NSDCC Spring Kick 2018

Though the number of pendings has been lower recently, the closed sales are about the same as last year. Buyers are probably more reluctant to cancel a sale once in escrow?

NSDCC Action Between Jan 1st and April 10th

Year
# of Closed Sales
# of New Listings
CS/NL
% of Sales Over $1M
2013
765
1,481
52%
40%
2014
678
1,408
48%
51%
2015
730
1,445
51%
58%
2016
639
1,550
41%
58%
2017
648
1,368
47%
61%
2018
653
1,371
48%
73%

Almost three quarters of the sales are over $1,000,000 now!

Trendy Tuesday – Organizing a Garage

UGH. The garage is the classic place to put random stuff that you can’t find a designated spot for – at least for me and my family. LOL. A lot of people use their garage more as a free storage unit instead of a place to park your cars.

With that being said, it’s probably time to clean up that storage unit attached to your home! There are many different ideas on how to organize a garage but here are some of my favorites!

1. Keep or Throw Out – First and foremost, go through your entire garage and decide if you should keep it or throw out/donate to charity. A good question to ask yourself is “Have I used this in the past 2 years?”

2. Visibility + Accessibility – Items that are used the most should be kept at eye level or below. Christmas and Halloween decorations can be stored high because obviously, you only use those once a year.ign: justify;”>

3. Shelving, Drawers, and Hooks – About 80% of your items can be stored on shelves. The other 20% can be stored on hooks such as lawn equipment. You will most likely need a combination of shelves, drawers, and hooks. Here are some items you can buy to be more organized!

https://www.containerstore.com/s/shelving/shop-by-area-of-the-home/garage/intermetro-basket-shelf-solution/123d?productId=10016816

https://www.containerstore.com/s/garage/storage-drawers-bins/platinum-elfa-mesh-garage-drawers/12d?productId=10009307

https://www.containerstore.com/s/garage/lawn-garden/elfa-utility-lawn-equipment-hook/12d?productId=10023233

4. Hidden storage areas – If you’re working with limited space, think vertically! There is such a wide variety of door/wall racks you can buy these days. These are great too if you have a “no shoes allowed in the house” policy.

https://www.containerstore.com/s/elfa/best-selling-solutions/door-wall-racks/platinum-elfa-utility-mesh-gift-packaging-door-wall-rack/123d?productId=11001388

Here is one for shoes –

https://www.containerstore.com/s/elfa/best-selling-solutions/door-wall-racks/elfa-utility-shoe-rack-door-wall-rack/123d?productId=11008615

5. Bins for Small Parts – There are always random screws and nails rolling around on shelves and floors. Get smaller bins for those smaller parts! If you really want to be OCD, you’ll label those bins too!

https://www.containerstore.com/s/garage/parts-boxes/modular-flip-out-bins/12d?productId=10025107

6. Sports Equipment – This just needs a separate area to itself because there is always so much equipment! A steel basket is perfect for all your basketballs!

https://www.containerstore.com/s/garage/sports-bike-storage/iris-white-steel-toy-storage-barrel/12d?productId=10000536

This is a great piece for storing all sorts of equipment like hockey sticks and baseball bats!

https://www.containerstore.com/s/garage/sports-bike-storage/heavy-duty-triple-storage-bin/12d?productId=10019116

7. New Cabinets – Want the max package, and add all-new cabinetry?

Happy Tuesday!

KK

San Diego Case-Shiller Index, February

The February reading of the non-seasonally-adjusted San Diego Case-Shiller index reached a new all-time high!

San Diego Non-Seasonally-Adjusted CSI changes:

January ’17
231.21
+0.8%
+5.7%
February
233.31
+0.9%
+6.5%
March
235.61
+1.0%
+6.4%
April
237.48
+0.8%
+6.6%
May
239.84
+1.0%
+6.5%
June
241.96
+0.9%
+7.0%
Jul
243.48
+0.6%
+7.1%
Aug
245.55
+0.9%
+7.8%
Sept
246.61
+0.5%
+8.2%
Oct
246.58
+0.0%
+8.1%
Nov
245.74
-0.3%
+7.4%
Dec
246.29
+0.2%
+7.4%
January ’18
248.16
+0.8%
+7.3%
February
250.91
+1.1%
+7.5%

The previous high reading was 250.34 in November, 2005.

“Year-over-year prices measured by the National index have increased continuously for the past 70 months, since May 2012. Over that time, the price increases averaged 6 percent per year,” noted David Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “With expectations for continued economic growth and further employment gains, the current run of rising prices is likely to continue.”

Mortgage Rates Hit 4-Year Highs

Sellers should pay heed to the mortgage-rate gods……and do a little better on price, just in case.  Rates will be pushing 5% before long.

From the MND:

Mortgage rates moved markedly higher today, officially leaving them at new 4-year highs.  The only other time they’ve earned that distinction this year was in February–NOT last week as all the major surveys claimed.  To be clear, they were certainly close last week, but the surveys didn’t account for some of the worst individual days in February.  Does any of this really matter?  No, not so much.  Here’s what matters:

The average lender is quoting very well-qualified borrowers with huge downpayments something north of 4.5% on conventional 30yr fixed mortgages today.  Let’s call it 4.625%.  Up until Friday, that number hadn’t been over 4.5% except for on a few of those ill-fated February days.

Also important is the message that such a move sends.  Simply put, the bond market (which underlies rates) could be telling us that it’s getting back into the same gear seen last Fall and in early 2018.  In general, that’s characterized by pervasive, relentless movement toward higher rates.  The saving grace is that the underlying causes for that movement had already hit markets to some extent in late 2016.  So it remains to be seen how much more pain will be priced into rates before more investors feel bonds make sense to own (when more investors buy bonds, rates move lower, all other things being equal).

Today’s Most Prevalent Rates (at little-to-no origination or discount points)

  • 30YR FIXED – 4.625%
  • 30YR JUMBO – 4.65%
  • FHA/VA – 4.25%-4.5%
  • 15 YEAR FIXED – 4.0%
  • 5 YEAR ARMS –  3.625%-3.875% depending on the lender

Megaflood?

We know earthquakes are a threat – what else should we consider when making real estate decisions?  Hat tip to daytrip for sending this in:

In December 1861, as a California drought was wearing into its fifth year, farmers on the West Coast were all asking for one thing for Christmas: rain. And boy did they get it.

For 43 days rain and snow fell across the state, causing rivers to surge their banks, turning the 300-mile long, 20-mile-wide Central Valley into an ice-cold inland sea. LA got 66 inches. So deep were Sacramento’s floodwaters that the capital had to be relocated to San Francisco. With a quarter of the economy underwater the state was forced into bankruptcy. Thousands of people died. It was the most violent flooding California had ever seen, and no storms have come close to topping it since.

Soil cores and climate models tell scientists that megafloods like this one have happened about once every 200 years. Which, if you’re doing the math, means the state is due.

That’s not the bad news. The bad news is that by the middle of the century, a megaflood could be striking California every couple of decades.

(more…)

Inventory Watch

The income-tax holiday is over, and the NSDCC market popped!

This week we had the most new listings, AND highest number of new pendings of the year, plus the total number of pendings went up 6.6%!

The next few weeks should be the hottest of the year – it’s prime time!

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O-hain New Homes

Close-up photo:

This new-home tract (in red circle) is due east of La Costa and behind Knightsbridge for those who know Olivenhain. These can be described as Robertson-Ranch quality on bigger secluded lots for less than twice the price. This same builder sold out the 1 Channel Island in spite of the odds so they should have a go of it here (Encinitas schools too). Green line is the old dump. Click on any of my photos for larger image.


There are nine models that range in price from $2,094,000 to $3,119,000. The base tax rate is approximately 1.05965%, plus Mello-Roos assessment of $1,430 per year. The HOA fee is $420 per month for private streets, mailboxes, fencing, and common-area landscaping.

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