The End is Near

by | Nov 9, 2018 | Jim's Take on the Market, Listing Agent Practices, Realtor, Realtors Talking Shop, Why You Should List With Jim | 1 comment

click on image for their youtube video

Our broker-cooperation model of sharing listings though the MLS has been the lifeblood of selling homes since the early 1960s.  But it is breaking down right before our eyes.

It’s not going to happen all at once, or even happen out in the open.  Instead, the sharing of listings through the MLS will just quietly go away.

Whether it is the emergence of the PLS, or brokerages developing their own Coming Soon program, or individual agents doing off-market sales out of sight, the sharing of listings is doomed – even though it is what’s best for consumers and agents alike.

Can we just admit it, and carry on like the commercial brokers do?

Everybody for themselves!

The first thing to do is to stop the automatic listing feeds to Zillow/Trulia, and make it broker-optional, which is what’s happening in Las Vegas.

Agents may choose to upload their MLS listings to Zillow and other portals, or maybe not.  But what about Redfin and other brokerages who get their listings directly from the MLS?  Once agents see the benefits of eliminating portals, why would they bother with the MLS at all?

Maybe agents with a hot new listing will just wait a few days or weeks to see if they can find their own buyer first.  Or maybe another agent in the office might have someone?  We already see this happening every day.

The MLS will be the marketplace of last resort.

We should embrace this change, and tell consumers that they have to go to each company’s website – or even each individual agent’s website – to find the hot new buys.  At least they would know the honest truth!

I’m convinced that industry players don’t see this coming.  They don’t see what happens (or they look the other way) when listing distribution is left in the hands of the listing agents themselves.

Yes, thank you for giving us the ability to choose which platforms to use to market our listings – I appreciate having choices. But when you take the automation away, and make it a manual choice for each listing, agents will find it hard to resist the temptation to limit with whom they share their listings.

Very Brady

by | Nov 8, 2018 | Jim's Take on the Market, Remodel Projects

There’s something fabulously far-out happening at HGTV. Maybe you’ve heard the rumblings. The network has purchased one of the most universally recognized homes in America — the ‘Brady Bunch’ house — and plans are underway to restore it to its full, resplendent, unabashedly ‘70s grandeur.

So, here’s the story. (Surely you didn’t think we’d pass up the opportunity to use that line.) Back in August, HGTV officially became the proud new owners of that quintessentially suburban split-level ranch seen in virtually every episode of The Brady Bunch. And you can rest assured that, with its penchant for magical, mind-blowing home makeovers, the network has some very special things in mind for this particular home transformation.

It’s all part of — and will be documented in — a new series, A Very Brady Renovation (w.t.), scheduled to air on HGTV in September of 2019. And we suspect that even the most ardent Brady Bunch enthusiasts and purists will not be disappointed.

As one of the biggest programming events that HGTV has ever undertaken, the high-profile renovation will feature additional celebrity guests and drop-bys throughout the course of production. Already stirring up social media buzz from fans and A-listers alike, the upcoming series will showcase the famous house as it undergoes a full-blown ‘70s-inspired rehab with input from some of HGTV’s most recognized design talent.

“What’s so exciting about this project is that we are creating one of the most iconic homes from many of our viewers’ childhoods,” said Loren Ruch, senior vice president, HGTV programming and partnerships. “It will be the first time in history that the house from all of our memories will be created in a real brick-and-mortar location. It is certain to be a trip down memory lane.”

Link to Full Article

The ‘Rancho’ Effect

by | Nov 8, 2018 | Encinitas, Jim's Take on the Market, Listing Agent Practices, Market Conditions, Rancho Santa Fe | 1 comment

People are feeling a ‘change’ in the market, and wonder what will happen. The rapid escalation of prices has turned real estate into a rich man’s game – and you need serious horsepower to participate!

As the rest of North San Diego County’s coastal housing market feels the ‘Rancho’ effect, we will see more listings coming to market, listings taking longer to sell, and bigger gaps between list prices and sales prices.

In the surrounding lower-priced areas, the action has been much faster – we’re used to the quality homes selling in the first week or two. Let’s compare RSF to Encinitas to demonstrate what we can expect from now on:

Category
Encinitas
Rancho Santa Fe
Population
63,184
3,117
Active Listings
134
172
October Solds
48
23
Actives/Solds
2.8
7.5
Oct Average DOM
40
73
Oct Average SP:LP
95%
87%

We’ll have more homes on the market, slower market times, and bigger gaps between the list prices and sales prices. It’s how they do it in the Ranch!

Two Out Of Five, For Now

by | Nov 7, 2018 | Jim's Take on the Market, Local Government, Tax Reform, Why You Should List With Jim

This is a real estate blog, not political, but legislation gets passed that affects real estate decision-making.

Here is what the HW said we can expect from the new HofR:

https://www.housingwire.com/articles/47337-mba-lobbyist-heres-what-a-democrat-led-house-means-to-us

But let’s go back to the tax reform passed in December.

Nobody has brought this up yet, so I’m just speculating.

The original proposal was to change the 2-out-of-5-year residency requirement to five out of the last eight years in order to get up to $500,000 tax-free profit.

This provision was conceded, and all the talk centered around the lowering of the MID and the limits on the SALT deductions.

But when the final bill was passed, they didn’t change the residency requirement to the five-out-of-eight version.  It is still the two-out-of-five requirement today.

If the Democrat-led House of Representatives decides to re-visit the tax reform, there will be a lot of yelling and screaming.  But if they cut deals in the end to pacify everyone, it’s the five-out-of-eight requirement could be one of the concessions – because there wasn’t any resistance to the change last time.

It won’t matter to long-time homeowners, but for those who purchased in the last 2-3 years and were thinking of moving up or out with tax-free profit, this could hamper the plan.

Thinking of selling now, just in case?  Contact Jim the Realtor!

Prop 5 Defeated

by | Nov 7, 2018 | Jim's Take on the Market, Local Government | 6 comments

Prop 5, the project of the California Association of Realtors, was soundly defeated – but it won’t be the last time we hear about the issue.  The supporters only spent half the money raised:

California voters have rejected a ballot measure to expand a property tax break for older homeowners who move, sparing schools and local governments a major revenue loss.

With 5 million ballots counted early Wednesday, Proposition 5 was behind 57 percent to 43 percent.

Under current law, seniors and near-seniors can transfer tax assessments if their new homes are worth the same or less than the ones they sell, and they can only do it only once. Current law also limits out-of-county transfers.

Proposition 5, backed by the California Association of Realtors, would have allowed over-55 homeowners to transfer their assessments to any new home — no matter what it costs — anywhere in the state and as many times as they wish.

It was a low-key campaign with high stakes.

“Today’s decisive defeat sends a strong message to the California Association of Realtors that voters won’t tolerate self-interested initiatives that attack the critical local services that strengthen our communities,” Graham Knaus, executive director of the California State Association of Counties, one of the main backers of the No on Prop 5 campaign, said late Tuesday.

The Legislative Analyst’s Office concluded that schools and local governments would each probably lose more than $100 million in property tax revenue a year initially and that, over time, those losses would reach about $1 billion a year for each. About 85,000 homeowners over 55 who move every year without the tax break would pay much less.

Current law requires the state to provide more funding to most schools to cover property tax losses. Not so for local governments.

Supporters said passage would end a “moving penalty” on older people and encourage more to sell, helping alleviate California’s housing shortage. The Legislative Analyst’s Office estimated home sales would increase by tens of thousands a year.

The Realtors funded a consultant’s report that contended Proposition 5 would have much less impact on state and local governments, resulting in annual losses of $120 million to annual gains of $200 million.

Opponents challenged the assertion that Proposition 5 would spur construction and warned about a hit to public services.

As a result of Proposition 13 passed in 1978, a home is typically taxed at 1.1 percent of the purchase price and increases no more than 2 percent a year. Prices have risen much more, sticking many homeowners with much higher taxes when they move.

Supporters raised $13.2 million as of Oct. 23, mostly from the Realtors, whose benefit from sales commissions. But the campaign only spent about half of what it raised and didn’t engage in television advertising or direct mailers.

Opponents raised $2.8 million, largely from the Service Employees International Union and California Teachers Association.

The Realtors recently filed notice with authorities that it would try again on the November 2020 ballot if Tuesday’s measure failed. Chris Carlisle, its legislative advocate, said it was “just to signal to our opponent we are not going away. If we lose this time, we will be back in 2020.”

https://ktla.com/2018/11/07/prop-5-california-rejects-measure-to-expand-property-tax-break-for-seniors/

If you are thinking of moving and want to go where the political climate is suitable for you, here’s how the country stacks up today (click to enlarge):

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