Houses that have neighbors up the hill are prone to having subterranean water drainage – and with the drought conditions, it’s not as obvious until a big rain. Note the discoloration and holes in the concrete, and weeds blooming. Drywall in the living room tested ‘red’, the highest moisture level:
The fourth quarter of 2015 didn’t show any surprises – sales and pricing are rumbling along. Del Mar had a statistical pricing slump, but if you look at the median cost-per-sf ($601/sf, $627/sf, $617/sf), it helps to smooth out the bumps in a super-custom area:
| Town or Area | ||||
| Cardiff | ||||
| Carlsbad NW | ||||
| Carlsbad SE | ||||
| Carlsbad NE | ||||
| Carlsbad SW | ||||
| Carmel Vly | ||||
| Del Mar | ||||
| Encinitas | ||||
| La Jolla | ||||
| RSF | ||||
| Solana Bch |
Statistically, these markets look fine.
Good thoughts on appealing to all five senses – I especially agree with keeping the scent and music volume in check:
Staging a home for sale is all about inspiring your buyer, and their senses are the avenue by which you connect with them. French novelist Honoré de Balzac once wrote “love is the poetry of the senses,” and specifically touching on each sense when staging a home creates atmosphere that inspires just that kind of poetic love. No matter the size or style of the home, there are a whole range of small things you can do to make it more appealing to aspiring homeowners (and help you lock in a sale!) Here’s how to get started:
Read full article here:
There will still be late-reporters, but let’s review the annual NSDCC sales.
| Year | ||
| 2012 | ||
| 2013 | ||
| 2014 | ||
| 2015 |
What can we expect for sales this year?
Rates have dropped back under 4% this week, which will help. But sellers will be expecting higher prices in 2016, which will dampen the buyers’ enthusiasm.
My guess for 2016?
Rates at or below 4% = 5% fewer sales.
Rates above 4% = 10% fewer sales.
If rates get into the mid-4s, then my guess is for 25% fewer sales.
The lack of quality inventory will contribute greatly too. Buyers don’t mind paying a little more if they get something extra for it.
But we need to become accustomed to a regurgitated inventory.
It’s likely that we will continue to see sellers try to get their inflated price year after year, rather than lowering the price until it sells. Of the 88 new NSDCC listings this year, 61% of them were on the market in 4Q15. It is a higher-end phenomena too – virtually all listings over $2,000,000 were refreshed.
Our dog Bailey passed today, after a great 12.5 years. Seeing him go was tough on all of us, but especially the kids. We pulled out the old photos, and this was the favorite, from around 3 months old.
This seemed to be the appropriate song:
As the refreshed listings continue to pour onto the MLS, the calls are coming.
“Jim, let’s send in a low offer!”
These refreshed listings aren’t fooling as many people these days because the listing histories are on the front page of the portals (including realtor.com).
But sellers want to blame the holidays for not selling, and believe the new year will bring better luck! Add one more tool of deception – the listing refresh – and they have a new listing, a new year, and new excitement!!
Everyone just wants to be excited!
Well, except the buyers who just want to buy a house, not play games. But refreshed sellers and their agents will wait for weeks or months before adjusting their price – hoping there might be one more buyer left who isn’t tracking the total days on market.
Buyers: Let the ‘refreshed’ sellers go first. Wait until their next price reduction before offering – at least then you have some indication that they might be more motivated than the rest.
An open letter to Sandicor CEO Ray Ewing, and the Board of Directors:
On April 3, 2015, a message left on the Sandicor website said that the negotiations between you and Zillow had broken down, and that you’d update us as you work further on an agreement to automatically upload our listings.
It’s been NINE months – how’s that coming?
According to folks at Zillow, there has been no movement.
Nine months have gone by, and you can’t find a way to agree with Zillow? They have 400 other MLS companies that have an agreement to upload listings to Zillow – what is the problem?
In mellow, laid-back San Diego, you probably aren’t getting enough complaints to move the needle. I’m only one guy, but I think many agents can relate to these concerns:
The MLS asks every agent during a listing input whether we want it uploaded to the portals – thank you, we deserve to have that choice. But Zillow isn’t part of the group that gets the listing data!
We pay you to help us, so we can help our clients.
Will you please make the deal with Zillow to upload our listings automatically please? The listings belong to us – let each agent decide if they get uploaded automatically, not you.
Will the drought talk will die down for a few days? Maybe not….
http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/2016/jan/05/el-nino-storms-slam-drought-parched-california/
As much as 15 inches of rain could fall in the next 16 days in Northern California, with about 2 feet of snow expected in the highest points of the Sierra Nevada, said Johnny Powell, a forecaster with the National Weather Service.
In Southern California, between 2 and 3.5 inches of rain is predicted to fall across the coastal and valley areas, and up to 5 inches falling in the mountains.
How does a week of rain impact real estate sales?
It depends – but if you have to waste a week, do it early in the year!
DO’s:
DON’TS
It might be a good week for buyers and sellers to leave town for a few days!
As a new year begins, there has to be people wondering how much longer the market can stay buoyant. Even with rates staying low, home buying is out of reach for many, if not most San Diego residents, and wages don’t seem to be going up much.
Is the bubble going to pop again?
This guy has been our perpetual doomer, and is one of the only four ‘experts’ out of 108 who said that prices could go down in the next five years. He has summarized all the reasons of possible doom here:
http://mhanson.com/archives/1968
The thing he ignores is that the government is totally supportive of housing. They bailed us out last time, and it left an indelible mark.
The turning point for The Big Bailout was in 2011 when Bernanke literally told the banking industry to ‘not do anything to harm the economy’, which was code for ‘Stop Foreclosing’:
https://www.bubbleinfo.com/2014/03/03/bernanke-stopped-the-flood/
Since then, the number of foreclosures have dropped like a rock, and after Kamala passed the California Homeowners’ Bill of Rights, lenders are required to coddle defaulting homeowners for as long as possible.
The result is a very soft landing for any borrower who doesn’t feel like making their payments. The banks can stretch out any necessary foreclosure activity for months or years, and spread them around evenly so they don’t ‘harm the economy’.
If you are a potential home buyer who is concerned about future foreclosures causing home prices to drop, I hope that relieves any fears. Buy a house you can comfortably afford, and stay forever.
For those who want to check for foreclosures, see below:
People suggest that if you want more value, just go out to the ‘burbs. But how far out do you have to go to buy a new one-story house on a 1/2 acre lot with good schools in the $700,000s and $800,000s?
Pulte, California West, Shea Homes, Pardee, and Davidson all have new-home communities being built, or coming soon to the 76 corridor area between North Vista and Fallbrook:
Are you looking for an experienced agent to help you buy or sell a home?
Contact Jim the Realtor!
CA DRE #01527365, CA DRE #00873197
