Around the coast, the housing stock is finite - there isn't any more room to build new houses. Whether they knew it or not at the time, everyone has bought their 'forever' home and aging-in-place has become the natural trend. The higher prices and rates have locked...
Month: September 2022
NSDCC One-Story Homes For Sale
For those who prefer a single-level home and would like to peruse a curated group, check out this on-going collection of my favorite one-story homes for sale between La Jolla and Carlsbad here:...
Contingent-Offer Season?
Over the last few years there are two groups of buyers who have been left behind; the self-employed who have a tough time qualifying for a mortgage, and the contingent buyers because there have been enough non-contingent buyers that sellers would prefer. There hasn't...
Impact from Foreign Buyers
People have wondered if the foreign buyers will have an impact on how this turns out. But that segment of the buyer pool isn't what it used to be, according to a recent report by NAR:...
Zillow Local Appreciation Forecast
Zillow has recalibrated and is predicting a fairly flat 12 months ahead. Here are the zip codes I've received so far, all ranging between +1.5% and 1.9% appreciation over the next 12 months - the rest of the local zip codes should be similar: NW Carlsbad SE Carlsbad...
Post-Frenzy Coffee Bet
The last coffee bet began in 2006 when it was obvious to me and others that the market bubble was popping, so let's examine the data back to those years to see if we can learn anything that might be helpful when trying to predict the future: NSDCC Listings and Sales...
Inventory Watch
Even though the August sales count is up to 159, it looks like September might be the first month with fewer than 100 sales between La Jolla and Carlsbad (population 300,000+). There are only 144 pendings! Back in 2009 when nobody wanted to sell their house, there...
Future Pricing, Worst-Case
The wildcard on pricing is that every potential seller has sufficient equity to dump on price if needed. Why a seller would give it away when there are so many other alternatives (renting, reverse mortgages, hard-money loans, etc.) is beyond me. Even flipper...
The Impact of Rates
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Trying to predict what will happen to our local real estate market in the short-term? No surprise that mortgage rates will play a big role in how it plays out, and they have been extremely volatile lately. But it's just not...
Another Coffee Bet
After mortgage rates went over 6% again yesterday, the doomers will be burying the real estate market over the next few months. You can see why - rates have been dropping for a generation; for them to now go up from 3% to 6% in a few months is unprecedented for...