The more I study our local statistics, the less worried I get about 2019 – at least as far as how we compare today to previous years.
If the current active inventory was a bloated number that far exceeded previous years, there would be more concern, but we’re right in there – and last year was an anomaly.
The avg. number of NSDCC active listings for the first week of December is 859:
NSDCC Stats, First Week of December
Year |
New Listings |
New Pendings |
Total Active Inventory of Detached-Homes |
2013 |
25 |
34 |
870 |
2014 |
47 |
37 |
923 |
2015 |
57 |
42 |
865 |
2016 |
86 |
47 |
903 |
2017 |
45 |
39 |
700 |
2018 |
67 |
45 |
893 |
Obviously, the high-end is where concern should be, but here’s an example of how unpredictable the market is.
Rancho Pacifica is the high-end gated community between Carmel Valley and Fairbanks Ranch full of custom homes built mostly in the 200-2007 era. If you like Tuscan, you will love RP!
There have only been two sales this year over $4,000,000 in RP, yet look what happened last month. Three listings in the high-$5,000,000s went pending in November – two of them last week (click to enlarge):
Next year we should have more selection, and less predictability than ever!
The UNDER-$1,000,000 Market:
Date |
NSDCC Active Listings |
Avg. LP/sf |
Avg. DOM |
# of Pendings |
Jan 1 |
36 |
$477/sf |
51 |
58 |
Jan 8 |
35 |
$479/sf |
42 |
56 |
Jan 15 |
39 |
$469/sf |
37 |
53 |
Jan 22 |
37 |
$453/sf |
42 |
62 |
Jan 29 |
38 |
$459/sf |
35 |
64 |
Feb 5 |
41 |
$463/sf |
26 |
69 |
Feb 12 |
39 |
$461/sf |
20 |
73 |
Feb 19 |
42 |
$456/sf |
20 |
72 |
Feb 26 |
53 |
$451/sf |
20 |
81 |
Mar 5 |
47 |
$457/sf |
24 |
79 |
Mar 12 |
60 |
$434/sf |
19 |
87 |
Mar 19 |
67 |
$478/sf |
21 |
81 |
Mar 26 |
61 |
$477/sf |
23 |
86 |
Apr 2 |
50 |
$464/sf |
24 |
95 |
Apr 9 |
56 |
$471/sf |
23 |
93 |
Apr 16 |
61 |
$464/sf |
24 |
93 |
Apr 23 |
59 |
$459/sf |
25 |
96 |
Apr 30 |
61 |
$466/sf |
27 |
95 |
May 7 |
67 |
$472/sf |
20 |
89 |
May 14 |
66 |
$480/sf |
21 |
95 |
May 21 |
81 |
$474/sf |
21 |
85 |
May 28 |
83 |
$438/sf |
24 |
91 |
Jun 4 |
80 |
$442/sf |
27 |
97 |
Jun 11 |
81 |
$427/sf |
27 |
91 |
Jun 18 |
88 |
$442/sf |
29 |
78 |
Jun 25 |
93 |
$442/sf |
31 |
77 |
Jul 2 |
96 |
$443/sf |
30 |
76 |
Jul 9 |
98 |
$447/sf |
33 |
65 |
Jul 16 |
98 |
$445/sf |
34 |
78 |
Jul 23 |
97 |
$436/sf |
34 |
68 |
Jul 30 |
116 |
$433/sf |
32 |
71 |
Aug 6 |
111 |
$434/sf |
31 |
64 |
Aug 13 |
115 |
$434/sf |
34 |
64 |
Aug 20 |
110 |
$426/sf |
37 |
58 |
Aug 27 |
117 |
$430/sf |
36 |
64 |
Sep 3 |
109 |
$427/sf |
38 |
62 |
Sep 10 |
113 |
$436/sf |
36 |
61 |
Sep 17 |
117 |
$439/sf |
36 |
59 |
Sep 24 |
109 |
$440/sf |
37 |
61 |
Oct 1 |
100 |
$441/sf |
40 |
67 |
Oct 8 |
106 |
$441/sf |
40 |
66 |
Oct 15 |
112 |
$434/sf |
43 |
57 |
Oct 22 |
111 |
$426/sf |
42 |
63 |
Oct 29 |
114 |
$422/sf |
41 |
64 |
Nov 5 |
110 |
$418/sf |
44 |
58 |
Nov 12 |
115 |
$449/sf |
42 |
60 |
Nov 19 |
111 |
$449/sf |
42 |
60 |
Nov 26 |
106 |
$450/sf |
49 |
60 |
Dec 3 |
99 |
$454/sf |
47 |
56 |
The $1,000,000 – $1,500,000 Market:
Date |
NSDCC Active Listings |
Avg. LP/sf |
Avg. DOM |
# of Pendings |
Jan 1 |
91 |
$532/sf |
72 |
68 |
Jan 8 |
99 |
$551/sf |
64 |
64 |
Jan 15 |
96 |
$535/sf |
61 |
75 |
Jan 22 |
107 |
$515/sf |
63 |
82 |
Jan 29 |
108 |
$512/sf |
57 |
91 |
Feb 5 |
110 |
$518/sf |
49 |
100 |
Feb 12 |
117 |
$487/sf |
46 |
106 |
Feb 19 |
107 |
$500/sf |
45 |
114 |
Feb 26 |
112 |
$485/sf |
46 |
117 |
Mar 5 |
111 |
$496/sf |
45 |
115 |
Mar 12 |
126 |
$475/sf |
43 |
109 |
Mar 19 |
125 |
$487/sf |
47 |
129 |
Mar 26 |
133 |
$484/sf |
47 |
124 |
Apr 2 |
139 |
$495/sf |
47 |
121 |
Apr 9 |
148 |
$485/sf |
51 |
119 |
Apr 16 |
145 |
$474/sf |
45 |
114 |
Apr 23 |
162 |
$470/sf |
43 |
117 |
Apr 30 |
162 |
$486/sf |
42 |
121 |
May 7 |
180 |
$495/sf |
40 |
117 |
May 14 |
182 |
$491/sf |
41 |
127 |
May 21 |
184 |
$475/sf |
40 |
135 |
May 28 |
188 |
$473/sf |
40 |
139 |
Jun 4 |
189 |
$469/sf |
43 |
148 |
Jun 11 |
199 |
$469/sf |
45 |
142 |
Jun 18 |
193 |
$465/sf |
44 |
143 |
Jun 25 |
211 |
$476/sf |
39 |
141 |
Jul 2 |
206 |
$483/sf |
41 |
142 |
Jul 9 |
201 |
$483/sf |
45 |
146 |
Jul 16 |
200 |
$502/sf |
44 |
145 |
Jul 23 |
217 |
$504/sf |
45 |
148 |
Jul 30 |
210 |
$493/sf |
48 |
154 |
Aug 6 |
209 |
$493/sf |
45 |
146 |
Aug 13 |
214 |
$496/sf |
44 |
147 |
Aug 20 |
205 |
$494/sf |
46 |
145 |
Aug 27 |
211 |
$493/sf |
46 |
134 |
Sep 3 |
207 |
$486/sf |
45 |
129 |
Sep 10 |
211 |
$489/sf |
47 |
125 |
Sep 17 |
194 |
$483/sf |
49 |
120 |
Sep 24 |
209 |
$476/sf |
49 |
108 |
Oct 1 |
207 |
$476/sf |
48 |
107 |
Oct 8 |
201 |
$481/sf |
48 |
110 |
Oct 15 |
203 |
$487/sf |
48 |
110 |
Oct 22 |
203 |
$492/sf |
48 |
108 |
Oct 29 |
204 |
$495/sf |
51 |
104 |
Nov 5 |
204 |
$490/sf |
53 |
98 |
Nov 12 |
198 |
$498/sf |
52 |
97 |
Nov 19 |
192 |
$498/sf |
55 |
93 |
Nov 26 |
181 |
$492/sf |
58 |
92 |
Dec 3 |
174 |
$478/sf |
57 |
93 |
The $1,500,000 – $2,000,000 Market:
Date |
NSDCC Active Listings |
Avg. LP/sf |
Avg. DOM |
# of Pendings |
Jan 1 |
84 |
$612/sf |
86 |
40 |
Jan 8 |
98 |
$612/sf |
73 |
42 |
Jan 15 |
98 |
$607/sf |
73 |
42 |
Jan 22 |
111 |
$589/sf |
63 |
42 |
Jan 29 |
120 |
$577/sf |
61 |
45 |
Feb 5 |
114 |
$586/sf |
56 |
51 |
Feb 12 |
118 |
$566/sf |
52 |
57 |
Feb 19 |
121 |
$596/sf |
53 |
64 |
Feb 26 |
122 |
$596/sf |
53 |
64 |
Mar 5 |
125 |
$593/sf |
56 |
70 |
Mar 12 |
131 |
$602/sf |
53 |
67 |
Mar 19 |
120 |
$598/sf |
58 |
74 |
Mar 26 |
121 |
$596/sf |
57 |
75 |
Apr 2 |
128 |
$593/sf |
55 |
70 |
Apr 9 |
140 |
$612/sf |
54 |
66 |
Apr 16 |
146 |
$617/sf |
50 |
67 |
Apr 23 |
149 |
$616/sf |
53 |
78 |
Apr 30 |
152 |
$605/sf |
60 |
81 |
May 7 |
157 |
$618/sf |
63 |
85 |
May 14 |
158 |
$614/sf |
63 |
87 |
May 21 |
154 |
$637/sf |
54 |
82 |
May 28 |
146 |
$633/sf |
58 |
80 |
Jun 4 |
149 |
$614/sf |
54 |
76 |
Jun 11 |
158 |
$615/sf |
50 |
83 |
Jun 18 |
164 |
$606/sf |
53 |
77 |
Jun 25 |
160 |
$606/sf |
56 |
73 |
Jul 2 |
160 |
$607/sf |
56 |
69 |
Jul 9 |
160 |
$590/sf |
63 |
65 |
Jul 16 |
160 |
$591/sf |
63 |
66 |
Jul 23 |
156 |
$587/sf |
65 |
67 |
Jul 30 |
158 |
$582/sf |
68 |
69 |
Aug 6 |
165 |
$590/sf |
59 |
70 |
Aug 13 |
166 |
$596/sf |
58 |
72 |
Aug 20 |
172 |
$608/sf |
61 |
67 |
Aug 27 |
171 |
$622/sf |
66 |
65 |
Sep 3 |
172 |
$611/sf |
67 |
64 |
Sep 10 |
176 |
$603/sf |
69 |
52 |
Sep 17 |
177 |
$613/sf |
70 |
56 |
Sep 24 |
174 |
$618/sf |
72 |
56 |
Oct 1 |
164 |
$624/sf |
73 |
57 |
Oct 8 |
169 |
$612/sf |
68 |
57 |
Oct 15 |
174 |
$612/sf |
69 |
51 |
Oct 22 |
171 |
$602/sf |
69 |
55 |
Oct 29 |
159 |
$601/sf |
73 |
57 |
Nov 5 |
158 |
$601/sf |
68 |
63 |
Nov 12 |
157 |
$605/sf |
66 |
57 |
Nov 19 |
147 |
$624/sf |
70 |
57 |
Nov 26 |
141 |
$620/sf |
74 |
53 |
Dec 3 |
131 |
$611/sf |
76 |
53 |
The $2,000,000+ Market:
Date |
NSDCC Active Listings |
Avg. LP/sf |
Avg. DOM |
# of Pendings |
Jan 1 |
341 |
$1,021/sf |
127 |
56 |
Jan 8 |
356 |
$1,007/sf |
123 |
49 |
Jan 15 |
370 |
$991/sf |
115 |
48 |
Jan 22 |
375 |
$992/sf |
110 |
47 |
Jan 29 |
384 |
$1,005/sf |
109 |
56 |
Feb 5 |
387 |
$1,005/sf |
111 |
56 |
Feb 12 |
379 |
$1,004/sf |
107 |
63 |
Feb 19 |
399 |
$990/sf |
104 |
69 |
Feb 26 |
400 |
$990/sf |
101 |
75 |
Mar 5 |
398 |
$1,022/sf |
97 |
79 |
Mar 12 |
406 |
$1,017/sf |
99 |
89 |
Mar 19 |
430 |
$1,020/sf |
97 |
79 |
Mar 26 |
455 |
$0/sf |
92 |
71 |
Apr 2 |
453 |
$0/sf |
94 |
67 |
Apr 9 |
462 |
$0/sf |
94 |
66 |
Apr 16 |
473 |
$0/sf |
95 |
66 |
Apr 23 |
482 |
$0/sf |
95 |
70 |
Apr 30 |
476 |
$0/sf |
94 |
74 |
May 7 |
486 |
$0/sf |
92 |
72 |
May 14 |
493 |
$0/sf |
91 |
84 |
May 21 |
510 |
$0/sf |
92 |
79 |
May 28 |
504 |
$0/sf |
95 |
90 |
Jun 4 |
488 |
$0/sf |
94 |
102 |
Jun 11 |
502 |
$0/sf |
95 |
99 |
Jun 18 |
524 |
$0/sf |
93 |
91 |
Jun 25 |
525 |
$0/sf |
92 |
78 |
Jul 2 |
516 |
$0/sf |
94 |
78 |
Jul 9 |
519 |
$0/sf |
96 |
73 |
Jul 16 |
521 |
$0/sf |
98 |
80 |
Jul 23 |
539 |
$0/sf |
98 |
82 |
Jul 30 |
550 |
$0/sf |
101 |
82 |
Aug 6 |
544 |
$0/sf |
101 |
81 |
Aug 13 |
556 |
$0/sf |
100 |
78 |
Aug 20 |
562 |
$0/sf |
100 |
76 |
Aug 27 |
552 |
$0/sf |
102 |
74 |
Sep 3 |
541 |
$0/sf |
105 |
65 |
Sep 10 |
543 |
$0/sf |
106 |
72 |
Sep 17 |
550 |
$0/sf |
106 |
78 |
Sep 24 |
545 |
$0/sf |
107 |
80 |
Oct 1 |
528 |
$0/sf |
106 |
81 |
Oct 8 |
523 |
$0/sf |
107 |
84 |
Oct 15 |
523 |
$0/sf |
107 |
82 |
Oct 22 |
528 |
$0/sf |
106 |
80 |
Oct 29 |
523 |
$0/sf |
110 |
81 |
Nov 5 |
505 |
$0/sf |
108 |
84 |
Nov 12 |
503 |
$0/sf |
107 |
80 |
Nov 19 |
500 |
$0/sf |
109 |
82 |
Nov 26 |
502 |
$0/sf |
113 |
74 |
Dec 3 |
489 |
$0/sf |
114 |
72 |
Weekly NSDCC New Listings and New Pendings
Week |
New Listings |
New Pendings |
Total Pendings |
Jan 1, 2018 |
18 |
15 |
Jan 8 |
89 |
31 |
Jan 15 |
87 |
43 |
Jan 22 |
87 |
43 |
Jan 29 |
81 |
48 |
244 |
Feb 5 |
77 |
53 |
262 |
Feb 12 |
74 |
53 |
280 |
Feb 19 |
89 |
55 |
295 |
Feb 26 |
87 |
57 |
318 |
Mar 5 |
84 |
62 |
328 |
Mar 12 |
107 |
61 |
339 |
Mar 19 |
88 |
59 |
350 |
Mar 26 |
99 |
55 |
347 |
Apr 2 |
87 |
66 |
346 |
Apr 9 |
106 |
58 |
336 |
Apr 16 |
98 |
54 |
331 |
Apr 23 |
108 |
67 |
353 |
Apr 30 |
98 |
70 |
362 |
May 7 |
138 |
68 |
355 |
May 14 |
99 |
78 |
386 |
May 21 |
115 |
63 |
369 |
May 28 |
92 |
84 |
387 |
Jun 4 |
91 |
77 |
410 |
Jun 11 |
100 |
56 |
401 |
Jun 18 |
103 |
54 |
376 |
Jun 25 |
105 |
54 |
358 |
Jul 2 |
83 |
78 |
361 |
Jul 9 |
74 |
50 |
342 |
Jul 16 |
109 |
83 |
361 |
Jul 23 |
101 |
54 |
357 |
Jul 30 |
97 |
67 |
364 |
Aug 6 |
101 |
60 |
349 |
Aug 13 |
103 |
54 |
350 |
Aug 20 |
89 |
58 |
334 |
Aug 27 |
83 |
46 |
325 |
Sep 3 |
80 |
59 |
312 |
Sep 10 |
83 |
46 |
302 |
Sep 17 |
91 |
53 |
305 |
Sep 24 |
85 |
41 |
296 |
Oct 1 |
95 |
47 |
302 |
Oct 8 |
93 |
55 |
307 |
Oct 15 |
84 |
40 |
291 |
Oct 22 |
101 |
51 |
298 |
Oct 29 |
69 |
55 |
299 |
Nov 5 |
75 |
49 |
293 |
Nov 12 |
82 |
43 |
284 |
Nov 19 |
59 |
42 |
282 |
Nov 26 |
33 |
27 |
270 |
Dec 3 |
67 |
45 |
264 |
Jim is a long-time local realtor who comments daily here on his blog, bubbleinfo.com which began in September, 2005. Stick around!