The slowdown started in July, so the November sales count is surely going to reflect the impact – and it does. Sales were down 11% year-over-year:
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*S/BD = Sales per business day, which had the same -11% YoY decline.
Let’s put away the panic button for now.
We are coming down the pike now – 2018 is almost over. Let’s spend the next four weeks getting into the best music ever recorded, shall we?
This closed for $9,750,000 cash today!
If sellers were feeling a sense of panic about the market – and prices – we would be seeing more new listings hit the market.
Let’s boil it down to one simple comparison.
Are there more listings than usual coming to market?
NSDCC Listings, November
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I wouldn’t be too concerned about the median list price being lower. The list prices don’t mean much, and if it weren’t for an extra 13 lower-end listings then the 2018 median LP would have matched last year’s.
More listings, longer market times, and higher failure rates are in our future – and we can handle it!
There have already been ten listings from last month close escrow – five were sold off-market – and another 54 are pending, so somebody’s buying something. Here are three examples:
1. This 2-br house sold for $1,400,000 in March, 2018, and then was advertised as a Coming Soon for $1,695,000. It closed for $1,650,000 a month ago:
Link to Listing2. Amy and Susan sold this CV house for $51,000 over list, and closed this week:
Link to Listing3. This Cardiff house backs to the freeway but it does have ocean view – it just closed this week for $1,950,000, which was above the high-end of the range:
Link to ListingHere is the sales history of the same house:
If sales dropped 20%, we’d still have 80%!
This company was mentioned as a favorite of Compass agents, and this video gives a brief sampling of their products. It’s incredible what they can do!
Virtual staging improves the buyer’s first impression of an online listing, but there will be some natural letdown when they get to the home and find it’s not exactly what they thought.
But you have to get them there to have a shot at selling:
When moving, younger singles, couples, and families tend to stay in their same area, while seniors are more likely to be leaving town.
From our friends at JBREC:
Link to Article
BIG PANORAMIC OCEAN VIEWS!!! This beautiful property has just gone through a complete remodel and all changes were fully permitted. Features that were added during the remodel are: kitchen and downstairs reconfiguration that produced an open living floorplan the addition of a 3rd bathroom, a brand new 520sf deck that allows sit down ocean views and plenty of room for entertaining, new roof, new plumbing, new electrical, new dual zone HVAC and new siding. 10-year warranty on remodel too – wow!
1720 Burgundy, Encinitas
Sold for $1,200,000.
Tom’s house in South Oceanside was one of the homes that was picked up in that market surge about a month ago. The weather was ideal, rates were rising, there was a bit of a lull before the holidays, and we compared favorably to the other houses for sale nearby. When another market-surge happens, let’s see if we can determine the cause (hopefully there will be others!).
The two others that went pending the same week didn’t fare as well.
These demonstrate how the market has changed.
Previously, the first house would have had more interest, and owner/agents would have been more patient about working the price higher.
In the second example, buyers would have been more likely to put up with some mis-direction, but there is zero tolerance now.
We had Tom’s house listed for $989,000, and we closed at $975,000.
Get Good Help!
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Realtors to give their clients: https://www.mycentriq.com/realtors/
The more I study our local statistics, the less worried I get about 2019 – at least as far as how we compare today to previous years.
If the current active inventory was a bloated number that far exceeded previous years, there would be more concern, but we’re right in there – and last year was an anomaly.
The avg. number of NSDCC active listings for the first week of December is 859:
NSDCC Stats, First Week of December
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Obviously, the high-end is where concern should be, but here’s an example of how unpredictable the market is.
Rancho Pacifica is the high-end gated community between Carmel Valley and Fairbanks Ranch full of custom homes built mostly in the 200-2007 era. If you like Tuscan, you will love RP!
There have only been two sales this year over $4,000,000 in RP, yet look what happened last month. Three listings in the high-$5,000,000s went pending in November – two of them last week (click to enlarge):
Next year we should have more selection, and less predictability than ever!
Are you looking for an experienced agent to help you buy or sell a home?
Contact Jim the Realtor!
CA DRE #01527365, CA DRE #00873197
