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San Diego Case-Shiller Index, June

Another new record!  But we are cruising into Plateau City. From cnbc.com:

Homebuyers are pulling back, and prices are finally following.

Home prices are still rising, but the gains are shrinking. In June, prices nationally rose 6.2 percent year over year, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices. That is down from the 6.4 percent annual gain in May.

Home prices in the nation’s 10 largest housing markets rose 6 percent annually, down from 6.2 percent in the previous month. In the 20 largest markets, prices were up 6.3 percent, down from 6.5 percent in May.

“Even as home prices keep climbing, we are seeing signs that growth is easing in the housing market,” said David Blitzer, managing director and chairman of the index committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices, in a release. “Sales of both new and existing homes are roughly flat over the last six months amidst news stories of an increase in the number of homes for sale in some markets.”

San Diego Non-Seasonally-Adjusted CSI changes:

January ’17
231.21
+0.8%
+5.7%
February
233.31
+0.9%
+6.5%
March
235.61
+1.0%
+6.4%
April
237.48
+0.8%
+6.6%
May
239.84
+1.0%
+6.5%
June
241.96
+0.9%
+7.0%
Jul
243.48
+0.6%
+7.1%
Aug
245.55
+0.9%
+7.8%
Sept
246.61
+0.5%
+8.2%
Oct
246.58
+0.0%
+8.1%
Nov
245.74
-0.3%
+7.4%
Dec
246.29
+0.2%
+7.4%
January ’18
248.16
+0.8%
+7.3%
February
250.91
+1.1%
+7.5%
March
253.41
+1.0%
+7.6%
April
255.81
+0.9%
+7.7%
May
257.46
+0.6%
+7.3%
Jun
258.69
+0.5%
+6.9%

The previous peak was 250.34 in November, 2005. We are 3% above that now.  We can probably expect the SDCSI to cool down in the second half of the year, just like it did the last two years!

Let’s note that in 4Q17, the cumulative change for the index was -0.1%.

Inventory Watch

There are 117 NSDCC houses for sale listed under $1,000,000 today, which is the highest count of the year – even though the average cost-per-sf is near the low of the year ($430/sf).  But the rest of the market is holding up, based on the average cost-per-sf of the active listings:

The MLS doesn’t publish the stats for the Above-$2M market for some reason.

In the other three categories, the number of houses for sale are at, or near, their highs for the year, which can be expected for the end of summer.  The new-pendings are slowing down, which is normal too for this time of year:

(more…)

Saturday’s Open House Report

Over 100 people attended my open-house on Saturday, which goes to show you that the market is alive and well if you can get the right combination of house condition and price.

I don’t worry about being under-priced, because I know that my method of maximizing the turnout at an open-house extravaganza will ensure that we will find top dollar. In fact, I prefer to have dozens of people mingling around at the same time, putting the fear of loss into each attendee.

Because I am willing to give each buyer and agent a fair crack at buying the house, the process naturally evolves into a slow-motion auction. I have two written offers in hand, and hopefully more to come – but we won’t wait around for days or weeks to pick a winner because buyers cool off quickly.

Here’s a tour of what went right:

Here is the regular tour of the whole house:

https://youtu.be/bGB-h9RSgk4

The Zillow link to the listing:

Link to Listing

We’ll be there again today, 12-3pm!

Sorrento Valley on Canyon – SOLD

For those who work in Sorrento Valley and always wanted the convenience of living close – but Carmel Valley was always more than you wanted to spend – then this house might be for you!

Sold by Jim for $661,000 – over list price!

Sought-after Summerset Court home conveniently located on the edge of Sorrento Valley where you can walk/bike to Qualcomm and Green Flash Brewery! Remodeled kitchen with quartz counters and new appliances, open floorplan, vaulted ceilings, and dual-pane windows/doors. Garage has epoxy floor and storage cabinets too, and no Mello-Roos! Bring your lawnmower for the extra-large grass backyard in a VERY quiet neighborhood overlooking the canyon – great value!

List price is $649,000.  Zestimate is $694,235!

Open house 12-3pm Saturday and Sunday August 25 & 26.

https://www.zillow.com/homes/10651-Glendover,-SAN-DIEGO-California_rb/

San Diego #2

We have dispatched the lightweights around the Bay Area and have now passed those pesky VenCo guys, so only one more town in our way – Los Angeles!

We can do this!  Keep being less-affordable San Diego!

The NAR didn’t list the criteria they used to create this graphic, so I’m not sure what we need to do to win, except tell your friends and family to move to Ohio or Scranton, PA?

But seriously. We’re America’s Finest City (though New York City is in the running – wow!). Shouldn’t more rich people be moving here to retire?  And fewer retirees be willing to leave?

In a downturn, our housing market could survive better than other cities just because of the retiree influence.

NSDCC Sales, August First Half

We saw the NSDCC sales in May and June be 20% fewer than they were in 2017. We had 11 more sales in July this year, compared to July, 2017, but there was one extra day in 2018.

How are we doing so far in August? Can we just hang close to the mean this month, have a decent September, and cruise into the holidays?

NSDCC Detached-Home Sales, August 1-15

Year
# of Sales
Avg. $$/sf
Median SP
Median DOM
2014
133
$478/sf
$1,060,000
24
2015
133
$460/sf
$1,050,000
17
2016
115
$480/sf
$1,169,000
17
2017
138
$547/sf
$1,282,500
25
2018
125
$539/sf
$1,300,000
22

If sales stay within 10% of the previous year, we should be fine. We’re looking for disaster signs, not just the usual bouncing around (see previous years).

Sorrento Valley East $649,000

For those who work in Sorrento Valley and always wanted the convenience of living close – but Carmel Valley was always more than you wanted to spend – then you may want to consider my new listing!

Sought-after Summerset Court home conveniently located on the edge of Sorrento Valley where you can walk/bike to Qualcomm and Green Flash Brewery! Remodeled kitchen with quartz counters and new appliances, open floorplan, vaulted ceilings, and dual-pane windows/doors. Garage has epoxy floor and storage cabinets too, and no Mello-Roos! Bring your lawnmower for the extra-large grass backyard in a VERY quiet neighborhood overlooking the canyon – great value!

List price is $649,000.  Zestimate is $694,235!

Open house 12-3pm Saturday and Sunday August 25 & 26.

https://www.zillow.com/homes/10651-Glendover,-SAN-DIEGO-California_rb/

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