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The local Case-Shiller index is due tomorrow, and expectations are for a 2% drop from June.  First American has their own repeat-sales index which is already showing a 12% decline in San Diego pricing (above).

https://blog.firstam.com/economics/pandemic-boom-markets-cooling-the-fastest

While the -12% over six months is probably a surprise to people who think pricing is downward sticky, it’s different this time. In the past, the home-equity positions were much smaller, and many sellers had hold out just to have enough for a steak dinner at closing.

None of today’s sellers need to hold out. All of them could sell today for what the market will bear, if they could just get out of their own way. Yes, it’s true that they may have plans for all the money and need to sell for their price, and those sellers should just wait it out.

This could be over before you know it.

Is there a specific marker for home buyers to know when it’s time to buy? Or is it just when prices go down?

Is the -12% enough to get the attention of the highly-motivated buyers – those who don’t own a house yet?

Or will they just look up in March/April and say, “Close enough!”

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