky, it’s different this time. In the past, the home-equity positions were much smaller, and many sellers had hold out just to have enough for a steak dinner at closing.
None of today’s sellers need to hold out. All of them could sell today for what the market will bear, if they could just get out of their own way. Yes, it’s true that they may have plans for all the money and need to sell for their price, and those sellers should just wait it out.
This could be over before you know it.
Is there a specific marker for home buyers to know when it’s time to buy? Or is it just when prices go down?
Is the -12% enough to get the attention of the highly-motivated buyers – those who don’t own a house yet?
Or will they just look up in March/April and say, “Close enough!”
Between trying to watch the Padres game on my phone and the crowds of people looking at the house yesterday, I couldn’t get any more footage than this:
After having roughly 300 people attend the two open houses, we have received 14 offers!
We have countered all of the offers because agents don’t know who will go higher – why limit the seller response to just the top 3 or 5 offers? We countered $1,150,000 to every buyer to narrow down the group of contenders willing to go to at least that amount, and then I’ll do the jimjamalama.
Stay Tuned!
We did adjust the price upward this morning to alert the newcomers to our new starting point:
There were a few comments, mostly from neighbors, that accused me of deliberately starting with an ultra-low price to attract more people. Given the recent sales nearby, the current market conditions, and especially the active listings sitting around unsold, I thought it was an attractive price. I never fear pricing too low because I know how to handle a fair bidding process so everyone has a chance to pay top dollar.
What does an uptick in both actives and pendings mean?
The local market has finally succumbed to the trend of higher inventory and declining interest, or
We’ve hit bottom!
After the beating the market has taken over the last 3-4 months, you’d think sellers would be discouraged and just wait until the 2023 Spring Selling Season. But where will mortgage rates be then?
The 50 new NSDCC listings in the last week were the most since the week of August 15th, but nineteen of those had been on the market previously and were ‘refreshed’. So this probably isn’t the flood of inventory that could change everything. Or is it?
Just a quick reminder of the constant grift in real estate.
Before the listing was entered onto the MLS:
After the MLS listing was inputted – at least they didn’t recreate the history graph…..yet:
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Before the listing hit the MLS:
After MLS input:
Why does it matter? Because too many people – both buyers and sellers – are relying too much on these to be their accurate value estimators. People are moving too fast, they don’t want to spend much if any time investigating, and it’s too hard to get good help. Everyone just wants to grab and go!
The second set says they are based on recent home sales? How can it fluctuate 20% in one day? These revised real estate values aren’t a result of an algorithm; they are purely derived from the list price.
You are being manipulated by the Corporate Warlords – watch yourself!
I inputted my new listing around 10am this morning, and the first agent to inquire must have been within a block away. Another showed it at 12:15, and at 12:40 she called me to say they are writing an offer too.
Within three hours on being on the MLS, we have EIGHT showings scheduled!
There isn’t a demand problem.
There isn’t a rate problem.
There is a problem with the prices, and buyers want a break.
When buyers see a home that is completely renovated and has an attractive price on it, they literally come running – even in late October, 2022.
Will agents and sellers be able to handle the post-frenzy environment, where you MUST do all the upgrading and price attractively just to have a chance at selling?
Needing everything to go right is a HUGE gamble, because if you miss something and don’t sell in the first few days (or fall out of escrow), then you might not even get as much as the attractive list price.
If you get multiple offers, how do you decide on the winner? Buyer’s remorse is vicious now.
We’ve been on this case since February helping to direct the final repairs and improvements in preparing for sale. In the beginning, there were hopes of listing for as much as $1,500,000, but as the market conditions developed, we have to be smart about pricing.
It’s like a quarterback leading his receiver – we have to anticipate what would be seen as an attractive price to buyers on October 21, 2022 to procure a sale in the first few days on market – and make it stick.
6217 Oakridge Road, San Diego 92120
4 br/2 ba, 2,065sf
YB: 1973
No HOA
6,900sf lot
LP = $995,000
Check out this practically-new single-story house at the end of the culdesac with gorgeous canyon and sunset views! Thoroughly renovated with new kitchen and baths, new windows, new flooring & painted inside and out – this is move-in ready! High ceilings, central air, sparkling pool & spa, and new exterior/landscaping too. Great schools too! Filled with natural light, this gem provides the upscale yet casual lifestyle at a very reasonable price!
