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Thanks to Mike for pointing out that comparing 2022 data to last year isn’t really fair:

The pandemic years, especially 2021, were a strange aberration where everyone moved, house prices skyrocketed, and nearly every real estate business posted record revenues.

Why it matters: 2022 is constantly being compared to 2021, which was anything but normal, and year-over-year comparisons are painting a deeply negative picture.

Dig deeper: Assuming a fairly conservative 5.15 million existing home sales in 2022, the comparison to last year is a sobering 16 percent drop — but 2021 is an outlier, not a benchmark.  Compared to the historical average of the previous eight years (2012–2019), transaction volumes in 2022 would be down only 0.9 percent.

His article:

https://www.mikedp.com/articles/2022/10/11/2021-is-an-outlier-not-a-benchmark

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How are we doing around here?

NSDCC Detached-Home Sales Between January-September

Year
# of Sales
Median SP
Median DOM
Avg. Annual Mortgage Rate
2017
2,385
$1,230,000
34
3.99
2018
2,166
$1,320,000
20
4.54
2019
2,153
$1,320,000
23
3.94
2020
2,213
$1,424,892
20
3.11
2021
2,548
$1,880,000
13
2.96
2022
1,590
$2,400,000
12
4.87

Sales caught up quickly after the initial Covid swoon, so the 9-month count in 2020 looks fairly normal. The average for the first four years is 2,229 sales, and last year’s count was 14% higher.

This year’s count looks dire at -38% YoY, but the -29% below normal doesn’t look that great either. The pundits would say it’s a result of unaffordability, and yes, homes are much less affordable after the median sales price rises $520,000 in one year.

Sales are down because sellers are holding out on price – if they had to sell, they could.

 

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