Remembering 9/11

“Boom! Boom! Just like that. The towers are gone now, reduced to bloody rubble, along with all hopes for Peace in Our Time, in the United States or any other country. Make no mistake about it: We are At War now? with somebody? and we will stay At War with that mysterious Enemy for the rest of our lives. It will be a Religious War, a sort of Christian Jihad, fueled by religious hatred and led by merciless fanatics on both sides. It will be guerilla warfare on a global scale, with no front lines and no identifiable enemy.”

Hunter S. Thompson

Media Is Not Our Friend

The mainstream media is prone to look for anything wrong with the housing market, and they are known to manufacture it if they have to!

You’d think an article that begins with the headline above will include some ultra-high end cities like San Francisco or New York City, but it doesn’t.  Instead, it mostly names small towns in flyover states as places that could be in trouble someday.  The only two in California are Menifee and Bakersfield!

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/50-housing-markets-turning-ugly-090000594.html

Number one on their list?  Peoria, Illinois!

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CNBC is usually the negativity leader, but thankfully in their article yesterday they did include one quote from a realtor (which is rare) and another from a buyer that sum up the general market conditions:

At an open house in Dallas on Sunday, a few dozen potential buyers toured a home listed at just under $1.4 million. The agent for the home said the market is still moving, but buyers are getting more picky.

“I definitely think it has softened a bit,” said Kelley McMahon a Dallas-area agent with Compass. “It’s not a seller’s market right now. Now is not the time for sellers to put out these crazy prices. Appraisals have gotten a lot harder, and buyers are a little more cautious. They’re more willing to take their time.”

McMahon said the concern is less about the overall health of the housing market, and more about the future of the economy.

“I think people are a little more cautious to pull the trigger, and I definitely think that people want to get through the election year, just kind of see what happens,” she added.

Dustin Collins and his wife toured the Dallas property while carrying their new baby. They are watching interest rates closely but don’t feel the pressure to move quickly, the way so many buyers did last year.

“For us, knowing that that kind of the frenzy is over, it’s more about finding the right house for us than paying too much for it,” Dustin said. “I feel like now houses are sitting a little longer, it just gives us a little more opportunity to find the house we want.”

Those sentiments describe a healthy environment where the price gap between the cream-puffs and the fixers is returning.  Buyers are taking their time, and passing on the fixers or demanding a better price on them, and yet are willing to pay the money for a turn-key property in a quality location.

Get Good Help!

Granny Flat Rent-Sharing

These guys are only operating in the Bay Area, but this is an idea that could spread, especially if they could buy the granny flats for less than $100,000.  They mention the company Node, who is charging $200,000 for a ready-built and installed 600sf ADU if you were to buy direct from them.

https://www.rentthebackyard.com/

If you are looking for a reasonably-priced granny flat, Amazon has dozens of kits for sale if you don’t mind assembling it yourself – the House-in-a-Box:

Link to Amazon Granny Flats

Inventory Watch

This is an interactive graph that compares the number of higher-end new listings per month.

We had a little uptick in July, but we settled back down in August. We only had five more listings last month than we did in August, 2018:

Here’s how it looks over ten years – we sure have more high-enders than we used to!


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NSDCC August Sales

You may remember that July’s numbers were all negative when I reported them on August 11th.

However, we had a slew of late-reporters, and July wasn’t as bad as I thought – the closings over $2,000,000 were only down 14% YoY (instead of -38%).

LINK HERE for corrected July report.

Last month was better – the number of sales over $2,000,000 were +13% year-over-year!

NSDCC Detached-Home Sales, August:

Year
# Closed Sales
Avg $$/sf
Median $$/sf
Median SP
# of $2M Sales
2017
279
$549/sf
$452/sf
$1,245,000
63
2018
276
$534/sf
$467/sf
$1,320,000
60
2019
261
$589/sf
$500/sf
$1,360,000
68
Latest YoY
-5%
+10%
+7%
+3%
+13%

Get Good Help!

Lower Hermosa – SOLD

Rare Lower Hermosa gem! Tom Shepherd-designed one level traditional U-shaped ranch with quintessential California indoor outdoor flow from spacious kitchen into tranquil and charming enclosed garden in a truly FABULOUS location! Featuring high ceiling living room, 2 large master en suite bedrooms plus an additional bathroom in the garage, 2 fireplaces, this charmer has a separate dining room with private tiled side patio eating area. Central heat & air, plus storage galore! Great bones, prime locale!

$2,720,000 Jim and Donna represented the buyer.

Back to the Wall?

The way this is going, Realogy is going to get stripped down and sold for parts:

With his back against the mats, Realogy CEO Ryan Schneider considered selling the brokerage to its chief rival: Compass.

In a statement Friday, the SoftBank-backed brokerage said Schneider even proposed a plan where the arch enemies would form a joint venture — a proposal Compass said it declined.

The statement was made in conjunction with Compass’ motion to dismiss an explosive lawsuit filed by Realogy earlier this summer. In the suit, Realogy accused Compass of illegal business practices, including “predatory” poaching and attempts at collusion.

“The motion reveals the lawsuit for what it is: an act of desperation in response to Realogy’s rapidly eroding market share,” a Compass spokesperson said in a statement Friday.

In the statement, Compass said if Realogy’s suit is not dismissed, Compass intends to file counterclaims against the New Jersey-based conglomerate, the parent company of the Corcoran Group and Coldwell Banker.

Link to Full Article

Del Mar Frontage

A brief look at Jenny Craig’s oceanfront house built in 1980 on 0.82-acres in Del Mar. It sold for $22 million, which is the highest sale in SD County this year:

It is one of only ten lots that go from Camino Del Mar to the sand – how many chances will there be?

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